TOKYO—Since North Korea shocked Japan by lobbing a rocket over the country nearly 15 years ago, the Japanese have spent $12 billion trying to make sure it never happens again. Japan now has the most sophisticated missile-defense system outside the U.S., a system poised for export to other nations.
Japan's ambitious, costly effort to protect itself from North Korea's machinations and from potential threats from China could be tested as soon as Monday. That is the earliest date Pyongyang has said it plans to launch another multistage rocket that officials in Tokyo warn could fly on a trajectory over southernmost Japan. Over the weekend, North Korea said it may delay the launch to an unspecified date.
Just as the success of Israel's so-called Iron Dome antirocket system has attracted much attention in recent weeks, Japan's multilayered ballistic-missile defense program using licensed U.S. technology has been moving quietly in recent years from the drawing board to full deployment nationwide.
As part of the plan, starting as early as 2018, Japan is expected to begin full-scale production of a new generation of powerful interceptors developed jointly with the U.S., which wants the Japanese to export these missiles to other nations, in line with the recent softening of Tokyo's decades-old ban on most weapons shipments.
The latest state-of-the-art Japanese system uses both land-based Patriot-missile batteries and sea-based Aegis naval destroyers, along with dozens of radars. That makes Japan the only country outside the U.S. with both low-level and upper-tier defenses capable of intercepting threats beyond Earth's atmosphere.
"Japan is at the leading edge in that it's the only nation other than the U.S. with SM-3" intermediate-range missile interceptors, said Shinichi Ogawa, a professor at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University and the former research director at the Japanese defense ministry's National Institute for Defense Studies.
Experts say Japan's system is hard to compare with Israel's Iron Dome. "Technically the systems are quite different. Iron Dome is designed to hit relatively slow and low-flying rockets, and Japan's and American's more-sophisticated systems are designed to target faster and higher ballistic missiles," said Robert Farley, a professor of military doctrine at the University of Kentucky, who has written a blog post on the subject.
While a handful of live-fire trials have been held jointly with the U.S., Tokyo hasn't carried out an interception. That could change soon after Japan said Friday it would attempt to intercept any missile or debris headed toward Japanese territory.
The shoot-down order, which has been issued before but never carried out, came amid heightened tensions with North Korea. Before the weekend announcement of a possible delay, Pyongyang had said it planned to launch what it calls a multistage rocket at some point during a 13-day period starting Monday, despite strong protests from Japan and its allies.
"We will spare no effort in making preparations to deal with any launch in order to protect the Japanese people's assets and lives," Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said before touring two Patriot-missile launchers deployed on the grounds of Japan's defense ministry in central Tokyo.
In one sign of the developing capabilities of advanced-ballistic-missile defense, Japanese defense-ministry officials say they had the ability to pinpoint the location of North Korean long-range missiles launched in 2006 and 2009—and hint Japan would have had no trouble intercepting them.
"We precisely tracked both those missiles, so we are very confident in our system," Masayuki Iwaike, director of missile-defense and space policy in the ministry's defense-policy bureau, said in an interview.
Even if Japanese destroyers are technically capable of intercepting a missile, Tokyo has indicated it is inclined to use land-based Patriots, and only if Japanese territory is endangered. Experts say a sea-based interdiction shortly after launch could be seen as an act of aggression by North Korea.
The system was controversial when first proposed in 1993 due to its high cost and potential to antagonize neighboring states. But homegrown opposition evaporated five years later when North Korea sent a long-range multistage missile over northern Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.
Following years of study, Japan reached an agreement with the U.S. in 2003 to license technology for its ballistic-missile defense.
Since then, the program has accelerated, beginning with the first Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) and Aegis-equipped ship deployments in 2007. Today, Japan has 16 Patriot firing units capable of targeting low-level missiles and debris, and four Aegis destroyers armed with ballistic-missile interceptors.
The next stage is potentially even more ambitious—and controversial. Japan and the U.S. are set to begin tests of a new interceptor with vastly expanded speed and range. A production version of those missiles is expected from 2018 and, in what some government officials call a game changer, the U.S. is pushing hard for Japan to transfer this technology to other allied countries with Aegis systems.
Japan has agreed in principle to as much, as illustrated by a statement on the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's home page about the spread of regional ballistic-missile defense, which says: "The SM-3 Block IIA, being codeveloped with Japan, is on schedule for deployment at Aegis Ashore sites in Romania and Poland, and aboard Aegis BMD ships at sea."
Japanese officials, sensitive to domestic and foreign wariness about Japan emerging as a global-weapons supplier, are quick to say that no formal decision has been made to move forward. But last year, Tokyo cleared the way by lifting a self-imposed ban on arms shipments overseas dating from 1967.
"There are no concrete plans to deliver to a third party because we are still in the development phase," said Mr. Iwaike of the defense ministry. "In theory, we could export them, but we haven't done that."
In addition to advanced interceptor technology, Japan's missile defense is also plugged into America's most advanced early-warning systems, including infrared spy satellites and powerful radar known as X-band. The first X-band radar—called an AN/TPY-2—was installed in northern Japan five years ago and is operated by the U.S. military, which sees it as a crucial piece of its surveillance architecture.
"That was a great step forward in our cooperation in missile defense with Japan," Lt. Gen. Salvatore "Sam" Angelella, head of U.S. Forces Japan, told reporters last month. "Anything dangerous from North Korea… will be part of that defense."
