ashok mourya
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Foreign policy has evolved as one of the important pillars of Modi government. This includes cementing ties with South Asian states on the basis of practicing ‘non-reciprocity’; strengthening solidarity in the Indian ocean rim with a purposeful engagement under ‘Sagar Mala’; instant diplomatic efforts in case of crisis as like in Yemen and Nepal; realizing the potential of vibrant Indian diaspora abroad; putting trade and commerce on upfront; personal rapport with world’s top leaders and building closer ties with major world powers under the ‘realist political lines’. All these have found reflections in the high level foreign policy dynamism of India under Prime Minister Modi for past one year.
Despite all these efforts, forwarding relation between India and China has been a much discussed subject with both optimism and skepticism. The subject went through a columnar review with a reference of India vis-a-vis China as a ‘potential nuisance’ or a ‘potential partner’. However, the ‘sentimental observations’ must not come in way to realize the ‘delicacy of mutual relations’ between both marked by a long standing border dispute, rising trade deficit and low level of civil society interactions among both.
Despite comfortable presence of Indian students in China and low quality but large sum of trade imports from China, the larger Indian public opinion still casts China with a ‘sense of unease’ and as a ‘potential threat’. The nature of relation remains, more or less, kind of a ‘competitive engagement’.
In run up to these events, the upcoming visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China is crucial for three reasons. Firstly, the importance both countries attach to each other is reflected with a ‘sense of optimism’ that both the sides have shown in backdrop of the visit. Modi announced his visit on China’s social networking site Weibo with a message, “Hello China! Looking forward to interacting with Chinese friends through Weibo,” writing in Chinese Mandarin. Probably, one key objective must be to dilute ‘language barrier’ between both the countries so as to promote enhanced access to each other’s concerns and civil society interactions.
Later, in his interview to Time magazine, he said, both countries are showing “great maturity and a commitment to economic cooperation.” The officers on both the sides of the LAC too discussed to avoid any confusion during the visit to convey the sense of positivism at large. China, too, looked up to the visit as a “great opportunity” to cement bilateral relationship and take it to a new high. The developments suggest an ‘aspirational instincts’ on both sides to make the visit a success.
Secondly, ‘nature of economic relations’ and ‘rising trade deficit’ between both caused confusion in bilateral relations. The issue remains largely non-addressed even after promises made during Xi Jinping’s earlier visit to India.
India will seek greater market access and removal of non-tariff barriers to bridge the widening trade deficit with China during Modi’s visit. It appears that trade issues would be on ‘top of the agenda’ as India would push aggressively for its demands and related concerns. The current trade deficit is about USD 37 billion, that too in favor of China. In addition, India might push for increased Chinese investments in infrastructural projects with share of expertise from China for bullet train projects in India.
Thirdly, the visit is crucial for India’s foreign policy practice as Modi will be taking three Chief Ministers with him to China. In a ‘federal policy initiative’, this is directed to attract better investment and business opportunities for the states. If found fruitful, the practice could form part of India’s diplomatic engagements with other countries in future.
However, the ‘economics only’ must not drive the purpose of visit alone. India must seek some clarity from China on Arunachal issue. This is important as, in response to Indian reservation in April this year, Beijing has claimed it is an “undeniable fact” that there is a “huge dispute” over Arunachal.
Similarly, China’s pact with Pakistan on investments in Azad Kashmir too is a matter of concern for India. Also, there is less possibility of a likely reaching anything ‘tangible’ on the border dispute. It is yet to be seen how much the intended optimism will reflect in reality during the visit.
Narendra Modi ✔ 
