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Labour-intensive exports to make BD 'next China'

I don't think Standard chartered was talking Indian economy becoming $30 trillion in PPP terms but rather in Nominal terms. But I could be wrong.

Read the bold part carefully from economic times.

MUMBAI: India is expected to grow faster than China over the next couple of years and will be a $30-trillion economy by 2030, according to a report by Standard Chartered Bank . India is going to be the third-largest economy in the world after the US and China.

The super-cycle report prepared by Standard Chartered’s global research team, which is based on several assumptions, says while China is likely to grow at a 6.9% rate over the next two decades, India is likely to grow at a pace of an average 9.3% over the same period and trail the US as the third-largest economy by 2030. China may also overtake the US to become the world’s economic superpower within a decade.

It sees the world economy reaching $308 trillion by 2030. Within this, China will be a $73-trillion economy and India will be a $30-trillion economy, based on its growth and inflation forecast. At present, India is slightly over a trillion-dollar economy. It has assumed that the Chinese yuan will have appreciated from 6.64 this year to 4.39, and the rupee from 45.5 this year to 35 in 2030.

The report has forecast that living standards, as measured by real per capita income, will have increased nine-fold in China and India between 2000 and 2030. Rising personal incomes will push billions of people into the middle class and drive consumption, which will spur domestic economic growth.

Stanchart defines a super-cycle as “a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanisation and technological innovation and characterised by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catchup growth rates across the emerging world.”

There have been two such super-cycles before. The first ran from 1870 until 1913, on the eve of the First World War. The second began with the end of the Second World War and lasted until the oil crisis in 1973. The current super-cycle, according to the report, started at the turn of the 21st century and is likely to extend at least until 2030.

Worlds-10-largest-economies1.jpg


As you can see from the image, its the nominal GDP not PPP.

India's current nomonal gdp is 1.367 trillion... continue to multiply it 20 times with 1.093 as you indicated india will have a average gdp growth of 9.3%...

The result will be 8.09 trillion.... pardon me if I make any mistake... but no way 30 trillion in terms of nominal and even in terms of ppp with 9.3% annual growth it will be 23 trillion not 30 trillion....

I think you got your answer... they also show economy much higher for both china, indonesia, france and other countries.....such as for china... even if it continues to grow 10% a year it will have a gdp 67 trillion dollar in 2030.... in terms of ppp not nominal.... but this sort of growth is unlikely....

n regarding bangladesh and india I will give you a easy example ... right now bangladesh has a gdp 241 billion and india 3.67 trillion in terms of ppp ... so right now it is 16 times bigger economy with population around 8 times... but if bangladesh can maintain 10% average gdp growth and india 9.3 percent then by that time india will be 13 times bigger economy where bangladesh will have 1.75 trillion dollar economy vs india's 23 trillion in terms of PPP ... which is currently 16 times bigger... so you can see bangladesh will continue to develop relatively more than India... after 2030 india is likely to slow down.. but for bangladesh if every thing goes well it may accelerate rather than slowing down... so you can see from 2030 to 2040 and from 2040 to 2050 the difference will continue to reduced and if bangladesh can go ahead with all the reform and development ... it will not be impossible for bd to achieve a higher per capita gdp than india by 2050...
 
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India's current nomonal gdp is 1.367 trillion... continue to multiply it 20 times with 1.093 as you indicated india will have a average gdp growth of 9.3%...

The result will be 8.09 trillion.... pardon me if I make any mistake... but no way 30 trillion in terms of nominal and even in terms of ppp with 9.3% annual growth it will be 23 trillion not 30 trillion....

I think you got your answer... they also show economy much higher for both china, indonesia, france and other countries.....such as for china... even if it continues to grow 10% a year it will have a gdp 67 trillion dollar in 2030.... in terms of ppp not nominal.... but this sort of growth is unlikely....

n regarding bangladesh and india I will give you a easy example ... right now bangladesh has a gdp 241 billion and india 3.67 trillion in terms of ppp ... so right now it is 16 times bigger economy with population around 8 times... but if bangladesh can maintain 10% average gdp growth and india 9.3 percent then by that time india will be 13 times bigger economy where bangladesh will have 1.75 trillion dollar economy vs india's 23 trillion in terms of PPP ... which is currently 16 times bigger... so you can see bangladesh will continue to develop relatively more than India... after 2030 india is likely to slow down.. but for bangladesh if every thing goes well it may accelerate rather than slowing down... so you can see from 2030 to 2040 and from 2040 to 2050 the difference will continue to reduced and if bangladesh can go ahead with all the reform and development ... it will not be impossible for bd to achieve a higher per capita gdp than india by 2050...

