I highly doubt it's a Ponzi scheme...someone has to benefit from a Ponzi scheme...
If banks are handing out capital to manufacturing businesses and government is providing subsidies only for these businesses to then sell their products at a loss...where is the gain?
I think it's just the general trend...
Japan had the meteoric rise due to its immense manufacturing capabilities and then it tapered off due to a host of reasons
- Tough competition from emerging South Korean/Chinese companies in the same fields where Japan used to lead
- Japan being a developed country(as opposed to an emerging South Korea and China a few decades ago) had a higher cost of living, which is only natural in developed countries...thus couldn't compete with Chinese/South Korean labor costs
- Japan saw a decline in the population of its young ppl, tapering off of population growth is also a trend that happens in developed countries. Moreover bcuz of better healthcare, the old ppl live longer than ever(which contribute less and are rather more dependent on the government/tax payer money in terms of benefits they receive).
Taiwan and South Korea are still doing fine so far but as u will see in all the cases including US and Europe(some of the first of the industrialized countries)...the trend is as follows...
Let's imagine a non developed country X that's starting to industrialize...
- Industrialization starts...providing ppl with jobs
- On average ppl are not that well off in that economy that is barely starting to industrialize...and therefore they are willing to work at low wages...
- other factors that keep wages low is the sheer amount of competition for those jobs...bcuz non developed countries generally have growing population...so fewer jobs and more ppl looking for jobs lead to low wages
- The cost of living is generally lower in non developed countries, which makes it more affordable for ppl to work at low wages and still get by
- Then overtime as the economy starts to take off(due to exports of cheap goods manufactured by cheap labor)...these ppl with jobs are able to educate their children...spend more...and generation after generation there's a rise in the standard of living, literacy rate, the population growth also starts tapering off, and ppl generally start living longer due to better healthcare
- As more of more of the above happens...the cost of living starts going up leading ppl to demand higher wages, which in turn leads to an even higher cost of everyday goods
- Then when the labor costs become too high for businesses...they generally up and leave to some next country where cheap labor is en masses and hungry for jobs...so that they can still be competitive and potentially have bigger profit margins by keeping production cost low.
This above has been the trend...increasingly so as the world has become ever more interconnected and a global village of sorts. European countries had an industrial boom and now these countries' economies(manufacturing sector and economies in general) is ranging from "ok" to "barely getting by". Germany was once a powerhouse of industry...and now though still a major European economy...it's not what it once was. Same goes for France and UK. Other countries like Italy and Spain are doing slightly worse...while still others like Greece are just about on the brink of bankruptcy(though that has more to do with their policies and expenditures...but a downward trend of their economy didn't help). US went strong for a long time until its manufacturing sector left for greener pastures mostly to Asian countries. That is how the cycle goes...China has barely seen this growth for the last few decades and though standard of living is rising...it has a massive population and so the trend that has happened with all the other countries so far will take time before China can no longer provide cheap labor...and then the manufacturing sector would probably just up and leave to some other country.