Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[Irfan Baloch]

I really just had thoughts in mind - but, this could be fun if we gave our own spin provided we make it interesting.

for e.g.
while we don’t need to do 16 narratives , I recall the flight sim thing I did years before through a friend where we kept changing scenarios to see what would happen with screenshots thrown in.

After all, if this sim is good enough for BaE and their customers it should be for the discerning tastes of PDF?

What say ye @JamD @HRK @Dazzler @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Bilal. ? Again, when you have nothing better to do and the other "F-16V are coming" discussions finally get tiresome?

One can just start off with the next "opening scenario" - whatever you wish to paint it and lets see how it comes out.
"
Mission
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
Execution
Using aircraft based at PAF Murid, Minhas, and Skardu, neutralize all stated high value targets as well as other threats such as SAMs and Indian CAP aircraft. In addition, a Hatf 7 cruise missile battery is available for use.
Friendly Forces
PAF Murid
6x Mirage IIIO (F/A)
6x F-16CJ+
4x Z-10
1x Falcon 20 OECM
PAF Minhas
8x JF-17 Blk. 3
6x F-16AM
1x Saab 2000 AEW&C
PAF Skardu
4x Mirage 5F

Do the same for enemy forces - where and how many and then let the sims algorithms do the rest.

I reckon it might be more fun than the usual hyperboles we get??

For all interested - lets do a cut off time for entries by 11AM PST 5/16 and then Ill enter into the sim to generate the outcome

I am sorry I missed out the cut off date.

prologue

India requested American satellite intelligence to counter china

Israeli advisors . task force consisting of special forces and air force pilots is stationed in Srinager to target Pakistani nuclear facilities if given a go ahead by Israeli leadership
India has S400 batteries deployed along the western borders
36 Rafales and American Apache gunships are fully integrated and have been in service for few years.

Indian strike forces consisting of armor and mechanised infantry with support elements have been conducting military exercises along Rajhistan and Punjab with Kasur, Bahawalpur, Sialkot and Lahore as objective.

PAF operation

the Pakistani leadership decides that it is one and only chance to strike India now with full force without giving it any chance to respond or retaliate.
the air strikes should be conducted in a way that IAF is degraded up to a point where its will to conduct aggressive operations against Pakistan and support its ground forces is comprehensively broken.
Sri Nagar be Serpent and Pathan Kot be Hydra and Ambala be Harpy.

the primary targets include ground based early warning systems, command centres, SAM sites and air bases.
secondary objectives include ground strikes on Indian battle groups massed along the borders, ammunition and fuel depots. provide CAS and ground strikes in Pakistan army's strike corps push into Jammu and Punjab objectives.
the attacks must start with Hataf7 and Shaheen cruise missiles targeting the Indian SAM and radar sites.

followed immediately by task force of Mirajes launching glibe bombs and cruise missiles while the JF 17s and F16s provide protection and CAP.
F16s and JF17s strike the Indian armor and mechanised infantry and take out Indian gunships on the request of Pakistani strike corps once they cross into Jammu and Indian Punjab.

All available air assets must be utilised in the full initial assault to cause maximum devastation to the Indian air force in a short time so that its leadership is discouraged from continuing with its invasion and the public and political pressure forces it to abandon its war.

Pakistan army operation

Pakistan army strike corps will flank the Indian positions and take out Indian artillery and Indian battle group after it gets disrupted by PAF initial attacks,

specialised mountain infantry like NLI and SSG to launch operations in Kashmir disrupting Indian logistics leading to remote areas including Siachin with the help of PAF,

1st corps will cross the LoC and take out Indian command centre in Rajori after flanking the Indian strike force massed near Bhimber in conjunction with PAF strike. 30 Corps will act as reserve and defend Bahawalpur to Lahore.

Chinese contribution

Pakistan cyber command with the help of China disrupt indian command and control and communications and degrade the American intelligence which could be used against Pakistan, Chinese and Pakistan cyber attacks are vital in the success of PAF strikes on IAF assets and the FOBs.

Israeli connection.

