Labour-intensive exports to make BD 'next China'

[Maira La]

Based on your data...future prediction for india..

3. India India flag

Current GDP (IMF-list): $4,001

GDP 2015 (IMF-estimate): $6,384

Projected GDP growth rate (real): 9.8%

Estimated GDP 2030 $25,942

N that is 25.9 trillion based on with 9.8 percernt gdp growth not 9.3 % based on PPP as india has 4 trillion 3.68 trillion dollar economy based on PPP....

Source:The 10 Largest Economies in 2030 - I Look Forward To

Hah hah hah hah .. you totally destroyed his argument bro! Good job!

It is actually pointless to keep arguing from here onwards because our intelligent friends won't give up as it will hurt their ego.

When our country makes any sort of progress, you can feel the heat of jealousy coming from some indian members. However, I want to believe most ordinary indians would love to see BD prosper!


Edit: This thread went off-topic since some indian member started comparing india vs BD and then proceeded to paint a bad future for BD. Iajdani was just saying BD has the potential to achieve a faster developing economy -> developed economy transition than India - not that India will slow down.

 

[below_freezing]

anyhow, I think bangladesh would do best to make its petrochemicals sector competitive first. otherwise, skipping straight to textiles would put BD in the trap of the south american banana republics - dependent on outside manufactured goods before it can even make an export.

 

[applesauce]

Are you naive.... where is your source... no way india will have a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2030 in terms of nominal...

This is 1 prediction made by goldman sachs in 2004 ... it predicted 4.5 trillion... but india did relatively well ... so even with 9.3% gdp growth it will be 8 trillion not more than that..

This table shows the top 10 countries by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) expressed in billions of US$, for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, listed by projected 2050 rank.
SOURCE: Goldman Sachs

2050 Rank Country Name 2000 GDP 2010 GDP 2020 GDP 2030 GDP 2040 GDP 2050 GDP
1 CHN China 1078 2998 7070 14312 26439 44453
* EU European Union * 9395 12965 16861 21075 28323 35288
2 USA United States 9825 13271 16415 20833 27229 35165
3 IND India 469 929 2104 4935 12367 27803
4 JPN Japan 4176 4601 5221 5810 6039 6673
5 BRA Brazil 762 668 1333 2189 3740 6074
6 RUS Russia 391 847 1741 2980 4467 5870
7 UK United Kingdom 1437 1876 2285 2649 3201 3782
8 GER Germany 1875 2212 2524 2697 3147 3603
9 FRA France 1311 1622 1930 2267 2668 3148
10 ITA Italy 1078 1337 1553 1671 1788 2061
* European Union GDP, which I calculated myself, is shown for comparison, but not ranked.

GDP Gross Domestic Product Projections 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, geographic.org Courty Profiles - Economy, Geography, Climate, Natural Resources, Current Issues, International Agreements, Population, Social Statistics, Political System, Flags, Ma

Just wait and see ... if polical situation remain well... bangladesh will achieve 8% gdp growth in 2 to 3 years.... n thanks for your concern... and come in to reality.... you have no idea what is the potential of indonesia, pakistan, bangladesh and nigeria... these 4 are the sleeping giants... in the world..

that report(from 2005) is way off the mark already
it is now 2010

for 2010.....
____report___________real life
China__~ 3 tril_________5.7 tril
USA___~ 13.2 tril_______14.5 tril
India___~ 0.93 tril_______1.37 tril

as you can see the report is quite a bit off and in the case of china it was off by nearly 50%(2.7 trillion)

 

[great]

Hah hah hah hah .. you totally destroyed his argument bro! Good job!

It is actually pointless to keep arguing from here onwards because our intelligent friends won't give up as it will hurt their ego.

When our country makes any sort of progress, you can feel the heat of jealousy coming from some indian members. However, I want to believe most ordinary indians would love to see BD prosper!


Edit: This thread went off-topic since some indian member started comparing india vs BD and then proceeded to paint a bad future for BD. Iajdani was just saying BD has the potential to achieve a faster developing economy -> developed economy transition than India - not that India will slow down.