Even from his data, see the position of Indoneshia. Who ever thought of Indoneshia will take its palce in top 10 countries which is very unlikely. I will bet more on Vietnam than Java.
 
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India's current nomonal gdp is 1.367 trillion... continue to multiply it 20 times with 1.093 as you indicated india will have a average gdp growth of 9.3%...

The result will be 8.09 trillion.... pardon me if I make any mistake... but no way 30 trillion in terms of nominal and even in terms of ppp with 9.3% annual growth it will be 23 trillion not 30 trillion....

I think you got your answer... they also show economy much higher for both china, indonesia, france and other countries.....such as for china... even if it continues to grow 10% a year it will have a gdp 67 trillion dollar in 2030.... in terms of ppp not nominal.... but this sort of growth is unlikely....

n regarding bangladesh and india I will give you a easy example ... right now bangladesh has a gdp 241 billion and india 3.67 trillion in terms of ppp ... so right now it is 16 times bigger economy with population around 8 times... but if bangladesh can maintain 10% average gdp growth and india 9.3 percent then by that time india will be 13 times bigger economy where bangladesh will have 1.75 trillion dollar economy vs india's 23 trillion in terms of PPP ... which is currently 16 times bigger... so you can see bangladesh will continue to develop relatively more than India... after 2030 india is likely to slow down.. but for bangladesh if every thing goes well it may accelerate rather than slowing down... so you can see from 2030 to 2040 and from 2040 to 2050 the difference will continue to reduced and if bangladesh can go ahead with all the reform and development ... it will not be impossible for bd to achieve a higher per capita gdp than india by 2050...

You fail to take inflation and rupee appreciation into account. But its not my prediction its standard chartered's. Its yours against them. I'll take theirs any time of the day.

But anyways, all we have to do is wait another 20 years to see where we would be. But first let Bangladesh reach at least 8% growth before we talk.


GDP is in Trillions and US dollar GDP is in Billions
Year GDP Growth Inflation...USD-Rupee USD GDP
2009 57.0 7 4 46 1240
2010 63.3 9 4 46 1376
2011 71.5 9 4 46 1555
2012 80.8 9 4 46 1757
2013 91.4 9 4 46 1986
2014 100.2 9 4 46 2244
2015 116.7 9 4 46 2536
2016 131.8 9 4 46 2866
2017 149.0 9 4 46 3238
2018 168.3 9 4 45 3740
2019 190.2 9 4 44 4323
2020 214.9 9 4 43 4998
2021 242.9 9 4 42 5782
2022 274.4 9 4 41 6693
2023 310.1 9 4 40 7753
2024 350.4 9 4 39 8985
2025 396.0 9 4 38 10420
2026 447.5 9 4 37 12093
2027 505.6 9 4 36 14045
2028 571.4 9 4 35 16324
2029 645.6 9 4 34 18989
2030 729.6 9 4 33 22108

Now calculate at 9.3 percent, you would get your $30 trillion. This is in nominal terms not PPP. You can always recheck the math.
 
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Even from his data, see the position of Indoneshia. Who ever thought of Indoneshia will take its palce in top 10 countries which is very unlikely. I will bet more on Vietnam than Java.

Indonesia has a more population than vietnam... n indonesia is likely to attain 8% gdp growth from next year.. so they have a chance to get a big economy...but 9 trillion dollar even in terms of PPP is too high... if Indonesia can maintain 10% gdp growth by 2030 it will have a economy 6.9-7 trillion.. still not 9 trillion... but that will be a big achievement for them...
 
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You fail to take inflation and rupee appreciation into account. But its not my prediction its standard chartered's. Its yours against them. I'll take theirs any time of the day.

But anyways, all we have to do is wait another 20 years to see where we would be. But first let Bangladesh reach at least 8% growth before we talk.


