@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) and others
I am going to start off the PDF scenario from the event we are most familiar with - it is 26th February 2019 -
I think it is a good starting scenario since we know about the events and also makes for a good plausible start of what if. It also gives me the follow up of 27th Feb to replicate but with the twist as I will outline below.
All I have done is set up the simulation based on the accounts from Acdre Tufail, members here and even the Indian accounts of how they set up their refueling and strike route - the accuracy of which is really dependent upon these folks.
Additionally, by setting up flight paths for the main strike force, diversion - I set their RoEs(
restrictive for PAF and IAF is fire at PAF only in defense) , whether to pursue across the border or not(although they do get naughty at times) and the mission profiles.
Finally - once I hit "Play" I do NOT control the variables or any of the units in there - the algorithms assume the virtual pilots are equally proficient(same OODA loop of 15 second detection and 20 seconds to engage) and there were no errors in loading Spice 2000 coordinates. In summary, if the IAF did everything by the book and the PAF did everything by the book.
For the 26th I am using images but looking to switch to video for the 27th if the editing comes out OK.
SO:
Narendra Modi has just authorized a strike on a seminary with in Balakot as retribution for Pulwama. We dont know what the kids are being taught or whether it is a training camp as they claim or not. But there are young children in there.
Per Acdre Tufails account - the Indian Strike aircraft took off at 1:30 am with 16 M2000s - Indian sources also cite Su-30s in the air acting as escorts and diversionary flights.
The picture when seen from the Pakistani side at 1:30am (solid white line - yellow lines represent engagement of ADGE systems known employed) shows the usual civilian traffic as well along with Pakistani ELINT picking up Indian Radar coverage.
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On the Indian side we have the A-50 airborne providing AEW support (some sources cite the Netra 145) and a IL-78(soon to be followed by another) for refueling support.
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At 1:31 the Mirages start rolling from Gwalior - Su-30s from Jodhpur have not yet taken off.
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Around 1:45-2am the package of 16 mirages starts forming up - some tasked to split off and head towards diversionary targets. The A-50 is now at altitude and providing good coverage of most of northern Pakistani airspace.
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While technically Pakistani radar coverage from its TPS series extends into India, there is no trace of what is happening on that side other than what is perceived to be a lone flight which could be a CAP(although I am sure in PAF AHQ some eyes were up based upon Intel). The last CAP had landed a while ago and its replacement was now being prepped for take off.
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However, by 2:15 things start showing up - the CAP is taxying to the runway 2x JF-17 Block-2s from Kamra armed with SD-10s. This CAP was set to trigger automatically by the computer if it detected more than 2xflights and perceived the flight path of those unknows to be crossing into a pre-defined area. Interestingly, during Mujahideen e Aflak it was claimed that the radar only saw the IAF flight around 3am? Was this referral to the Balakot strike and not the other violations at Fazalika sector and others?
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As the first diversionary flights starts heading through - the computer decides it may want to scramble another pair - F-16s out of Mushaf, they are airborne around 2:45 ( interestingly , Pakistani accounts state they did not get airborne until they detected the Indian flight - but the computer did not hesitate to respond)
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After realizing that the diversions were not a threat - the computer focuses the JF-17 and F-16 towards the Indian Mirages heading for Balakot who are now at 2:55 about to cross the border- The cloud cover keeps the crystal maze(AGM-142 derivative) from being deployed and that flight will soon turn back.
The Pakistani interceptors go into burner after chasing the false leads and will inadvertently do some border violations too trying to get to the Indian aircraft.
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That may not be enough - as the M2Ks are in range for the SPICE-2000 ( the computer elects to drop a little closer than its max range of 30nm to around 22nm , trying to guarantee energy and probability of hit)
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The bombs make their mark - the seminary is blow to smithereens along with any occupants - The PAF fighters might see the flames but in general the time of night wont make any difference, The Indian flight turns back with the PAF hot on their tails, but with the RoE's in place the computer has no reason for weapons release and the IAF aircraft head back after their deed is done.
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The PAF doesn't pursue them across the border - the damage will be known soon enough. There was no nervous Indian pilot or mistake in loading gps elevation data for the Spice system. 200+ Pakistanis were killed with the majority of them children - that national message would echo the APS massacre in many ways. By early morning the cameras will arrive and a raging nation will weigh its response.
Thoughts;
1. Without the human element (other than deciding OODA loops) the Pakistani ADGE was aware of something amiss but was distracted by the diversions.
2. The Balakot package had to refuel twice from Gwalior on both legs of the journey on what was a 3hour mission in essence back and forth.
3. Based on radar detection and if they had prior knowledge of intent, the PAF could have engaged the IAF Strike package at BVR over Indian air space and right after they crossed the border for 10-15km before releasing SPICE 2000. However, there was a group of M2ks with MICAs and a Su-30 Pair around that could respond as well. It would have spared Pakistani lives but within the RoEs this was all moot.
Given the human factor is taken out and simple rule based and probability gaming - nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.