Is it time for Pakistan to seriously start considering an ICBM ?

[The Deterrent]

Pakistan's prestige does not depend on having ICBMs but its survival does. Of course, those who are doing the bidding for uncle sam will try their best to stop Pakistan from having ICBMs.

Here it comes...Did you read the first page?

 

[LeGenD]

Pakistan's prestige does not depend on having ICBMs but its survival does. Of course, those who are doing the bidding for uncle sam will try their best to stop Pakistan from having ICBMs.

Thank you for showing your concern for Pakistan but keep in mind that we (Pakistani) are most concerned about our security needs.

However, we (Pakistani) also have more pressing matters to deal with at the moment. Even Bangladesh is doing better economically then Pakistan.

We (Pakistani) need to strengthen our country internally first before we plan for very expensive military endeavors. ICBM project is very expensive for countries like ours.

Pakistan currently faces economic threat from its enemies, if you have not noticed yet. Pakistan is specially loosing the water war against India with passage of time. Corrupt Pakistani politicians are equally responsible.

Developing ICBM will not solve our problems. If it is to keep potential enemies from far flung regions at bay; you are sadly mistaken. With poor economy, we won't be able to afford these missiles in large numbers and cost of maintenance and R&D will be enormous.

Quote from FAS:

These foreign outlets have also exposed the proliferant world to the high expense associated with building an ICBM. In the late 1980s, Iraq could afford to trade some of its oil wealth for the cost of buying the entire corporate talent of one research and development (R&D) firm. Most economies that can sustain such a high level of funding are either already building space launch vehicles (France and China), are in a multilateral arrangement to build one (Germany, Great Britain, Italy), or have recently abandoned building one because of market forces (South Africa). ICBM attacks must also be effective because a launching nation will get few opportunities to continue the attack. The simple cost of an ICBM limits the total size of a missile inventory. This decreases the potential for sustained firing of ICBMs, a tactic used to disrupt a society by the threat of repeated chemical weapons attacks by long-range missiles.

Also, ICBM project would have its drawbacks too.

1. ICBM launch sites can be easily targeted. Even mobile ICBM platforms are difficult to hide. And few numbers would be useless, unless nuclear warheads are used which would be unlikely. Nuclear weapons are restricted to deterrence roles now.

2. Political rammifications will be enormous. ICBM project will draw unwanted attention from the entire world. With our internationl image already down the drain, we can be economically isolated by the international community to give up this program. US may even threaten to take preliminary action against us to force us to end this project. Even if the project is kept secret from the public during development phase, this still does not guarantees cover from foreign intelligence agencies. Sooner or later, we would need to test prototypes and this will blow the cover, if it is not lifted before.

So you do the math now. All of this is not as easy as it sounds or we would have developed a prototype by now.

 

[bubble123]

First of all thanks to all Indian and Pakistani friends for participating in the discussion.

@Those Pakistani friends who say no

Would you have imagined

on 29th may 1998 the present condition of Pakistan
our countries loss of sovereignty
daily suicide bombings
one of the members in the post said that its gonna give another reason to US to capture our nukes.my friend would you have even thought in your wildest dreams 10 years ago that situation would become so bad that you would have to say so.

no my friend on 29th may 1998 everybody in Pakistan thought that have become invincible but look what changed in just a decade.

World is full of examples of how greatest allies turned into deadly enemies almost overnight.

I am not saying that US is necessarily a threat but who knows what level they can go. even just a year ago nobody would had thought that America had the courage to raid inside Pakistan.

My Point is you don't know the future,you can not predict the future, all you can do is anticipate the situation on current trends and do your best for the future.

An ICBM will be like an insurance policy of Pakistan.

@economy guyz

Pakistan's budget is $30 billion. just Corruption in the country is almost worth a trillion rupees. Military budget is 5-6 billion dollars.I don't know how a few hundred million dollars or even a few billion dollars spread over 1-2 decades would have any effect at all on our economy.Even if we take maintenance into account.

The money is minute compared to the money lost in corruption,nepotism,mismanagement,tax evasion. You know what an ICBM is not gonna effect your economy.you wanna get good economy get rid of these things and the feudal system. "Oh ICBM is gonna drain us dry" is just an excuse presented to hide the inability of our nation to get rid of the social evils.

My friend Chinese started building an economy but only when that had nukes,ICBMs and SLBMs. They relied on these weapons for protection while they made their economy.

It would be foolish to think that if America exits Afghanistan this WOT business will end.If America attacks us tomorrow what are we gonna do ??? Throw rocks at them.

 

[The Deterrent]

First of all thanks to all Indian and Pakistani friends for participating in the discussion.

