JF-17 Block-3 -- Updates, News & Discussion

[aliyusuf]

Well, one is already flying in Myanmar colours and at least three out of four have been photographed in Pakistani colours. This is while Block-3 production has not started yet.

JF-17 Thunder 17-07
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JF-17 Thunder 17-601
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JF-17 Thunder 19-603
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JF-17 Thunder 19-604
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I think we should wait till they are assigned to PAF squadrons, before drawing conclusions.

Myanmar B versions are Block-2 as they made a deal for Block-2 single seat as well.

Pakistani B versions will be equipped with AESA.

 

[SD 10]

Somebody had talked about sth with vague words and Cao Dongfeng interpreted as B3 has rolled about
Though I have smilar comprehesion about the words, it is only hint and not concrete fact. It is better to be patient and wait for more evidence.

this wait

 

[Xeson]

Just to get on with the guessing game, based on my readings here. Bit larger inlets. Engine performance slightly improved. Chin pod, no extra HPs but better load capacity. Nose cone modified for AESA. Ok ssshh with my

 

[StormBreaker]

Just to get on with the guessing game, based on my readings here. Bit larger inlets. Engine performance slightly improved. Chin pod, no extra HPs but better load capacity. Nose cone modified for AESA. Ok ssshh with my

You are a poor reader, and implying here by reader, deep thinking.

Widened inlets will give thunder an overall better air performance and maneuverability. We might even see 9Gs if Block 3 performs in Paris, faster and sharper turns.

As I speculated above, this might even result in an overall increase in belly, allowing 2 more HPs. More composites, lower RCS, better ground clearance.
These all are just my speculations based on the shortcomings of previous blocks.

 

[Xeson]

You are a poor reader, and implying here by reader, deep thinking.

U r utterly correct, though I was not implying anything of the sort of deep thinking. Just layman or fanboy sort.

Widened inlets will give thunder an overall better air performance and maneuverability. We might even see 9Gs if Block 3 performs in Paris, faster and sharper turns.

I did not negate that sire though my lack of knowledge on the subject might have made me not focus on it as such.

As I speculated above, this might even result in an overall increase in belly, allowing 2 more HPs. More composites, lower RCS, better ground clearance.

I don't anticipate the HPs due to possible implications for wings structure. With some increased fuel capacity and being able to carry more load on the existing HPs would still serve great. Also dual racks might cover up for that in future. Just my very poor reading based opinion.

If, but, may and might are all there as are If, but, may and might not... I hope and wish to see your speculations come true. If not.. good for me as I did not expect high. And many thanks for enlightening me.

 

[araz]

I have always wished to see J-10 replacing Mirages, around 56 J-10C by 2026-7 would suffice. Ps and PGs should be replaced by Block 3.


In this case, the proportionality remains constant. If intakes get bigger, so will DSI bumps, DSI helps in reducing frontal RCS due to it’s location of acting as a cover and as a result avoid direct exposure of turbine blades.

Regarding the J10 we have 2 issues. I thinkwe really need to wait to fly Block3 and come to grips with what it brings to the table for PAF. ONLY and only then can we objectively assess what pur needs are.
In a scenario where we are resource restrained we would want to do a cost benefit analysis to see the advantage vs disadvantages of having J10.
I feel that PAF feels that in an aggressor role they want a cheap and cheerful fighter to deliver the SOWS and RTB. It is because of its speed and cost of the plane that PAF continues with the Mirages. Replacing them means 110 platforms to be replaced when we still have tge PGs to replace. 110 J10Cs at 60 mollion a pop is a huge outlay. Itseems to methat the PAF still seems to be convinced it wants to continue with a westwrn platform due to pre existing infrastructure setup. Itcannotyet get the 16s that it wants and loves so to switch over to theJ10s would take time money and effort which will have their own effect on the PAF development plan.
Secondly where will this 7-8billion $ come from andatthecost of which project? This remains a major worry.
Obviously if the economics improve the decision chain would be different.
A

