Iranian Protests

lydian fall · Oct 24, 2022

hussain0216 said:
They are pretty much over and no one seems to care, how many high schools and universities does Iran have and how many protests do you see? Compared to the amount of students?

About 2569 universities and in one of them in middle of Tehran men and women want to be mixed even in dining saloon.

hussain0216 · Oct 24, 2022

Sardar330 said:
About 2569 universities and in one of them in middle of Tehran men and women want to be mixed even in dining saloon.

Exactly even the picture of a bunch of school girls swearing at symbols of the IR,, seem to be the same bunch of girls, doing the same thing over and over again and just the usual suspects utilising twitter to use it as propaganda

I have no doubt Iran needs some reform, a middle path so Iranians are not against Iranians (Pakistan is no different)

But this propagandiseing by monarchists, and murtads and ethnic separatists won't do anything

lydian fall · Oct 24, 2022

hussain0216 said:
Exactly even the picture of a bunch of school girls swearing at symbols of the IR,, seem to be the same bunch of girls, doing the same thing over and over again and just the usual suspects utilising twitter to use it as propaganda

Yes they're the same people

I have no doubt Iran needs some reform, a middle path so Iranians are not against Iranians (Pakistan is no different)

But this propagandiseing by monarchists, and murtads and ethnic separatists won't do anything

I hope best wishes for Iran and Pakistan

TruthSeeker · Oct 26, 2022

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 25

Oct 25, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 25, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.
Protest activity will likely increase—possibly significantly—on October 26 to commemorate the 40th day since the regime killed Mahsa Amini. Protest organizations such as the neighborhood youth groups have continued to call for countrywide demonstrations on October 26.[1] Many protest organizations continue to use revolutionary rhetoric in describing the planned demonstrations.[2] Iranians commonly hold a commemoration on the 40th day after a death. Anti-regime protests similarly erupted 40 days after security forces killed Neda Agha Soltan—a young Iranian protester—during the Green Movement in 2009.[3] Security forces killed Agha Soltan on June 20, 2009, and the commemoration was on July 30, 2009.[4]
The regime has likely prepared to preempt and crush the planned protests on October 26, especially given their potential to strengthen the protest movement. The regime will likely disrupt internet services and telecommunications in the early morning throughout Iran to stymie protester coordination and organization. The regime will also likely deploy security forces ostentatiously throughout major cities to deter and intimidate demonstrators and use force if the protests gain traction.
Protesters may coordinate further demonstrations against the Islamic Republic for the 40-day commemorations of other secular martyrs, such as Nika Shakarami and Sarina Esmail Zadeh, in this protest movement.[5] Forty days after Shakarami disappeared is October 30, and 40 days after Esmail Zadeh died is November 2.
Key Takeaways

Protest activity will likely increase—possibly significantly—on October 26 to commemorate the 40th day since the regime killed Mahsa Amini.
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 13 cities in 11 provinces.
University students heckled a senior Raisi administration official attempting to engage student protesters for the second consecutive day.
The IRGC announced that unidentified militants killed one IRGC member and one Basij member in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 13 cities in 11 provinces on October 25. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province (Several dozen Karaj Technical and Vocational Girls’ University students protested on campus and chanted “students are in prison, our professors are suffering”)[6]
Ardabil City, Ardabil Province (A dozen Ardabil University of Medical Sciences students chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom” in the university cafeteria)[7]
Shahr-e Kord, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province (50-100 Shahr-e Kord University students protested on campus)[8]
Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (100-200 Azad University of Esfahan students protested on campus and chanted “Sanandaj and Zahedan [are] the eye and lamp of Iran”)[9]
Rasht, Gilan Province (Several dozen high school students protested and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom” in Rasht streets)[10]
Hamedan, Hamedan Province (Several dozen Bou Ali Sina University and Hamedan University of Medical Sciences students protested on campus; security forces reportedly beat Bou Ali Sina University students who removed their headscarves)[11]
Kerman City, Kerman Province (Several dozen Azad University of Kerman students protested on campus and chanted “neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran”)[12]
Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (Mashhad firefighters protested against low pay in Mashhad streets; 50-100 Mashhad University students protested on campus and chanted “it’s not the only day, it’s going to be every day)[13]
Qom City, Qom Province (Qom University students heckled a regime spokesperson speaking on campus and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom”; plainclothed security forces reportedly clashed with protesters)[14]
Tehran City, Tehran Province (50-100 Azad University of Tehran students protested in Tehran streets; a dozen Allameh University students protested on campus; several dozen Soroor University students protested on campus; 50-100 Markaz University students chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom” on campus)[15]
Qods, Tehran Province (50-100 Azad University of Qods students protested on campus and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom”)[16]
Yazd City, Yazd Province (100-200 Yazd University students protested gender segregation and chanted “woman, life, freedom” in the campus cafeteria)[17]