@Those Pakistani friends who say no

Would you have imagined

on 29th may 1998 the present condition of Pakistan
our countries loss of sovereignty
daily suicide bombings
one of the members in the post said that its gonna give another reason to US to capture our nukes.my friend would you have even thought in your wildest dreams 10 years ago that situation would become so bad that you would have to say so.

no my friend on 29th may 1998 everybody in Pakistan thought that have become invincible but look what changed in just a decade.

World is full of examples of how greatest allies turned into deadly enemies almost overnight.

I am not saying that US is necessarily a threat but who knows what level they can go. even just a year ago nobody would had thought that America had the courage to raid inside Pakistan.

My Point is you don't know the future,you can not predict the future, all you can do is anticipate the situation on current trends and do your best for the future.

An ICBM will be like an insurance policy of Pakistan.

@economy guyz

Pakistan's budget is $30 billion. just Corruption in the country is almost worth a trillion rupees. Military budget is 5-6 billion dollars.I don't know how a few hundred million dollars or even a few billion dollars spread over 1-2 decades would have any effect at all on our economy.Even if we take maintenance into account.

The money is minute compared to the money lost in corruption,nepotism,mismanagement,tax evasion. You know what an ICBM is not gonna effect your economy.you wanna get good economy get rid of these things and the feudal system. "Oh ICBM is gonna drain us dry" is just an excuse presented to hide the inability of our nation to get rid of the social evils.

My friend Chinese started building an economy but only when that had nukes,ICBMs and SLBMs. They relied on these weapons for protection while they made their economy.

It would be foolish to think that if America exits Afghanistan this WOT business will end.If America attacks us tomorrow what are we gonna do ??? Throw rocks at them.

Brother you probably didn't consider my first post...

US is an enemy or a friend...it does not matter...
The thing is,if US is going to attack Pakistan,it will do so within the next 3 yrs max...this is not enough time to make an ICBM which can reach US (i.e. 11,000 km range ) ...this is the reality and the fact...

None of us can change that...this door is closed,we'll have to do something else...

For example,if US attacks,it will do it through Afghanistan...we can take out their military bases...very easy...

I agree ICBMs are good for deterrence,but we simply do not need them now...nor can we make one now...so why waste money?

Pakistan has to define the target/enemy in clear terms officially before taking any kind of this step...

 

[The Deterrent]

Please consult LeGend's post 35 for more technical details and disadvantages of the ICBM...

 

[Jihad]

How great and prestigious an ICBM might sound for Pakistan.
It's just not feasible at the current moment.
Not when our economy is strained, most of our politicians being corrupt, and our army fightning a war on multiple fronts versus the Taliban insurgents and their ideology.

As patriotic as I am, I'd still be even more proud if ALL of our people had a home to live in, acces to basic necessities in life, good education & healthcare and so forth.
If these priorities are set right and achieven to an extent where every Pakistani can use them, then I would be damn proud, if not, in tears with joy.

Our main enemy currently is the Taliban movement, their followers, their mindset and their network.
We are currently engaged in a war versus them, and most definitely do not need an ICBM for that, unless we want to blow our own country up to smithereens.

And ofcourse, I won't forget to mention India.
We can never take anything for granted when it comes to our neighbour, as harsh as that may sound, that's the reality.
But we already have them covered and we posess credible deterrence to fend off any misadventures by our neighbour.

As for the people even thinking of a possible worst case scenario/war with the U.S.
Forget it, they're too powerful, and it would never ever be in our interests to launch an ICBM at them, if we ever master the art, that is.

The main thing we should focus on for now is to strengthen our economy and get rid of the Taliban cancer which is infecting parts of our beautiful nation.

But who knows, maybe our scientists are already working hard in the background on perhaps an ICBM.
Maybe the platforms are there, or everything still on the drawing board. Who knows.

But one thing is for sure, as great as it might sound, succes in strengthening the overall well-being of our people and rooting out the Taliban is greater then the need for an ICBM.

Once we dug ourselves up out of this hole and the Pakistani engine becomes well oiled, perhaps then can we dream or think of an ICBM in our inventory.

 

[ashokdeiva]

First of all thanks to all Indian and Pakistani friends for participating in the discussion.

@Those Pakistani friends who say no

Would you have imagined

on 29th may 1998 the present condition of Pakistan
our countries loss of sovereignty
daily suicide bombings
one of the members in the post said that its gonna give another reason to US to capture our nukes.my friend would you have even thought in your wildest dreams 10 years ago that situation would become so bad that you would have to say so.

no my friend on 29th may 1998 everybody in Pakistan thought that have become invincible but look what changed in just a decade.

World is full of examples of how greatest allies turned into deadly enemies almost overnight.

I am not saying that US is necessarily a threat but who knows what level they can go. even just a year ago nobody would had thought that America had the courage to raid inside Pakistan.

My Point is you don't know the future,you can not predict the future, all you can do is anticipate the situation on current trends and do your best for the future.

An ICBM will be like an insurance policy of Pakistan.

