Kashmir to get activity as the U.S. leaves Afghanistan

[muse]

Friends,

It has been suggested that with the evacuation of US forces form Afghanistan, that there may be a uptake in militant activities in India.

One of the ways to deal with this possibility is the suggestion that countries such as US, China, and other major trading partners of India, apply pressure to secure guarantees from Pakistan, that it will not serve as a launching pad for such activities.

Is this a workable idea? what are merit and/or demerits of this approach? Will such an approach lead to better relations between Pakistan and India?
Please discuss here:

 

[muse]

Ok, may be a little bit of a push: Lets start with the assumptions, do these legs, that is to say, are they rooted in reality?

 

[Luftwaffe]

What sort of Pressure would that be, Isn't that what US-NATO and Afghanistan asking Pakistan and Pakistan countering with the same argument and asking the same from Them.

As for workable idea hindustan would have to reduce A large number of Forces in Occupied Kashmir. I don't have enough information on musharrf's/hindustan dialogue and or Accord and Plans but the little I know I would pretty much want it in place to defuse much of the tensions and give a space to Kashmiris to progress.

 

[Awesome]

I don't think there is a mood in Pakistan to support militancy. We will continue to push militants out of Pakistan, remove their camps, kill their leaders.

It is up to India to simply deny them safe haven when we kick them out.

 

[muse]

What sort of Pressure would that be, Isn't that what US-NATO and Afghanistan asking Pakistan and Pakistan countering with the same argument and asking the same from Them.
.

That's not really correct -- We are not saying to India or her friends and well wishers, " hey you've got to stop sending terrorists in to Pakistan"


Problem I have is that in order for India to be able to pressure her trading partners to squeeze out such guarantees fro Pakistan, that India would be a significantly larger market for her partners, one whose replacement would be costly if not impossible - Is this going to be the case in the near future?

If Pakistan can make the case successfully of being paid in the same coin, to even 1 or 2 of those trading partners, the proposition ends up in a stalemate

 

[KRAIT]

India only has problems with China on border disputes which we are trying to solve.

As for US and EU, they need Economic growth very badly now.

Same is in case of Russia. Look at present Economic Conditions.
Unemployment rate is at 11 % in UK alone.

Japan, which is third largest economy in the world is also facing tough economic times. It also needs India's support in not only economic but also Strategic purposes as China is a big nation to handle alone.

KSA already trying to woo India and it is evident from Abu Jundal handover for CBM and increasing trust, wants to invest in Indian infrastructure sector as they want to diversify their economy in many fields instead being Only Oil based economy.

Read this

Retail global biggies make a beeline for India - The Times of India

Now, the companies are from Europe. FDI in India is pushed too hard by many countries. Obama is trying very hard for it. Reason is that the middle class of India loves these foreign products. Metro cities and state capitals are increasing. I live in Jaipur and I have seen how much it changed. Metro train will start in this year, constructed quite fast.

Now companies like Bombardier etc. are also focusing on selling locomotives to Indian Railway as our factories are full with orders and demand is quite high. They have manufacturing plant in Savli, India. Providing jobs to Indians.

After Delhi metro, Bombardier looks to supplying railways | Business Standard

Russia also needs cash so its giving Oil for Loans to China. It wants Nuclear plants, Military contract with India.

France - President Hollande who will be visiting for billions worth of deals.

When India gave orders for C-17 Globemaster and C-130 J to US, it saved thousands of jobs that comapnies were going to cut. Not just Boeing but also the companies that provide parts and systems to Boeing.

And all these companies are getting into JV with Indian companies, which is not only good for economy but most important, Knowledge Transfer.

Also, Hyundai in India is going to reduce number of Koreans and replace them with Indians in the company. So this trend will also follow as Indian engineers and professionals are paid less wrt foreign engineers.

This make Hyundai operations in India dependent on Indians to a larger extent.

South Korea - Samsung has emerged a major player in India. So is Hyundai. Recent military ties with ROK in discussion because of China.

Point - This is just to highlight that large market and Too much Competition among other countries to get larger share can help India to put Diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.

