Make a bet with CNN that China will not have millions of deaths from the new crown
Author:Zheng Zhen
publishing:2022-12-21 08:30renew:2022-12-21 11:15
Since China announced a significant relaxation of the epidemic prevention policy on December 7, the mutated strain of Omicron has spread rapidly in big cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou. At one time, there were queues at fever clinics, and shortages of antipyretics and antigen reagents. In addition to the treatment of mild cases, the general concern of all parties is how many deaths Omicron will bring.
Reuters quoted the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the United States as saying that within 2023, China's sudden lifting of strict restrictions on the new crown virus epidemic could lead to a surge in cases, with more than 1 million people. die.
According to CNN, according to a paper published on the Medrxiv preprint server last Wednesday (December 14), disease modelers at the University of Hong Kong predicted that, based on China's population of 1.41 billion, if there is no large-scale promotion of vaccination With the strengthening of measures such as needles, the death toll will reach 964,400.
Given China's huge population base, judging from the forecasts published by these foreign media, millions of deaths are inevitable. But will China really have millions of deaths due to the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures? not necessarily!
First of all, the above predictions are based on assumptions, that is, loosening control and not advocating large-scale vaccination booster shots and other measures. The reality is that China's vaccination rate has remained at a relatively high level in the past three years since the epidemic, and the proportion of Chinese people who have completed two shots of vaccination has exceeded 90%. According to data from the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of China, as of November 28, the number of people over the age of 60 who have been fully vaccinated accounted for 86.42% of the elderly population in China, while the number of people over the age of 80 who had been fully vaccinated accounted for only 65.8% of the population over the age of 80.
Simultaneously with the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control, there is also the acceleration of the vaccination of the elderly against the new crown virus. At present, many places in China have made it clear that by the end of this year or January next year, the vaccination rate of the first dose of the new coronavirus vaccine for people over 80 years old will reach 90%; 95%. For example, Yexian County, Henan Province, China issued a notice on December 9, two days after the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, requiring all units to make full use of big data methods, combined with "door-knocking action" to verify door-to-door, accurately find out the base number of target groups over 60 years old, and establish The account of the target group is mobilized and sold one by one.
Judging from the above measures, the situation in China is far from reaching the point where the worst Omicron strain spreads naturally. The vaccine has established a basic protective barrier, which can effectively reduce the fatality rate, and there may not be a million deaths.
Secondly, from the past experience of epidemic prevention and control, the fatality rate is largely related to whether the supply of medical resources is sufficient. In the past three years of epidemic prevention and control, China's medical resources have been effectively expanded.
As early as July this year, media reports in mainland China showed that within a month, hundreds of shelter hospitals were born. The notice issued by China's National Health and Medical Commission in July also clarified the equipment configuration standards for shelter hospitals. There are 53 types of medical equipment, including central monitoring systems, electrocardiogram machines, defibrillation monitors, automatic blood analyzers, specific protein analyzers, prescription Cabin CT/vehicle CT, etc.
After relaxing the epidemic prevention and control measures on December 7, the Chinese government issued a special notice again on December 11, emphasizing the medical services for COVID-19 in rural areas, and required that the preparation of critical care medical resources and majors of critical care medicine be completed by the end of December. Relevant medical staff prepare, strengthen the construction of buffer wards, and do a good job in the construction of the Department of Infectious Diseases.
In China's official notice, the above four goals have specific numerical requirements, such as the requirement to speed up the construction and upgrading of comprehensive intensive care (ICU) monitoring units, and ensure the number of comprehensive ICU beds used to treat critically ill patients with new crowns Not less than 4% of the total number of beds actually opened in the hospital. One ICU bed is required to be equipped with one doctor and 2.5-3 nurses, each shift is 8-12 hours, and 20-30% more medical staff will be added as a backup force. It is required to guide and check the construction and renovation of the intensive care unit of county-level hospitals.
China is stepping up preparations for the spread of the epidemic to vast rural areas. Expanding medical resources for emergency rescue in just over half a month is an arduous task, and whether it can be completed will directly affect the number of deaths.
The biggest difference between China's epidemic prevention and control and other countries such as the United States is that the treatment resources such as hospitals are in the hands of the government, and the proportion of private hospitals in China's medical system is quite low. The mobilization and coordination capabilities of the Chinese government have been effectively tested in the past three years of epidemic prevention and control. This has laid the foundation for China to quickly optimize emergency rescue resources and effectively reduce the fatality rate. Therefore, it is arbitrary to speculate that millions of people will die in China without considering China's special national conditions.
Third, it is not scientific to rely on mathematical models and the experience of other countries to predict the epidemic situation in China. The current consensus about Omicron around the world is that the lethality rate has been greatly reduced compared with the original strain and Delta. Moreover, the death rate varies from country to country and from time to time. Different countries have different statistics on deaths from the new crown and those who died with the new crown.
China announced that the death toll from the Wuhan epidemic in 2020 is 3,869, while the United States estimates the death toll from the Wuhan epidemic to be more than 40,000 based on its own situation, a difference of more than ten times. According to the data released by the World Health Organization in May this year, the mortality rate in Africa is as high as 2%, while in Singapore it is as low as 0.1%, a difference of 20 times. Even in developed regions, the data of Singapore and Hong Kong are also very different. The fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong The mortality rate was 0.75%.
According to Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the current data parameters in the United States, Hong Kong and other places generally infer that the fatality rate of the epidemic in China this winter is estimated to be between 0.09% and 0.16%. Judging from the numbers, the fatality rate is not much different, but China has a huge population base, and the calculated fatality rate of 0.09% and 0.16% differ by hundreds of thousands.