CTP assess with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi Province (Undetermined number of Hakim Sabzevari University students protesting on campus)[18]

University students heckled a senior Raisi administration official attempting to engage student protesters for the second consecutive day. Khajeh Nasir Tousi University of Technology students chanted anti-regime slogans while Raisi Administration Spokesperson Ali Bahadori Jahromi attempted to deliver a speech on October 24.[19] Qom University students heckled Jahromi while he attempted to deliver a similar speech on October 25.[20]
The IRGC announced that unidentified militants killed one IRGC member and one Basij member in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on October 25.[21] It is unclear whether protesters or anti-regime insurgents killed the security officers.
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
IRGC Telegram channels reported anti-government protests in Baku calling for regime change and improved human rights in Azerbaijan on October 25.[22] CTP cannot verify these reports. Local Azerbaijani media reported that the Azerbaijani Popular Front Party (AXCP) organized protests in Baku on October 24 and 25.[23]
Tensions have increased between Iran and Azerbaijan in recent weeks over the latter allegedly hosting Israeli agents and trying to establish a land corridor connecting Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan autonomous enclave.[24] An IRGC Telegram account called for the regime to economically and militarily support separatist movements in the Nakhchivan republic to join Iran on October 23.[25]
An IRGC Telegram channel advertised a new VPN service on October 25 likely to identify and monitor individuals seeking to circumvent regime internet restrictions.[26]

[1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584861495287873538

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584823046644584449

[2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584861495287873538

Protest Map - 25 OCT.png

Parsipride · Oct 26, 2022

So much for the fabricated cause of death of Mahsa that the regime tries to peddle.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585005598701076480

The videos online are overwhelming. This regime has lost the respect of the people and specially the young. The kids and youth are moving in a digital age where information and new cycles move so fast . The regime is stuck in an analog age. They need to realize that this is not the 7th century and if they want to survive, they must change and listen to the demands of the younger generations. A woman's modesty and her moral compass is what she believes. It is not some repressive dictate on how to dress. If she wants to spread her legs, it is hers to give and no one's business.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584856025466896384

People of Iran need to get arms and settle the score . Killing mothers in front of their children.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585073600088133633

sammuel · Oct 26, 2022

- Armed men attacked a Shi'ite Muslim shrine in the Iranian city of Shiraz on Wednesday, killing at least 15 people, state news agency IRNA said, as security forces clashed with protesters marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini in custody.

IRNA described the attackers as "takfiri terrorists", a label used by officials in predominantly Shi'ite Muslim Iran to refer to hardline, armed Sunni Islamist groups.

Islamic State claims Iran shrine attack, Iran vows response

An attack on a Shi'ite shrine that killed 15 people escalates tensions amid a wave of protests after the death of Mahsa Amini.

www.reuters.com

Hack-Hook · Oct 26, 2022

sammuel said:
- Armed men attacked a Shi'ite Muslim shrine in the Iranian city of Shiraz on Wednesday, killing at least 15 people, state news agency IRNA said, as security forces clashed with protesters marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini in custody.

IRNA described the attackers as "takfiri terrorists", a label used by officials in predominantly Shi'ite Muslim Iran to refer to hardline, armed Sunni Islamist groups.

Islamic State claims Iran shrine attack, Iran vows response

An attack on a Shi'ite shrine that killed 15 people escalates tensions amid a wave of protests after the death of Mahsa Amini.

www.reuters.com

well two get arrested , and the others will be arrested two , the third one also will be arrested . want to see if the ones who organized it ever dare to show their faces ever again.
by the way wonder which target will be bombed with missile in response to it.