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Regarding the J10 we have 2 issues. I thinkwe really need to wait to fly Block3 and come to grips with what it brings to the table for PAF. ONLY and only then can we objectively assess what pur needs are.
In a scenario where we are resource restrained we would want to do a cost benefit analysis to see the advantage vs disadvantages of having J10.
I feel that PAF feels that in an aggressor role they want a cheap and cheerful fighter to deliver the SOWS and RTB. It is because of its speed and cost of the plane that PAF continues with the Mirages. Replacing them means 110 platforms to be replaced when we still have tge PGs to replace. 110 J10Cs at 60 mollion a pop is a huge outlay. Itseems to methat the PAF still seems to be convinced it wants to continue with a westwrn platform due to pre existing infrastructure setup. Itcannotyet get the 16s that it wants and loves so to switch over to theJ10s would take time money and effort which will have their own effect on the PAF development plan.
Secondly where will this 7-8billion $ come from andatthecost of which project? This remains a major worry.
Obviously if the economics improve the decision chain would be different.
A

IMHO ... the outlay the PAF would've put into an import fighter, that money is going into Project Azm. I reckon for the first 5-10 years of development, you would have to put down at least $300-400 m a year. That is equal to the procurement, support and operational cost of a Typhoon squadron (maybe a little less).

 

[araz]

IMHO ... the outlay the PAF would've put into an import fighter, that money is going into Project Azm. I reckon for the first 5-10 years of development, you would have to put down at least $300-400 m a year. That is equal to the procurement, support and operational cost of a Typhoon squadron (maybe a little less).

Andif the 16s especially old ones are made available? I think PAF will jump at the opportunity. Just my thinking.
But in general fully agree with you.
A

 

[StormBreaker]

Regarding the J10 we have 2 issues. I thinkwe really need to wait to fly Block3 and come to grips with what it brings to the table for PAF. ONLY and only then can we objectively assess what pur needs are.
In a scenario where we are resource restrained we would want to do a cost benefit analysis to see the advantage vs disadvantages of having J10.
I feel that PAF feels that in an aggressor role they want a cheap and cheerful fighter to deliver the SOWS and RTB. It is because of its speed and cost of the plane that PAF continues with the Mirages. Replacing them means 110 platforms to be replaced when we still have tge PGs to replace. 110 J10Cs at 60 mollion a pop is a huge outlay. Itseems to methat the PAF still seems to be convinced it wants to continue with a westwrn platform due to pre existing infrastructure setup. Itcannotyet get the 16s that it wants and loves so to switch over to theJ10s would take time money and effort which will have their own effect on the PAF development plan.
Secondly where will this 7-8billion $ come from andatthecost of which project? This remains a major worry.
Obviously if the economics improve the decision chain would be different.
A

I am fully convinced that inshaAllah, economy will show unimaginable or (due to our habit of living in series of economic troubles) growth. I never mentioned anywhere that we should just go for it. Nope. Take time for 4-5 years. If navy can manage to pull through heavy deals in billions, so can PAF on soft loans. But then again, it all depends on if we are getting more F-16s or not as well as upgrading current fleet to V.

Mirages roles can never be fulfilled by F-16 in a similar manner as a delta like J-10 (even not by J-10). Western options are nothing but eft and gripen, lets cut and throw gripen out (just a hyped up plane, nothing more than a potent light weight fighter). EFT can be pursued if we play strongly in terms of finances from ally’s and politics with Typhoon Consortium members. EFT could be the next best thing happened to PAF after F-16 (not counting thunders due to being relatively newer than both platforms and untested in A2A yet).
But, if we can build up cash for EFT like platform, so can we for J-20, which China would itself want to get us by CPEC Phase 3 so we can safely say no to EFT and given the fact that it won’t give us much new and that Thunders might get even better avionics by that time.

PAF is known to play quietly and change decisions in the last moments. No body on this forum, common man like us all can predict, and so called backed by sources also have to face changed situations as a surprise to what they have been told before.

It would be interesting for PAF to eventually take the blueprints of Thunder back to table, redesign to a whole new single engine 5th gen aircraft while AZM is on prototype stages which can then in 2 decades, replace Thunders along with AZM. Single engine stealth is quite a requirement for PAF in future. Given our likeness for single engines, we might eventually end up doing this or might take the TF-X single engine option. This is a necessity.

All i can believe is “Future is Great inshaAllah”. PAF is ambitious because of sincere leadership.

