Move away from agriculture, Chinese economist advises

[Azadkashmir]

i beleive only a percentage but i also belive electricity infrastructure and oil can be disturbed then good bye to automation and machine. back to the old fashion hard labour i say have a mix both worlds. emp? nuke? earth shift?.
one has to wonder if modern world, has improved the people or just building tall buildings and artificial way of life.

 

[武成王]

Some myth about CPEC in my eyes:
(1) Navy Base for China. FALSE. Gwadar Port COULD be used as a base of Navy, however, it's very hard to defend during a war between say India or other countries. It's at most a warning symbol to make India nervous. It is most likely a security guard to business, and a staging post.
(2) Energy Security for China. FALSE. China can buy fuel/gas from Russia if there's war. Russia has the potential to become the largest fuel/gas vendor, some Central Asia countries are also good alternatives, e.g. Kazakhstan.

Some vision about CPEC in my eyes:
If the projects can be implemented successfully, there will be thousands of factories built
along the corridor. Industrial chains will connect with western China, propagate into East Africa, Arabian Peninsula and Iran. Gwadar port will become logistic and business hub of subcontinent. The future potential space of India's business in these area will be dramatically suppressed.

CPEC looks a potential military threat to India, but in fact it's not, it does a business threat.
My 2 cents are over.

 

[Soldier-X]

Nawaz Sharif has already destroyed our agriculture, and making formers move away from agriculture, and poverty level rising beacuse of this,so what agriculture Chinese are talking about...
anyways , i don't get this, you must be self reliant in food, and should work on both agriculture and industry at the same time...infact we should adopt modern technology in agriculture, no need to move away from agriculture.... i smell chinese personal interests here.

 

[Sully3]

I'm not sure whether it's appropriate to put my 2 cents here, but I sincerely wish Pakistan stable and prosperous which is not only interest of Pakistan, but also aligned to China's interest, China need a stable and prosperous Pakistan. The current situation is, India is desperately, eagerly stimulating domestic industry development, if Pakistan can not catch up in some sectors, it will be a big challenge to Pakistan's future. The Kashmir issue is a LONG TERM issue, the winner will be the country which can keep stable, and keep prosperous. Kashmir will finally belong to the winner, or go independent. The title of this article apparently imply the concerns from SOME Pakistan Establishment regarding the agriculture sector which is the foundation of Pakistan economy. I know that land is private property here, landlord can rent their land to poor people,
so it's a very stable cash flow for landlords. Industry development may impact interest of landlords, landlord worry that industry will compete cheap labors with agriculture, or government will requisite land in cheap price. The truth is there're lots of redundant labors in Pakistan, these labors can be utilized to facilitate low end manufacture industry which can create lots of jobs.
Apparently Lin's suggestion is to emphasize on industry development, not emphasize on 'shift from agriculture', the title is misleading. It simply reflect the concerns from SOME people.
China is upgrading its industry sector to high end, robotics based, many cheap labors will be replaced by robotics this is a world wide trend. However, some sectors still rely heavily on cheap labors, if Pakistan can not grasp this opportunity, these factories will be relocated to Africa, or SEA countries. CPEC in my eyes is essentially a stabilizer for Pakistan's society and economy, which could help to build a decent industrial foundation for Pakistan's development,
e.g. electricity power, high way, railway, port, manufacture factories, which is experience when China opened door to the rest of world. It's a tough task for Pakistan to implement the plans, this require government's determination and hard works and people's cooperation. If China intend to earn big money from the $45 billion investment, it's better to pour into other region, e.g. SEA or Africa, not Pakistan, so it's a strategic investment, not profit driven.

good post i think most people missed the authors thinking.

he was suggesting that the Government especially Nawaz in power should look further from agriculture and shift towards an emphasise on industry. Right now the government treats agriculture sector like the back bone of the economy providing the agriculture industry with incentives and on a smaller scale tractors to farmers etc.

the author suggest providing new businesses the same incentives, soft loans, grants etc they provide to agriculture sector. Labour based industry from china makes alot of sense

 

[武成王]

They are being good businessmen here- they would want Pakistan to buy their wheat and rice- Just like USA would make their subordinates do in past-

Terrible. You should learn how to lie, at least do some basic investigation before lie. China imported 120 million tons crops in 2015. Does China need export 'food' to earn money? It's a shame that India as one of largest crops provider, there're still so many hungry people.

 

[Eminent Mainstream Media]

Terrible. You should learn how to lie, at least do some basic investigation before lie. China imported 120 million tons crops in 2015. Does China need export 'food' to earn money? It's a shame that India as one of largest crops provider, there're still so many hungry people.

Why are you losing your mind over It- I said its just business- sooner or later Pakistanis will understand- meanwhile you can keep buttering them on online forums-

 

[Mumm-Ra]

One of the thing that we overlook is the evolution of economy from labour intensive to mechanized and capital intensive is a natural phenomenon. One way or the other, we will have to modernize our agri methods due to climate changes and shortage of fresh water. If done in a planned manner, the excess labour tied up in agri sector will have to be freed and retrained to work in the light manufacturing industry. A number of incentives can be given to the farmers to invest in the infrastructure through soft loans whose replayables are tied with their crop productivity. The government/private vocational institutes can be utilized to retrain the freed up manpower to be utilized elsewhere.