Israel be contacted via US, Canada , UAE and UK embassies warning it in clear terms that any attempt by its airforce or covert ops to take advantage of the war will be responded in kind and its interests will be targeted with full force. any misadventure might compel Pakistan to provide help to countries in Middle east in their fight against Israel. this is potentially a sensitive and weakest part from Pakistan point of view and must be played carefully to prevent America coming in the name of defending Israel and ending up helping India. a back door diplomacy will be a better option with use of UAE and KSA convincing Israel that Pakistani nukes shouldnt be any concern for Israel as long as Pakistan has a stable central government.

 

[Blacklight]

I am sorry I missed out the cut off date.

prologue

India requested American satellite intelligence to counter china

Israeli advisors . task force consisting of special forces and air force pilots is stationed in Srinager to target Pakistani nuclear facilities if given a go ahead by Israeli leadership
India has S400 batteries deployed along the western borders
36 Rafales and American Apache gunships are fully integrated and have been in service for few years.

Indian strike forces consisting of armor and mechanised infantry with support elements have been conducting military exercises along Rajhistan and Punjab with Kasur, Bahawalpur, Sialkot and Lahore as objective.

PAF operation

the Pakistani leadership decides that it is one and only chance to strike India now with full force without giving it any chance to respond or retaliate.
the air strikes should be conducted in a way that IAF is degraded up to a point where its will to conduct aggressive operations against Pakistan and support its ground forces is comprehensively broken.
Sri Nagar be Serpent and Pathan Kot be Hydra and Ambala be Harpy.

the primary targets include ground based early warning systems, command centres, SAM sites and air bases.
secondary objectives include ground strikes on Indian battle groups massed along the borders, ammunition and fuel depots. provide CAS and ground strikes in Pakistan army's strike corps push into Jammu and Punjab objectives.
the attacks must start with Hataf7 and Shaheen cruise missiles targeting the Indian SAM and radar sites.

followed immediately by task force of Mirajes launching glibe bombs and cruise missiles while the JF 17s and F16s provide protection and CAP.
F16s and JF17s strike the Indian armor and mechanised infantry and take out Indian gunships on the request of Pakistani strike corps once they cross into Jammu and Indian Punjab.

All available air assets must be utilised in the full initial assault to cause maximum devastation to the Indian air force in a short time so that its leadership is discouraged from continuing with its invasion and the public and political pressure forces it to abandon its war.

Pakistan army operation

Pakistan army strike corps will flank the Indian positions and take out Indian artillery and Indian battle group after it gets disrupted by PAF initial attacks,

specialised mountain infantry like NLI and SSG to launch operations in Kashmir disrupting Indian logistics leading to remote areas including Siachin with the help of PAF,

1st corps will cross the LoC and take out Indian command centre in Rajori after flanking the Indian strike force massed near Bhimber in conjunction with PAF strike. 30 Corps will act as reserve and defend Bahawalpur to Lahore.

Chinese contribution

Pakistan cyber command with the help of China disrupt indian command and control and communications and degrade the American intelligence which could be used against Pakistan, Chinese and Pakistan cyber attacks are vital in the success of PAF strikes on IAF assets and the FOBs.

Israeli connection.

Israel be contacted via US, Canada , UAE and UK embassies warning it in clear terms that any attempt by its airforce or covert ops to take advantage of the war will be responded in kind and its interests will be targeted with full force. any misadventure might compel Pakistan to provide help to countries in Middle east in their fight against Israel. this is potentially a sensitive and weakest part from Pakistan point of view and must be played carefully to prevent America coming in the name of defending Israel and ending up helping India. a back door diplomacy will be a better option with use of UAE and KSA convincing Israel that Pakistani nukes shouldnt be any concern for Israel as long as Pakistan has a stable central government.

Pls do add how Pakistan would decimate India's oil rigs in the Arabian Sea + Indian Ocean, as well the Refineries and industrial base especially in Gujarat and Maharashtra. I'm sure Mil Planners would also target oil supply lines / depots as soon as war is declared.

Nonetheless, subs leaving hatches open, Aircraft carriers & destroyers catching fire in port, Mil plans from Delhi arriving via thumb drives, Internal Indian separatist movements going into overdrive, cannot always be blamed on our hisas idarays. Their role is best left to peoples imagination.

 

[HRK]

@SQ8 .... was holding myself positing about the scenario, as I was not sure it was possible to rum a situation in sim about non-contact warfare in India-Pakistan war like situation.