GDP is in Trillions and US dollar GDP is in Billions
Year GDP Growth Inflation...USD-Rupee USD GDP
2009 57.0 7 4 46 1240
2010 63.3 9 4 46 1376
2011 71.5 9 4 46 1555
2012 80.8 9 4 46 1757
2013 91.4 9 4 46 1986
2014 100.2 9 4 46 2244
2015 116.7 9 4 46 2536
2016 131.8 9 4 46 2866
2017 149.0 9 4 46 3238
2018 168.3 9 4 45 3740
2019 190.2 9 4 44 4323
2020 214.9 9 4 43 4998
2021 242.9 9 4 42 5782
2022 274.4 9 4 41 6693
2023 310.1 9 4 40 7753
2024 350.4 9 4 39 8985
2025 396.0 9 4 38 10420
2026 447.5 9 4 37 12093
2027 505.6 9 4 36 14045
2028 571.4 9 4 35 16324
2029 645.6 9 4 34 18989
2030 729.6 9 4 33 22108

Now calculate at 9.3 percent, you would get your $30 trillion. This is in nominal terms not PPP. You can always recheck the math.

we are measuring in terms of PPP not nominal... nominal takes into account the inflation... but at present rate in terms of PPP india will have a gdp of 23 trillion thats what I said... if you take in to account inflation... then economy of bangladesh may also get higher....

N standard charted predicted the value based on PPP... not nominal... if the data are really from them...
 
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Even from his data, see the position of Indoneshia. Who ever thought of Indoneshia will take its palce in top 10 countries which is very unlikely. I will bet more on Vietnam than Java.

Are you kiddin me? Indonesia GDP is 6-7 times higher than that of Vietnam. Its per capita income is twice that of Vietnam. Don't make fool of yourself.
 
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we are measuring in terms of PPP not nominal... nominal takes into account the inflation... but at present rate in terms of PPP india will have a gdp of 23 trillion thats what I said... if you take in to account inflation... then economy of bangladesh may also get higher....

N standard charted predicted the value based on PPP... not nominal... if the data are really from them...

Yes, but how high. May be to 2 trillion but not more. But like I said let Bangladesh clock at least 8% before we predict 12%.

Standard Chartered projection is nominal with inflation added and rupee appreciated to 35 which is clearly shown in the article I posted above.

Here is that excerpt

It sees the world economy reaching $308 trillion by 2030. Within this, China will be a $73-trillion economy and India will be a $30-trillion economy, based on its growth and inflation forecast. At present, India is slightly over a trillion-dollar economy. It has assumed that the Chinese yuan will have appreciated from 6.64 this year to 4.39, and the rupee from 45.5 this year to 35 in 2030.

The math part of how they got there is also posted. Please read before you post something.
 
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Yes, but how high. May be to 2 trillion but not more. But like I said let Bangladesh clock at least 8% before we predict 12%.

Standard Chartered projection is nominal with inflation added and rupee appreciated to 35 which is clearly shown in the article I posted above.

Here is that excerpt

It sees the world economy reaching $308 trillion by 2030. Within this, China will be a $73-trillion economy and India will be a $30-trillion economy, based on its growth and inflation forecast. At present, India is slightly over a trillion-dollar economy. It has assumed that the Chinese yuan will have appreciated from 6.64 this year to 4.39, and the rupee from 45.5 this year to 35 in 2030.

The math part of how they got there is also posted. Please read before you post something.

Are you naive.... where is your source... no way india will have a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2030 in terms of nominal...

This is 1 prediction made by goldman sachs in 2004 ... it predicted 4.5 trillion... but india did relatively well ... so even with 9.3% gdp growth it will be 8 trillion not more than that..

This table shows the top 10 countries by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) expressed in billions of US$, for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, listed by projected 2050 rank.
SOURCE: Goldman Sachs

2050 Rank Country Name 2000 GDP 2010 GDP 2020 GDP 2030 GDP 2040 GDP 2050 GDP
1 CHN China 1078 2998 7070 14312 26439 44453
* EU European Union * 9395 12965 16861 21075 28323 35288
2 USA United States 9825 13271 16415 20833 27229 35165
3 IND India 469 929 2104 4935 12367 27803
4 JPN Japan 4176 4601 5221 5810 6039 6673
5 BRA Brazil 762 668 1333 2189 3740 6074
6 RUS Russia 391 847 1741 2980 4467 5870
7 UK United Kingdom 1437 1876 2285 2649 3201 3782
8 GER Germany 1875 2212 2524 2697 3147 3603
9 FRA France 1311 1622 1930 2267 2668 3148
10 ITA Italy 1078 1337 1553 1671 1788 2061
* European Union GDP, which I calculated myself, is shown for comparison, but not ranked.

GDP Gross Domestic Product Projections 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, geographic.org Courty Profiles - Economy, Geography, Climate, Natural Resources, Current Issues, International Agreements, Population, Social Statistics, Political System, Flags, Ma

Just wait and see ... if polical situation remain well... bangladesh will achieve 8% gdp growth in 2 to 3 years.... n thanks for your concern... and come in to reality.... you have no idea what is the potential of indonesia, pakistan, bangladesh and nigeria... these 4 are the sleeping giants... in the world..
 