IMHO ... the outlay the PAF would've put into an import fighter, that money is going into Project Azm. I reckon for the first 5-10 years of development, you would have to put down at least $300-400 m a year. That is equal to the procurement, support and operational cost of a Typhoon squadron (maybe a little less).

Exactly, until we don’t reach LRIP or 2nd-3rd prototype, budget for AZM would be demanding. We couldn’t afford anything else taking into consideration current economic conditions in that era (which wouldn’t be the case inshaAllah)

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Andif the 16s especially old ones are made available? I think PAF will jump at the opportunity. Just my thinking.
But in general fully agree with you.
A

The F-16s will be the exception, always. For $4 billion US you can add 18 new Block-72 and upgrade our existing fleet to F-16V standards. That's a net-addition of 90+ fighters equipped with AESA radars.

So in that case, the PAF will probably think, "okay, let's delay Project Azm a bit" because it would have 4-5 units of high-end fighters to hold the fort down against anything the IAF throws at them. But no other import is going to get that consideration.

 

[Haris Ali2140]

The F-16s will be the exception, always. For $4 billion US you can add 18 new Block-72 and upgrade our existing fleet to F-16V standards. That's a net-addition of 90+ fighters equipped with AESA radars.

So in that case, the PAF will probably think, "okay, let's delay Project Azm a bit" because it would have 4-5 units of high-end fighters to hold the fort down against anything the IAF throws at them. But no other import is going to get that consideration.

USAF said in an article that they will take F-16s to 2045. If we have 90+ 4.5 gen fighters we are secure till 2040s. In the meantime we can also continue with AZM on a slower pace(or faster if economy allows) so that when the time for F-16s come AZM will be ready.

 

[StormBreaker]

Andif the 16s especially old ones are made available? I think PAF will jump at the opportunity. Just my thinking.
But in general fully agree with you.
A

The F-16s will be the exception, always. For $4 billion US you can add 18 new Block-72 and upgrade our existing fleet to F-16V standards. That's a net-addition of 90+ fighters equipped with AESA radars.

So in that case, the PAF will probably think, "okay, let's delay Project Azm a bit" because it would have 4-5 units of high-end fighters to hold the fort down against anything the IAF throws at them. But no other import is going to get that consideration.

MADE THIS A MONTH AGO. Have a look. Ignore the speculations i made about “these units could be for PAF”


WIKIPEDIA

On 16 January 2019, the Bulgarian parliament approved the government's proposal to start negotiations with the US to purchase F-16V Block 70 aircraft. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the possible sale on 30 May, identifying that aircraft as F-16C/D Block 70/72s and stating their price as $1.67 billion.However viewing the price being too high a lower price was offer after negotiations of $1.256 billion making a cost of just over $157 million per plane.The deal was vetoed by the Bulgarian President, Rumen Radev on 23 July 2019, citing the need to find a broader consensus for the deal, sending the deal back to parliament, but on 26 July the deal was again approved by parliament, overruling the veto, and this time was approved by Radev. The planes will be delivered by 2023-2024.

Used wiki as a quick source

So here are the calculations.

Already existing orders on LM :
= 30
16 For Bahrain
14 For Slovakia

Confirmed Sales :
Morocco = 25 New UNDER FMS/DSCA worth $3.79bn with supports, equipments. + $985.2mn to upgrade current 23 Block C/D 52s to Block 70/72 (JANE's ON Morocco F-16 a must read article, i will discuss below)


Now let's break down this. Aside from the pending 30 orders, they expect 60+, this plus before 60 is a very important one.

They have this order from morocca yet to be finalized (article of janes is contradicting the above article, jane's confirmed the sale, but not the same case in this article), of 25 units. 60-25 = 35

As per Sir @Khafee , We are looking for 36 New plus V upgrade. Bulgaria managed to get a deal of $1.256bn with $157mn for a single aircraft equating the deal to be for 8 units.

