Modi's bravado ups the ante in India-Pakistan fighting

[SanjeevaniButi]

The problem for them is that the balance of power on the border has not changed, and the chances of India winning a two-front war against China and Pakistan combined is still extremely low.

So Modi wants to play a fine balancing act.

He wants to take an aggressive stance on the border issues, to differentiate him from his predecessors and to answer the attacks on him by his opposition.

BUT he cannot push too far, since if he accidentally does trigger this much talked about two-front war, he'll realize very quickly that the balance of power on the border is overwhelmingly in our favor.

Also, while both China and India have "No First Use" nuclear policies (which makes a conventional war very possible), Pakistan does not have such a policy, so any India-Pakistan War will inevitably escalate to a point where the nuclear option is on the table.

Modi is hardly the type to play any balancing act

He's a man with strong convictions and beliefs. He is a man of character and predictable behaviour.

What the Indian govt. is doing comes as no surprise to Indians and knowledgeable pakistanis. It is very much in line with Modi's character.

Pakistan has cried the nuclear "Wolf" far too many times and the world is sick of its North Korea like blackmail by holding a gun to its own head. The world is waiting for someone to take the lead in bring pakistan down.

I suspect China too is on that list of nation who wants to cut pakistan down to size.

Do you know who this Indian is ?

 

[Iggy]

Zhongnanhai coordinates very closely with Islamabad on regional security issues, there is no question about that.
.

I dont know whether to laugh at your comments.. Please tell me when was the last time you even give a vocal support to Pakistan when they were fighting with us??

 

[Capt_ghalib]

The problem for them is that the balance of power on the border has not changed, and the chances of India winning a two-front war against China and Pakistan combined is still extremely low.

So Modi wants to play a fine balancing act.

He wants to take an aggressive stance on the border issues, to differentiate him from his predecessors and to answer the attacks on him by his opposition.

BUT he cannot push too far, since if he accidentally does trigger this much talked about two-front war, he'll realize very quickly that the balance of power on the border is overwhelmingly in our favor.

Also, while both China and India have "No First Use" nuclear policies (which makes a conventional war very possible), Pakistan does not have such a policy, so any India-Pakistan War will inevitably escalate to a point where the nuclear option is on the table.

Pray tell me why would China escalate and open up a new front against India when it already has so many other pressure points? Just because @Chinese-Dragon thinks its better to suck up to Pakistani posters on a Pakistani defence forum? This very stupid tradition of 'u lick mine-i will lick your' between Chinese and Pakistani people is limited to PDF. China as a nation is smarter and will keep focussed on its own issues vis a vis south China sea, Hkg, and so on. In fact China has got so much on its plate already that standing up for a practically useless friend will be its last priority. Maybe after 25-30 yrs, once China has sorted out its other issues and only if It keeps up the development rate, they might think of Intervening on behalf of Pakistan but till then support will be limited to just lip service.
On the nuclear issue India does not aspire for even an inch of Pakistani land or people, India will focus on pinning them down and humiliating them rather than annihilating the entire nation. Though i doubt it will make any changes in their attitude, as we can see from the outcome of last few wars.

 

[ito]

So you agree that these so-called "Chinese incursions" never happened?

chinese incursions could have happened, so does indian incursions into chinese territory. my point is there is no relationship between chinese incursions and indo pak loc firings

 

[SanjeevaniButi]

So you agree that these so-called "Chinese incursions" never happened?

Like I said, Modi may be in power now, but the balance of power on the border has not changed.

Modi is trying to push his luck, and he is going to inadvertently trigger another Forward Policy.

Power does not flow from the barrel of the gun, it flows from resolute leadership.

So I do think the balance of power even on the border has changed. Pakistan is learning it the hard way.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I dont know whether to laugh at your comments.. Please tell me when was the last time you even give a vocal support to Pakistan when they were fighting with us??

You guys are always complaining that we give stapled Visas to people from disputed Indian territory, but not doing the same for those in Pakistan's disputed territory?

Don't you guys always cry that we recognize Pakistani Kashmir as Pakistan's territory, and help them to build infrastructure there, while we give stapled Visas to people from Indian Kashmir and AP?

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

We have the same caveat in our No First Use clause actually.

In any case, India's total nuclear arsenal is only about 1 megaton combined, made up mostly of fission devices.

Whereas a single Chinese thermonuclear warhead is around 4 megatons EACH. Which means one single Chinese nuke has more destructive power than India's entire arsenal.

Also, India's capital city (and populated Ganges river delta) is right next to the Chinese border. Whereas our coastal region is thousands of kilometers away from the Indian border.

And if there is ANY idea amongst the Chinese leadership that India will resort to the nuclear option against us, we will have no choice but to commit to preemptive strikes in order to disable India's ability to launch nukes. This means that in a India-Pakistan nuclear war, if there is any hint of India using nukes against us, we will have to hit them first to disable their ability to launch.

The result being another two-front situation that India will not come out of very well.

Very delusional to think we have 1 megaton total arsenal,keep believing that.110 odd warheads -road and rail mobile .Such missiles are very easily concealed and mobile and nearly impervious to first strikes-these are not static silo based warheads.
Nuclear warfare would result in total devastation of all 3 countries.You think only pakistan and india will burn?half a dozen nuclear warheads into the hwang ho basin will destroy all agriculture in china's heartland causing mass starvation..one nuke on the three gorges dam will cause immense floods killing millions.A nuclear war involving india-china-pakistan will be the end of asia.