 

[Jacob Martin]

It is true that advanced economies are not agrarian. However, the solution does not lie in not focusing on agriculture. Rather it lies in ensuring that so many people are not engaged in producing so little. The aim is to increase production while simultaneously shifting more of the population to secondary and tertiary sectors.

The future lies in urbanization. Unfortunately, South Asia has a lousy record in establishing and growing new cities from scratch. New Delhi, Islamabad and Chandigarh are exceptions. Most of our cities are built on sites which are thousands of years old.

 

[cocomo]

he was suggesting that the Government especially Nawaz in power should look further from agriculture and shift towards an emphasise on industry.

This is exactly what the author mean't. You can go so far with agricultural economy. CPEC and OBOR in general is China shifting its over capacity to other countries and we should be open and as the article suggested local entrepreneurs should team up with Chinese companies to setup units in Pakistan.

 

[Finer]

I disagree, we should modernize farming, and automate the process.

Not only will we get much higher yields, but we will also end up with a lot of labour which can be put into industries.

Modernizing farming is not the issue. The investment cannot be at the expense of agriculture which is the sole reason for keeping the nation alive. Last thing we need to alienate agriculture as leverage for the future which can be problematic not knowing what the future lies ahead. This is dangerous bet with no guarantee for future.

 

[Khafee]

Pakistan is gifted with Arable land. It should work at improving its agricultural processes and yields.

Food security / independence, should be part of the National security agenda, and not restricted to self reliance, but exports as well.

 

[Verve]

Agriculture should be protected but it should be part of the overall economic policy and that protection should not limit growth of other industries.

At present, we have far more than enough food for local demand but the mafia controlling the food supply is the one causing starvation through price manipulation and withholding supply for maximum gains.

Our agriculture sector is in serious need of modernisation. With the proposed move of chinese industries to Pakistan, this will add to the requirements on the agriculture sector. Example is farming of plants and flowers that are used in various non-edible products such as perfumes, oils, cosmetics, medicines etc etc. Focused and well planned incentives (plus others) should be offered on produce where supply is low, in areas where high levels of yield can be achieved.

Agriculture policy should be redesigned to:
- meet local edible consumption demand, first and foremost (with stable local prices)
- meet local non-edible industry demand
- meet export demand - edible and non-edible (based on what we can grow that is the most profitable for export, higher forex inflow)

Just to give you an example is the Malaysian palm trees agri policy.

Our agri policy should be focused and lean, right now it is far from it.

Relocation of Chinese industry and jobs is a welcome policy declaration - although it is masked as 'we should' whereas in reality 'this is going to happen folks'. Policies in CPEC are coming out in the open slowly and completely agree with posts of @Sinopakfriend and @Arsalan

 

[waz]

The most important and very first aspect of self reliance is self reliance in food. We must be able to produce enough food to feed our nation and then some, this is not an option, but a MUST.

Sound post. Pakistan needs to increase its yield per hectare before there can be any move away from an Agrarian economy. Pakistan at this point in time needs all its farmers and the bulk of resources devoted to farming otherwise the nation will face food shortages. The nation still has issues with malnutrition and food insecurity.

 

[The SC]

85 million job intensive industries are not made overnight, it will take gradually time for implementation, training and start of production.. in the mean time the agricultural sector should be modernized and set on productivity gear.. and markets for both types of goods should be explored and widened..that still lives 120 million (lets say 80 million, since 40 million might be too young for the job market and students) Pakistani free hands and brains to take care of other businesses, priorities, services and industries..
This sounds like an opportunity of a lifetime not to be misses, since this kind of opportunities tend to not repeat themselves..
The happy fact is that some influential Pakistani economic thinkers are working with their Chinese counterparts by providing data and hard facts to be put through analysis and to provide optimum solutions..
Way to go Pakistan, this is very feasible and will guarantee a very bright future for our dear Muslim brother nation.. So CEPEC after all is only the tip of the iceberg..

 

[Jacob Martin]

Sound post. Pakistan needs to increase its yield per hectare before there can be any move away from an Agrarian economy. Pakistan at this point in time needs all its farmers and the bulk of resources devoted to farming otherwise the nation will face food shortages. The nation still has issues with malnutrition and food insecurity.

While you are spot on about the need to tackle malnutrition and food insecurity, I think the way to achieve that is to de-link agricultural employment from agricultural production.

45% of Pakistani labour force is engaged in agriculture, producing about 22% of GDP. While this is any day better than India's proportions of 50% and 18% respectively, it is still abysmal by global standards. The key to food security, IMO, is to address the reasons for low productivity such as lack of scientific input, fertilizers and pesticides, limited irrigation, lack of electricity, storage, access to credit and markets, transportation, etc.
Further, the longer agriculture remains in subsistence mode, the size of land holdings will fragment even more as it gets divided between many sons - thereby making it unviable to invest in such small holdings.

Therefore, emphasis should be on these methods, coupled with getting surplus people off the land at war footing. There is infrastructure that needs to be built, factories to run and services to be provided.

In South Asia we have a rather emotional way of looking at the farmer. We respect what they do and so out of that respect we do not face up to the fact that the odds are stacked against them to such an extent that they are better off migrating to cities. Having 10 farmers produce an output that ought to be produced by 3 is simply not sustainable in the long run and will always keep them in poverty.