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Is the India growth story over?

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All the negative stories are good for India, this will help our politicians wake up.
 
i am more worried about chinese economy.

no matter how bad indian economy does not a single economist will paint a bad picture for india keeping in the mind the strong fundamentals of the country.

on the other had almost 90% of world economists today are predicting chinese economic burst. china has lost almost 200 bill from its foreign reserves since last year.. go worry about that.



do u even know what a bubble bursting iss????

Strong fundamentals lol what ??

China being communist country has more open market than India
If I were to start a business I will be more happy to start it in China than in India

As far as growth is concerned China is doing well ..
China's growth from 11% fell to 8% but ours fell from 9.4% to 5.4% that's like almost halved ..
Plus not to mention their base level is higher than us coz their GDP is 4 times more than us
 
Wakey, wakey: India slips to No 4 in growth sweepstakes

Even about a week ago, Kaushik Basu, in an exit interview after resigning as Chief Economic Advisor in the finance ministry, could shoo away the economic cassandras with this argument: but we are till the second-fastest growing economy in the world. What can we do if the whole world is slowing down?

In an interview to Karan Thapar broadcast on CNN-IBN, Basu was asked about the Indian economy’s continuous economic decline, and he replied: “I agree, but now put it in a scale. It has come down according to our own past. But do a little bit of cross-country comparison; I must compel you to do that. Use The Economist magazine’s back page forecast for 42 countries for the year 2012, India ranks No 2. So, the whole world’s growth has come down but we are roughly maintaining the same position in the global chart.”

Correction, Dr Basu. India was No 2. It isn’t anymore.

Hear Rajeev Malik, Senior Economist at CLSA in Singapore, on this: “Tabulation of 1Q12 (January-March 2012) GDP growth rates for EM (emerging markets) Asia shows an interesting comparison: For the second consecutive quarter, India was not the second-fastest growing economy after China.”

The fourth quarter (Q4) GDP numbers released on Thursday by the Central Statistical Office showed growth slipping to 5.3 percent. For most economists, barring the sarkari ones, it was merely a confirmation that the economy is into a free fall from the peak hit in January-March 2011, when GDP grew 9.2 percent.

Says Malik: “India’s growth has slowed largely because of macro imbalances and policy inconsistencies fathered by the government (it has done little else), but some other Asian countries have actually done better despite facing the same global challenges. I doubt the Indian government has woken up to this shifting regional ranking, even if it lands up being temporary.”

In Q4 of 2011-12, India was No 4 in the growth sweepstakes behind Philippines (6.4 percent) and Indonesia (6.3 percent). China, as usual, was tops at 8.1 percent.

Ironing out quarterly blips, in the six months to March 2012, India’s GDP grew 5.7 percent, behind China (8.5 percent) and Indonesia (6.4 percent), thus coming in at No 3 even here.

CLSA’s full-year (calendar) forecast for 2012 still shows India hanging in there – barely — and the No 2 position could be a toss-up between India, Philippines and Indonesia (all projected at 6 percent).

But a lot depends on whether the UPA gets its reform and growth act together by then. Else, it may lose out to the other No 2 candidates, and Thailand at No 5 with 5.5 percent growth projection will be snapping at India’s heels.

Malik concludes: “India’s challenges are largely self-inflicted but not insurmountable. However, they will require a government that is awake and willing to use some political capital, and avoids making more policy boo-boos. The problems are known, the solutions are also known. But the political will to implement the solutions is still missing, which is partly why it is an abnormal cycle and the much-needed adjustment will be more protracted. We’ll have a combination of weak growth and still-high inflation for longer.”

Wakey, wakey: India slips to No 4 in growth sweepstakes | Firstpost

OMG Number4 behind philipines and indonesia what happen to shinning india and incredible india

WAKE UP!!
Its Everywhere ..............SH$T hit the wall:


AFP - China's manufacturing activity grew at a markedly lower rate in May, official data showed Friday, providing further confirmation that the world's number two economy is slowing rapidly.

The official purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 50.4 from 53.3 in April, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.

While the figure marked the sixth consecutive month of expansion, it was below market expectations. Economists had predicted it would come in at 51.5, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

"The rather sharp decline in the May PMI accords with the trend of economic slowdown," Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the federation, said in a statement.

An index for new orders also issued by the federation on Friday was down sharply, dipping to 49.8 in May from 54.5 in the previous month.

