Mazagon Dock Ltd likely to get fresh orders after Scorpene

[saurav]

Well PSG and SJ both were clear as well as @Abingdonboy, @sancho @Capt.Popeye and many other boarders who had clearly stated that investment of time and money in MDL for Scorpene sub production hardly makes sense if its just 6. I remember Sancho distinctly saying why P75I. It should be either scrapped or separated as 6+6 follow on makes sense. Now its 6+4. But i would still hope its actually 6+4+2(directly from france)
The logic of 2 build in french shipyard is that scorpene induction of 6 at least induction and sea trials of few all will be in 2021 types max. So the follow on assuming it takes an average 4 years for construction at max efficient modular construction mode puts 2025 as beginning of follow on order and a sub every year after that for sea trials. Ths its uptill 2025-28 when we get all 10 subs. Logically if we get 2 from french shipyards directly outside these 4 follow on we can get 2 in between 2021-2025 timeline. This allows us to slowly utilize shishukumar class less and use scorpene class more at least with planned deployment over different zones.
Again i hope IN had thought such a hybrid structure. bcz doing that french side can show work and employment back home too and that allows them to reciprocate the business gesture by trying to get subs out before scheduled timeline..My thoughts perhaps may not be agreeable with many boarders. But business is more of give and take so we should do a bit more smart bargaining.



Looking at everything i do believe p75I may finally go to Russians. German subs looks a bit difficult as diversifying aircraft as well as sub business both from Russia looks a bit too much. Especially as Russia's involvement in N Sub program especially for the larger SSBNs is already planned. Thus it makes sense to get them on board quickly rather than make them feel left out of the bandwagon. We actually need a submarine which is inbetween the Amur and Yasen class.. Amurs awesomeness and Yasen modern technology. Now question is like 5th gen tech being tried to downstream to MKIs in super sukhoi program then can we get some Yasen class tech in Amur and make it superior then normal Amur class? especially the noise, speed, endurance as well as the capability versus range? Again P75I si going to be a 6+6 or 6+4+2(direct) structure. And it will be a huge cost as it will have the N sub program help cost also build in.

If i would have been PM's advisor i would have talked to Chancellor Angela Merkel for a g2g deal for 3-4 subs of HDW Dolphin Class latest with augmentation in line with with Israel and load up SLCM Nirbhay like Popeye Turbo. No make in india shipyard for this dela directly from Germany and offset investment i the form of renewable energy in smart cities. Again by 2025 we can get these 3-4 subs and one shot having SLCM Nirbhay deployed gives us a boost like never before. This keeps all the players happy and IN can happily retire old sub fleet and concentrate on N sub program carefully and in a planned manner. Keeping Germany happy gives us a big boost too especially since Chancellor Merkel is a very very powerful figure in Euro as of today with Francois Hollande. This kind of deal will make UK PM Cameroon come to India asap to get some deal too which allows us to see what best we can get from UK wih TOT.. Something for IA perhaps..

So effectively IN will have at least 25 Susbs of 3 types from three different vendors.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

So effectively IN will have at least 25 Susbs of 3 types from three different vendors.

Yes bcz at present barring the Chakra the rest of them are not at the very best condition as well as does not meet the today world's need.. They are good for littorial warfare but we need deeper sea capable ones.

Thats why i chose 3.. The Russian especially Amur -Yasen in between can dive much deeper and are heavier thus, it gives an awesome deep sea capability to lurk and do what they do in devastating fashion
Scorpene is a small sub as compared to russians ones also its lower tonnage makes it nimble and agile. An excellent choice for conventional subs. Its depth max is around 350m easily wherease amur 250m Yasen goes 600m+ easily. (Kilo subs dive depth is also around 300 m)
Dolphin is in the same zone around 300-350m dive depth but since i am saying specific modicfication in line with Israeli ones, these subs would be Nirbhay SLCM N Cabale making a very distinct sub selection for 2nd strike implying
Arihant Class - K15 only
Dolphin- Nirbhay SLCM
Future N SSBNs - Major K4/K5 combination

Again this is my thinking, GOI may stick to only 2 vendors and never think about German ones at all..