Parsipride · Oct 27, 2022

sammuel said:
- Armed men attacked a Shi'ite Muslim shrine in the Iranian city of Shiraz on Wednesday, killing at least 15 people, state news agency IRNA said, as security forces clashed with protesters marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini in custody.

IRNA described the attackers as "takfiri terrorists", a label used by officials in predominantly Shi'ite Muslim Iran to refer to hardline, armed Sunni Islamist groups.

Islamic State claims Iran shrine attack, Iran vows response

An attack on a Shi'ite shrine that killed 15 people escalates tensions amid a wave of protests after the death of Mahsa Amini.

www.reuters.com

Zionist child murderers sent the illiterate Wahabi Arabs to kill innocent people. Signature move except Iran is not Syria. Your payback will come as soon as the mullas are done. Explain why all the perversion, chemical child castrations, unborn child killing cults, mass murder of world population under the cover of Vaccines always has a member of your tribe behind it ?

sammuel · Oct 27, 2022

Parsipride said:
I can say for a fact the Zionist child murderers sent the illiterate Wahabi Arabs to kill innocent people. Signature move except, Iran is not Syria. Your payback will come as soon as the mullas are done.

kindly solve your own mess.

PDF · Oct 27, 2022

Currently Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, all three countries are in a mess. Wonder who gains most from the instability. And, are three neighboring countries in turmoil at same time; coincidence?

sammuel · Oct 28, 2022

Hack-Hook said:
well two get arrested , and the others will be arrested two , the third one also will be arrested . want to see if the ones who organized it ever dare to show their faces ever again.
by the way wonder which target will be bombed with missile in response to it.

Terror attacks , such as spraying praying people with bullets ,not caring who you kill , are to be condemned. No cause can justify something like that.

But the numbers are small , compared to the numbers that died in the protests :

Iran protest crackdown sees nearly 250 dead, 12,500 detained:

Iran protests sees nearly 250 dead, 12,500 detained: report

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a human rights website, has claimed that 244 people have been killed in crackdowns on protests in Iran over the past month.

english.alaraby.co.uk

~

raptor22 · Oct 28, 2022

sammuel said:
Terror attacks , such as spraying praying people with bullets ,not caring who you kill , are to be condemned. No cause can justify something like that.

But the numbers are small , compared to the numbers that died in the protests :

Iran protest crackdown sees nearly 250 dead, 12,500 detained:

Iran protests sees nearly 250 dead, 12,500 detained: report

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a human rights website, has claimed that 244 people have been killed in crackdowns on protests in Iran over the past month.

english.alaraby.co.uk

~

Well so far isreal and the US have burnt their terror networks within Iran just to prolong the unrest and nothing got in return so in such a moment they need to radicalize it.
They have used all they have in their possession to fan the unrest through their own news networks so maybe could hurt more.
We know that there has been a pre plan for unrest in Iran that neither has been successful nor popular:

IR has got many issues like many other countries but what we see right now is not usual.
Just God help those regimes that have been involved in it.

sammuel · Oct 28, 2022

raptor22 said:
Well so far isreal and the US have burnt their terror networks within Iran just to prolong the unrest and nothing got in return so in such a moment they need to radicalize it.
They have used all they have in their possession to fan the unrest through their own news networks so maybe could hurt more.
We know that there has been a pre plan for unrest in Iran that neither has been successful nor popular:
View attachment 889936 View attachment 889937

IR has got many issues like many other countries but what we see right now is not usual.
Just God help those regimes that have been involved in it.

People protest cause they don't want to be forced to wear hijab , no need to invent some secrett conspiracy plot from abroad.

raptor22 · Oct 28, 2022

sammuel said:
People protest cause they don't want to be forced to wear hijab , no need to invent some secrett conspiracy plot from abroad.

People have right to protests no doubt in that and for sure IR must listen to them but the US and its alliances ain't after Iranian people right , as I posted max number that protested combined ain't more than 100k and others are just trying to exploit it ... inhuman max pressure policy for the past 4 years has made it clear who cares about Iranian people, who is civilized and who is violator of the law.
Plot to blow up a civil industry complex through Komole terrorists trained by Mosad, or planning to make pile of death people in Evin , or terrorist attack in Zahedan or what we witnessed in Shiraz are dots that connected all together with western Saudis news network so it ain't secrett conspiracy plot from abroad when you know judge passed a nearly $1 billion verdict against Alex Jones just for misinformation, Russia was bad for interfering in the US internal affairs but American doing it is fine ...
It's been a long time that no one would believe those whom host MEK, Komole and other terrorists ...