"Based on this, we can expect that enterprises will operate at an even slower rate in the future, and economic growth may continue to decline," Zhang said.

China's export-driven economy has begun to slow this year, with growth falling to 8.1 percent in the first quarter from 9.2 percent in 2011, as woes in key export markets such as Europe and the United States hit its overseas sales.

Concerns over growth intensified after April data showed industrial production, imports, exports, fixed-asset investment and bank lending all grew at a slower rate than expected.

Beijing has lowered the amount of money that banks are required to hold in their coffers, and economists predict more measures to come.

British banking giant HSBC last week issued its own PMI index, with its preliminary reading of trends in May, suggesting that manufacturing contracted for the seventh consecutive month as exports deteriorated.

HSBC's manufacturing figures typically paint a bleaker picture than China's official numbers.

The HSBC survey puts more emphasis on smaller companies, which are suffering more in the economic downturn than state-owned giants.
China manufacturing growth slows down - FRANCE 24
 
All the negative stories are good for India, this will help our politicians wake up.

Then why are the "regional parties" in India becoming so much stronger, according to the latest polls?

Isn't that just going to make policy paralysis even worse?
 
hello chinese and pakistanis let me show you the mirror...

Chinese growth piggy banks on mostly govt. fixed investments on unproductive constructional activities .. this provides millions of jobs so that million chinese dont go up against CCP and also serves the purpose of showing higher level of development activities like production of construction commodities and consumption of this activities and jobs created .. this basically adds up to 50% or more GDP produce measured.... this will come to haunt chinese ... when these constructed infrastructure like the ghost cities we see... produces no revenue ... chinese are riding a tiger .. once they stop this ... chinese economy will hardly grow 4-5%..


now here is for pakistanis...

10% less double counted GDP
10% inflation
3% growth (Fudged figures)
Non availability of energy (electricity + gas + coal)
500 million $ FDI


actually pakistanis was in depression last fiscal year ...
i see pakistan defaulting with in coming years.. USA for countless times saved pakistani from defaulting from 50s to current decade.. but as USA puts away her hand .. IMF .. WB and US aid will dry down.. pakistan will left with no revenue ...
i see pakistani going from a current situation of in governance to a situation like somalia ...


and now some lessons about India...

Indian service sector grew 10% this year basically pushing GDP% numbers to current 6.5%..
due to indian goverments following policies..

Policy paralyses
Socialist policy (giving food, fuel , NREGA subsidies to garner rural poor vote back from sonia's pig son raul gandhi)
RBI interest rates..

but these factors only affect industry and consumption side of story. indian service sector dont have concern of indian
infrastructure and any legal blockades like industry and infrastructure and as service sector is the main growth engine of indian economy ... with declining rupee.. i expect service sector to grow close to 15% ..
taking indian gdp growth to around 7% easily...

and in case indian govt.. try to get out of paralyses and pull some speedy decisions and RBI cuts some interest rates india will touch 8-9% or more this current fiscal cycle ...

but still inspite of govt . indian will most likely grow close to 7.5%...
remember india has and india can grow despite of government pulling indian economies feet ...
cheers to Indian spirit and my fellow indians :)
 
Then why are the "regional parties" in India becoming so much stronger, according to the latest polls?

Isn't that just going to make policy paralysis even worse?

Because they need to feed something to general public to show their report card in upcoming Poll..
This is democracy 101 mate.
 
China's growth model can't last

China's growth model can't last | The Columbia Daily Tribune - Columbia, Missouri

China’s non-manufacturing growth slows down

gulfnews : China


Asia struggles to ward off impact of European crisis

Business - Asia struggles to ward off impact of European crisis

Stocks fall sharply after weak jobs report – China growth significantly slowing

Stocks fall sharply after weak jobs report – China growth significantly slowing | Kuwait Times

Slowing growth in China sideswipes manufacturing

Slowing growth in China sideswipes manufacturing - The Globe and Mail

World Bank cuts Chinese growth forecast

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/.../World-Bank-cuts-Chinese-growth-forecast.html

and many moreeeeeee..................
 
China growth rate fell from 11% to 8.1% - fell by around 3%
India growth fell from 9% to 6.7% - fell by around 2.5%
Pakistan growth .....never mind


Why Chinese crying on India's growth rather than their own growth
 
Here's more for people who live in Alice in wonderland :

Global economic crisis: China, India, Brazil are slowing down, plunging world into possible recession. - Slate Magazine


The Coming Global Recession
China, India, and Brazil are all slowing down simultaneously, plunging the entire world into economic crisis.

