Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[jauk]

Rationale tweeted on why Iran's doctrine will NOT include actual weapons production: During the Imposed War, Iranian commanders were prohibited for quite a while using missiles even as the Ba'athists were raining down missiles on Iranian cities.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555132493887578113

 

[Hack-Hook]

Analysis on the feasibility to destroy underground facilities:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554845720569647113

that analysis made some assumption that is really hard to come into reality in real life.
1- they assumed the mountain is uniform . a layer of sand can turn all the calculation wrong.
2- they assumed centrifuge are in direct contact with the mountain while in reality its not the case

 

[drmeson]

Fatwa Akhoonds will go to any length lol

 

[jauk]

that analysis made some assumption that is really hard to come into reality in real life.
1- they assumed the mountain is uniform . a layer of sand can turn all the calculation wrong.
2- they assumed centrifuge are in direct contact with the mountain while in reality its not the case

At the end two opposing items are true:

1. Iran believes the facilities are protected beyond doubt
2. Opponents are trying hard to find how to destroy these and are disregarding 1.

 

[aryobarzan]

Question to all:

If Iran is now a "Nuclear capable"state then should we still be worried about what conventional weapons we should have...Would anyone in the neighbourhood in the right mind dare to touch us....We just have to have better delivery systems (ICBMs)..and higher generation of the nuclear bombs...

Use Iran's conventional weapons development mostly for export..ok we need some guns for Taliban..lol

 

[Hack-Hook]

Question to all:

If Iran is now a "Nuclear capable"state then should we still be worried about what conventional weapons we should have...Would anyone in the neighbourhood in the right mind dare to touch us....We just have to have better delivery systems (ICBMs)..and higher generation of the nuclear bombs...

Use Iran's conventional weapons development mostly for export..ok we need some guns for Taliban..lol

do you want be like some country which could not finish a special military operation in designated time ?

 

[aryobarzan]

do you want be like some country which could not finish a special military operation in designated time ?

lol..I knew you will say that..well I guess if Iran is not planning to invade anyone or conduct special operations then my question still remains... why a nuclear armed (capable) country that has no plans to invade anyone needs too large a conventional military.??

 

[Hack-Hook]

lol..I knew you will say that..well I guess if Iran is not planning to invade anyone or conduct special operations then my question still remains... why a nuclear armed (capable) country that has no plans to invade anyone needs too large a conventional military.??

because you must be prepared for worse and hope for best

 

[QWECXZ]

Question to all:

If Iran is now a "Nuclear capable"state then should we still be worried about what conventional weapons we should have...Would anyone in the neighbourhood in the right mind dare to touch us....We just have to have better delivery systems (ICBMs)..and higher generation of the nuclear bombs...

Use Iran's conventional weapons development mostly for export..ok we need some guns for Taliban..lol

Define nuclear capable.
For a country like Iran that does not have vast uranium resources or allies with large reserves of uranium, Iran needs a very large and advanced nuclear program to defend itself against a potential all-out war with countries like the United States, France or even Israel.
As the shadow of World War III starts to form by recent events in Ukraine and Taiwan, countries like Iran should feel even more than usual threatened because Iran will definitely be one of the main players in the upcoming world war and will be one of the main targets by the West.

Having 5-10 nuclear bombs below 100 kilotons is not going to give Iran any reasonable deterrence. However, as I have mentioned previously many times, I highly doubt that Iran has nuclear weapons. And even if we assume that Iran does have nuclear weapons, probably purchased from Kazakhstan or North Korea, Iran still needs an active program to maintain and upgrade them for future. Iran also needs fusion bombs.

At this moment, Iran is far from a nuclear state. There's no such thing as a "nuclear capable" state. You are either a nuclear state or you're not. When shit hits the fan, you won't have time for establishing nuclear deterrence. There'll always be a reasonable chance that they will nuke your main cities before you can prepare to respond. Saying that I have stockpiled enough uranium for a few small fission bombs is not going to scare anyone, particularly when our enemies already have hundreds of them in the range of hundreds of kilotons.