@economy guyz

Pakistan's budget is $30 billion. just Corruption in the country is almost worth a trillion rupees. Military budget is 5-6 billion dollars.I don't know how a few hundred million dollars or even a few billion dollars spread over 1-2 decades would have any effect at all on our economy.Even if we take maintenance into account.

The money is minute compared to the money lost in corruption,nepotism,mismanagement,tax evasion. You know what an ICBM is not gonna effect your economy.you wanna get good economy get rid of these things and the feudal system. "Oh ICBM is gonna drain us dry" is just an excuse presented to hide the inability of our nation to get rid of the social evils.

My friend Chinese started building an economy but only when that had nukes,ICBMs and SLBMs. They relied on these weapons for protection while they made their economy.

It would be foolish to think that if America exits Afghanistan this WOT business will end.If America attacks us tomorrow what are we gonna do ??? Throw rocks at them.

Kindly consider that, it would have not taken more than a crore rupee to capture Osama in your country by your forces, but you say that you are willing to spend billions in hard earned money of the people, just to aviod another raid inside Pakistan. are you speeking out of rational sence or just blabering out.

 

[desiman]

No I think we need to improve our existing weapons and make sure they 100% deliver the potent stuff @ New Delhi, Bangalore, Mumbai etc.In my opinion, if we have to exercise nuclear option then it must be used as shock and awe strategy and we should launch the nukes at Major Economic and Population centers along with Dam's etc so as to take maximum number lives (Civilian Plus Military).Basically, completely devastate the adversary and take out a significant population of the adversary (Specially, the well educated population which will take decades to reproduce).

And you think we will leave even a single Pakistani after you hit our cities ? Please grow up and stop with your war mongering.

 

[Dalai Lama]

Yes, and make sure to use the funds allocated for education.

 

[Malik Usman]

We basically not much needed the ICBM..........the same money we can spend on different projects.....like helicopter developments or imporving of PAF fleets with JF-17 II or we can use this money more on Drone technology...etc.etc.

 

[The Deterrent]

We basically not much needed the ICBM..........the same money we can spend on different projects.....like helicopter developments or imporving of PAF fleets with JF-17 II or we can use this money more on Drone technology...etc.etc.

Exactly...ICBMs are useless for Pakistan...and by the time we make it,US will be far far advanced in ABM technology...

 

[LeGenD]

Pakistan's budget is $30 billion. just Corruption in the country is almost worth a trillion rupees. Military budget is 5-6 billion dollars.I don't know how a few hundred million dollars or even a few billion dollars spread over 1-2 decades would have any effect at all on our economy.Even if we take maintenance into account.

The money is minute compared to the money lost in corruption,nepotism,mismanagement,tax evasion. You know what an ICBM is not gonna effect your economy.you wanna get good economy get rid of these things and the feudal system. "Oh ICBM is gonna drain us dry" is just an excuse presented to hide the inability of our nation to get rid of the social evils.

My friend, the cost of ICBM project will be in billions of dollars. Already people say that our defence budget is too high.

Also, ICBM missiles require constant maintenance. It is not like you just make an ICBM and then forget it. The real challenges come afterwards; mid-life extension, upgrades, replacements etc...

My friend Chinese started building an economy but only when that had nukes,ICBMs and SLBMs. They relied on these weapons for protection while they made their economy.

China ICBM inventory suggests minimum deterrence doctrine. Here is data from FAS. Also, China can afford to keep and maintain ICBM inventory. You can also see the list of cancelled models. What does that suggests to you?

It would be foolish to think that if America exits Afghanistan this WOT business will end.If America attacks us tomorrow what are we gonna do ??? Throw rocks at them.

Brother, I can understand but we should have thought about this long ago. We should have been prepared long ago. We should have been economically stable, independent, and God-fearing nation by now. But we are not.

Their is a saying: as you sow so shall you reap.

 

[madooxno9]

No I think we need to improve our existing weapons and make sure they 100% deliver the potent stuff @ New Delhi, Bangalore, Mumbai etc.In my opinion, if we have to exercise nuclear option then it must be used as shock and awe strategy and we should launch the nukes at Major Economic and Population centers along with Dam's etc so as to take maximum number lives (Civilian Plus Military).Basically, completely devastate the adversary and take out a significant population of the adversary (Specially, the well educated population which will take decades to reproduce).

LoL someone is smoking some high grade stuff...

sometimes i think .... with so much of load shedding in Pakistan ...is it possible to make ICBM. (just a joke )

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Go for SLBMs & MIRVs

 

[The Deterrent]

Go for SLBMs & MIRVs

That is a better choice...

MIRVs are already under-development for Pakistan's next long range Ballistic missile...

But for the SLBM,no development yet...there is no need for now too...but in 10 yrs it will be needed,coz Indian BMD would have much strengthened by then...