America is still recovering from the Great Recession and Europe is melting down, yet from a global perspective, the economy has never been as healthy or prosperous. The world economy enjoyed amazing growth from 2002-08, took a small dip in 2009, and then went back to growing. Sadly the good news seems to be coming to an end in Brazil, China, and India, and that’s horrible news for us.

Mercedes-Benz, Brazil’s No. 2 maker of trucks and buses, announced early Wednesday morning that it would be laying off 1,500 workers in Latin America’s largest market. Volvo AB has also announced a temporary halt to Brazilian truck production. The first half of May saw a staggering 22 percent year-on-year drop in Brazilian heavy vehicle purchases. Overall economic growth slowed last year to a bit under 3 percent, and Brazil’s finance minister recently had to cut the 2012 growth forecast to a number many private forecasters think is still too high. And problems for Brazil aren’t just problems for Brazil, as neighboring Argentina (and other smaller countries like Uruguay and Paraguay) rely on Brazil to buy their exports.

More alarmingly, both China and India are running into trouble. Catch-up growth, in which a poor country improves its public policy, begins importing foreign production techniques, and gets rapidly richer is a time-honored Asian tradition. We saw it in Japan, then South Korea, then Taiwan and other Asian “tiger” economies in the 1980s and ’90s. China and India are so large that their catch-up growth was able to raise the entire worldwide rate of economic growth. That’s why the world economy kept growing through the 2008-09 financial calamity.
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The slowdown in India, which remains a much poorer country than China, is very alarming. Even as its economy surged recently, the country did little to raise the productivity of the agricultural sector in which most Indians work. The Indian government had a promising idea on that score: to open the retail sector to foreign firms such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour. Large international chains have experience working with farmers in more productive countries and could be the mechanism for transferring better methods to Indian growers. That could have meant higher agricultural wages and better living standards for India’s urban poor. But faced with pressure from incumbent retailing interests, the government backed down from the plan. That was both a lost opportunity and a blow to the confidence of foreign investors.

And then there’s China. Most of China’s growth takeoff in the aughts was powered, famously, by exports to rich countries—especially the United States. When we stumbled into recession, China needed to change. And change it has. The country’s total trade surplus is now modest enough that it runs deficits in some months.

But rather than rebalancing to a more conventional consumer-focused economy, the Chinese government weathered the recession by engineering an unprecedented boom in domestic real estate and infrastructure investment. Investment is a good thing, but there was simply no way for the country to sustain double-digit growth in investment. Inevitably, the real estate market has started to unravel and even though the official GDP figures still look strong, other data less amenable to manipulation such as electricity demand and railroad shipments show a sharp slowdown.

Which brings us back to Brazil’s trucks. The world’s developing economies are now tightly linked. China’s boom has been excellent news for Brazil’s exports of airplanes and agricultural products, and, as we’ve seen, Brazilian growth has powered Argentine exports. That in turn has produced a market throughout the region for local car and truck production. Commodity exports have also spurred Africa’s best decade on record. The continent is such an economic minnow that its solid growth has gone largely unnoticed, but in terms of human welfare, increased incomes in the poorest part of the world have meant huge gains, including a very rapid decline in child mortality.

The Chinese growth dynamo that rescued the world economy after the financial crisis isn’t going to reappear this time around. That means the stakes as Europe confronts the ongoing meltdown of its banks and America faces the prospect of a new debt ceiling standoff are higher than ever. The bad economic news of 2008-09 came with the major silver lining that growth continued in the places that needed it most. This time around, if the rich countries can’t get our act together, the whole world will spiral into recession.
 
Then why are the "regional parties" in India becoming so much stronger, according to the latest polls?

Isn't that just going to make policy paralysis even worse?

what latest polls ? thats only in two states and in those two states regional parties are ruling from last 30 years.
 
No country's growth story is over. America is the biggest economy and it still manages to grow at 2-3% rate. Developing countries still have lots to catch up on so no growth story will be over till there is balance in world power order.

I wouldn't say India's growth story is over, but it's definitely not all that what some Indian posters on here claim. India would have to say good bye to their 2010s 'double digit' growth dream for upcoming 2-3 years.
 
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