Majority in Punjab alone can make one the topmost party in Pakistan due to the National Assembly seats from Punjab. Nawaz Sharif knows this fact all too well.
Let's see what's going to happen.
Unlike ANY previous elections in Pakistan after at least the 1970 elections this time there is a strong national level 3rd party (PTI). They could become a spoiler and give PPP+MQM+ANP just enough seats to form the Federal govt. as well as govt. in Sindh. Imran Khan knows that he needs to eat into Nawaz Sharif's vote-bank in order to win but now (
with some heavy weights guiding him) he must know that the PPP is still the largest political party in Pakistan!
Anyway, one more crucial observation: These huge Jalsas and Juloos may not mean much if rigging is involved. In the 1990 elections Benazir Bhutto campaigned ferociously throughout the country, drawing huge crowds everywhere, and was almost certain to come back to power (after being sacked a few months ago) except the then Establishment had decided against that. In the end, the difference in the number of votes between the PPP and the rival alliance led by Nawaz Sharif was very little but PPP lost big way in terms of number of seats (stuffing some crucial ballot boxes was all it allegedly took). NOT saying this is necessarily going to happen again (especially since Imran Khan is probably well liked by the Estalishment) but just to you let ya know a bit from the history.
PS. @Areesh: Rest assured, I will vote PTI in the next elections if I can vote while in America (and the voting can be done without flying to big city). Otherwise, I am going to beg/threaten some lazy relative in Karachi to go and vote for PTI. May be I should do that (I mean the begging part) anyway