ACE OF THE AIR
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Sir,1-2 years ago AVIC officials told Alan Warnes that it was unlikely that China and Italy/UK would work together in pairing the SD-10 to the Vixen. So you either go all in with China, go all in with Western COTS, or make your own stuff and be trusted by outside partners to keep their stuff (e.g., source codes) under wraps.
With due respect over the years spoken to many PAF officials regarding what exactly are the JF-17's going to replace and how many would Pakistan be procuring for her own needs, no one was sure about this.
The best answer was PAF would not procure more than 150 JF-17's as we will also be procuring 50-75 F-16's new and old.
Today with the doors closed for F-16's were does PAF stands?
In my opinion there are mainly three (3) probabilities:
1) ADD more JF-17's.
2) Procure J-10
3) Any European fighter aircraft.
OPTION 1) JF-17.
Adding 150 JF-17's block 3 along with new production facility with a Western package + 100 JF-17 block 3 with Chinese package.
This would make PAF rely too much on JF-17...But the bright side would be PAF will no longer remain 60/40 partner but 90/10 partner.
OPTION 2) J-10
Procure 150 J-10 with Chinese package + Upgrade JF-17 with Western package + F-16s.
This will be a force multiplier however the source of aircraft would still remain Chinese.
OPTION 3) EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON
Procure 70-110 EFT of various tranche and JF-17s can be upgraded by Chinese package.