TruthSeeker · Oct 28, 2022

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 26

Oct 26, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, Brian Carter, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 26, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.
The ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. These protests are the most reported in a single day since CTP began publishing daily protest updates on September 28.[1] Thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the 40th day since the regime killed Mahsa Amini.[2] Protesters shot and killed an IRGC intelligence officer in Maleyer, Hamedan Province, raising the death toll of security forces members to at least 33 since this protest wave began on September 16.[3]
The largest gathering occurred in Saghez, Kurdistan Province—Mahsa Amini’s hometown and resting place. Iranian state media reported that around 10,000 individuals gathered in Saghez to commemorate Mahsa Amini, although the actual number could be higher.[4] The regime blocked roads around Saghez to prevent protests.[5] Videos on social media depict mourners and protesters traveling on foot to the cemetery in Saghez, walking along roads and through fields.[6] Security forces attacked and arrested protesters at the cemetery. [7]
Protest organizations have called on disaffected citizens to sustain this large-scale turnout daily.[8] Some protest organizations have called for demonstrators to commemorate on October 27 the 40th day since Nika Shakarami died.[9] These protest organizations have also noted that Cyrus the Great Day is October 29—another date around which protesters could rally.[10] The regime has long sought to incorporate historical Persian nationalism into its ideology, and protest calls such as this one are part of an effort to reclaim pride in Persian history for the anti-regime movement.
The regime will likely exploit a militant attack on a Shia shrine in Shiraz, Fars Province to deflate the protests. At least one gunman entered the Shah Cheragh Mosque in Shiraz and shot worshippers on October 26, killing around 15 and injuring around 40, according to Iranian state media.[11] The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack although it is very unlikely that the Islamic State was directly involved in it.[12]
The regime will use this attack to redirect Iranian public attention away from the protests and channel anger toward foreign adversaries such as the Islamic State and Saudi Arabia. Outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) reported that the gunman was a non-Iranian Wahhabist.[13] An IRGC-affiliated journalist claimed that Saudi Arabia ordered the attack and called on the IRGC to retaliate.[14] The regime may attack Islamic State positions abroad or Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the militant attack in Shiraz. The regime conducted ballistic missile attacks against Islamic State targets in eastern Syria after the group claimed responsibility for attacks in Iran in June 2017 and September 2018.[15] The regime could do so again to draw public attention away from the protests. The regime also seeks to retaliate against Saudi Arabia for its alleged role in stoking the protests as CTP previously reported.[16]
The regime may also use this attack to justify more violent protest suppression. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused protesters of enabling anti-regime militants to conduct the attack.[17]
The Islamic State is trying to capitalize on the shrine attack and protests to stoke instability and sectarian conflict in Iran. The Islamic State likely claimed responsibility for the attack opportunistically without having ordered or directly enabled it.[18] The attack does not match the typical Islamic State attack pattern, suggesting that the group may not have explicitly directed the attack. The attacker was not wearing a suicide vest and was captured wounded but alive--a very unusual occurrence for Islamic State terrorists. Islamic State statements claiming credit for the attack were also confused, offered no details other than those already available in the media when they were released and lacked the specificity that is common in claims of credit for attacks that the Islamic State actually directs. The Islamic State has previously claimed attacks opportunistically such as the Las Vegas shooting in October 2017.[19] The Islamic State Khorasan Province expressed support for protesters fighting the regime on October 26 as well likely to further stoke sectarian divides.[20] The effort to fuel sectarian violence has been a hallmark of the Islamic State and its predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, distinguishing it from al Qaeda affiliates that are usually more reluctant to stoke sectarian hostilities directly.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated that Russia may be advising the Iranian regime’s protest crackdown on October 26.[21] Moscow has extensive experience in protest crackdowns domestically and abroad. The Kremlin advised and supported the suppression of protests in Belarus in late 2020 and Kazakhstan in early 2022.[22] Russian security personnel participated directly in both of those crackdowns, but CTP has not yet observed indications that Russians are in Iran actively helping the regime crack down at the moment.
Key Takeaways

The ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces.
The regime will likely exploit a militant attack on a Shia shrine in Shiraz, Fars Province to contain the protests.
The Islamic State is trying to capitalize on the shrine attack and protests to stoke instability and sectarian conflict in Iran.
US officials stated that Russia may be advising the Iranian regime’s protest crackdown.
IRGC-affiliated media continued to spread disinformation to downplay protests and discredit frustrated citizens

Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces on October 26. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province (50-100 Karaj Azad University students protested on campus; undetermined number of protesters set fire to a statue of General Soleimani)[23]
Ardabil City, Ardabil Province (100-200 Mohaghegh Ardabil University students protested on campus)[24]
Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (100-150 University of Tabriz students protested on campus)[25]
Shahinshahr, Esfahan Province (Security forces reportedly fired tear gas at protesters gathered outside Fars Medical Clinic; several dozen protesters set fires and protested in Shahinshahr streets)[26]
Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (100-150 female Isfahan University students protested on campus; several dozen protesters gathered in Esfahan streets)[27]
Najafabad, Esfahan Province (150-300 Najafabad University students protested on campus and stomped on pictures of Khamenei)[28]
Shiraz, Fars Province (150-300 Shiraz Azad University students protested on campus)[29]
Rasht, Gilan Province (100-200 Gilan University students protested on campus and chanted “neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran”; protesters set fires in Rasht streets and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom”)[30]
Lahijan, Gilan Province (Several dozen protesters set fires and demonstrated in Lahijan streets; protesters reportedly ambushed security forces and set fire to their motorcycle)[31]
Gorgan, Golestan Province (One or two dozen protesters demonstrated in Gorgan streets; protesters set fire to a Basij base)[32]
Hamedan, Hamedan Province (150-300 Islamic Azad University of Hamedan and Boali Sina University students protested on their respective campuses)[33]
Ilam City, Ilam Province (50-100 protesters demonstrated in Ilam streets and chanted “Death to the dictator” and “woman, life, freedom”; security forces reportedly used tear gas against protesters inside a pharmacy)[34]
Kerman City, Kerman Province (50-150 Bahnar University of Kerman and Islamic Azad University of Kerman students protested on campus and chanted “students die, do not accept humiliation”)[35]
Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (Several dozen Ferdowsi University of Mashhad students protested on campus; Underdetermined number of protesters marched through Mashhad streets)[36]
Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi Province (150-300 Hakim University and Sabzevar University students protested on their respective campuses; Sabzevar University students chanted “1500 people killed in our Bloody November”)[37]
Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province (50-100 Islamic Azad University of Ahvaz and Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz students protested on campus)[38]
Saghez, Kurdistan Province (10,000 protesters or more traveled from multiple cities in Iran to attend Mahsa Amini’s funeral at the Aichi Mausoleum)[39]
Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (50-100 Kurdistan University in Sanandaj students protested on campus; several dozen protesters set fires in the Sanandaj streets and threw Molotov cocktails at security forces; security forces reportedly used live ammunition against protesters)[40]
Marivan, Kurdistan Province (Undetermined number of protesters set fires in Marivan streets; security forces reportedly used live ammunition against protesters)[41]
Boroujerd, Lorestan Province (Several dozen Boroujerd University students protested on campus and chanted “death to the dictator”)[42]
Arak, Markazi Province (50-100 Arak University students protested on campus and marched through Arak streets)[43]
Babol, Mazandaran Province (Several dozen Noshirvani University of Babol protested on campus; security forces reportedly prevented students from exiting or entering the university)[44]
Qazvin City, Qazvin Province (50-100 Qazvin University students protested in the Qazvin streets; security forces used live ammunition against protesters)[45]
Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province (Several dozen Zahedan University of Medical Sciences students protested on campus and chanted “death to the dictator”; security forces prevented students from exiting or entering the university and reportedly stormed the women’s dormitory to stifle protests)[46]
Shahriar, Tehran Province (Several dozen protesters chanted “death to the dictator” in Shahriar streets; security forces reportedly employed tear gas against protesters)[47]
Tehran City, Tehran Province (An undetermined number of students and faculty protested at Tehran Technical College; 50-100 university students protest at Khajeh Nasir University; an undetermined number of students gathered at Tehran Azad Dental Facility; security forces reportedly attacked about a dozen protesters in Amirabad; 150-300 protesters held a sit in at Beheshti University of Medical Sciences; 50-100 protesters gathered on Abuzar street and were seen burning objects; 50-100 protesters were seen gathering in Tehran’s metro)[48]
Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province (Security forces reportedly clashed with high school students in Boukan streets; one or two dozen protesters set fires in Boukan streets)[49]
Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province (Several dozen protesters chanting “woman, life, freedom” and lighting fires in Mahadbad streets)[50]
Ourmia, West Azerbaijan Province (One or two dozen protesters attacked a security officer and set a fire to a banner depicting Khamenei in Ourmia streets; undetermined number of protesters chant “Azerbaijan is awake, Azerbaijan supports Kurdistan”)[51]
Yazd City, Yazd Province (50-100 Islamic Azad University of Yazd and Yazd University students protested on their respective campuses)[52]