 

[zambino]

Yes bcz at present barring the Chakra the rest of them are not at the very best condition as well as does not meet the today world's need.. They are good for littorial warfare but we need deeper sea capable ones.

Thats why i chose 3.. The Russian especially Amur -Yasen in between can dive much deeper and are heavier thus, it gives an awesome deep sea capability to lurk and do what they do in devastating fashion
Scorpene is a small sub as compared to russians ones also its lower tonnage makes it nimble and agile. An excellent choice for conventional subs. Its depth max is around 350m easily wherease amur 250m Yasen goes 600m+ easily. (Kilo subs dive depth is also around 300 m)
Dolphin is in the same zone around 300-350m dive depth but since i am saying specific modicfication in line with Israeli ones, these subs would be Nirbhay SLCM N Cabale making a very distinct sub selection for 2nd strike implying
Arihant Class - K15 only
Dolphin- Nirbhay SLCM
Future N SSBNs - Major K4/K5 combination

Again this is my thinking, GOI may stick to only 2 vendors and never think about German ones at all..

What are the views of prasun and Saurav regarding dolphin class in IN ??

 

[PARIKRAMA]

What are the views of prasun and Saurav regarding dolphin class in IN ??

Not sure if they have said anything about that.. Perhaps we have to ask them. As of now i don know which submarines are planned for N SLCM capability or P75I is suppose to have that capability... If we say we are suppose to have both Brahmos and Nirmbhay together, we are looking at a large tonnage sub to fit the UVLS and perhaps a modified 533/633 mm torpedo tube would be required.

For example in Dophin class for Israel
While the standard Popeye is 533 mm the Dolphin class submarines have four 650 mm torpedo tubes in addition to the six standard 533 mm tubes allowing for the possibility that a SLCM Popeye derivative may be a larger diameter.

This statement also seems to suggests N SLCMs may have a larger diameter than 633 more like 650M and length may be longer to accommodate more fuel and give extensive range. Thus, i believe our own Nirbhay may also require a bit of modification to be launched from Torpedo tubes.

We can of course get both in P75I if we chose wisely and specify clearly at the onset. But getting P75I into selection, production, sea trials and final induction is a long time frame. Thats why the suggestion of Dolphin Class to fill the gaps asap.

BTW this is what i found in PSK archives

The Indian Navy for Project 75I wants an ocean-going SSK larger than the Scorpene and therefore the Dolphin-class SSK makes more sense, instead of the Class 214. The S-800 is a re-engineered Amur 1650 with technological upgradations from Fincantieri. The S-800 will use a fuel cell-based AIP system while the French Scorpene will use the MESMA AIP system. The Spanish S-80 Scorpene, on the other hand, will use an ethanol-based AIP system. All SSKs equipped with torpedo tubes can fire the Novator Club-S. None of the four Class 209/Type 1500 SSKs will be fitted with AIP systems. The Indian Navy evaluated and rejected this option five years ago. Their torpedo tubes can fire anti-ship cruise missiles, but the Navy has decided against installation of this capability on these SSKs.

The Dolphin also has customised 650mm torpedo tubes meant for launching land attack cruise missiles.

For the Project 75I reqmt, the Dolphin-class SSK equipped with a fuel cell-based AIP mobule will be the best bet--this being my personal opinion. Since the Indian Navy has mandated that it will only procure SSKs (under Project 75I) incorporating fuel cell-based AIP systems, this rules out the French Scorpene/MESMA, SSKs built by Kockums and powered by Stirling engine-based AIP, and the Spanish S-80 Scorpene powered by an ethanol-based AIP system. That leaves only the S-800 from Fincantieri, Dolphin-class SSK from HDW, and the Amur 1650 from Russia as the main contenders. If these three, the best available sonar suite/combat management system comes from Germany's ATLAS Elektronik (the ISUS-90/CSU-90 combination, which is already operational with the Indian Navy's four Class 209/Type 1500 SSKs).

