Indus Pakistan
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Agree 100%. I don't think people quite appreciate what is happening. For me the real war is not on mountains but in the homes. I think Afghan society is in throes of profound change and it will never go back. The young have seen the light and they want it badly. Thus the mass migration pressure. Since the young are the majority every year forward is exponential advance in years. My only concern and fear is the intense hatred nurtured of Pakistan within this group. This will hold back integration and hijack the future - it's consequences could resonate into next generation. I hope not but I fear that.But changes are happening in Afghanistan
I also think the possibility of Taliban victory is zero now. I must confess I was slightly partial to them (tribal instinct possibly) but now I can see they never will win for two reasons.
1. The West has been in Afghanustan now for over 15 years. A whole generation has grown up in that time. A whole crop of educated is taking to the field. This is obvious by online Afghan presence.- foreign or at home.
2. The Western investment in $100s of billions has created a receptive group who owe their existance to Western input. This group is getting larger and more consolidated.
3. Despite most NATO forces leaving the Afghan forces are still holding ground - despite the challanges. Given that they are yestedays inventions it is going to take time but every year forward means they get consoldated more.
4. Most importantly the "backbone" is the West and it has made it clear there is no way they are leaving. In other words US forces are in Afgh., on open ended like they were in Europe. In theory if needed they could still be there in 50 years. What is more US can maintain a small force for indefinite time. This force is there right now in Afgh., and it provides the backnone to ANA forces. As along as the US force is there ANA will not collapse as US will not allow that to happen.
5. China despite reservations of US being in the region does not want a vacuam developing in Afgh., with Taliban moving into Kabul. China is even more averse to Taliban then the West is. This means the West and China share more or less the same views as regards Afghanistan.
AS Chinese influence increases in particular post CPEC the Chinese will start applying pressure on Pakistan and on Afghanistan to cooperate to fully maximise CPEC as Afghanistan inclusion would really compliment CPEC.
I certainly do not think Chinese will appreciate Af-Pak shutting each other out. On the other hand I don't think they will like significant Indian ingress into Afghanistan.
Anyway let us see how this plays out.
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