Libyan Civil War Thread

[Mhmoud]

If Trump acts on impulse and supports LNA the war will be over quickly. Haftar is meeting Trump on June 15th and if Sisi, MBZ, and MBS push him he will probably succumb.


I have been using Libya.liveuamap.com for a long time already.

I think that Putin's refusal to meet Haftar is a strong enough signal that he might not be the best partner in Libya. And there are rumors of Haftar's scheduled meeting with Trump, but that is what they are, rumors. Trump won't just beat his chest like King Kong and order an invasion of Libya. And also, if Haftar enters the US, I would be surprised at his guts because he is under investigation for war crimes and may be apprehended at any time. Maybe his throne is a bed at a DC federal prison.

 

[Philip the Arab]

I think that Putin's refusal to meet Haftar is a strong enough signal that he might not be the best partner in Libya. And there are rumors of Haftar's scheduled meeting with Trump, but that is what they are, rumors. Trump won't just beat his chest like King Kong and order an invasion of Libya. And also, if Haftar enters the US, I would be surprised at his guts because he is under investigation for war crimes and may be apprehended at any time. Maybe his throne is a bed at a DC federal prison.

You actually think Trump would arrest Haftar? They had a phone call before and Trump praised him. As I said before Sisi, MBS, and MBZ put a lot of pressure on Trump to support Haftar and he somewhat has. Trump has a fetish for autocratic strong men.

 

[Saddam Hussein]

Another retarded and completely pointless conflict.

Some of the good things about those civil wars in the 3-4 Arab (Iraq, not so much anymore, Syria, Libya and Yemen) countries that suffer from this is that the people in those countries will eventually wake up and learn from their past mistakes. That unity is the only way forward. That when one part of the body (Arab world) is sick others will be impacted one way or another. The "leaders" have failed tremendously but when there are few good examples (contemporary history) to draw from in said countries, it is always more difficult.

BTW such things mostly happen in countries with a weak central government and too many opportunistic people.

But this is the situation nowadays. Instead of a few large Arab states we have 20+. Some want more. I propose a country for each of the 500 million Arabs. Everyone will be a ruler of their own. After all every Arab is a sheikh as an Arab saying goes.

The danger is that those useless, often internal conflicts enable outsider states to implement their plans which result in carved up states, lands stolen and all the negative plans they have been unable to execute for the decades prior to those conflicts. Arab inter-meddling can be negative, but poses different risks as other Arab states are not going to impose a different language or culture over a country, there's nothing to change about it. Saddam did wrong to Kuwait but he couldn't do anything but Arabize it further?.

Syria and Libya pose the biggest areas where foreigners are meddling, it's being handled weakly

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

The danger is that those useless, often internal conflicts enable outsider states to implement their plans which result in carved up states, lands stolen and all the negative plans they have been unable to execute for the decades prior to those conflicts. Arab inter-meddling can be negative, but poses different risks as other Arab states are not going to impose a different language or culture over a country, there's nothing to change about it. Saddam did wrong to Kuwait but he couldn't do anything but Arabize it further?.

Syria and Libya pose the biggest areas where foreigners are meddling, it's being handled weakly

That is the problem when you have 20 independent states, most ruled by regimes only interested in their own thrones and short-term goals who have disgraced their own citizens, let alone being able to help other Arabs. This obviously invites opportunistic outsiders to meddle like throughout all of recorded history. Every civilization that followed another or every empire that followed another or kingdom rose/took over due to internal and external problems faced by the predecessors. Be it in the Islamic era or pre-Islamic era.

That is why the Arab people, youth in particular, who we all know want cooperation and not internal or external conflict, even the minority of sectarian retards, if educated enough and if being able to see the wider picture, can see that they are shooting themselves in the foot.

The Yemen war could be avoided as well but that country, unfortunately, has been in chaos for as long as Iraq. Weak state. Southerners (some) wanting their own state again. Northerners the same. A bit like the Kurd-Arab dynamic in Iraq but much less so. But more pathetic as they are the same people.