These border skirmishes have nothing to do with any nuclear war-its merely a statement being delivered by shells and bullets to PA by current govt,laying down rules of deterrence-there is ZERO chance of any movement across LOC.Ultimately these border cross firing will only make life miserable for the exposed villagers on both sides-while troops are comfortably shooting each other from cover of bunkers.

 

[Kompromat]

@seiko

Go on a rampage against your own editorials which plainly suggest what i've stated above. India has no such agreement with China. It doesn't resort to firing on China because PLA will smash your Army into bits.

Balance of power both in China-India, India-Pakistan calculus is AGAINST India.

Most Indians seek refuge in thought of their numarical superiority vis-a-vis Pakistan. What they don't want to hear is that their 'tactical firepower utility' towards Pakistan starts ABOVE its set threshold of conventional detterence against China.

In other words, in any war, Pakistan can sustain and maintain its deterrence depth for our capacity of sustaining our asset depletion ratio vis-a-vis India is higher as per our official threat matrix.

India is restrained as it would have to fight Pakistan ABOVE its own conventional deterrence against China which means its asset depletion tolerance is lower than Pakistan which explains why Indian brass have ALWAYS resorted to a 'Blitzkreigh' doctrine against Pakistan...all of which have been spectacular failures due to dynamics stated above,

best regards

@Chinese-Dragon

 

[rockstar08]

i am Sure modi can do better than that ...
Common yaar , start the war .... we are tired of provoking you on LOC

 

[pakdefender]

Indians as usual are making lots of noise from both ends but in reality Indians are wimps , everyone knows , allow me to post some pictures here about the everyday Indian and rest assured there will be 10 fold increase in burning

Indians have basically bitten off more than what they could chew over the past decade while hiding under the scrotum of america

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Very delusional to think we have 1 megaton total arsenal,keep believing that.110 odd warheads -road and rail mobile .Such missiles are very easily concealed and mobile and nearly impervious to first strikes-these are not static silo based warheads.
Nuclear warfare would result in total devastation of all 3 countries.You think only pakistan and india will burn?half a dozen nuclear warheads into the hwang ho basin will destroy all agriculture in china's heartland causing mass starvation..one nuke on the three gorges dam will cause immense floods killing millions.A nuclear war involving india-china-pakistan will be the end of asia.

These border skirmishes have nothing to do with any nuclear war-its merely a statement being delivered by shells and bullets to PA by current govt,laying down rules of deterrence-there is ZERO chance of any movement across LOC.Ultimately these border cross firing will only make life miserable for the exposed villagers on both sides-while troops are comfortably shooting each other from cover of bunkers.

That was the estimation given by all the reports given on this forum, that India's nuclear arsenal is approximately 1 megaton in total. I don't write those reports.

These border skirmishes have nothing to do with any nuclear war-its merely a statement being delivered by shells and bullets to PA by current govt,laying down rules of deterrence-there is ZERO chance of any movement across LOC.Ultimately these border cross firing will only make life miserable for the exposed villagers on both sides-while troops are comfortably shooting each other from cover of bunkers.

ZERO chance of a war, sure... that's what Nehru thought too. That's what everyone else thought, that they could try a new "aggressive posture" and they would not accidentally start a war.

 

[Iggy]

You guys are always complaining that we give stapled Visas to people from disputed Indian territory, but not doing the same for those in Pakistan's disputed territory?

Don't you guys always cry that we recognize Pakistani Kashmir as Pakistan's territory, and help them to build infrastructure there, while we give stapled Visas to people from Indian Kashmir and AP?

Why are you deviating from the topic? We both know what the answer will be.. I asked specifically when was the last time, you give a vocal support to Pakistanis when we were attacking each other..

 

[ito]

@seiko

Go on a rampage against your own editorials who suggest what i've stated above. India has no such agreement with China. It doesn't resort to firing on China because PLA will smash your Army into bits.

Balance of power both in China-India, India-Pakistan calculus is AGAINST India.

Most Indians seek refuge in thought of their numarical superiority vis-a-vis Pakistan. What they don't want to hear is that their 'tactical firepower utility' towards Pakistan starts ABOVE its set threshold of conventional detterence against China.

In other words, in any war, Pakistan can sustain and maintain its deterrence depth for our capacity of sustaining our asset depletion ratio vis-a-vis India is higher as per our official threat matrix. India is restrained as it would have to fight Pakistan ABOVE its own conventional deterrence against China which means its asset depletion tolerance is lower than Pakistan which explains why Indian brass have ALWAYS resorted to a 'Blitzkreigh' doctrine against Pakistan...all of whom have been spectacular failures due to dynamics stated above,

best regards

@Chinese-Dragon

indo - chinese dynamics are quite different from indo-pak. indians don't consider chinese to be 'enemies' in the same breath as to pakistanis. chinese are more of partners and competitors.

neither will india fire on chinese nor will chinese fire on indians

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Why are you deviating from the topic? We both know what the answer will be.. I asked specifically when was the last time, you give a vocal support to Pakistanis when we were attacking each other..

The Chinese government is always giving statements of diplomatic support to Pakistan, and vice versa.

If you want specific examples then look for it yourself, you do know how to use a search engine I presume.

 

[PoKeMon]

@Chinese-Dragon

Did your government condemn India for killing pakistani civilian in recent skirmish?

And on visa thing - Can you tell me one thing? Can @Horus apply for a china tour visa individually with a pakistani passport?

@seiko