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No it's based on nominal NOT PPP



$1.2 Trillion is India's nominal GDP, in PPP terms its ~$4Trillion

so just tell me how with 9.3% gdp growth india will be 30 trillion dollar economy from 1.2 trillion dollar economy....

do you know any basic maths??? even if you take in to account inflation... it will not be possible...

Even if you take in to account inflation and assume india will have 15% gdp growth still it will have 27.5 trillion dollar economy not 30 trillion...
 
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No it's based on nominal NOT PPP



$1.2 Trillion is India's nominal GDP, in PPP terms its ~$4Trillion


Based on your data...future prediction for india..

3. India India flag

Current GDP (IMF-list): $4,001

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $6,384

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 9.8%

Estimated GDP 2030 $25,942

N that is 25.9 trillion based on with 9.8 percernt gdp growth not 9.3 % based on PPP as india has 4 trillion 3.68 trillion dollar economy based on PPP....

Source:The 10 Largest Economies in 2030 - I Look Forward To
 
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Are you naive.... where is your source... no way india will have a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2030 in terms of nominal...

This is 1 prediction made by goldman sachs in 2004 ... it predicted 4.5 trillion... but india did relatively well ... so even with 9.3% gdp growth it will be 8 trillion not more than that..

This table shows the top 10 countries by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) expressed in billions of US$, for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, listed by projected 2050 rank.
SOURCE: Goldman Sachs

2050 Rank Country Name 2000 GDP 2010 GDP 2020 GDP 2030 GDP 2040 GDP 2050 GDP
1 CHN China 1078 2998 7070 14312 26439 44453
* EU European Union * 9395 12965 16861 21075 28323 35288
2 USA United States 9825 13271 16415 20833 27229 35165
3 IND India 469 929 2104 4935 12367 27803
4 JPN Japan 4176 4601 5221 5810 6039 6673
5 BRA Brazil 762 668 1333 2189 3740 6074
6 RUS Russia 391 847 1741 2980 4467 5870
7 UK United Kingdom 1437 1876 2285 2649 3201 3782
8 GER Germany 1875 2212 2524 2697 3147 3603
9 FRA France 1311 1622 1930 2267 2668 3148
10 ITA Italy 1078 1337 1553 1671 1788 2061
* European Union GDP, which I calculated myself, is shown for comparison, but not ranked.

GDP Gross Domestic Product Projections 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, geographic.org Courty Profiles - Economy, Geography, Climate, Natural Resources, Current Issues, International Agreements, Population, Social Statistics, Political System, Flags, Ma

Just wait and see ... if polical situation remain well... bangladesh will achieve 8% gdp growth in 2 to 3 years.... n thanks for your concern... and come in to reality.... you have no idea what is the potential of indonesia, pakistan, bangladesh and nigeria... these 4 are the sleeping giants... in the world..

Buddy, you have no clue about economics. Goldman Sachs estimated India would develop at an average 6.5 percent added inflation and appreciation to get to that figure.

Standard chartered is predicting India to develop at 9.3% average with the same inflation and appreciation.

I also showed you the math. Are you so stupid to even verify the math?
 
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Buddy, you have no clue about economics. Goldman Sachs estimated India would develop at an average 6.5 percent added inflation and appreciation to get to that figure.

Standard chartered is predicting India to develop at 9.3% average with the same inflation and appreciation prediction.

I showed you the math. Are you so stupid to even verify the math?

No need to lecture me on maths...I know that india is doing better.. thats the reason it will have a economy 8.5 trillion appx. not 4.5 trillion as predicted by Goldman sachs... in 2030 in terms of nominal if you compare a 9.3% gdp growth... but no way 30 trillion in terms of nominal.. if you take inflation in to account than only it may be 30 trillion in 2030... but not in terms of nominal...
 
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No need to lecture me on maths...I know that india is doing better.. thats the reason it will have a economy 8.5 trillion appx. not 4.5 trillion as predicted by Goldman sachs... in 2030 in terms of nominal if you compare a 9.3% gdp growth... but no way 30 trillion in terms of nominal.. if you take inflation in to account than only it may be 30 trillion in 2030... but not in terms of nominal...

What do you think nominal is? Country's overall GDP would be $30 trillion. India would be close to US in purchasing power parity by then. In other words, India's nominal GDP and PPP GDP would be almost equal.

Even then, I did not come up with the projection. It was standard chartered, you should take it up with them. I want to you study their research paper, they used the term 'super cycle' to explain the phenomenon. You can find it online.
 
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