TRISHUL: OSF And Skyward IRST Sensors

 

[migflug]

Not sure if they have said anything about that.. Perhaps we have to ask them. As of now i don know which submarines are planned for N SLCM capability or P75I is suppose to have that capability... If we say we are suppose to have both Brahmos and Nirmbhay together, we are looking at a large tonnage sub to fit the UVLS and perhaps a modified 533/633 mm torpedo tube would be required.

For example in Dophin class for Israel
While the standard Popeye is 533 mm the Dolphin class submarines have four 650 mm torpedo tubes in addition to the six standard 533 mm tubes allowing for the possibility that a SLCM Popeye derivative may be a larger diameter.

This statement also seems to suggests N SLCMs may have a larger diameter than 633 more like 650M and length may be longer to accommodate more fuel and give extensive range. Thus, i believe our own Nirbhay may also require a bit of modification to be launched from Torpedo tubes.

We can of course get both in P75I if we chose wisely and specify clearly at the onset. But getting P75I into selection, production, sea trials and final induction is a long time frame. Thats why the suggestion of Dolphin Class to fill the gaps asap.

BTW this is what i found in PSK archives

The Indian Navy for Project 75I wants an ocean-going SSK larger than the Scorpene and therefore the Dolphin-class SSK makes more sense, instead of the Class 214. The S-800 is a re-engineered Amur 1650 with technological upgradations from Fincantieri. The S-800 will use a fuel cell-based AIP system while the French Scorpene will use the MESMA AIP system. The Spanish S-80 Scorpene, on the other hand, will use an ethanol-based AIP system. All SSKs equipped with torpedo tubes can fire the Novator Club-S. None of the four Class 209/Type 1500 SSKs will be fitted with AIP systems. The Indian Navy evaluated and rejected this option five years ago. Their torpedo tubes can fire anti-ship cruise missiles, but the Navy has decided against installation of this capability on these SSKs.

The Dolphin also has customised 650mm torpedo tubes meant for launching land attack cruise missiles.

For the Project 75I reqmt, the Dolphin-class SSK equipped with a fuel cell-based AIP mobule will be the best bet--this being my personal opinion. Since the Indian Navy has mandated that it will only procure SSKs (under Project 75I) incorporating fuel cell-based AIP systems, this rules out the French Scorpene/MESMA, SSKs built by Kockums and powered by Stirling engine-based AIP, and the Spanish S-80 Scorpene powered by an ethanol-based AIP system. That leaves only the S-800 from Fincantieri, Dolphin-class SSK from HDW, and the Amur 1650 from Russia as the main contenders. If these three, the best available sonar suite/combat management system comes from Germany's ATLAS Elektronik (the ISUS-90/CSU-90 combination, which is already operational with the Indian Navy's four Class 209/Type 1500 SSKs).

TRISHUL: OSF And Skyward IRST Sensors

Any news on type 216.both 216 or Soryu class are of similar wt class.while Amur is quite small.I remember a comparison between 214 and Amur 1650 in which 214 clearly won. I believe we should go for either 214/216 or soryu( if Japan agrees). Although we had great help from Russia in ssbn development, we need to diversify our market. We can't we dependent on Russia forevor

 

[INDIAISM]

So India will finally have a large fleet of attack submarines though It will take some time...
6+4 scorpenes.
6 P-75I with VLS for Brahmos/Nirbhay.
6 Indigenous SSNs.
2/3 Russian SSNs on lease.
I am only counting projects which is already announced or under process.


Well Saurav Jha had said something like this too in past. He predicted that navy will go for 3 more scorpenes if I remember correctly.