It is due to most people being trash, sadly. Egoistic and power hungry people who would even kill their own mothers and relatives for some monetary gains, fame or power. That and some people not having any visions or goals. Only caring about simple things in life. For them it does not matter if x or y rules in Baghdad, Riyadh, Cairo, Damascus or Tripoli or elsewhere. As long as their basic essentials are met (food, safety, basic access to modern technology, family and friends) etc.

Only people that look at bigger goals and the wider picture are interested in what we are even discussing. For most Arabs, Muslims and people as a whole conflicts far away, even if relating to people that they have ties with one way or another, are of little importance. Just like within a country itself. You think that some rich kid from Tehran cares about some struggling Baloch 1500 km away or Iranian Arab or someone else at the end of the day? Or similar in KSA or Iraq? No chance.

That is why states as a whole should have bigger goals and policies than just economics, providing welfare, public institutions etc. They should have and follow real visions and in the case of the Arab world, which is the need of the hour, that vision (among others) should be greater Arab unity on every front. This can start from the smallest change and problem. Something like seen recently between KSA and Iraq where a new chapter was opened and essentials such as the border reopening, direct daily flights restarting, firms from both countries being welcomed and trade eased. As well as intellectuals and religious figures visiting each other and exchanging opinions regardless of how symbolic that is.

Intellectuals, politicians (should be of a certain intellectual standard to even have a say in a country's policy), clerics, people in entertainment should work towards greater things. But most do not.

So us wasting time online writing about how retarted it is for a Libyan in Benghazi using Egyptian/UAE weaponry killing a Libyan from Tripoli using Qatari/Turkish/whatever weapons given to them, is a waste of time. When you have trash in the region who want to kill due to nationality and sect alone or politics you are up against human stupidity. It is a battle that you cannot completely win (ever) but you can win as many small battles as possible and that should be the goal but it can only happen if, in this case, Arab countries work together and their policies reflect the people which they currently do not. Yes, the Qatari leadership is trash in my eyes (probably not if you ask a Qatari citizen as they live very well) but that does not mean that I want to start a war with Qatar or kill their citizens. But I imagine that some would if they got the opportunity for whatever reason.

 

[Mhmoud]

You actually think Trump would arrest Haftar? They had a phone call before and Trump praised him. As I said before Sisi, MBS, and MBZ put a lot of pressure on Trump to support Haftar and he somewhat has. Trump has a fetish for autocratic strong men.

Not Trump, but the Department of Justice. Trump is a small component of the US Government, and US policy notwithstanding him is pro-GNA. And also, he may also be put on a Congressional trial, since the Congress doesn't like him either.

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

@Mhmoud

Let us pretend that Haftar is another Gaddafi in the making. What exactly is the vision of GNA? What have they accomplished so far? What kind of people, clans and tribes support them? Are both sides not involved in war atrocities and killings of civilians?

Excuse me but as an Arab looking at it from the outside and having in mind that the retard Gaddafi was removed almost 10 years ago now, it seems to me that the problems are much deeper than just different political visions and the fight for power.

I see great similiraities between Libya and Yemen in the sense that there are significant regional divisions (politically) and that people in region x or y want some form of independence or self-rule. In Yemen there is the North and South divide and in Libya there is the West and East divide. Not withstanding the very sparsely populated Southern and Central Libya which is mostly non-Arab in population (very small though) in the form of Tuaregs and other Berber inhabitants of the Sahara.

 

[Philip the Arab]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1137300115406934016

@Mhmoud

Let us pretend that Haftar is another Gaddafi in the making. What exactly is the vision of GNA? What have they accomplished so far? What kind of people, clans and tribes support them? Are both sides not involved in war atrocities and killings of civilians?

Excuse me but as an Arab looking at it from the outside and having in mind that the retard Gaddafi was removed almost 10 years ago now, it seems to me that the problems are much deeper than just different political visions and the fight for power.

I see great similiraities between Libya and Yemen in the sense that there are significant regional divisions (politically) and that people in region x or y want some form of independence or self-rule. In Yemen there is the North and South divide and in Libya there is the West and East divide. Not withstanding the very sparsely populated Southern and Central Libya which is mostly non-Arab in population (very small though) in the form of Tuaregs and other Berber inhabitants of the Sahara.