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Yasouj, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province (At least 50 protesters protested outside Yasouj University chanting “woman, life, liberty”)[53]
Ravansar, Kermanshah Province (Undetermined number of protesters set a fire in Ravansar streets)[54]
Qods, Tehran Province (Undetermined number of Islamic Azad University of Qods City students protested and chanted “death to the oppressor, be it the Shah or Khamenei”)[55]

Iranian social media users documented anti-regime strikes among merchants and industrial workers in 10 cities in six provinces on October 26, including:[56]

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
Rasht, Gilan Province
Lahijan, Gilan Province
Javanroud, Kermanshah Province
Saghez, Kurdistan Province
Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
Marivan, Kurdistan Province
Tehran City, Tehran Province
Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province
Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province

IRGC-affiliated media continued to spread disinformation to downplay protests and discredit frustrated citizens on October 26. IRGC-affiliated media dismissed reports that security forces attacked protesters and denied that the regime blocked roads around Saghez.[57] IRGC-affiliated media also denied that Mahsa Amini’s family planned to commemorate the 40th day since her death.[58] IRGC Telegram accounts reported that Nika Shakarami committed suicide to obfuscate the fact that security forces killed her in Tehran around September 20.[59]
The Artesh Ground Forces plan to conduct an electronic warfare (EW) exercise around Esfahan on October 27.[60] Iranian state media reported that the Artesh Ground Forces will practice offensive and defensive EW operations. The regime could use these exercises to disrupt electronic and satellite communications systems to further limit the free flow of information within and out of Iran.
Senior Iranian Sunni cleric Maulvi Abdol Hamid reiterated his support for the protesters in a private meeting with his inner circle on October 24, according to Reuters.[61] Abdol Hamid also called for the regime to recognize the rights of Iranian Baloch and Sunnis. CTP previously assessed that Abdol Hamid may emerge as a local protest leader in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[62] Hamid has criticized Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the regime crackdown in recent days.[63] Iranian security officials have accused Abdol Hamid of instigating protests in Zahedan.[64]
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
There was nothing significant to report today.

[1] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-updates
[2] www.isna dot ir/news/1401080402843
[3] http://www.irna dot ir/news/84924522;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585359267892457472

[4] www.isna dot ir/news/1401080402843
[5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585157172979122176

[6]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585189523238969344

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585157172979122176

[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-security-forces-shoot-...
[8]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585326099302477825

