You gave a thorough history lesson and a lot of enthusiasm to members here with your post but with a ZERO plan. Wheres the plan ? wheres the military plan to be discussed ? wheres the economic back fall ? wheres the strategy to soften International relations with West and other countries during an event of war ?
On top of it all, can you explain that in current times, How should Pakistan fight 5th gen warfare w.r.t your post if it invades IOK ?
In your historic explanation, you forgot some key points too, Iran shah factor in 60's and 70's for helping Pakistan, is it the same Iran today ? Has geo-politics changed since 50's, 70's, 90's of is it still the same ?
There is a turmoil next door in Afghanistan, can you give solid reasons why Pakistan should enter IOK now and ignore Afghanistan especially when USA withdrawal and Afghan solution is being talked about ?
Can you estimate the number of BSF troops increase within 10 years span 1989-1999 in IOK and whats the situation today ? Furthermore on this, how will Pakistan match the number of troops to sustain a fight in IOK, since Pakistan would need 3:1 superiority in that sector ?
In 1971, do you know how many extra troops were added with 23 Inf Div which penetrated a few miles into IOK ? and how can you match those numbers today when an extra IA Mountain Div will be sitting in Pathankot soon. Do factor in BSF troops and armored forces near Akhnur as well, which were not in same numbers in 65 or 71.
If you think that Pakistan could use proxies in kashmir like before and create unrest in IO-Kashmir, they will be decimated quickly and India will increase its participation in Baluchistan and Sindh. Infact India will capture someone from IOK and parade him on TV for an exchange with Yadav. In any case, there arent much proxies to be used by Pakistan in current times.
What about participation of IO-Kashmiris in an event of war? Do check their participation in 65 , 71 and 99 wars.
Also if you say they are heroic people and will stand up to fight, whats the current status now ?
Have IO-Kashmiris taken use of the current situation in Ladakh to stand up against IA and BSF ?
How many attacks have IO-Kashmiris conducted against occupying Indian forces and then have invited Pakistan and China to start pouring their armies from IO-kashmir borders?
What if India threatens to fire nuclear missile on Pakistan if it sees that IOK is getting away from its grip and Pakistan has captured massive chunks of areas in IOK ? Sure Pakistan can fire back a nuke also, but most areas of Pakistan will be decimated too. As soon as nuclear war will threaten the existence of both countries, pressure from the rest of the world will come to stop the war immediately.
and lastly, Pakistan has lost East Pakistan, is Kashmir more important than a lost part ? You gave up on East Pakistan (Bangladesh) but not Kashmir, why ?
Thank you for reading my article I am honored.
May be I have not made my points clear. I apologize.
Point is which of these obstacles you have so lucidly mentioned stops us from launching a
hybrid war on the entire indian state not just kashmir? If we have launched it, have we matched their scale?
Please look at the big picture.
Why are people focused on Kashmir only and that too about a military solution?
Why do we have this one dimensional 'soch' about 'fauji action'?
Have we not noticed; india's nuclear and even conventional deterrence has failed. Why cant we operate both militarily and politically in the space that has been created?
Do what india has done to Pakistan. Simple!
For starters a simple point. Why can't I see vibrant diplomatic organizations of Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya or may be Khalistan in Islamabad. If India can maintain Tibetan separatists in himachal pradesh why cant we do the same?
Has Pakistan worked on Bangladesh opposition groups who can cause problems for India? Has Pakistan made an effort to sell high-tech weaponry to Nepal for instance?
Is Pakistani intelligence community working to dehumanize hindu diaspora in muslim countries and thus limiting hindu and influence remittances? Are we pursuing this?
On the diplomatic front, Pakistan can hypothetically create a Stans organization of Stan countries with China, Russia as observers. All Stan countries can partner with CPEC. Its just an idea. Turkey and Iran will also join in once it becomes big. Are we pursuing such an effort?
Pakistan can wrest control of Chabhar from india by literally making an iranian and Chinese agreement. Pakistan did this with US and China.
On a military level - Pakistan could raise a gilgit corp whose target would be solely ladakh. I would much rather have theater commands with corps as their own commands or even bunch of corps forming a theater command. Internally, I would also like the concept of internal troops to be explored.
These are just ideas, Tactical plans can only be made by Pakistan's military, intelligence community and diplomatic corp. We can discuss over all strategic picture.
I was just incensed at the sheer defensive mind set. Like I said in the article - your arguments are solid. Pakistan has severe limitations but so does india.
I think I have not made my points clear ; Insh Allah next time if I write something, I will try my best to be better.
Once again,
You make some very valid points. We aren't really in a position to take advantage of this opportunity to it's fullest extent. Why? Partly because we've lacked aggression for far too long. Post 911 Musharraf rolled over and let America tickle his belly. He wound up all support for resistance operations in Kashmir, gave them full access to Afghanistan, let them bomb our territory and Kiyani and Co did the same. In exchange we got the Indians funding terrorism across our country and even more drone strikes for good measure.
There will be excuses for that too. The US was after blood, we weren't in a position to do this or that or the other. All very very true. Why? Because we don't plan beyond the end of our nose. The last time a Pakistani government played on the front foot was Zia Ul Haq.
The economy, the military, the internal political situation, the foreign policy - it all goes hand in hand.
At least right now I am seeing borders being fenced, relationships being mended, a Pakistan centric agenda being put forwards. If we can couple this with economic growth and political stability internally (even if it's artificial), then maybe we can be on the front foot in the near future.
We have limited options but it doesnt mean we have no options. This defensive mindset is not good.
Zia lost Siachen and had a referendum few months later. Internal stability was somewhat there because the country of about 80 million was still manageable. Now Jinnahs Pakistan is the 5th largest nation of earth by pop.
There are challenges. You have reply to india. Daily your jawans are losing their lives. Nothing stops you from launching a hybrid war on hindus.
