Move away from agriculture, Chinese economist advises

[Nike]

in my own Country, economy is much more emphasized towards industrialization in the past few decades. Sacrificing some sector (agriculture) meanwhile focusing on industries is inevitable, import in food is rising exponentially. While the capital is accumulated the gov. proposing to industrialized the agriculture sector through special law to stipulated investment in agriculture sector via farmland estates in which a few but powerful local holding companies managing thousands hundreds even million acres of farmland. They managing the farm with intensive farming methods, mechanization and industrialization is the way and the result is Indonesia lately capable to earn more rice, corns, palm oil, soy bean and less dependable on importing commodities. All the way, though the number of people engaging in agri sector is decreasing by each passing year

 

[Darth Vader]

Pakistan need to diversify its Economy , Few Examples
Places for Pakistan to Grow ,
4 Provinces of Pakistan
Punjab and Sindh Will Form the Base With Agriculutre , poultry , And Industry in Big Cities
Balochisan Natural Resources , Trade , Base For Gwadar , Solar and Wind Power .
NWFP Tourism , Natural Resources
Just basic points

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

What do people think CPEC is about other than ~$45+Billions?

It was always about enticing the offloading Chinese industries into Pakistan.

As for the agriculture remark, ~50%+ of Pakistan's labor force is in agriculture and no modern nation has such a percentage. This labor force needs to be redirected. Professor Justin Yifu Lin is encouraging Pakistan to strengthen it's economic policies towards education health/ electricity/ security/ infrastructure/ public affairs.

China is moving from a manufacturing economy towards a consumer. And that was the reasoning behind the 2016 market volatility. Factories are leaving China, it's up to Pakistan to constantly improve it's infrastructure to handle economic growth. If not Pakistan, there are other options in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Africa.

 

[Nilgiri]

India's proportions of 70% and 18% respectively

Where did you get your numbers from?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=IN-PK

 

[Mumm-Ra]

While you are spot on about the need to tackle malnutrition and food insecurity, I think the way to achieve that is to de-link agricultural employment from agricultural production.

Gaining energy, water and food security is among the chief goals of Pak vision 2025. The key performance indicator of this goals is to reduce the Reduce food insecure population from 60% to 30% so the government has some plan in the offing for agriculture. Also, farmers are being continuously persuaded to upgrade their farm infrastructure via various schemes by Punjab government to also harness solar power, although I can't be sure of any such programs being taken up by Sindh government. One thing that the government has to ensure is that the small small farmers are also upgraded with these schemes. They can be given soft loans with the government shouldering some percentage of their repayment.

In South Asia we have a rather emotional way of looking at the farmer. We respect what they do and so out of that respect we do not face up to the fact that the odds are stacked against them to such an extent that they are better off migrating to cities. Having 10 farmers produce an output that ought to be produced by 3 is simply not sustainable in the long run and will always keep them in poverty.

true, we to tend to live in the past a lot but I believe economic incentive is a great way to change the attitude of the people in the farming business. Who wouldn't want to get more production from their fields but we must also provide them with the market to sell the excess production.

 

[Jacob Martin]

Where did you get your numbers from?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=IN-PK

Corrected it. Thanks!

Gaining energy, water and food security is among the chief goals of Pak vision 2025. The key performance indicator of this goals is to reduce the Reduce food insecure population from 60% to 30% so the government has some plan in the offing for agriculture. Also, farmers are being continuously persuaded to upgrade their farm infrastructure via various schemes by Punjab government to also harness solar power, although I can't be sure of any such programs being taken up by Sindh government. One thing that the government has to ensure is that the small small farmers are also upgraded with these schemes. They can be given soft loans with the government shouldering some percentage of their repayment.


true, we to tend to live in the past a lot but I believe economic incentive is a great way to change the attitude of the people in the farming business. Who wouldn't want to get more production from their fields but we must also provide them with the market to sell the excess production.

I think that neglect of the agricultural sector is a pervasive phenomenon in South Asia. Food security is of paramount importance but here we see it as a populism issue - the fact that so many people are in agriculture means that it is a consolidated vote bank/support stream. So there has always been a vested political interest in keeping people on the land rather than explain to them that farming on ever-decreasing holdings is unviable.

This is one thing in which I am a fan of the Chinese model. They realized that it was not possible to let organic processes determine the rate of urbanization and weaning away from intensive/subsistence agriculture. So they chose to shift people en masse to new cities.

The result is that in the last ten years the value of Chinese agricultural output has increased considerably, whereas the percentage of workforce in agriculture has declined.

Of course, this is easier said than done. Unless the children of those who are farmers today do not have education and career opportunities, they will be forced to follow the path of their parents and till the land for ever-diminishing returns.