Hooo..slow down. No body painted bad picture for Bangladesh. All I was saying is his prediction of BD's per capita going to be larger than India's, isn't true. There are several research papers came out on the same. He just came out with that statement without pointing the sources. I actually gave him the reports.

I don't think you actually read the entire discussion. There is a research paper posted there somewhere, you'll be better served if you read it.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

that report(from 2005) is way off the mark already
it is now 2010

for 2010.....
____report___________real life
China__~ 3 tril_________5.7 tril
USA___~ 13.2 tril_______14.5 tril
India___~ 0.93 tril_______1.37 tril

as you can see the report is quite a bit off and in the case of china it was off by nearly 50%(2.7 trillion)

Did you see my previous posts... which clearly indicated that the real figure would be higher... for india I said it will be around 9 trillion where as it is saying 4.5 trillion... same also goes for china... this is a data based on 2007.... the main reason for showing this data is that there is no way india will have a gdp of 30 trillion nominally...I hope you got the point...

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Hooo..slow down. No body painted bad picture for Bangladesh. All I was saying is his prediction of BD's per capita going to be larger than India's, isn't true. There are several research papers came out on the same. He just came out with that statement without pointing the sources. I actually gave him the reports.

I don't think you actually read the entire discussion. There is a research paper posted there somewhere, you'll be better served if you read it.

No report said that BD is going to have a higher per capita gdp than india right now... we were saying bd has the potential to attain that in between 2030-2050.. or some where around that...N iajdani the point he made was that bd will take less time for transition from developing to developed country... for india it will take longer as it is bigger country... so for overall development it will take much time than bangladesh... you are blabbing India will have 30 trillion economy ... worlds 3rd biggest economy ... even after all these india will become industrialized country not before 2039....

India can become industrialised nation by 2039: Basu

That is a link see it by yourself.

This report is based on finance ministry of your country... n predicted by that time or may be 4 to 5 year earlier than that India will achieve 10000 USD per capita income... this implies that India in no way will have 30 trillion dollar economy... If that is the case .. than by 2030 India should have a per capita GDP of aroud 20000 USD with 1.45 billion population....

 

[great]

No report said that BD is going to have a higher per capita gdp than india right now... we were saying bd has the potential to attain that in between 2030-2050.. or some where around that...N iajdani the point he made was that bd will take less time for transition from developing to developed country... for india it will take longer as it is bigger country... so for overall development it will take much time than bangladesh... you are blabbing India will have 30 trillion economy ... worlds 3rd biggest economy ... even after all these india will become industrialized country not before 2039....

India can become industrialised nation by 2039: Basu

That is a link see it by yourself.

This report is based on finance ministry of your country... n predicted by that time or may be 4 to 5 year earlier than that India will achieve 10000 USD per capita income... this implies that India in no way will have 30 trillion dollar economy... If that is the case .. than by 2030 India should have a per capita GDP of aroud 20000 USD with 1.45 billion population....

Okay you still don't get it. How are you going to become a developed country before say 2039? Point me to a research that said BD is going to be a developed economy before said year.

Or Do I have to take your word for it? Bold part in your post is just plain BS. Korea took 40-50 years of explosive growth ( starting from early 60's) to get to where it is now. China is just into 30 years of its growth. In next 20 years, it is expected to be at $70 trillion. Now tell me which grew faster.

Also if two countries grow at the same rate, why would one country be developed and other not. Unless you are saying India is going to grow substantially slower than that of Bangladesh. If that is your claim, I would like to see a research paper that said that. I won't take your word. Like I said, let Bangladesh have 8% growth first, before we talk about overtaking India's growth.

Regarding India becoming $30 trillion economy in nominal terms by 2030 that is not something that I came up with. One of the leading UK bank 'Standard Chartered' came out with that research paper.

I am posting link to it here again, go through it and see if they are talking about Nominal GDP or PPP GDP. And then refute my point.

http://www.standardchartered.com/me...documents/20101115/The_Super-cycle_Report.pdf

 

[WAR-rior]

discussing economy......hee hee hee !

i can smell some one called me !

