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Miftah Ismael under-reported new foreign debt by at least $7 Billion in the budget 2022-23 document.

There was no headline news about economic crisis in March 2022.
So why do we need this crisis recovery ?

... and just a simple question: When you listen to economic policy press conferences of PDM government official, do you feel they really know what are they talking about?

Why was the economy is crisis when:

  • GDP growth rate during fiscal year 2021-22 on the new base of 2015-16 stood at 5.97%.
  • Record Tax collection.
  • Agriculture sector is estimated to grow at 4.4% in FY22against 3.48% in FY21. The livestock sector grew at 3.3%, accompaniedby forestry and fishing showing growth of 6.13%.
  • Industry sector expanded at 7.19% in FY22 against 7.81% last year.
  • The growth of services sector was recorded at 6.19% in FY22 as opposed to 6% in FY21.
  • Large scale manufacturing witnessed 10.4% growth during 9MFY22 (versus 4.2% during 9MFY21).
  • Cement production decreased by 8.2% for 9MFY22, while oil sales of the same period saw an increase of 17%.
  • The size of Pakistan’s economy is expected to amount to Rs66.95 trillion in FY22 compared to Rs55.8 trillion recorded in FY21.
  • During FY22, the per capita income of country increased to Rs314,353 (equivalent to $1,798).
  • In dollar terms, the size of the economy reached to $382.8 billion.
  • Current account deficit was recorded at $13.8 billion in 10MFY22 from$543 million (10MFY21), owing mostly to increased import volumes ofcommodities as well as increased international prices.
  • Exports also witnessed growth of 27.6% to reach $26.8 billion for 10MFY22 (compared to $21 billion for 10MFY21). Food group'sexports increased by 18.9% year-on-year reaching $3.9 billion during 10MFY22.
  • The total imports during 10MFY22 clocked at $59.8 billion showing a growth of 39% year-on-year, comprising mainly of petroleum, medicinal products, petroleum crude, LNG, palm oil, plastic materials and iron and steel.
  • Trade deficit in goods and services widened by 51.5% year-on-year on account of 39% year-on-year increase in imports of goods as wellas 34.0% year-on-year increase in imports of services.
  • Net FDI inflows rose 6.1% to $1.25 billion 9MFY22 as against $1.18 billion last year.
  • Remittances saw a year-on-year increase of 7.6% to $26.1 billion during 10MFY22, a historic high.
  • Liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at $16.1 billion while SBP’s reserves amounted to under $10 billion while commercial banks’ reservesat $6.1 billion as of May’22.
  • Private sector credit witnessed an unprecedented expansion of Rs1,312 billion during 10MFY22.

 
Muftah only follows orders...otherwise, his fate will be along Maqsood Chaprasi.
 
Why was the economy is crisis when:

Maybe because all of those positive things were only temporary, leading to overheating and laying the foundation for the next crisis?
 
Well, congratulations, then. Crises averted.

Not really. The economy is caught in between a rock and a hard place for the foreseeable future, no matter who wins the next elections. Weaning off the reliance on remittances and actually producing exportable goods and services will take a long time.
 
Maybe because all of those positive things were only temporary, leading to overheating and laying the foundation for the next crisis?
Care to explain how having 6% GDP growth, record Tax recovery, increase in LSM manufacturing and agriculture production over heat the economy?
 
Would this impact LSM or Agriculture or record increase in IT services output?
The government wanted to "cool down" non-essential import. Am I missing anything?

The previous FM wanted to cool down the economy, as far as I understood his own statements. The rapid rise in imports was just one sign of overheating.
 
The previous FM wanted to cool down the economy, as far as I understood his own statements. The rapid rise in imports was just one sign of overheating.
Cool down to 5%... I would take that. A few years of sustained 5% growth with increase in local production (by making imports of select products expensive to import), increase in large scale manufacturing, increase agri output would have kick started the flywheel.

5%-6% growth doesn't sound like an economy in crisis.
 

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