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323316804578165023312727616
Japan's ambitious, costly effort to protect itself from North Korea's machinations and from potential threats from China could be tested as soon as Monday. That is the earliest date Pyongyang has said it plans to launch another multistage rocket that officials in Tokyo warn could fly on a trajectory over southernmost Japan. Over the weekend, North Korea said it may delay the launch to an unspecified date.
Just as the success of Israel's so-called Iron Dome antirocket system has attracted much attention in recent weeks, Japan's multilayered ballistic-missile defense program using licensed U.S. technology has been moving quietly in recent years from the drawing board to full deployment nationwide.
As part of the plan, starting as early as 2018, Japan is expected to begin full-scale production of a new generation of powerful interceptors developed jointly with the U.S., which wants the Japanese to export these missiles to other nations, in line with the recent softening of Tokyo's decades-old ban on most weapons shipments.
The latest state-of-the-art Japanese system uses both land-based Patriot-missile batteries and sea-based Aegis naval destroyers, along with dozens of radars. That makes Japan the only country outside the U.S. with both low-level and upper-tier defenses capable of intercepting threats beyond Earth's atmosphere.
"Japan is at the leading edge in that it's the only nation other than the U.S. with SM-3" intermediate-range missile interceptors, said Shinichi Ogawa, a professor at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University and the former research director at the Japanese defense ministry's National Institute for Defense Studies.
Experts say Japan's system is hard to compare with Israel's Iron Dome. "Technically the systems are quite different. Iron Dome is designed to hit relatively slow and low-flying rockets, and Japan's and American's more-sophisticated systems are designed to target faster and higher ballistic missiles," said Robert Farley, a professor of military doctrine at the University of Kentucky, who has written a blog post on the subject.
While a handful of live-fire trials have been held jointly with the U.S., Tokyo hasn't carried out an interception. That could change soon after Japan said Friday it would attempt to intercept any missile or debris headed toward Japanese territory.
The shoot-down order, which has been issued before but never carried out, came amid heightened tensions with North Korea. Before the weekend announcement of a possible delay, Pyongyang had said it planned to launch what it calls a multistage rocket at some point during a 13-day period starting Monday, despite strong protests from Japan and its allies.
"We will spare no effort in making preparations to deal with any launch in order to protect the Japanese people's assets and lives," Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said before touring two Patriot-missile launchers deployed on the grounds of Japan's defense ministry in central Tokyo.
In one sign of the developing capabilities of advanced-ballistic-missile defense, Japanese defense-ministry officials say they had the ability to pinpoint the location of North Korean long-range missiles launched in 2006 and 2009—and hint Japan would have had no trouble intercepting them.
"We precisely tracked both those missiles, so we are very confident in our system," Masayuki Iwaike, director of missile-defense and space policy in the ministry's defense-policy bureau, said in an interview.
Even if Japanese destroyers are technically capable of intercepting a missile, Tokyo has indicated it is inclined to use land-based Patriots, and only if Japanese territory is endangered. Experts say a sea-based interdiction shortly after launch could be seen as an act of aggression by North Korea.
The system was controversial when first proposed in 1993 due to its high cost and potential to antagonize neighboring states. But homegrown opposition evaporated five years later when North Korea sent a long-range multistage missile over northern Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.
Following years of study, Japan reached an agreement with the U.S. in 2003 to license technology for its ballistic-missile defense.
Since then, the program has accelerated, beginning with the first Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) and Aegis-equipped ship deployments in 2007. Today, Japan has 16 Patriot firing units capable of targeting low-level missiles and debris, and four Aegis destroyers armed with ballistic-missile interceptors.
The next stage is potentially even more ambitious—and controversial. Japan and the U.S. are set to begin tests of a new interceptor with vastly expanded speed and range. A production version of those missiles is expected from 2018 and, in what some government officials call a game changer, the U.S. is pushing hard for Japan to transfer this technology to other allied countries with Aegis systems.
Japan has agreed in principle to as much, as illustrated by a statement on the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's home page about the spread of regional ballistic-missile defense, which says: "The SM-3 Block IIA, being codeveloped with Japan, is on schedule for deployment at Aegis Ashore sites in Romania and Poland, and aboard Aegis BMD ships at sea."
Japanese officials, sensitive to domestic and foreign wariness about Japan emerging as a global-weapons supplier, are quick to say that no formal decision has been made to move forward. But last year, Tokyo cleared the way by lifting a self-imposed ban on arms shipments overseas dating from 1967.
"There are no concrete plans to deliver to a third party because we are still in the development phase," said Mr. Iwaike of the defense ministry. "In theory, we could export them, but we haven't done that."
In addition to advanced interceptor technology, Japan's missile defense is also plugged into America's most advanced early-warning systems, including infrared spy satellites and powerful radar known as X-band. The first X-band radar—called an AN/TPY-2—was installed in northern Japan five years ago and is operated by the U.S. military, which sees it as a crucial piece of its surveillance architecture.
"That was a great step forward in our cooperation in missile defense with Japan," Lt. Gen. Salvatore "Sam" Angelella, head of U.S. Forces Japan, told reporters last month. "Anything dangerous from North Korea… will be part of that defense."
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323316804578165023312727616