You forgot to Include 4 SSBN...

 

[kaykay]

You forgot to Include 4 SSBN...

No I selectively left them as they are not attack subs.

 

[Echo_419]

Why all eggs are in mazagon, we should divercify our expertise in submarine/shipbuilding to other shipyads. Proximity of mazagon with Pakistan is a very dangerous scenario, a single nuk strike by Pakistan on Mumbai in the event of war will destroy all know how.

If it is targeted by a nuke all is lost anyway

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Any news on type 216.both 216 or Soryu class are of similar wt class.while Amur is quite small.I remember a comparison between 214 and Amur 1650 in which 214 clearly won. I believe we should go for either 214/216 or soryu( if Japan agrees). Although we had great help from Russia in ssbn development, we need to diversify our market. We can't we dependent on Russia forevor

Soryu looks difficult even though Australia may get soryu based on an advanced deal but keel may be laid down around 2023 perhaps, launch around 2026 and commissioning around 2029.
Submarine Matters: Likely Specs of the Future Japanese Submarine for Australia

For exporting such weapons the japanese govt needs a major changes in their constitution.Fi we really want to see if soryu may come for India or not perhaps we first need to check the US2 sales getting inked.

Further pete also explained Soryu cost and tonnage (3000 tonnes surfaced) whereas he estimates india is looking around 1800 tonnes surfaced sub

Type 216 has a surface displacement of 4000 tonnes..Unless Chancellor Merkel may have pushed the sales , the enormous size looks a bit far fetched for the needs of IN. Compare it with Amur 1650 whose surfaced tonnage is around 1765 Tonnes

Well if we want far more torpedoes reloaded for firing especially for an area denial type with sinking of merchant ships in mind, then 216 makes sense as it carries way too many torpedoes (reloaded) because of its size. Personally i feel its a waste of cost and space.

An example is cost example between some
:
Israel March 2012,
HDW hands Israel’s 4th submarine over to the Israeli Navy, at a ceremony in Kiel, Germany. The new boat is due to enter service in 2013, following at-sea testing and evaluation. The Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz places Tanin’s cost at $500 million, as part of a EUR 1.4/ $ 2.04 billion overall cost for boats #4-6. In return, they report that the German government will cover 33% of the total cost, and buy another EUR 400 million worth of equipment from Israeli suppliers
Germany Sells Israel Dolphin-II Subs

Soryu is expected to cost 20Bn$ plus for a deal of 8-10 subs putting its cost at almost 2bn$ plus per sub for australia. (nothing offcial as of now)

Type 216 is suppose to cost around 1 Bn euros+ as a special modified 216 codenamed Type 218 cost for singapore is in the range of $1.4 Bn + which was signded i think 2 years back


If surfaced tonnage is a very strong parameter with cost then both Type 216 and Soryu is sure shot eliminated. beacsue both these subs are very costly.

BTW a dark horse:
DCNS offered the Super Scorpene design, with MESMA AIP. The French claim the submarine design can be fitted with a nuclear propulsion package plug on the lines of the French nuclear submarine of the Rubis class.
PSK said P75I may have Scorpenes only but with N propulsion..

 

[Agent_47]

Yes bcz at present barring the Chakra the rest of them are not at the very best condition as well as does not meet the today world's need.. They are good for littorial warfare but we need deeper sea capable ones.

Thats why i chose 3.. The Russian especially Amur -Yasen in between can dive much deeper and are heavier thus, it gives an awesome deep sea capability to lurk and do what they do in devastating fashion
Scorpene is a small sub as compared to russians ones also its lower tonnage makes it nimble and agile. An excellent choice for conventional subs. Its depth max is around 350m easily wherease amur 250m Yasen goes 600m+ easily. (Kilo subs dive depth is also around 300 m)
Dolphin is in the same zone around 300-350m dive depth but since i am saying specific modicfication in line with Israeli ones, these subs would be Nirbhay SLCM N Cabale making a very distinct sub selection for 2nd strike implying
Arihant Class - K15 only
Dolphin- Nirbhay SLCM
Future N SSBNs - Major K4/K5 combination

Again this is my thinking, GOI may stick to only 2 vendors and never think about German ones at all..