 

[Mumm-Ra]

This is one thing in which I am a fan of the Chinese model. They realized that it was not possible to let organic processes determine the rate of urbanization and weaning away from intensive/subsistence agriculture. So they chose to shift people en masse to new cities.

The result is that in the last ten years the value of Chinese agricultural output has increased considerably, whereas the percentage of workforce in agriculture has declined.

Of course, this is easier said than done. Unless the children of those who are farmers today do not have education and career opportunities, they will be forced to follow the path of their parents and till the land for ever-diminishing returns.

One huge advantage the Chinese had to pull off this plan is the single party system. Unfortunately, we do not have a federal party in the true sense of the word presently. Most of our political parties are dug deep in their respective provinces and I do not see them coming out of their shell in the next election. A party that has a popular vote in all the federating units with a bold leadership can see the big picture, form policies and implement them accordingly.

Off topic: In India's case, i do not know the ground realities but BJP has made great strides to replace the Congress as an all encompassing federal party. Not withstanding the protests on the fringes, the BJP does indeed have a chance to formulate the future of India as it sees fit. The question is, will it do so keeping the sensitivities of all the population involved.

 

[Arsalan]

Sound post. Pakistan needs to increase its yield per hectare before there can be any move away from an Agrarian economy. Pakistan at this point in time needs all its farmers and the bulk of resources devoted to farming otherwise the nation will face food shortages. The nation still has issues with malnutrition and food insecurity.

To add to it, We need some water policy and its proper implementation to support our agriculture. Today there is not enough water for the fertile lands, especially in Sindh. Proper water storage and then distribution alongside strict action against water theft is need of the hour. We need to keep our focus on agriculture, not at the cost of other industries, just like other industries are not to be prioritized at the cost of our agriculture. Need to strike a balance and then go from there. Plus I will really love some work at farmer level on high yield high return export crops. There is some excellent work done on Olive by agriculture department, Chakwal section. You can see trees with branches touching the ground under the load of the fruit they bear. There were plans to market this plant and support its plantation at farmer level along with developing small industry where these olives can be processed and there product be then distributed locally as well as internationally. While the agriculture scientists have done their job there is not much follow up on the development, not at a level it should have been. There is huge potential in this crop. Plus we have large forests of wild olives and there was research conducted for grafting of these plants so that they can produce fruit as well. Again, not much follow up after initial scientific breakthrough was achieve.

Then there are some medicine plants with very high value.

There is this sweetener plant, Stevia, a sugar substitute. Work was done on that as well, there are areas suitable for its plantation (I have a few plants at my home ). It is 150 times more sweet than sugar and have almost no effect on blood sugar so it is ideal for sugar patients. Although there was work done on research level it was never followed up with the farmers as to promote its plantation. (We need to support relevant industry as well as only then the farmers will know that there is a place where they can sale there crop, otherwise they are happy producing potatoes)

In short, Pakistan is blessed with a wide range of climate and we should take full advantage of it, producing the main crops like wheat, cotton, sugarcane and vegetables as well as high value export potential crops like olives, fruits, stevia and medical value plants.

 

[Nilgiri]

high value export potential crops like olives

Buddy, are there currently olive trees in Pakistan anywhere? Just interested. A very nice tree to have in many ecosystems.

 

[Mumm-Ra]

Buddy, are there currently olive trees in Pakistan anywhere? Just interested. A very nice tree to have in many ecosystems.

There was a project on it. I do not know what the current status of the project though.
http://www.parc.gov.pk/index.php/en/olive-project-of-olive-promotion

 

[Jacob Martin]

One huge advantage the Chinese had to pull off this plan is the single party system. Unfortunately, we do not have a federal party in the true sense of the word presently. Most of our political parties are dug deep in their respective provinces and I do not see them coming out of their shell in the next election. A party that has a popular vote in all the federating units with a bold leadership can see the big picture, form policies and implement them accordingly.

Off topic: In India's case, i do not know the ground realities but BJP has made great strides to replace the Congress as an all encompassing federal party. Not withstanding the protests on the fringes, the BJP does indeed have a chance to formulate the future of India as it sees fit. The question is, will it do so keeping the sensitivities of all the population involved.

Yeah, one-party rule is a tricky one isn't it? Damned if you do and damned if you don't. There has certainly been displacement and misery as a result of China's urbanization policy but in the long run it's a huge step forward. We have not shown that resolve, and even when we do show it, the results are dubious.

About BJP as the dominant party, untill recently I was apolitical in my views, having discounted all politicians as thieves and hooligans. There are, however, certain recent developments that have disturbed me about the way the country is being run. I hope a clear picture emerges by 2019, so that people can make an informed decision about re-electing the government rather than based on misinformation, lies and rhetoric.