Therefore, whether it is applicable to predict the epidemic situation in a country with a population of 1.4 billion by mathematical models is not yet known. The cumulative death toll in the United States in the past three years has exceeded 1.1 million. However, it is obviously too early for foreign media to cite individual studies to conclusively speculate that there may be millions of deaths in China at the beginning of the epidemic prevention and control in China. I hope that the discussion around the death toll is just a discussion based on mathematical models, rather than a premeditated public opinion war.
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Based on the death rate of the new crown in Hong Kong, it is estimated that there may be hundreds of thousands of deaths in the Mainland? Zhong Nanshan: I don’t believe this will happen
Author:Xu Qi'an
publishing:2022-12-10 20:11renew:2022-12-10 22:54
The mainland announced 10 new anti-epidemic measures on Wednesday (7th), significantly relaxing measures such as isolation, testing and the use of health codes. The outside world is worried about whether large-scale deaths will be caused. Some people even estimate that hundreds of thousands of people may die in the Mainland based on the death rate of the fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong.
In response to this, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, responded in an interview on the 9th, "I don't believe this will happen." He denied this hypothesis. He also pointed out that the booster vaccination rate for people over 60 years old in the Mainland has reached 68.86%, which is much better than that in Hong Kong at that time (before May).
As for when can we restore the pre-epidemic life in 2019? Zhong Nanshan pointed out that it is expected to be in the first half of next year, after March, but he emphasized that he cannot guarantee it, "it should be around this time depending on the trend."
"Southern +" reported that on December 9, Zhong Nanshan and two members of his team: Li Yimin, Secretary of the Party Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Chief Physician of the Department of Critical Care Medicine, and Professor Yang Zifeng, Vice President of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, were interviewed in Guangzhou .
Regarding the changes in the prevention and control of the epidemic in the mainland, Zhong Nanshan pointed out that the current focus of prevention should shift from "prevention of infection to prevention of severe disease", and strengthening the new crown vaccination is the key to the next step. According to the team's model calculations, it is expected that the peak of the first wave of infections in Guangzhou may come in mid-to-early January to mid-February next year, and enter a stable stage in mid-to-early March. It is optimistic that it will return to the pre-epidemic life in the first half of next year.
Yang Zifeng said that according to the characteristics of the Omicron mutant strain and the current situation of vaccination in China, and with reference to the situation in Hong Kong and Japan, the peak of infection in Guangzhou may come from mid-to-early January to mid-February next year. As we adopt a series of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to wait for the pressure peak, it is expected to enter a stable stage in the middle and early March."
Zhong Nanshan said that looking back on the three years of the new crown epidemic, before the emergence of the Omicron virus strain, the cumulative number of people infected with the new crown in China was about 100,000, and the case fatality rate (death/confirmed number) was 4.65%. After Omicron entered China, especially since September, through the analysis of relevant data in Guangzhou, Chengdu and other big cities, it was found that the current severe disease rate is less than 1%, and the fatality rate is less than 0.1%. power decreased significantly.
Previously, some people used the death rate of the epidemic in Hong Kong to estimate that hundreds of thousands of people would die nationwide. Zhong Nanshan believed that this assumption was inappropriate and did not believe that this would happen. "
Zhong Nanshan pointed out that when the epidemic broke out in Hong Kong this year, the vaccination rate of the elderly over 60 years old did not exceed 20%, but the vaccination situation in the mainland is now much better than that in Hong Kong before May. He mentioned that as of December 8, the booster vaccination rate for the elderly over 60 years old in the Mainland has reached 68.86%. "Although it is not enough, it is much better than Hong Kong at that time."
In addition, Zhong Nanshan also emphasized again that after being infected with Omicron, 99% of them are not serious. Zhong Nanshan pointed out that most of them can get better within 5 to 7 days. "Don't think that you are afraid of having the new crown, and you should not discriminate against infected people."
Regarding asymptomatic infections, Zhong Nanshan believes, "From a medical point of view, sudden acute infectious diseases, if there are no symptoms, should not be regarded as diseases." In addition, he also said that in the future, the new crown virus may be infected Infection was defined as a novel coronavirus upper respiratory infection.
Regarding the difference between domestic vaccines and imported vaccines in preventing severe diseases, Zhong Nanshan pointed out
that compared with imported vaccines, although domestic vaccines are slightly less effective in preventing infection, they have fewer side effects and better safety.
In addition, he pointed out that studies have shown that after 3 doses of the vaccine, both domestic and imported vaccines are equally effective in preventing severe illness, regardless of laboratory indicators or real-world data. "For the elderly, the most important thing is not to get severe illness. Vaccination, especially full vaccination (including booster shots), has a good protective effect on the elderly to prevent severe illness."
Zhong Nanshan emphasized that in addition to undergoing organ transplants, suffering from severe rheumatism, heart failure, tumors and other diseases, even elderly people with stable underlying diseases can be vaccinated.
Regarding the possibility of Omicron reinfection, Zhong Nanshan responded that Qatar’s research shows that after being infected with Omicron, 78% of people will not be reinfected with Omicron for a long time, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not.
Zhong Nanshan pointed out that a Danish study with a sample size of tens of thousands of people showed that 98% of people can avoid a second Omicron infection as long as they have received Omicron once. "In this sense, getting Omicron is equivalent to being vaccinated." Zhong Nanshan emphasized, "Of course, this is not to encourage everyone to infect Omicron."
內地周三（7日）宣布10項新防疫措施，大幅放寬隔離、檢測及使用健康碼等措施。外界憂心會否造成大規模死亡，更有人以香港第五波疫情的死亡率推估內
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