I mean IF possible then plz create a scenario where before the actual initiation of contact war between India and Pakistan, Pakistan launch a non-contact offensive operation against India ideally naturalising or otherwise degrade the Indian Power, Energy, Transport and Communication infrastructures to the maximum both in Civilian and Military sectors.

 

[SQ8]

@SQ8 .... was holding myself positing about the scenario, as I was not sure it was possible to rum a situation in sim about non-contact warfare in India-Pakistan war like situation.

I mean IF possible then plz create a scenario where before the actual initiation of contact war between India and Pakistan, Pakistan launch a non-contact offensive operation against India ideally naturalising or otherwise degrade the Indian Power, Energy, Transport and Communication infrastructures to the maximum both in Civilian and Military sectors.

I have a framework in mind - frankly have in-laws over so waiting for the scenario to become more amicable to me having time to spend on the pc

 

[El Sidd]

I see when they say no one wins a war. It seems winning has more to do with luck than anything else.

 

[SQ8]

I see when they say no one wins a war. It seems winning has more to do with luck than anything else.

@Irfan Baloch @HRK @JamD and others - why I like this sim:

Mechanics:

Sensors
Sensors work according to their RL counterparts. Radars are affected by factors such as weather, clutter, jamming (true radar equation, incl. propagation loss), line of sight, horizon (incl. surface effect) and others. Likewise for sonar (passive, active, ping intercept), visual and IR sensors, electronic warfare (ESM/ECM) and so on. Some types of sensors like laser designators/rangers and MAD have simpler models. The radar model takes a great number of factors into account, like frequencies, horizontal and vertical beamwidth, System Noise Level, Processing Gain/Loss, Peak Power, Pulse Width, Blind Time (yes we simulate pulse compression!), PRF, min & max range, min & max altitude, scan interval, range/height/angle resolution, various capabilities such as air/surface/ground/periscope & range/altitude/speed/heading (RASH) info, OTH-B/OTH-SW, pulse-only & early/later doppler with limited/full LDSD, MTI, NCTR, Phased Array continuous target tracking, CW and CWI capability.

Radar
Sonar
Electronic Warfare
Visual / IR
Command distinguishes between Detection, Classification, and Identification. Visual detection and classification/identification signatures are based on physical size and various Visual/IR modifiers such as High-Viz, Retro Camo, Low-Viz Camo, etc. However the aircraft’s color only has limited impact on detection range except fluorcent colors. Typical classification ranges for high-viz civilian aircraft is ca 8nm while for low-viz aircraft it is ca 5nm. For visual sensors it is actually the _length_ of the aircraft has the largest impact on detection range. In contrast to earlier games, anti-air missiles and small ASM/AGMs can not be visually classified by type in Command. So there are no more ‘Incoming AIM-9M-5 Mod 4 Build 3 Block A-2/63′ messages. There is much talk about using IRST sensors to counter stealth. But in reality IRST sensors have relatively short range due to the fact that IR radiation is absorbed very quickly by the atmosphere. As such it is a great tool to help improve short/medium-range situational awareness as it has a much wider FOV than the radar, but it certainly isn’t a long-range anti-stealth sensor! This fact is of course also reflected in Command. Command also handles contrails. The effects of these can be demonstrated through the following example: Three A-4M Skyhawks are overflying a ground observer using Mk1 Eyeball as search sensor. One Skyhawk is at 1000ft, one at 25000ft and one at 36000ft.

• The lowest is detected at ca 2.1-1.8nm slant range and classified as a A-4 Skyhawk at ca 0.8-1.0nm slant range.
• The middle aircraft is not detected as it is too far away / too small.
• The highest Skyhawk creates a contrail and is detected at a considerable distance, and thus is the first of the three to be detected. The ground observer can determine the size of the contrail (small/medium/large) but can never see the actual aircraft nor classify it as an A-4 Skyhawk.

TECHNICAL DETAILS: Contrails will only form at altitudes greater than 8000m, and at temperatures below -40 deg C. The simulator has a ‘standard atmosphere’ model that checks if the temperature is lower than 233 deg Kelvin at the aircraft’s current altitude. The simulator uses the aircraft’s ‘Visual Size Class’ to determine the size of the contrail, and thus detection range. The detection range also depends on time-of-day and cloud cover. - Very Large: 50nm - Large: 30nm - Medium: 20nm - Small: 10nm

Stealth
Stealth and low-observable aircraft and ships in the database have smaller radar, visual and IR signatures than other units. The simulator uses several different generations of radar stealth and various signature modifiers to produce realistic detection ranges. We also simulate the fact that A to D-band radars are far better at detecting stealth aircraft than E to K-band radars. The AN/FPS-130 is a D-band long-range air search radar which means it is quite effective against stealth aircraft since the wave length is equal to the aircraft or big fuselage components such as wings or tails. This produces resonance effects which give good radar returns. This is not the case for E to K-band radars, and the effect of LO shaping is much, much higher.

