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Miftah Ismael under-reported new foreign debt by at least $7 Billion in the budget 2022-23 document.

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There was no headline news about economic crisis in March 2022.
So why do we need this crisis recovery ?

... and just a simple question: When you listen to economic policy press conferences of PDM government official, do you feel they really know what are they talking about?

Why was the economy is crisis when:

  • GDP growth rate during fiscal year 2021-22 on the new base of 2015-16 stood at 5.97%.
  • Record Tax collection.
  • Agriculture sector is estimated to grow at 4.4% in FY22against 3.48% in FY21. The livestock sector grew at 3.3%, accompaniedby forestry and fishing showing growth of 6.13%.
  • Industry sector expanded at 7.19% in FY22 against 7.81% last year.
  • The growth of services sector was recorded at 6.19% in FY22 as opposed to 6% in FY21.
  • Large scale manufacturing witnessed 10.4% growth during 9MFY22 (versus 4.2% during 9MFY21).
  • Cement production decreased by 8.2% for 9MFY22, while oil sales of the same period saw an increase of 17%.
  • The size of Pakistan’s economy is expected to amount to Rs66.95 trillion in FY22 compared to Rs55.8 trillion recorded in FY21.
  • During FY22, the per capita income of country increased to Rs314,353 (equivalent to $1,798).
  • In dollar terms, the size of the economy reached to $382.8 billion.
  • Current account deficit was recorded at $13.8 billion in 10MFY22 from$543 million (10MFY21), owing mostly to increased import volumes ofcommodities as well as increased international prices.
  • Exports also witnessed growth of 27.6% to reach $26.8 billion for 10MFY22 (compared to $21 billion for 10MFY21). Food group'sexports increased by 18.9% year-on-year reaching $3.9 billion during 10MFY22.
  • The total imports during 10MFY22 clocked at $59.8 billion showing a growth of 39% year-on-year, comprising mainly of petroleum, medicinal products, petroleum crude, LNG, palm oil, plastic materials and iron and steel.
  • Trade deficit in goods and services widened by 51.5% year-on-year on account of 39% year-on-year increase in imports of goods as wellas 34.0% year-on-year increase in imports of services.
  • Net FDI inflows rose 6.1% to $1.25 billion 9MFY22 as against $1.18 billion last year.
  • Remittances saw a year-on-year increase of 7.6% to $26.1 billion during 10MFY22, a historic high.
  • Liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at $16.1 billion while SBP’s reserves amounted to under $10 billion while commercial banks’ reservesat $6.1 billion as of May’22.
  • Private sector credit witnessed an unprecedented expansion of Rs1,312 billion during 10MFY22.

 
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Muftah only follows orders...otherwise, his fate will be along Maqsood Chaprasi.
 
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Why was the economy is crisis when:

Maybe because all of those positive things were only temporary, leading to overheating and laying the foundation for the next crisis?
 
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Well, congratulations, then. Crises averted.

Not really. The economy is caught in between a rock and a hard place for the foreseeable future, no matter who wins the next elections. Weaning off the reliance on remittances and actually producing exportable goods and services will take a long time.
 
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Maybe because all of those positive things were only temporary, leading to overheating and laying the foundation for the next crisis?
Care to explain how having 6% GDP growth, record Tax recovery, increase in LSM manufacturing and agriculture production over heat the economy?
 
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Would this impact LSM or Agriculture or record increase in IT services output?
The government wanted to "cool down" non-essential import. Am I missing anything?

The previous FM wanted to cool down the economy, as far as I understood his own statements. The rapid rise in imports was just one sign of overheating.
 
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The previous FM wanted to cool down the economy, as far as I understood his own statements. The rapid rise in imports was just one sign of overheating.
Cool down to 5%... I would take that. A few years of sustained 5% growth with increase in local production (by making imports of select products expensive to import), increase in large scale manufacturing, increase agri output would have kick started the flywheel.

5%-6% growth doesn't sound like an economy in crisis.
 
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