IRIAF | News and Discussions

[SalarHaqq]

Its going to be a lot. So much so that Russia hasn't even updated their 499 or something casualties. Cause it be eye popping to many including the Russian people thinking Ukrainians are welcoming them with open arms everywhere.

There's no evidence for Russia losing this many forces.

Now in response to the rest of the quote and more generally to the dominant mainstream narrative, allow me to paraphrase the explanations of a well-informed analyst with military background:

This war for all practical purposes is over. The Ukrainian army is defeated and completely encircled in different cauldrons, it no longer has any strategic initiative. Its only remaining option now is what the Germans did in 1945, namely to turn every city into a fortress, which at the tactical level is absolutely useless.

Especially since the Ukrainian army is extremely worn out, even the short range offensives over about 40 kilometers used to conduct are no longer within its capabilities. During the few attempts they made as of late, their entire columns were annihilated. Russia is now the only side with strategic initiative, and part of the western elites have understood this.

As for the notion that Moscow was miscalculating Ukrainians will welcome its forces with open arms, those who believe this omnipresent contention need to understand that we're still in the operational phase of the war. To follow up on France's example during WW2 which I evoked above, before De Gaulle could march in Paris, there was a week of military operations inside the city, so naturally residents weren't leaving their homes with flowers to offer to the soldiers.

Moreover, in most of the larger Ukrainian towns, reprisal battalions are still present and they are over-represented. For the past eight years, these have been instigating a reign of terror in the entire south-east of the country, where the majority of Russian-speakers live. Therefore, people are still expectant. Nonetheless, several cities of more than 100.000 inhabitants entirely relied upon the Russians: this is the case of Melitopol, Berdyansk, Kupryansk, etc.

 

[Dexon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504419416431280131

 

[StarmanInSpace]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504419416431280131

Does anyone know which base this is?

 

[Stryker1982]

Does anyone know which base this is?

Mehrabad.

 

[Oldman1]

There's no evidence for Russia losing this many forces.

Now in response to the rest of the quote and more generally to the dominant mainstream narrative, allow me to paraphrase the explanations of a well-informed analyst with military background:

This war for all practical purposes is over. The Ukrainian army is defeated and completely encircled in different cauldrons, it no longer has any strategic initiative. Its only remaining option now is what the Germans did in 1945, namely to turn every city into a fortress, which at the tactical level is absolutely useless.

Especially since the Ukrainian army is extremely worn out, even the short range offensives over about 40 kilometers used to conduct are no longer within its capabilities. During the few attempts they made as of late, their entire columns were annihilated. Russia is now the only side with strategic initiative, and part of the western elites have understood this.

As for the notion that Moscow was miscalculating Ukrainians will welcome its forces with open arms, those who believe this omnipresent contention need to understand that we're still in the operational phase of the war. To follow up on France's example during WW2 which I evoked above, before De Gaulle could march in Paris, there was a week of military operations inside the city, so naturally residents weren't leaving their homes with flowers to offer to the soldiers.

Moreover, in most of the larger Ukrainian towns, reprisal battalions are still present and they are over-represented. For the past eight years, these have been instigating a reign of terror in the entire south-east of the country, where the majority of Russian-speakers live. Therefore, people are still expectant. Nonetheless, several cities of more than 100.000 inhabitants entirely relied upon the Russians: this is the case of Melitopol, Berdyansk, Kupryansk, etc.

There is much evidence them are losing that many troops as well as wounded, enough that Russia can't even advance that far along with logistics problems. Its so bad that the Russian government hasn't updated their casualties since the previous 498 dead only so far. You are pretty delusional if you think the Ukrainian Army is defeated when we are just barely past 3 weeks of war.

 

[SalarHaqq]

There is much evidence them are losing that many troops as well as wounded,

These numbers are based on speculation not actual proof, and the sources performing the speculation aren't neutral.

enough that Russia can't even advance that far along with logistics problems.

