Arminkh
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2014
- Messages
- 3,036
- Reaction score
- 15
- Country
- Location
Would you believe 20 years ago if someone told you the days of combustion engine cars are numbered? Do you believe it now?What a load of baloney. Elon is used to seeing drones bomb countries and insurgents that can’t fight back.
How are drones going to defend your airspace when the enemy is jamming radio/gps signals? Or when the enemy shoots down your satellites? What happens when operator loses control of the drone? US lost connection to all its drone during the Al Assad air base attack. They were effectively blind.
If your dependent on something like drones to carry out your defense and counter attack you are screwed during war.
Manned pilots will be here for another 25-30 years at the minimum. So if Iran wants to sit around and build Shahed-129 and think that will do anything during a war with another formidable military then they will be in a major wake up call.
No country in the region could touch Al Assad with their airforce as they had to get through US jet fighters first. However Iran delivered 6 tons of high explosives to that site with precision comparable to manned bombers by pushing a few buttons and all US could do was to watch it unfold. Jet fighters were totally useless in that case.
Soon, enough intelligence can be fit in an AA missile that enables it to see and differentiate between actual target and chaff or decoys and offer more efficiency and kill rate than manned fighters same way Iran's missiles are now comparable or even better than manned bombers.
Elon is talking about "semi-autonomous" drones. Mission and kill decisions are made by a human but rest is carried out by the onboard AI. So loss of communication link will not be that important.
Fighter jets will not disappear overnight but in 10 years they will lose more than 50% of their missions to drones and high precision missiles. That's how disruptive technologies are. You don't see them coming unless you are imaginative enough.
Totally agree. See my reply to immortal aboveI would argue that the technology is already here, however there no implementations as of yet (at least not public ones. US is probably sitting with a darpa/skunk work prototype as we speak).
From an AI and machine learning perspective it is completely possible to have an autonomous ucav fighter/intercepter system. Wether the systems can be jammed or not is absolutely a risk but can be minimized if the implementer is well versed in EW and/or has implemented the system to be completely autonomous.
Furthermore with implementation of quantum communication it will be impossible to jam, intercept or any way disturb the signals.
Manned fighters and interceptors will be obsolete in maximum 15 years and minimum 5 years (if a working prototype exists but not yet showcased). Manned bomber is obsolete!