35+8 = 43
60-43 = 17

Now this 17 could be ours, could be not until we don't know what the Far East country is but whoever it is, wants 66+ as per article so that reference has got nothing to do with the 60+ expected above. 17*17 = 34

If this is 17 is for us, then we can expect our 70/72 deal to be in phases but our fleet upgradation to V standard could be with our first phase 17.
Bulgaria had to spend $985.2mn to upgrade 23 Block C/D 52s to 70/72 (15 Single / 8 Twin Seater)

Not taking into account the upgrade cost difference between single and twin, it costs around $42.3mn per Block 52 to be upgraded to V standard.

The upgrade features :

Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS)

• UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS)
• DB-110 Tactical Reconnaissance Pods (TRPs)
• Lockheed Martin AN/AAQ-33 Sniper pods
• Exelis AN/ALQ-211(V)9 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suite (AIDEWS) podded electronic warfare (EW) systems.

Weapons listed include

• Raytheon AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs)
• Boeing GBU-38/54 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits
• GBU-10/12/16/39/49/50 precision-guided bombs.

( Jane's article )

So a fleet of 76 Aircrafts ipgraded to V Standard will amount to AT LEAST $3.2bn plus the additional new 36 Block 70/72 = $5.65bn
totalling it to $8.8bn

Morocco is in a sort of similar situation like our's. It assists US in Iraq and Syria, now US has left Syria, let's see what becomes of the deal.

USAF said in an article that they will take F-16s to 2045. If we have 90+ 4.5 gen fighters we are secure till 2040s. In the meantime we can also continue with AZM on a slower pace(or faster if economy allows) so that when the time for F-16s come AZM will be ready.

F-16s should be pushed to at least 110 or 120

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Andif the 16s especially old ones are made available? I think PAF will jump at the opportunity. Just my thinking.
But in general fully agree with you.
A

Project Azm is to eventually replace the only medium-weight fighter, the F-16 in Pakistani inventory and also have a fully Pakistani owned and controlled substantially large fleet of fighters.

In my humble opinion, you have to look at this in the 2030s onward era. There's no rush because the next door enemy hasn't acquired a fifth gen fighter yet.

 

[StormBreaker]

Project Azm is to eventually replace the only medium-weight fighter, the F-16 in Pakistani inventory and also have a fully Pakistani owned and controlled substantially large fleet of fighters.

You have to look at this in the 2030s onward era. There's no rush because the next door enemy hasn't acquired a fifth gen fighter yet.

Next door enemy should not be taken lightly on table and paper. They lack leadership and ambition as well as courage. Fascists have these qualities except for courage because cowardness is in their blood. Fascists are taking over india... Future is uncertain.

They are getting S-400, can get Super Sukhoi upgrade, can get back to PAK-Fa, getting Rafales with a plan to double the fleet in future. Tejas MK-1a if really materialized, on books, it won’t be much different from Block 3. Mig-29s in their navy. However, even bigger threat is the numbers. Yes, their operatibility rates are quite sh*t, really laughable but just imagine some day, they get a really hateful leader who will give his full focus on defence command and structure, will be a bigger threat.

F-16s are like part of our Airforce’s soul now. Pilots have experienced combat on them, they have given Pakistan multiple victories with 0 loss rate (friendly fire crash ignored during Afg war), procuring more F-16s regardless of strings would eventually proce great for us.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Next door enemy should not be taken lightly on table and paper. They lack leadership and ambition as well as courage. Fascists have these qualities except for courage because cowardness is in their blood. Fascists are taking over india... Future is uncertain.

They are getting S-400, can get Super Sukhoi upgrade, can get back to PAK-Fa, getting Rafales with a plan to double the fleet in future. Tejas MK-1a if really materialized, on books, it won’t be much different from Block 3. Mig-29s in their navy. However, even bigger threat is the numbers. Yes, their operatibility rates are quite sh*t, really laughable but just imagine some day, they get a really hateful leader who will give his full focus on defence command and structure, will be a bigger threat.

F-16s are like part of our Airforce’s soul now. Pilots have experienced combat on them, they have given Pakistan multiple victories with 0 loss rate (friendly fire crash ignored during Afg war), procuring more F-16s regardless of strings would eventually proce great for us.

I agree, Pakistan will grab as many F-16s as possible in the coming years wherever they become available like they did with the Mirages in the 1990s. But Pakistan will not add a new foreign platform alongside the F-16s.