Russia hasn't stopped advancing on different fronts. To storm the inner city of Kiev isn't their priority at this time.

that the Russian government hasn't updated their casualties since the previous 498 dead only so far.

This can have many different reasons.

You are pretty delusional if you think the Ukrainian Army is defeated when we are just barely past 3 weeks of war.

The Ukrainian army has lost the strategic initiative and can no longer conduct as much as short range operations over a few dozen kilometers. It's over for them, all they can now try or rather, what the over-represented reprisal units in their midst can try, is to take the urban population hostage and like the Germans in Berlin 1945, prolong the inevitable outcome for some time.

 

[Oldman1]

These numbers are based on speculation not actual proof, and the sources performing the speculation aren't neutral.



Russia hasn't stopped advancing on different fronts. To storm the inner city of Kiev isn't their priority at this time.



This can have many different reasons.



The Ukrainian army has lost the strategic initiative and can no longer conduct as much as short range operations over a few dozen kilometers. It's over for them, all they can now try or rather, what the over-represented reprisal units in their midst can try, is to take the urban population hostage and like the Germans in Berlin 1945, prolong the inevitable outcome for some time.

The Russians have been stopped on multiple fronts and could barely get far, they can't even get to Kiev or even the outer Kiev because its too strong and they don't have the manpower or supplies to make it possible to encircle the city which is too big for that size of the military presented there.

There is no excuse for the Russian government to hide the casualties unless its really bad. Still stuck on the 498.

LOL you think the Ukrainians need to hold their own people hostage to prevent Russian artillery strikes? The Ukrainians are holding the Russians off and are beating them in the long run. You think its inevitable but looking at the situation right now, the Russian Army is done for.

 

[TheImmortal]

A key date could be May 25th. Till then US Treasury allows Russia to use foreign reserves to pay dollar and euro denominated sovereign debt.

Putin May need to wrap up the war by then, if not then there is doubt that the US Treasury extends waiver. Thus leading the way for Russia to default on debt for first time in a century.

The Ukrainians are holding the Russians off and are beating them in the long run. You think its inevitable but looking at the situation right now, the Russian Army is done for.

For Russia to “lose” relies on two things:

A) Can Russia call up reservists?

B) how long (politically) does Putin have?

If the answer is yes they can AND 6-12 months then Russia can easily win this.

If the answer is no and 3 months (or less), then things don’t look ideal entering negotiations.

 

[sha ah]

Yeah Russians are finished. Ukrainians are winning the war. BBC and CNN said so and therefore it must be true. The Ukrainians in this latest airstrike sure look like winners to me.

Photos 18+: Russian Kalibr Missile Hit Ukrainian Military Facility In Mykolaiv. Dozens Of Casualties Reported​

https://southfront.org/photos-18-russian-kalibr-missile-hit-ukrainian-military-facility-in-mykolaiv-dozens-of-casualties-reported/

The Russians have been stopped on multiple fronts and could barely get far, they can't even get to Kiev or even the outer Kiev because its too strong and they don't have the manpower or supplies to make it possible to encircle the city which is too big for that size of the military presented there.

There is no excuse for the Russian government to hide the casualties unless its really bad. Still stuck on the 498.

LOL you think the Ukrainians need to hold their own people hostage to prevent Russian artillery strikes? The Ukrainians are holding the Russians off and are beating them in the long run. You think its inevitable but looking at the situation right now, the Russian Army is done for.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The Russians have been stopped on multiple fronts and could barely get far,

Their operations have not been stopped. Where they paused, it was part of their plans.

they can't even get to Kiev or even the outer Kiev because its too strong and they don't have the manpower or supplies to make it possible to encircle the city which is too big for that size of the military presented there.

As said, Kiev is not the priority target. It is likely scheduled to fall last, and should probably be encircled from the south and southeast after the impending Donbass breakthrough. It was clear from the beginning that the capital will be the most densely defended spot, trying to take it first wouldn't necessarily have been the soundest strategy.

There is no excuse for the Russian government to hide the casualties unless its really bad. Still stuck on the 498.