You are missing an important piece in the puzzle. 'Project 76 submarines '

A top Navy officer told ET that the government has cleared the project on the condition that all future acquisitions of conventional submarines will be based on an indigenous design and produced at Indian shipyards. The Navy has accordingly initiated a futuristic design plan even though the next batch of conventional submarines under Project 76 would take several more years before a firm order is placed..

Indian Navy's submarines to be made locally; Rs 60,000-cr P75 I will be last order from abroad - timesofindia-economictimes

According to earlier plans 24 SSKs to be made by 2030. Which is now revised to 18 SSKs and 6 SSNs.
P75 6 + P75I 6 + P76 6 = 18.
That means every new or follow on orders of Project 75 will affect project 76 directly, which is the main reason Navy was reluctant to order follow on till now.
Maybe MoD is ready to revise the submarine building numbers and increase is substantially considering PN 10+ and PLN 60+ subs dwarfs it.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

You are missing an important piece in the puzzle. 'Project 76 submarines '


Indian Navy's submarines to be made locally; Rs 60,000-cr P75 I will be last order from abroad - timesofindia-economictimes

According to earlier plans 24 SSKs to be made by 2030. Which is now revised to 18 SSKs and 6 SSNs.
P75 6 + P75I 6 + P76 6 = 18.
That means every new or follow on orders of Project 75 will affect project 76 directly, which is the main reason Navy was reluctant to order follow on till now.
Maybe MoD is ready to revise the submarine building numbers and increase is substantially considering PN 10+ and PLN 60+ subs dwarfs it.

Thanks a ton pointing it out.
In all i just forgot abt P76. Perhaps if P76 has a UVLS system attached with may be a 650mm tube modifed for launching Brahmos/Nirbhay Combo VLS or via SLCM torpedo mode operation, then we can forget about HDW Dolphin II discussions as i was suggesting. Bcz it makes sense to get it done there. The only issue is the time period for sucha project. If we order now we get it max all by 2025 whereas P75I itself looks a bit difficult by 2025 timelines, as laying of keel to commissioning does have a gap. Unless all 6 are ordered from abroad which may go against MII scheme. So perhaps a hybrid option may be there or as u suggested

 

[Agent_47]

Thanks a ton pointing it out.
In all i just forgot abt P76. Perhaps if P76 has a UVLS system attached with may be a 650mm tube modifed for launching Brahmos/Nirbhay Combo VLS or via SLCM torpedo mode operation, then we can forget about HDW Dolphin II discussions as i was suggesting. Bcz it makes sense to get it done there. The only issue is the time period for sucha project. If we order now we get it max all by 2025 whereas P75I itself looks a bit difficult by 2025 timelines, as laying of keel to commissioning does have a gap. Unless all 6 are ordered from abroad which may go against MII scheme. So perhaps a hybrid option may be there or as u suggested

If we have issued RFP by now there are no major submarine shortage (other than media cry).
5 kilos already upgraded, 2 u209 and 4 killo already cleared for upgrade. when considering scorpion introduction.
By 2021-22 we will have 17 capable SSKs (with ashm firing and new sonars and stuff) (+ 1-2 leased Akula)

I think IN is making a case for more scorpions and revised submarine plan by delaying RFP. Otherwise WTH?. P75I has already cleared by this govt 6 months ago. New govt's insistence on making all P75I in home has made IN sceptical of the delivery time.So, more scorpians are the way to go.
To make project 76 viable its number should be more than 6.

Don't you think we have enough time to make 18 SSKs by 2030-32.?
Hell,we can make it 24 (if the new plan demands) considering 3-4 shipyards is participating the process.

