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You will see the picture much clearer in the days to come, those advocating militias are already on the defensive, the commander of the militias was flown out of the city by the ANSF, (he ran away) his militia was also crashed by the Talis, now the ANSF is on the offensive, they have retaken, major government office and killing over 82 talis in the process.
If you follow the Afghan social media scene, the public is fully behind the ANSF while ridiculing the militias.
Ashraf Ghani scored a major coup by disrupting the militias which were no different than the talis, ANSF is retaking the city by showing to the public that they are the main defenders of the country, while the international press is covering the assault as a major news [which brings Afghanistan back in the news and provide credence to those that advocate long term assistance to Afghanistan from the International Community especially the US]
I am afraid your American tax dollars will be following for the foreseeable future, though Ashraf Ghani will be an accountable recipient
Well as you said, the next few days should bring clarity.
The missing piece -- the billion dollar piece is
controllability. Such complex forays look good on paper but
war is not a controllable business. Even for rich nations with enormous resources like the US, wars seem to have a mind of their own.
Afghanistan/Iraq are deemed at best partial failures by the scholarship -- both wars were entered into with the best of intentions, with civilian policy makers that are arguably the best in the world, with a military orders of magnitude better than the next 10 countries combined -- however the results have been terrible. The limited success that is cited in Afghanistan are simply not worth the
several hundred billion dollars that were invested on a nation of 30 million.
So again in summary -- it may be possible that the actors involved have gotten into the fray with these brilliant complex plans --
but what authors of such undertaking miss is that war is not a manageable enterprise.
In addition one should also not forget the following:
1. It is unlikely given the Syrian and the Iraqi crises that Afghanistan will get attention in the near future. Afghanistan in the Western mind (is correctly) is a far away land locked country from which another 9/11 cannot emerge. And even if another 9/11 is possible, it is far more possible from Syria and Iraq
2. Syria/Iraq are very close to home
3. The ANSF, despite the best of intentions is an army comprised largely of an illiterate and drug addicted fighting force -- it is not the ANSF or anybody's fault -- better cannot be expected from a war devastated society
4. The ANSF attrition rate is still worse than the replenishment rate and there is no credible route to reverse that
5. But perhaps the most alarming issue regarding the ANSF is that the pool of eligible recruits has already been exhausted -- that means that recruiting will become harder and the quality of future recruits will continue to decline
6. None of the economic measures proposed can come online at the required level before a 10 year period
7. Relations with Pakistan remain fraught and will probably continue to remain fraught -- as I've said this is a structure issue -- despite best intentions this cannot be wished away
So although I understand your enthusiasm -- however it is difficult not to be skeptical
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