As said, there can be multiple reasons for how and at what frequency states decide to publish casualty figures. That Russia is seeking to hide represents speculation rather than established fact. Besides, it is possible to dissimulate casualties simply by understating them. So Russia not having announced new figures does not imply it wants to hide anything.

LOL you think the Ukrainians need to hold their own people hostage to prevent Russian artillery strikes?

All kinds of strikes, and to delay inevitable Russian advances. The widespread presence of reprisal units all across eastern Ukraine has amply been documented for the past eight years.

The Ukrainians are holding the Russians off and are beating them in the long run. You think its inevitable but looking at the situation right now, the Russian Army is done for.

The regular Ukrainian army is hopelessly defeated, reprisal units are the only ones that matter now given how they are using urban populations as human shields to slightly slow down the steady and unstoppable Russian progression.

 

[Oldman1]

Yeah Russians are finished. Ukrainians are winning the war. BBC and CNN said so and therefore it must be true. The Ukrainians in this latest airstrike sure look like winners to me.

Photos 18+: Russian Kalibr Missile Hit Ukrainian Military Facility In Mykolaiv. Dozens Of Casualties Reported​

https://southfront.org/photos-18-russian-kalibr-missile-hit-ukrainian-military-facility-in-mykolaiv-dozens-of-casualties-reported/

You think you hit Ukrainian military facility that ends the war? Sorry that doesn't cut it. Losing handful of generals in 3 weeks tells you something when the generals have to do NCOs' job of pushing the troops to fight.

Their operations have not been stopped. Where they paused, it was part of their plans.

Sorry its not part of their plans. Fighting for 3 weeks where you have soldiers abandoning their vehicles is not part of their plans you suppose to end the war in couple of days.

As said, Kiev is not the priority target. It is likely scheduled to fall last, and should probably be encircled from the south and southeast after the impending Donbass breakthrough. It was clear from the beginning that the capital will be the most densely defended spot, trying to take it first wouldn't necessarily have been the soundest strategy.

It is a priority target if they want to remove the Ukrainian government from power. That was their intentions of one of their demands in the first place. They are stuck because they have face stiffed resistance and many bridges have been blown. They tried and failed to get to Kiev because many are getting killed.

As said, there can be multiple reasons for how and at what frequency states decide to publish casualty figures. That Russia is seeking to hide represents speculation rather than established fact. Besides, it is possible to dissimulate casualties simply by understating them. So Russia not having announced new figures does not imply it wants to hide anything.

No they are trying to hide it, its really bad

All kinds of strikes, and to delay inevitable Russian advances. The widespread presence of reprisal units all across eastern Ukraine has amply been documented for the past eight years.

You can just look at whats going on to see the Russians can barely advance now. You look at the map and compare it to a week ago.

The regular Ukrainian army is hopelessly defeated, reprisal units are the only ones that matter now given how they are using urban populations as human shields to slightly slow down the steady and unstoppable Russian progression.

You can keep saying that, but the Russians is pretty much done.

 

[sanel1412]

For god sake IRIAF thread...

 

[OldTwilight]

For god sake IRIAF thread...

well , I opened mutliple tabs , and I thought Im in "Ukraine " thread ..

 

[GrandBotBoi]

The lack of SEAD I've seen from Russia is not very confidence inducing.

I would've wholeheartedly expected the airspace of Kharkiv to be in full control of Russia.

Either I have bad misconceptions about Russia's SEAD/DEAD capability or mobile air defences (Like large amounts of BUK's and KUB's are vastly underestimated). Russia has not been flying a very large amount of sorties it seems.

You won't be able to 100% of the time prevent bombs from falling into your assets, but you can definitely create contested conditions and down aircraft every so often.

SEAD is quite hard when Ukraine has NATO AWACS support, which Russia won't attack

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504419416431280131

What are the coordinates?

 

[TheImmortal]

What are the coordinates?

35°42'52"N 51°17'18"E