 

[WAR-rior]

Hah hah hah hah .. you totally destroyed his argument bro! Good job!

It is actually pointless to keep arguing from here onwards because our intelligent friends won't give up as it will hurt their ego.

When our country makes any sort of progress, you can feel the heat of jealousy coming from some indian members. However, I want to believe most ordinary indians would love to see BD prosper!


Edit: This thread went off-topic since some indian member started comparing india vs BD and then proceeded to paint a bad future for BD. Iajdani was just saying BD has the potential to achieve a faster developing economy -> developed economy transition than India - not that India will slow down.

chalo lets explain in laymen terms.......for india,

year nominal real(PPP)

2010 1.4+ 3.8 (not 4.01 as mentioned smwhr earlier)
now some days back i have started a thread of edelweiss report which analysed indian nominal GDP to rise by 13% and real to rise by 9+ %(PM MMS said they have planned a 10+% real gdp growth)....which means inflation will be 13-9 = 4% (approx)

lets calculate,

2020 1.4*(1.13)^10=4.75 3.8*(1.09)^10 = 9

now if u notice...the ratio of nominal to real(PPP) is only increasing....thanks to infation.....

and what i did was actually a basic calculations where i didnt consider exchange rate and all......value of 'E', 'e', P, P* .......etc etc

which are used for accurate results but dont divert too much from the above calculations.....

what i mean to say is nominal and real growth are very very subjective.....u simply cant compare them......

india wont be a internal consumption based economy after 2020 fuget bout in 2030......which means, international exchange rate will have lot to say in indian growth.....(assuming strong manufacturing base after 15 yrs)....... thus INDIAN NOMINAL WILL TEND TOWARDS REAL.....

and again i repeat, nominal growth is inclusive of inflation which is 9.x % + inflation ........hence more the inflation, more will be nominal growth but not that much real growth.......(as experts say...nominal is only for self appriciation......only real matters).....

but now dont misunderstand high inflation means high nominal.......it has to be along with high growth...... not like growth of 1% and inflation of 10 % will give u growth of 11% ...there are many reasons of inflation....and inflation with high growth gives u 'positive inflation'......

so above posts are realistic....given the normal conditions....infact we are thinking even big....

and plz dont get insecure with 30 tr figure of indian GDP...... ...... its not 'real'...its nominal......which is very much possible......

reason : indian surplus/deficit is always gonna be on -ve side.....which means there wud be an inflation of around 5%......

Thanks !

 

[TopCat]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Even if I take your calculation in account, it is way too long lets say another 50 years when you reach the threshold for the transition to promote yourself from a middle income economy to a developed economy. Now my thought was that you should not take that long and if you do so then you will loose your steam as you will start seeing increasing number of aging population. India has to do it within next 30 years and is not that easy as you have less resources and huge population. Lets take the example of China, it is going to start loosing its steam after 2020 for their one child policy, yet China will not be anyway near to call itself a developed economy by 2020. Still China might have the largest GDP in the world but their average standard of life not going to be as good as it is now in Japan/Korea or in Europe.
That was my point and my last explanation if that already broke your skull.

 

[TopCat]

I need add one more theory as a layman of economics for my beloved Indian friends.

China/India/Bangladesh/Vietnam all does have one thing in common and that is population driven growth. Due to 70's 80' and 90's population boom there are plenty of young blood in the economy, who without any incentives will drive economy. No matter what they will go out and find something to do, be it rickshaw pulling or selling grocheries in the neighbourhood. By economic theory this factor itself will give a growth rate of 5-6% anually which you see in Bangladesh.

Then as economy starts growing you bring in FDI which will give you extra coushion and take the economy to a faster pace which you see in India and China. Now again its the young blood and huge consumers which are driving your economy forward.

This is OK as long as nobody falls behind in your society. China did awesome job and maintained all the economic phases which ensured inclusive growth. India on the other hand a totally exclusive growth driven by middle and higher income group and significant amount of population falling behind.
Bangladesh on the other hand done fairly in this particular sector. Jobs created by growth mostly gone to the poor as well as expatriate earning is also going to the villages.