He can't be another Gaddafi, he is 73 years old and the maximum amount of years he can rule is 10-15. After he dies then democracy will most likely happen. I only fear that Islamists will win the elections.

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

He can't be another Gaddafi, he is 73 years old and the maximum amount of years he can rule is 10-15. After he dies then democracy will most likely happen. I only fear that Islamists will win the elections.

"Another Gaddafi" means (in this context) a military guy taking the leadership of a country and ruling said country for x amount of years.

If you ask me the goal of people involved in this current mess (although casualties are small) is for either side to consolidate power and work towards reforms with the other parties involved from a position of strength. When Haftar is supported by (apparently) Egypt next door, UAE, KSA, Jordan and many others, he will most likely win and he already controls 90% of the country and is the strongest and most influential party. However he (Haftar) should be irrelevant as the wider goal should be to prevent the disintegration of Libya as a state by all means possible. The Arab world is in need of strong regional blocs and frankly reunifications rather than more division in the form of newly created independent Arab states. We already have enough of small entities around.

 

[Mhmoud]

@Mhmoud

Let us pretend that Haftar is another Gaddafi in the making. What exactly is the vision of GNA? What have they accomplished so far? What kind of people, clans and tribes support them? Are both sides not involved in war atrocities and killings of civilians?

Excuse me but as an Arab looking at it from the outside and having in mind that the retard Gaddafi was removed almost 10 years ago now, it seems to me that the problems are much deeper than just different political visions and the fight for power.

I see great similiraities between Libya and Yemen in the sense that there are significant regional divisions (politically) and that people in region x or y want some form of independence or self-rule. In Yemen there is the North and South divide and in Libya there is the West and East divide. Not withstanding the very sparsely populated Southern and Central Libya which is mostly non-Arab in population (very small though) in the form of Tuaregs and other Berber inhabitants of the Sahara.

Basically, the GNA's role is as a stopgap measure and a bureaucratic body that can run the state until the constitutional referendum and legislative and executive elections are carried out. It was never meant to be a permanent governing body. And all the elders councils of the cities in the South of Libya and Western Libya are with them, as well as parts of Eastern Libya. Tribes and clans don't really factor very much in Libya, except in the deep South and some remote areas in Eastern Libya. The militias are all under the Ministry of Interior and they operate under it, and are not autonomous. The GNA-allied forces are almost clean in the war crimes sector, and the only high profile incident involving them was the Brak el Shatti incident when they decided to kill all combatants in an airbase. After that incident, the Minister of Interior had to step down and new measures were taken to stop these incidents from happening again. Almost all of the atrocities are singlehandedly committed by the LNA.

It is in itself a fight for power, mostly by proxy and pushed by countries like the UAE and France, in order to install their dictator to power and dominate those lavish contracts to rebuild the country. Most of the country is united after the threat under Haftar became a tangible reality, but there are some issues over the deep involvement of international actors in Libya.

Generally, Libya differs from Yemen in the fact that certain regions don't have different views. Eastern Libya is in complete turmoil and even Egyptian troops are deployed in trying to "keep the order" under Haftar. Everyone hates him a lot, to the point that he extensively uses foreign mercenaries against Libyans opposing him. Although the South is neglected during periods of active war, there isn't any widespread sentiment that questions their Libyanness, just a general consensus that they aren't really treated as well as those in the coastal cities.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1137300115406934016

He can't be another Gaddafi, he is 73 years old and the maximum amount of years he can rule is 10-15. After he dies then democracy will most likely happen. I only fear that Islamists will win the elections.

The issue is that he is already grooming his sons for their leadership, just like Gaddafi did with his son Saif. And his sons are literal bank robbers here. This promise is as empty as the one Sisi made to not go beyone two terms.

 

[HAIDER]

This Haftar guy is very strong .... @Ceylal who is supporting him. Both govt and rebel has jet fighters and air base ..... who is who ?

 

[Mhmoud]

This Haftar guy is very strong .... @Ceylal who is supporting him. Both govt and rebel has jet fighters and air base ..... who is who ?

Somehow you've managed to post a comment that is 100% wrong. Haftar isn't strong, Ceylal isn't supporting him, and there are no rebels, just a warlord.