 

[zambino]

So it will be very very interesting which submarine IN choose - soryu , type 214., dolphin or Amur. Fingers crossed

 

[PARIKRAMA]

If we have issued RFP by now there are no major submarine shortage (other than media cry).
5 kilos already upgraded, 2 u209 and 4 killo already cleared for upgrade. when considering scorpion introduction.
By 2021-22 we will have 17 capable SSKs (with ashm firing and new sonars and stuff) (+ 1-2 leased Akula)

I think IN is making a case for more scorpions and revised submarine plan by delaying RFP. Otherwise WTH?. P75I has already cleared by this govt 6 months ago. New govt's insistence on making all P75I in home has made IN sceptical of the delivery time.So, more scorpians are the way to go.
To make project 76 viable its number should be more than 6.

Don't you think we have enough time to make 18 SSKs by 2030-32.?
Hell,we can make it 24 (if the new plan demands) considering 3-4 shipyards is participating the process.

In many sense, the kilo class or Project 877EKM have very low noise levels and are considered extremely dangerous by US Navy.They have very low Noise levels and are dubbed as black holes in the ocean bcz they are nearly undetectable once submerged.

Note Missiles: The vessels can be fitted with the Novator Club-S (SS-N-27) cruise missile system which fires the 3M-54E1 anti-ship missile. Range is 220km with 450kg high-explosive warhead. or Kilo can be fitted with similar weaponry as the Exocet SM39 Block II


With Pipavav signing JV with Zvyozdochkasubmarine for overhauling all kilo subs making it a regional MRO outside Russia in july 2015 augurs well for all of Indian Kilo subs
What we need to see is beyond refit how many years it can operate as it has to be classified as either a minor refit or a deeper medium refit and life certitication done every 15 years for a total life of 30 years. It is this which may provide us with extensive new sensors, weapons and communication upgradations.It will also help in inspecting, replacing and repairing both the worn out parts of the hulls (inner "pressure hull" and outer hull)
What is unclear is whether GOI will agree in giving Pipavav all he upgradation of Kilos in Indian Navy.

Interestingly, This JV may enable Pipavav to also manufacture Kilo subs in India but not P75I which has distinct need of UVLS and AIP. So we may still get new Kilos outside P75I/P76 too - thats an option GOI has on table and should exercise if the price is good. That may give a tremendous boost to pvt sector.

The Kilos upgraded in numbers if deployed around western sea then its enough i guess for Area Denial operations or Anti Piracy operations too. But these subs are no match to more capable subs of PLAN. This is where i dont feel comfortable with them even with their upgrades. The mainstream media may paint any color but these are good subs in littoral waters. But i do presume we need deeper ocean depth subs which can do longer patrolling at open oceans and quietly sneak in around hostile territories as part of becoming a proper blue ocean navy. This is known as "extended dive endurance" (clearly because of AIP)

Now if i further break it down and say we need subs which can do

• anti-surface warfare
• anti-submarine warfare
• special operations
• intelligence gathering
• offensive minelaying
• area surveillance and blockade
• land strikes against land-based objectives

etc

The Kilo main trump card is its cost effectivemess which gave developing nation a chance to procure strategic under sea capabilities with a fraction of a price but in greater quantity and this is important. So our procurement of yesteryears and its upgrades does make sense. But going forward with more capable submarines and far more complex operations in hand with advancement in ASW capabilities, they dont pack the same punch what they may have 15 years back.


So for next 15 years, i do believe that a legacy system like Kilo class subs may not be effective for Indian navy needs. IF we do want a credible sub fleet, we need many subs beyond Kilos to be there by 2025-30 timelines an dof course beyond 2030 timelines, the maturity of N sub program should come online.

 

[GURU DUTT]

So it will be very very interesting which submarine IN choose - soryu , type 214., dolphin or Amur. Fingers crossed

looks like its gonna be type 214 or dolphin to me