LoC flare up: August 2013

[Jango]

This is now going to be the main thread for the recent LoC firing incidents. All other threads will be deleted.

Pool up all information over here so we can analyze the issue with some continuity.

 

[Jackdaws]

So why have things spiraled so quickly out of control?

 

[Jango]

So why have things spiraled so quickly out of control?

It isn't out of control...not too much.

 

[Star Wars]

So why have things spiraled so quickly out of control?

Its one of those days when tensions flare up every few months ...everything will be normal in a few days...

 

[Jackdaws]

It isn't out of control...not too much.

Looking at the hysteria of the news anchors, one would think Hitler's invaded Poland and that war is inevitable

 

[sree45]

Let me play the devil's advocate here, It is a ploy by the GoI to put additional burden on Pakistan economy (Mobilizing troops and maintaining more troops close to the border is a costly affair) and at the same time the reduction in troops on western border will help R&AW smuggle weapons and money to support BLA.

It's not what i think, but it's a theory.

 

[Jango]

Looking at the hysteria of the news anchors, one would think Hitler's invaded Poland and that war is inevitable

Meh...your media always does the war mongering...nothing new.

You have Manmohan, we have Nawaz Sharif, nothing will happen!

 

[sree45]

Meh...your media always does the war mongering...nothing new.

You have Manmohan, we have Nawaz Sharif, nothing will happen!

You have zaid hamid, we have arnab goswami

 

[Jango]

You have zaid hamid, we have arnab goswami

At least Zaid Hamid doesn't do prime time shows!

 

[karan.1970]

At least Zaid Hamid doesn't do prime time shows!

That's more to do with the condition of Pakistan's TV and Film industry and not anything else

 

[Jango]

That's more to do with the condition of Pakistan's TV and Film industry and not anything else

Whatever...in the end we don't have any warmongering media!

I'll commend you folks for this, at least your media propagates national views and interests and does not play right into the hands of foreign countries.

 

[sree45]

At least Zaid Hamid doesn't do prime time shows!

Arnab Goswami doesn't bash Pakistan daily. the frequency of Zaid bashing India and Arnab bashing Pakistan is the same.

 

[Awesome]

Let me play the devil's advocate here, It is a ploy by the GoI to put additional burden on Pakistan economy (Mobilizing troops and maintaining more troops close to the border is a costly affair) and at the same time the reduction in troops on western border will help R&AW smuggle weapons and money to support BLA.

It's not what i think, but it's a theory.

Possible. But these things are not executed so well and according to script. My theory is still the most practical kind, you have to understand all the factors

1. New government in Pakistan, easy to blame them
2. End of term for current government in India, they need an issue
3. Indian opposition also needs an issue
4. The thinking in some quarters of IA is that they can conquer Pakistan, just that Delhi is not giving them the go ahead.
5. Ground level COs sometimes get out of control
6. Media of both countries is jingoistic

These are reasons for flare up

Reality is:

1. Politicians on both sides are more concerned with making money than becoming war heroes
2. War will cost money to economy. Budgets are decided at start of year - did any country budget for a war?
3. Internally both sides know these are just goofups by ground troops... but taking things back would be embarrassing.
4. There is always the next issue. This issue is big in India, but not in Pak. As India will get its next issue, they will also move on.

 

[Jango]

3. Internally both sides know these are just goofups by ground troops... but taking things back would be embarrassing.

Very true...some one deep down knows that they were at fault, one country or the other, but nobody will accept it, this goes all around the world...part of human nature. Can't blame anyone.

4. There is always the next issue. This issue is big in India, but not in Pak. As India will get its next issue, they will also move on.

Again, agreed. This issue is pretty low key in Pakistani media, and Pakistani public gets swayed by the media.

We have enough problems already going on, terrorism, Quetta and FATA are more prevalent in the media then this LoC issue. We already have our hands full...

 

[Bang Galore]

@Secur

Gen Musharraf's statement along with a similar one from the foreign minister of that time is on record saying that India backed off from the Kashmir deal after his power started to decline , this has nothing to do with Kiyani who by his actions , seems like a very cautious and pro-democracy man . The power and influence which the last COAS had , cant be expected from Kiyani or any other military or political leader . What makes you think that he doesn't like the current prime minister of Pakistan ? I dont see any statement or action hinting at that .

Gen. Musharraf's declining power did play a major part because the GoI wasn't sure that any agreement reached with him would stick & be agreeable to others in the system. Kayani's was a major voice & he backed off, saying he couldn’t afford to be charged by Islamists of treachery. It was also the reason that nothing could get done with the next regime(PPP) too because both the GoP & the PA were pushing for more. GoI now remains very wary of any agreement because they worry that any agreement & compromise made will simply not be honoured by others in Pakistan.

On Kayani's dislike for NS, that is common knowledge, even on diplomatic cables in wikileaks. It was believed to be the main reason that Kayani didn't overthrow Zardari, because he distrusted NS more than he disliked Zardari.

For the first time ever , it looks like you do have a problem here . Your economy isn't doing that good like it was before . You want to have a trade route with Afghanistan and Central Asia , you have ever growing energy needs , you need to pull millions out of poverty , you need trade for your economy and you need ' peace ' for the growth rate to continue . So , far Pakistan has co-operated with you regarding transit routes and curbing of terrorism . You do not want your trade to be routed through presently sanctioned Iran and troubled Afghanistan . Which is the reason , I believe , I am not really seeing any enthusiasm from the Indian side to cancel the meeting and specially the peace talks , speaks volumes about its importance for you too despite the outrage of the Indian public and massive political pressure . Maybe the desirable has become necessary and you dont even realize it , but the Govt does . Not seeing the big picture . Today's Pakistan has more than co-operation on terrorism to offer .

Not really. Our economy has not much to benefit from links to central asia, afghanistan etc, certainly not as much as you might like to assume. Our growing energy needs will be met, Pakistan will never be the main conduit for that. Iran is presently sanctioned but Pakistan is a far bigger mess than a sanctioned Iran & in any case, ties with Pakistan will simply not improve anytime soon. As I have said many times earlier, Pakistan's asking price (Kashmir) is not something India will ever be willing to pay. As mentioned before, desirable but not necessary.
The government is hardly pursuing ties with Pakistan on a direct economic rationale, believe me, I understand India far better than you do. You have nothing much to offer, certainly not anything that will make us consider your price.

Of course , if the need arises , if nothing can be achieved out of talks , we will take it to Hague . Have we ever asked your permission ?

The International Court of Arbitration depends on the two parties adhering to the IWT. Abrogation would remove jurisdiction. ICJ has no standing on matters between India & Pakistan, the reason why the "Atlantique" case was thrown out.

If you could abrogate it , you would have by now , my friend , but there's no way to abrogate it without facing International pressure and losing face .

It certainly could be abrogated but that is an theoretical argument. Not something that is likely to happen. International pressure? Yeah, most definitely but if India were in such a situation that she considered abrogation, international pressure would not be sufficient. If international pressure hasn't changed Pakistan's behaviour, it would be stupid to assume that India can be stopped.

Hell , you cant even modify and ask for a new treaty , unless Pakistan agrees to . There are limitations that come with signing anything like that .

We don't actually need to. Not now. Pakistan is the one complaining about India violating the "spirit" of the treaty, it is given & accepted at the Hague, that India is not violating the law. When plenty can still be done with altering anything, why bother. I only pointed out that just like Pakistan violated an agreement like the LoC during Kargil, the IWT is no permanent holy cow. If push came to shove, it too could be in the firing line......"Could" being the operative word.