Nothing substantial but just enough to tone down Pakistan's objection against India. Like Pakistan demanded UN probe, US, China to come as third party in LOC incident.

Even India don't manage to indirectly pressurize Pakistan through other nations, it an certainly make them to take neutral stance leaving Pakistan no other choice than dealing with India on Kashmir bilaterally.


Relations with India may provide Strategic and Complimentary Economic Benefits.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakist...an-demands-latest-military-hardware-uk-6.html

 

[muse]

All right - lets refine this further:

1. The subsiding of militancy in the West of Pakistan (includes Afghanistan) is thought to lead to an increase in Militancy effecting India -

2. India seek to ensure that does not happen

OK, so how do the Indians go about doing this?

The suggestion is that India is major trading partner of many of the players in the region and it can and should pressure pressure these and these in turn pressure Pakistan

Problem with this approach is that India are not a US type of global market, the only people severely hurt by applying pressure on trading partners, are India themselves.

So how then can India achieve it's aim of preventing an increase in militant activity within her borders?:

 

[A1Kaid]

India only has problems with China on border disputes which we are trying to solve.

If you believe that than you are badly mistaken. I don't care how many countries are starting to do business with India, that will not change Pakistan's stance on Kashmir.

 

[KRAIT]

If you believe that than you are badly mistaken. I don't care how many countries are starting to do business with India, that will not change Pakistan's stance on Kashmir.

I don't care. Rest of the world will tell you to stop destabilizing India. You have seen in LOC incident, US, China, UN didn't come in between .

We are just focusing on your allies and neighbors. Rest Pakistan can either come to Peace talks or keep this hostility.

 

[A1Kaid]

I don't care. Rest of the world will tell you to stop destabilizing India. You have seen in LOC incident, US, China, UN didn't come in between .

We are just focusing on your allies and neighbors. Rest Pakistan can either come to Peace talks or keep this hostility.

Rest of the world acknowledges Kashmir as disputed territory, so they don't consider Kashmiri militancy as "destabilizing" India.

 

[KRAIT]

Rest of the world acknowledges Kashmir as disputed territory, so they don't consider Kashmiri militancy as "destabilizing" India.

Militancy not destabilizing ? Where did you learned that.

Rest of the world does acknowledge that its Disputed territory but it also says that it should be solved bilaterally.

As for supporting Jehadis in India, I don't think it will be good move by Pakistan. Its already cornered due to OBL presence, Afghan Taliban support, UN and US declared terrorist HS living freely in Pakistan etc. and now exporting terror to India will only strengthen India's case. India has been seen as victim of terrorism.

How can you expect UN and West to support your case if you don't even agree with them

Think about it. What you want ? Support to Kashmir now or getting internal situation and economy in order. Shouldn't you wait until nations get backs on to its own feet ?

 

[Sergi]

Pakistan should pray that such things won't happen for

1. It will future degrade Pak's image internationally .
2. It will eventually have adverse effects on the investments and plans for economic development.
3. Stressed relations with India will cause more millitary expenditure.
4. Lastly , you simply can't be sure that the guy your train will go to J&K and NOT to China

 

[Dushmann]

I don't think there is a mood in Pakistan to support militancy. We will continue to push militants out of Pakistan, remove their camps, kill their leaders.

It is up to India to simply deny them safe haven when we kick them out.

But the problem is Pakistan has it's own definition of 'terrorist' which is often different than rest of the world. Then Pakistan has multiple establishments and multiple parallel governments and each one of them have their own definitions of good terrorists and bad terrorists. So when we talk about Pakistan supporting or not supporting extremists, usually we are only talking about only a section of Pakistan.

 

[Rig Vedic]

I think very gradual incremental progress might be possible.

India may be able to influence other nations' policies towards Pakistan, to an extent, but that may not be enough, at least initially, to get Pakistan itself to change.

There will always be hard core elements in Pakistan who will not tolerate any change in policy on Kashmir. But over a period of time their legitimacy may get eroded.

Also, the people in J&K are gradually becoming more skeptical of Jihadism, and less susceptible to emotional provocation.