 

[Stumper]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Even if I take your calculation in account, it is way too long lets say another 50 years when you reach the threshold for the transition to promote yourself from a middle income economy to a developed economy. Now my thought was that you should not take that long and if you do so then you will loose your steam as you will start seeing increasing number of aging population. India has to do it within next 30 years and is not that easy as you have less resources and huge population. Lets take the example of China, it is going to start loosing its steam after 2020 for their one child policy, yet China will not be anyway near to call itself a developed economy by 2020. Still China might have the largest GDP in the world but their average standard of life not going to be as good as it is now in Japan/Korea or in Europe.
That was my point and my last explanation if that already broke your skull.

I agree and that was what i was trying to highlight in my earlier post ... Unless India wakes up and takes steps to improve our skills and Infra, we are looking at a future lock jam. And i see , similar issue with BD as well (Not sure why ... some BD member took offence to this comment of mine .. but this is a fact for BOTH of us).

 

[WAR-rior]

I need add one more theory as a layman of economics for my beloved Indian friends.

China/India/Bangladesh/Vietnam all does have one thing in common and that is population driven growth. Due to 70's 80' and 90's population boom there are plenty of young blood in the economy, who without any incentives will drive economy. No matter what they will go out and find something to do, be it rickshaw pulling or selling grocheries in the neighbourhood. By economic theory this factor itself will give a growth rate of 5-6% anually which you see in Bangladesh.

Then as economy starts growing you bring in FDI which will give you extra coushion and take the economy to a faster pace which you see in India and China. Now again its the young blood and huge consumers which are driving your economy forward.

This is OK as long as nobody falls behind in your society. China did awesome job and maintained all the economic phases which ensured inclusive growth. India on the other hand a totally exclusive growth driven by middle and higher income group and significant amount of population falling behind.
Bangladesh on the other hand done fairly in this particular sector. Jobs created by growth mostly gone to the poor as well as expatriate earning is also going to the villages.

dude, nothing takien away from china....but india and china have completely different form of polity and governance.

if u think its only chinese style that brings fast inclusive growth then i might not agree......

indians are taking steps to move in that direction...

the reason india has no inclusive growth is coz of corruption and middle men problem..... (only 15/100 rupees come to the last person)

and have u ever heard about UID(unique identification number) ..... whose project is given to infosys boss !

do try to find out whats that and why is it needed ?

the day its in place......u will see the fastest inclusive growth around.....frankly even faster than china.....

 

[WAR-rior]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Even if I take your calculation in account, it is way too long lets say another 50 years when you reach the threshold for the transition to promote yourself from a middle income economy to a developed economy. Now my thought was that you should not take that long and if you do so then you will loose your steam as you will start seeing increasing number of aging population. India has to do it within next 30 years and is not that easy as you have less resources and huge population. Lets take the example of China, it is going to start loosing its steam after 2020 for their one child policy, yet China will not be anyway near to call itself a developed economy by 2020. Still China might have the largest GDP in the world but their average standard of life not going to be as good as it is now in Japan/Korea or in Europe.
That was my point and my last explanation if that already broke your skull.

relax brother u dont need to sit on the stove.....

my reply was only for the fact that indian nominal GDP can be 30 tr given in obvious situations.........

now talking bout aging then indians dont have 1 or 2 child policy.....

we are free to scrwe and reproduce with or without using protection.....

indan population till 2050 will be still a 35-40 aged one.....

and with rise in quality of life and prosperity.......its equivalent to 25-30 age of a 3rd world country.....eg: see the developed west.....

i mean aging population means 60+ and ur assumed problems will only suffice when our growth is halted and population is growing.....

do mind that with growth will come the capability to feed the old....

so i really dont see any fall in relative growth even after 2050 ..... untill the glass is completely full its only gonna keep filling....

and india with such huge population growth per annum will take decades and decades to become an old aged population.....

 

[Stealth_fighter]

after next 2 years India will be the economic,sport,military super power of the world.........i think my indian friends are happy now...