Low Probability of Intercept
In Command, LPI radars use their real-life power output (0.1W or 1W) and pulse lengths but have much lower System Noise Levels and better Processing Gain/Loss than conventional sets. We do not simulate the ‘ESM-style analysis techniques’ used by these radars in real life, we adjust the processing gain. As such LPI radars work just like any other radar set except they are counter-detected at much shorter ranges. RWRs have much smaller antennas than the LPI radars, and thus the LPI has an advantage as it uses signal analysis methods similar to that of ESM gear. That means modern LPIs are often detecting stuff before being counter-detected, and this is also the case in the simulator. For more advanced RWRs and ESM sets the LPI will be picked up at longer ranges

 

[El Sidd]

. Some types of sensors like laser designators/rangers and MAD have simpler models. The radar model takes a great number of factors into

Although there may exist a chance of isolating a simpler model, but would that chance be enough to base a whole scenario upfront?

Contrails

can be overcome

 

[paritosh]

Bio weapons....look how vulnerable they are.

We all will be judged for things we said in this life.

 

[Arsalan345]

Bio weapons....look how vulnerable they are.

Nope.

 

[ebrahym]

This is just a really well thought and well written piece of bullshit.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

@ebrahym
now that you have shared your insightful review

can you give your own version to the scenario?


in case you missed, the OP has clarified that the scenario is the product of a famous think tank from USA. and @SQ8 doesnt endorse the way scenario is played out.

 

[Blacklight]

@Irfan Baloch @HRK @JamD and others - why I like this sim:

Mechanics:

Sensors
Sensors work according to their RL counterparts. Radars are affected by factors such as weather, clutter, jamming (true radar equation, incl. propagation loss), line of sight, horizon (incl. surface effect) and others. Likewise for sonar (passive, active, ping intercept), visual and IR sensors, electronic warfare (ESM/ECM) and so on. Some types of sensors like laser designators/rangers and MAD have simpler models. The radar model takes a great number of factors into account, like frequencies, horizontal and vertical beamwidth, System Noise Level, Processing Gain/Loss, Peak Power, Pulse Width, Blind Time (yes we simulate pulse compression!), PRF, min & max range, min & max altitude, scan interval, range/height/angle resolution, various capabilities such as air/surface/ground/periscope & range/altitude/speed/heading (RASH) info, OTH-B/OTH-SW, pulse-only & early/later doppler with limited/full LDSD, MTI, NCTR, Phased Array continuous target tracking, CW and CWI capability.

Radar
Sonar
Electronic Warfare
Visual / IR
Command distinguishes between Detection, Classification, and Identification. Visual detection and classification/identification signatures are based on physical size and various Visual/IR modifiers such as High-Viz, Retro Camo, Low-Viz Camo, etc. However the aircraft’s color only has limited impact on detection range except fluorcent colors. Typical classification ranges for high-viz civilian aircraft is ca 8nm while for low-viz aircraft it is ca 5nm. For visual sensors it is actually the _length_ of the aircraft has the largest impact on detection range. In contrast to earlier games, anti-air missiles and small ASM/AGMs can not be visually classified by type in Command. So there are no more ‘Incoming AIM-9M-5 Mod 4 Build 3 Block A-2/63′ messages. There is much talk about using IRST sensors to counter stealth. But in reality IRST sensors have relatively short range due to the fact that IR radiation is absorbed very quickly by the atmosphere. As such it is a great tool to help improve short/medium-range situational awareness as it has a much wider FOV than the radar, but it certainly isn’t a long-range anti-stealth sensor! This fact is of course also reflected in Command. Command also handles contrails. The effects of these can be demonstrated through the following example: Three A-4M Skyhawks are overflying a ground observer using Mk1 Eyeball as search sensor. One Skyhawk is at 1000ft, one at 25000ft and one at 36000ft.