About agriculture, that has traditionally been the Congress' strength - rural voters. In fact NDA I under AB Vajpayee was undone by rural disillusionment more than anything else - they didn't buy into the India Shining campaign. Unfortunately the entire exercise is reduced to gimmickry - asking for loan waivers, free electricity, etc. So recently the new CM of UP announced a loan waiver for farmers and even Rahul Gandhi was pleased as it is his platform as well.

Just wish we could find a more comprehensive agricultural policy rather than ad-hoc populist measures.

 

[Arsalan]

Buddy, are there currently olive trees in Pakistan anywhere? Just interested. A very nice tree to have in many ecosystems.

i have a few in our garden at the factory i am part of

Yes, they are being planted commercially as well but at a small scale. Plus we have FORESTS for wild olives all over the margalla hills (Islamabad) and elsewhere.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Agriculture should be protected but it should be part of the overall economic policy and that protection should not limit growth of other industries.

At present, we have far more than enough food for local demand but the mafia controlling the food supply is the one causing starvation through price manipulation and withholding supply for maximum gains.

Our agriculture sector is in serious need of modernisation. With the proposed move of chinese industries to Pakistan, this will add to the requirements on the agriculture sector. Example is farming of plants and flowers that are used in various non-edible products such as perfumes, oils, cosmetics, medicines etc etc. Focused and well planned incentives (plus others) should be offered on produce where supply is low, in areas where high levels of yield can be achieved.

Agriculture policy should be redesigned to:
- meet local edible consumption demand, first and foremost (with stable local prices)
- meet local non-edible industry demand
- meet export demand - edible and non-edible (based on what we can grow that is the most profitable for export, higher forex inflow)

Just to give you an example is the Malaysian palm trees agri policy.

Our agri policy should be focused and lean, right now it is far from it.

Relocation of Chinese industry and jobs is a welcome policy declaration - although it is masked as 'we should' whereas in reality 'this is going to happen folks'. Policies in CPEC are coming out in the open slowly and completely agree with posts of @Sinopakfriend and @Arsalan

My dear Pak Friend,

As I mentioned in earlier post in this thread... why would China invest billions for a road, a port and some powerplants?

Why would your army go all the way to protect it with all its might?

Why are there fiberglass networks linking China and Pak?

And how could CPEC be gamechanger/fate-changer for your good Pak?

Why would so many countries, UK, EU, Russia and CA/ME are interested in joining CPEC?

For a road, a port or some powerplants...? Nah, CPEC is a framework as I have stated many a time.

Regarding your Agri sector...you have been breadbasket of Asia and then the neglect happened and you began importing farm produce even from india. Also population explosion...not a good thing.

You need Water Security more than Food Security!


Throughout the Ages your civlisation has been producing abundent food...how else you could have managed to create Civlisations which go at least 10000+ years back in immemerable times...

I stand by my earlier comment: Pak needs to become Agro+Industrial Society.

Please, see the market I mentioned before... see it valuation. ME i.e GCC can be your exclusive market as well but the quality of produce, storage and transprotation has to be world class.

Think Organic.... it has bigger margin and more staying power. Great for your soil and environment. No GMO!


That the Chinese factories will re-locate to Pak and some other states is a given.
It is upto your government and your business/industry people to capture this.
If they don't then they have only themselves to blame.

But what is most critical here is a detailed Agro-Industrial 2.0 vision and detailed policy ouputs.

Please, also see it is not going to be just walk in the park for you.

Expect fifth column sobotage, foreign sponsored terrorism, diplomatic pressure ect. to keep throwing nails on the road.

What is critical is a wholistic gameplan/policy which will make sure that after 20/30 years period you land in upper bracket of middle income countries.

I foresee at least a 3-4 €Trillion economy with good industrial base for both heavy industry and consumer related.

To become a fully developed country you have to work for it...if it were upto your political class then perhaps 2200s.

You need a Professional Class!

Learn from the Chinese Model of Development. The Chinese Political class takes care of social and diplomatic things and their Professional Class develops and implements policies.

 

[Mumm-Ra]

Just wish we could find a more comprehensive agricultural policy rather than ad-hoc populist measures.

All we can do is propose solutions and hope that politicians get their act together.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Where did you get your numbers from?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=IN-PK

Very useful link, thanks! Agriculture in China only employs about 2% of the population, and yet output is largest in the world by far (approx $1 trillion per year, almost five times of US). Fundamental food security is not a problem, rising and diversifying demands from urban middle class can be satisfied by imports. International trade is always necessary, no nation produces better salmon than Norway, better avocado than Mexico.

I agree with the OP, from an employment perspective Pakistan should move workforce into industrial and services sectors. That doesn't mean agriculture is no longer important, rather it means tech and mechanization can increase productivity, basic food security is always a must.