 

[HAIDER]

Somehow you've managed to post a comment that is 100% wrong. Haftar isn't strong, Ceylal isn't supporting him, and there are no rebels, just a warlord.

but he seems very strong . don't now what he is doing . now he reached Tripoli

 

[Mhmoud]

but he seems very strong . don't now what he is doing . now he reached Tripoli

Through bloodless deals with militias, that is. He only has a very long snaky road of a few towns in the West to logistically support his assault on Tripoli, and you can the blue, white, pink and yellow areas GNA-backed, while almost all of the inland bits are basically desert. Also, ISIS does not exist at all in Libya and has been eradicated since 2017.

 

[The SC]

LNA Establishes Relative Control over Tripoli Airspace

Saturday, 8 June, 2019 - 08:45

LNA air force strikes militia target near Mitiga International Airport. Asharq Al-Awsat

Cairo - Khalid Mahmoud

Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), headed by Prime Minister Faiz al-Sarraj, has been rallying international pressure to block military advances made by the Libyan National Army (LNA) in its operation aimed at liberating the country’s capital.

The GNA’s rush to gain support from Washington came after LNA chief Khalifa Haftar locked full control over Tripoli’s airspace.

In parallel, a prominent US official refuted reports of a meeting being scheduled to bring together Haftar and President Donald Trump.

The official, who requested anonymity, wrote to Asharq Al-Awsat in an e-mail that there are no known plans whatsoever for holding talks with Haftar in Washington.

Rumors of a meeting followed a phone conversation between Trump and Haftar last April.

The GNA, for its part, urged the Trump administration to weigh in politically to end Haftar’s military offensive. Vice Chairman of the GNA’s Presidential Council Ahmed Omar Maiteeq had revealed he recently visited Washington, yet failed to meet with any US official.

Maiteeq, in a Facebook post, said that during his stay he met with a number of Senators and Congressmen, who had expressed US support for the GNA and finding a political solution for the embattled country.

Nevertheless, Maiteeq’s reaffirmations coincided with fierce battles erupting between LNA forces and GNA loyalist militias in Tripoli.

The LNA media center reported air forces conducting raids successfully for the second day in a row, making a solid advance on militia posts near the Mitiga International Airport and managing to destroy a Turkey-made drone.

In the LNA media press release, Major General Abdel Salam al-Hassi said that the downed Turkish drone was targeted after it hit civilian areas in Tripoli’s Qasr bin Ghashir district and in Garyan.

The LNA airforce chased the drone back to the vicinity of Mitiga airport, where it was neutralized before landing at military barracks.

https://aawsat.com/english/home/art...lishes-relative-control-over-tripoli-airspace

"Another Gaddafi" means (in this context) a military guy taking the leadership of a country and ruling said country for x amount of years.

If you ask me the goal of people involved in this current mess (although casualties are small) is for either side to consolidate power and work towards reforms with the other parties involved from a position of strength. When Haftar is supported by (apparently) Egypt next door, UAE, KSA, Jordan and many others, he will most likely win and he already controls 90% of the country and is the strongest and most influential party. However he (Haftar) should be irrelevant as the wider goal should be to prevent the disintegration of Libya as a state by all means possible. The Arab world is in need of strong regional blocs and frankly reunifications rather than more division in the form of newly created independent Arab states. We already have enough of small entities around.

The real problem is that the GNA is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood..and it is supporting them.. while regional powers are against it and thus support Haftar's LNA, because he does not want BM intervening in Libya's politics.. the US also supports this view..

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

@Mhmoud

Well, if the GNA has such big support how come the majority of Libya is under the control of LNA?

Foreign countries supporting the GNA are likewise meddling in Libyan affairs and not doing it for the love of the country but to gain influence. All sides play the same game in other words.



It seems to me (based on events in Libya in the past years) that various militias, tribes, clans can be bought by money and that they are changing alliances frequently.

If there are no regional divide, why have Libyans been unable to establish peace and stability since 2011? Why are they killing each other? After all they are not fighting any foreign enemies but themselves. It is a sad situation much like in Yemen.