• The lowest is detected at ca 2.1-1.8nm slant range and classified as a A-4 Skyhawk at ca 0.8-1.0nm slant range.
• The middle aircraft is not detected as it is too far away / too small.
• The highest Skyhawk creates a contrail and is detected at a considerable distance, and thus is the first of the three to be detected. The ground observer can determine the size of the contrail (small/medium/large) but can never see the actual aircraft nor classify it as an A-4 Skyhawk.

TECHNICAL DETAILS: Contrails will only form at altitudes greater than 8000m, and at temperatures below -40 deg C. The simulator has a ‘standard atmosphere’ model that checks if the temperature is lower than 233 deg Kelvin at the aircraft’s current altitude. The simulator uses the aircraft’s ‘Visual Size Class’ to determine the size of the contrail, and thus detection range. The detection range also depends on time-of-day and cloud cover. - Very Large: 50nm - Large: 30nm - Medium: 20nm - Small: 10nm

Stealth
Stealth and low-observable aircraft and ships in the database have smaller radar, visual and IR signatures than other units. The simulator uses several different generations of radar stealth and various signature modifiers to produce realistic detection ranges. We also simulate the fact that A to D-band radars are far better at detecting stealth aircraft than E to K-band radars. The AN/FPS-130 is a D-band long-range air search radar which means it is quite effective against stealth aircraft since the wave length is equal to the aircraft or big fuselage components such as wings or tails. This produces resonance effects which give good radar returns. This is not the case for E to K-band radars, and the effect of LO shaping is much, much higher.

Low Probability of Intercept
In Command, LPI radars use their real-life power output (0.1W or 1W) and pulse lengths but have much lower System Noise Levels and better Processing Gain/Loss than conventional sets. We do not simulate the ‘ESM-style analysis techniques’ used by these radars in real life, we adjust the processing gain. As such LPI radars work just like any other radar set except they are counter-detected at much shorter ranges. RWRs have much smaller antennas than the LPI radars, and thus the LPI has an advantage as it uses signal analysis methods similar to that of ESM gear. That means modern LPIs are often detecting stuff before being counter-detected, and this is also the case in the simulator. For more advanced RWRs and ESM sets the LPI will be picked up at longer ranges

If sims could decide the outcome of wars, the world would be a very different place.

 

[Blacklight]

in case you missed, the OP has clarified that the scenario is the product of a famous think tank from USA. and @SQ8 doesnt endorse the way scenario is played out.

Sir, As much as I appreciate the effort brother @SQ8 has put in, I always wonder what would be the most effective way to counter these Think Tanks & Lobbyists. Can we explore this, publicly or privately, whatever you may deem more appropriate?

Regards

 

[ebrahym]

@ebrahym
now that you have shared your insightful review

can you give your own version to the scenario?


in case you missed, the OP has clarified that the scenario is the product of a famous think tank from USA. and @SQ8 doesnt endorse the way scenario is played out.

No sir I can not provide a scenario.
Of course that does not exempt criticism of scenario that has been provided.
its like saying I can not be a movie critic because i can not make a movie,
or better yet,
I am ineligible to vote because i can not run the country.

Before 1965, we played all scenarios (With help from American think tanks of course) and concluded we will achieve an absolute victory. also my criticism is not of the author but of the article. and i standby it
It is well written, but bullshit nevertheless.
Scenarios are unpredictable as long as they do not happen.

Sir, As much as I appreciate the effort brother @SQ8 has put in, I always wonder what would be the most effective way to counter these Think Tanks & Lobbyists. Can we explore this, publicly or privately, whatever you may deem more appropriate?

Regards

Apologies to barge in on the conversation,
But the fact is that only Bullshit requires Participation in order to propagate, truth does not.
their simple remedy is to ignore them ..... they are nothing more than opinion pieces. with people who write them having as mush experience and qualification as internet and papers.

 

[Blacklight]

Apologies to barge in on the conversation,
But the fact is that only Bullshit requires Participation in order to propagate, truth does not.
their simple remedy is to ignore them .....

Sir, please allow me to disagree, my experience says otherwise.

they are nothing more than opinion pieces. with people who write them having as mush experience and qualification as internet and papers.

Couldn't agree with you more, hence why they, and their agenda, should be exposed!