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India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll: How Karnataka's castes, communities have voted across different regions?
The Congress, BJP and JD(S) have a strong backup from at least one dominant caste or community in Karnataka. So, how have different social groups shown their political allegiance this time? Using the exit poll data, we can discern both ongoing trends and changes from the norm
Ashish Ranjan
New Delhi,UPDATED: May 12, 2023 09:47 IST
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The India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests a huge victory for the Congress in Karnataka winning between 122 and 140 Assembly seats. The incumbent BJP is expected to lose badly and is projected to win between 62 and 80 Assembly seats. (Photo: India Today)
By Ashish Ranjan: Caste has always been a key variable in electoral politics in India. The 2023 Assembly elections in Karnataka are no different -- the three major parties in the state have a strong backup from at least one dominant caste or community.
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests a huge victory for the Congress in Karnataka. The party is projected to win 43 per cent of votes and win between 122 and 140 Assembly seats. On the other hand, the incumbent BJP is expected to lose badly and is projected to win between 62 and 80 Assembly seats.
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So, how have different social groups shown their political allegiance this time? Using the exit poll data, we can discern both ongoing trends and changes from the norm. The results of the polls will be declared on May 13.
CASTE DYNAMICS IN THE STATE
The Congress, the BJP, and the Janata Dal (Secular) have their corresponding support bases in different communities. The incumbent BJP has enjoyed massive (and consistent) support from Lingayats, a dominant community in the state.https://www.indiatoday.in/opinion-c...m_medium=mustread&utm_campaign=recommendation
Barring Coastal Karnataka and the Old Mysuru region, Lingayats are spread across the state and highly concentrated in northern Karnataka, especially in Mumbai-Karnataka. In 2018, nearly two-thirds or 64 per cent of Lingayats voted for the BJP. Per the exit poll data, that number will hold this time as well.
The BJP also has a significant hold among OBCs (excluding Kuruba and Vokkaliga), Marathas, and the forward castes. These groups constitute around 36 per cent of the total electorate in the state and BJP will receive more than half of their strength in the state, something that also happened in 2018. According to the exit poll, the saffron party has not conceded significant votes to its arch-rival, the Congress, among these communities.
On the other hand, the Congress, this time will find support among Kurubas, Muslims, and Scheduled Castes. These communities constitute 37 (SC and Muslim estimates from Census 2011 and Kuruba estimates by Axis My India) per cent of the total electorate.
ALSO READ | Karnataka exit polls: Decoding caste arithmetic, local issues, class divide
Nearly two-thirds of Kurubas and Muslims supported the Congress in 2018 and that trend is expected to continue this time as well. Among the Scheduled Castes, the Congress party will receive its largest gains, from 46 per cent in 2018 to 60 per cent this year.
The third major electoral player in the state and a dominant party in the state’s largest region (Old Mysuru) is the JD(S), a party that’s very popular among Vokkaligas. Due to the high concentration of Vokkaligas in Old Mysuru, the JD(S) has been able to win a significant number of seats in the last four Assembly elections. In the last two, the party enjoyed the lion’s share of Vokkaliga votes.
This time, however, the JD(S) will lose eight per cent of support (from 54 per cent in 2018 to 46 per cent in 2023) from the group.
REGIONAL VARIATIONS?
Karnataka is somewhat unique in the sense that major caste groups and communities are spread across the state. Whereas Lingayats have a high concentration in northern Karnataka, Vokkaligas are concentrated in Old Mysuru. Scheduled Castes have a higher concentration in Hyderabad-Karnataka (or Kalyana Karnataka). This is why all three parties have their own strongholds.However, the exit poll data suggests something has changed this time. Barring Coastal Karnataka, which has only 19 seats, Congress is a leading party across all remaining regions despite not being a leading party among all the social groups.
One thing that stands out, at least as per the exit poll numbers, is that the caste/community matrix is the same for the state as a whole and in individual regions. Parties have more-or-less gotten the same fraction of votes from their usual support bases with minor variances.
ALSO READ | In 3-way Karnataka fight, Congress's vote share 8% more than BJP's, shows India Today exit poll
Coastal Karnataka: The BJP will lead in this region among all the major caste groups except Kurubas. Among minorities like Christians and Muslims, the Congress has a massive lead over the BJP here. What’s interesting is that while the Congress will get the most SC votes, in Coastal Karnataka, the BJP -- not the Congress -- will enjoy greater support from them.
Among the forward castes, the BJP has a huge 51 per cent lead over the Congress: 76 per cent have thrown their support behind the BJP, while only 15 per cent will go with the Congress. Also, in this region, the BJP is more popular among women, with a 13 per cent lead over the Congress.
Central Karnataka: Here, the Congress is ahead among SCs, STs, Kurubas, and Muslims, while the BJP is ahead among Vokkaligas, OBCs, Lingayats, and upper castes.
Bengaluru: A highly urbanised region with a mix of communities, here again, the BJP will largely lead among OBCs, Lingayats, and upper castes. On the other hand, the Congress will lead among SCs, STs, Kurubas, and Muslims. This is the region where Congress has a 10 per cent lead over the BJP among women. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi having campaigned a lot in this region, the BJP may still trail behind the Congress.
Hyderabad-Karnataka: This region has the highest SC concentration. It is a Congress bastion and this time its support base here has increased. Among the SCs, Congress support is double that of the BJP. Fifty-six per cent of the SCs have supported the Congress as per the exit poll, while the BJP will get only 28 per cent support here. However, even in this region, the BJP has done well among Lingayats, OBCs, Marathas, and upper castes.
Mumbai (or Kittur) Karnataka: A BJP stronghold because of a high concentration of Lingayats and Marathas, this region will see the BJP lead among all major communities except SCs, Kurubas, and Muslims. Among Lingayats, Marathas, and OBCs, the BJP is more popular than the Congress. In fact, the saffron party will get almost double the Congress votes among Marathas and OBCs, and triple among Lingayats. This region is also significant for the BJP as the party is expected to get more than 40 per cent of women’s support here.
Old Mysuru: The largest region in the state with 64 Assembly seats, Old Mysuru, as mentioned before, has a high Vokkaliga concentration. According to the exit poll, 52 per cent of Vokkaligas will support the JD(S) while 23 and 21 per cent will vote for the Congress and the BJP respectively. Once again, the Congress here is ahead among its traditional support base of Kurubas, SCs, STs, and Muslims. And the BJP is ahead among Lingayats and upper castes. Among the OBCs, both the BJP and the Congress are neck and neck.
India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll: How Karnataka's castes, communities have voted across different regions?
The Congress, BJP and JD(S) have a strong backup from at least one dominant caste or community in Karnataka. So, how have different social groups shown their political allegiance this time? Using the exit poll data, we can discern both ongoing trends and changes from the norm.
