That means no solution until Pakistan decides that demanding Kashmir has little benefit, and that perhaps might never happen.
So bye-bye to peace then.
Sir, no side today can be the clear winner in Kashmir per things as they stand today and as can be seen on near horizon. So we will have to identify middle grounds and a road map.
India will not relinquish our part of Kashmir. It cannot be done in any way - least of all by using terrorists. Past Pakistan strategy in this regard has only alienated Indian Kashmiris even further as no one wants violence in the valley. If violence was the way to go and if they wanted to join Pakistan then Gibraltar would have settled it or the terrorism being supported since the 90s would have definitely put this matter to bed.
Pakistan is not looking for and Independent Kashmir but something on the lines of AJK. If they wish was to honour the independence of Pakistani side of Kashmir was real from Pakistan then they would not have carved our Gilgit - Baltistan out of what originally was Kashmir.
Kashmiris want independence but unfortunately their beautiful abode is sitting on a very important geo-political position and their outright Independence is neither tenable nor viable.
What can be the way forward:
1. India agrees to a road map of growth of an autonomous Kashmir by agreeing to steps. Start with first reducing the military and increasing the police (this is already happening). Develop other organs of a democracy (as is already happening). Allow trans LOC trade, people movement, and make the border porous, finally allow Kashmiris to run their own state, a something like Vatican within Rome. The time frames of various steps can be basis agreement of India and the Indian Kashmiris.
2. For India to be encouraged to do the above, Pakistan needs to do all the above in their part of Kashmir with an agreement betwen Pakistan and the Pakistani Kashiris + also stop terrorist training camps, shut down LeT, JuD or whatever is the current morphosis of the "take Kashmir by force and military attrition" strategy.
3. As Jammu is part of the erstwhile Kashmir State, so is Gilgit Baltistan and also the part of Kashmir that Pakistan "gifted" to China. So any discussion has to keep in mind this whole geographical entity and there can be no picks and leaves.
4. The original population of Indian Kashmir was the majority muslims + minority Hindus. These Hindus that were driven away from the valley by the terrorists in the 90s need to be allowed to return to their homes and villages and they need to be included in the decision making process if there is any hope of a real solution. Again no picks and leaves, it has to be an all encompassing solution.
5. The Kashmiri separtists need to take a holiday (which they will have to after the support from Pakistan ceases because going by the past election turnouts, that is the only support that they have) and the true Kashmiri issues of growth, employment, prosperity, peace needs to be brought to the fore. With the agreed path of various steps finally providing autonomy to Kashmir, that should not be difficult. There has to be a way in which all are winners and the definitions of win needs to be re-thought.
6. So finally peace can be achieved by a plan over the next several years, which will via step needs commitment from India for increased autonomy and not territorial indepence. Pakistan needs to water down the dream of a Kashmir Vassal state or a part of Pakistan. They need to agree like India to finally provide their part of Kashmir (including Gilgit Baltistan) with similar autonomy over agreed time frame and steps and not territorial independence. China needs to return the part of Kashmir that they were gifted by Pakistan. And finally and most importantly, the Kashmiri leaders need to focus more on the growth of their region and the prosperity of the citizens and in the process achieve autonomy of rule limited only by territorial freedom.
) tomorrow she will demand Gilgit-Baldistan (and so on). There is no way to satisfy indian hunger.