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585349189122170881

Protest Map - 26 OCT - 1700.png

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 27

Oct 27, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanna Moore, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan with LJ Trevette
October 27, 8:00 PM ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.
Protesters are establishing routines for when they protest and how they prepare. Protesters have established a routine of demonstrating on Wednesdays and Saturdays.[1] CTP has consistently documented increased protest activity on these days in recent weeks.[2] Some Iranians have established routines of barricading streets ahead of protests.[3] University students are increasingly engaging in regular and sustained acts of defiance such as boycotting gender segregation in educational facilities, especially on days when there are few other protests across Iran.[4] These sustained protest patterns are facilitating coordination and pose an enduring threat to the regime and its security forces.
Iran may attack US, Israeli, or Saudi interests and targets in retaliation for the Shiraz attack. Senior Iranian political and security leaders blamed the Shiraz attack on Iran’s enemies, specifically the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and vowed to retaliate on October 27. These officials include Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Hossein Salami, among others.[5] Khamenei’s senior military adviser, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, framed the attack and protests as part of the US-Israeli-Saudi effort to destabilize the Islamic Republic.[6]
Bagheri and Raisi argued that the protests enabled the Shiraz attack, indicating that the regime may intensify its crackdown.[7] This rhetoric matches the statements from Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on October 26, as CTP previously reported.[8]
IRGC-affiliated media suggested that the individual who attacked the Shiraz shrine was Afghan, building on the narrative that the attacker was an Islamic State member. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported that the attacker was 23-year-old Hamid Badakhshan on October 27.[9] The last name implies that he was from Badakhshan Province in Afghanistan, although the name could be an adopted pseudonym. It is unclear whether this reporting is accurate. The Islamic State Khorasan Province—the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan—expressed support for the protesters on October 26.[10]
Protest activity will likely increase in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on October 28, marking four weeks since the regime’s brutal crackdown there on September 30.[11] Large crowds are already reportedly gathering around the Makki Grand Mosque in Zahedan in anticipation of planned protests on October 28.[12]
Senior Iranian Sunni cleric Maulvi Abdol Hamid and other local clerics may play an increasingly prominent role in leading protests in Zahedan. Abdol Hamid and regime officials have rhetorically clashed in recent days over the regime’s brutal protest crackdown in Zahedan, as CTP previously reported.[13] Another Iranian Sunni cleric in Zahedan, Abdol Ghaffar Naghshbandi, called on other Sunni clerics to clarify their stance on the protests on October 27.[14]
The regime is likely deploying security forces to Zahedan to preempt the protests and prepare to crack down. Social media accounts reported that anti-riot and military forces deployed in Zahedan on October 27.[15] Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported that some of these security forces transferred to Zahedan from neighboring Kerman Province.[16] The regime shuffles its elite security forces around the country to where they are needed most during mass unrest.[17]
The Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Security Council fired the Law Enforcement Command’s Zahedan commander and 16 of his subordinates on October 27.[18] Iranian regime-affiliated media described the dismissal as the culmination of an investigation into Iranian security forces’ brutal suppression of September 30 protests in Zahedan.[19] One Iranian outlet acknowledged that clashes between provincial LEC officers and armed gunmen resulted in the casualties and deaths of several bystanders, including worshippers at a local mosque, citing official legal documents.[20]
Key Takeaways

Protesters are increasingly establishing routines for when they protest and how they prepare.
Iran may attack US, Israeli, or Saudi interests and targets in retaliation for the Shiraz attack.
Senior Iranian leaders argued that the protests enabled the Shiraz attack, indicating that the regime may intensify its crackdown.
IRGC-affiliated media suggested that the individual who attacked the Shiraz shrine was Afghan, building on the narrative that the attacker was an Islamic State member.
Protest activity will likely increase in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on October 28, marking four weeks since the regime’s brutal crackdown there on September 30.
The Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Security Council fired the Law Enforcement Command’s Zahedan commander and 16 of his subordinates.
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 23 cities in 12 provinces.
At least 100 mourners and protesters gathered in Veysian, Lorestan Province to commemorate the 40th day since the regime killed Nika Shakarami.
Thirty-six security forces members have been killed in the ongoing protests as of October 27.
The Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council called for countrywide, pro-regime protests on October 28 to condemn the US and Israel for their alleged roles in stoking the protests.

Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 23 cities in 12 provinces on October 27. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province (Roughly 75 to 100 Gohardasht Azad University students participated in protests, chanting “students will die before we accept humiliation)[21]
Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (Undetermined number of protesters participated in evening anti-regime demonstrations. Roughly 100 Mashhad Al Zahra University students participated in anti-regime demonstrations in the vicinity of the university campus)[22]
Ahvaz, Khuzestan (Ahvaz Azad University students chanting anti-regime slogans. Roughly 75 protesters on the street)[23]
Baneh, Kurdistan Province (Footage shows dozens of protesters clashing with regime security personnel, although this number is likely higher. Two protesters reportedly killed)[24]
Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province (Undetermined number of protesters clashed with security personnel while protesting on the street. Roughly hundreds of people attended the forty-day commemoration ceremony of the death of Reza Lofti, whom Iranian security personnel reportedly killed for participating in anti-regime demonstrations)[25]
Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province (Roughly 50 people attending 40-day commemoration of Fuad Ghadimi's death, chanting anti-regime slogans)[26]
Saghez, Kurdistan Province (undetermined number of protesters chanting “death to Khamenei.” Audible sounds of gunfire)[27]
Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (Undetermined number of protesters participating in demonstrations. Shots reportedly fired at protests)[28]
Borujerd, Lorestan Province (Over 100 protesters demonstrated on streets and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom”)[29]
Khorramabad, Lorestan Province (Over a hundred protesters attended the forty-day commemoration ceremony of Nika Shakarami’s death near Khorramabad, whom Iranian security personnel killed for participating in anti-regime demonstrations. Protesters chanted anti-regime slogans such as “we are all Nika, we are ready to fight” and “this is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown.” The exact date of Nika’s death remains uncertain)[30]
Arak, Markazi (Undetermined number of protesters chanting “death to the dictator”)[31]
Tehran City, Tehran Province (Over 100 Tehran West Azad University Students protested and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom.” Over 100 protesters participated in demonstrations in the vicinity of the Chitgar neighborhood)[32]
Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province (Undetermined number of protesters demonstrating on the street, chanting “Woman, Life, Freedom” in Kurdish)[33]
Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province (Hundreds of protesters chanted anti-regime slogans and damaged government facilities, including an IRGC-affiliated bank. Security personnel reportedly shot and killed a woman in clashes with protesters. Protests reportedly commenced at the burial of a protester killed by Iranian security personnel, where crowds sang Kurdish songs)[34]
Miandoab, West Azerbaijan Province (Undetermined number of protesters chanting anti-regime slogans on city street)[35]

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (Undetermined number of protesters, unclear if footage is from tonight)[36]
Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province (No footage of protests, but reports of violence against protesters)[37]
Lahijan, Gilan Province (No footage of violence, but sounds of gunfire in existing footage)[38]
Rasht, Gilan Province (Undetermined number of protesters chanting “death to Khamenei.” Audible gunshot in footage)[39]
Malayer, Hamedan Province (Footage shows over 100 university students chanting anti-reigme slogans, although it is unclear when these protests occurred). [40]
Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province (Footage shows beginning of protests and blockades imposed by protesters, but does not show protests occurring)[41]
Marivan, Kurdistan Province (Footage shows beginning of protests and blockades imposed by protesters, but does not show protests occurring)[42]
Shahriar, Tehran Province (Undetermined number of protesters chanting anti-regime slogans on city streets).[43]

At least 100 mourners and protesters gathered in Veysian, Lorestan Province to commemorate the 40th day since the regime killed Nika Shakarami on October 27.[44] Security forces blocked roads leading to the cemetery where Shakarami is buried and shot bullets and tear gas at protesters.[45]
Thirty-six security forces members have been killed in the ongoing protests as of October 27. Protesters killed an IRGC member in Tehran on October 26.[46] Iranian media reported that protesters killed him with a hand grenade, although it is unclear whether they used a homemade explosive or an actual grenade. Protesters also shot and killed two Basij members in Amol, Mazandaran Province on October 27.[47]
A cousin of Mahsa Amini told Al Arabiya on October 27 that the regime has placed some of her family under house arrest.[48]
The Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council called for countrywide, pro-regime protests on October 28 to condemn the US and Israel for their alleged roles in stoking the protests.[49] The council is responsible for overseeing and coordinating various media and socio-cultural initiatives across the regime. The supreme leader appoints the council chairman.
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
IRGC and proxy media continue to push regime narratives attempting to turn attention and popular support away from protesters. These channels claimed that foreign-backed protests prevented Iranian security forces from stopping the Shiraz attack.[50] IRGC media pushed a likely fake statement from the Islamic State claiming that the group attacked Shiraz in solidarity with protesters to negatively associate ongoing protests with violent attacks on civilians.[51]

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