Let's not forget that when the US decided to develop first nuclear weapons, Nazi Germany was already working on nuclear weapons and even some nuclear secrets were being delivered to Japan. So, when things get serious and push comes to shove, even days matter.

 

[aryobarzan]

Define nuclear capable.
For a country like Iran that does not have vast uranium resources, Iran needs a very large and advanced nuclear program to defend itself against a potential all-out war with countries like the United States.
As the shadow of World War III starts to form, countries like Iran should feel even more than usual threatened because Iran will definitely be one of the main players in the upcoming world war and will be one of the main targets by the West.

Having 5-10 nuclear bombs below 100 kilotons is not going to give Iran any reasonable deterrence. However, as I have mentioned previously many times, I highly doubt that Iran has nuclear weapons. And even if we assume that Iran does have nuclear weapons, probably purchased from Kazakhstan, Iran needs an active program to maintain and upgrade them for future.

At this moment, Iran is far from a nuclear state. There's no such thing as a "nuclear capable" state. You are either a nuclear state or you're not. When shit hits the fan, you won't have time for establishing nuclear deterrence. There'll always be a reasonable chance that they will nuke your main cities before you can prepare to respond. Saying that I have stockpiled enough uranium for a few small fission bombs is not going to scare anyone, particularly when our enemies already have hundreds of them in the range of hundreds of kilotons.

Well as I said in my question "We just have to have better delivery systems (ICBMs)..and higher generation of the nuclear bombs"... so I am in full agreement that we should work on our Nuclear and ICBM part and not worry too much about conventional weapons (only for export we carry on with our conventional developments)

 

[QWECXZ]

Well as I said in my question "We just have to have better delivery systems (ICBMs)..and higher generation of the nuclear bombs"... so I am in full agreement that we should work on our Nuclear and ICBM part and not worry too much about conventional weapons (only for export we carry on with our conventional developments)

Yes, I obviously agree with that part of your statement.
But I am criticizing the other part that you say Iran is a nuclear capable state.
What's that supposed to mean exactly? How is Iran a nuclear capable state? What's your definition? What are your measures?

I mean Japan has over 1.5 million SWU/year and even Japan doesn't feel safe and fully independent. Iran has threatened to reach 190K SWU UF6/year for nearly 2 decades and has never reached even 10% of it. And 190K is just what we need for self-sufficiency for the nuclear fuel that is used by the Bushehr nuclear reactor every year.

Iran has a tiny, insignificant, useless nuclear program with less than 10 thousand SWU/year (when you convert UF6 to U) and people on here talk about Iran's nuclear capabilities already. What capabilities? We don't even know for sure if Iran has developed nuclear weapons yet. If Iran wants to become a nuclear capable state, deals like the JCPOA should not only happen ever again, but even now Iran should use this opportunity to escalate things as much as possible. Multiple times more than now.

 

[aryobarzan]

I mean Japan has over 1.5 million SWU/year and even Japan doesn't feel safe and fully independent.
Iran has a tiny, insignificant, useless nuclear program with less than 10 thousand SWU/year (when you convert UF6 to U) and people on here talk about Iran's nuclear capabilities already. What capabilities? We don't even know for sure if Iran has developed nuclear weapons yet.

This part is out of my pay grade ..If Iran's program is so tiny then why are the Westerners so up in arms against Iran....wait...may be it is not nuclear..it is other things and nuclear is just an excuse!!!.

 

[QWECXZ]

This part is out of my pay grade ..If Iran's program is so tiny then why are the Westerners so up in arms against Iran....wait...may be it is not nuclear..it is other things and nuclear is just an excuse!!!.

You do realize that most countries in the world, particularly the nuclear states, and even de-facto nuclear states like Japan, have tremendous enrichment capabilities. I mean Japan's enrichment capacity measured in separative work units is already 1.5 million SWU/year. And unlike Iran that declares SWU using UF6, most nuclear states use uranium instead of UF6.
1 SWU U/year is almost 1.6 SWU UF6/year. So, even peaceful Japan that has already outlawed pursuing nuclear weapons as the sole victim of them has over 150 times more nuclear enrichment capacity than Iran.

Russia, for example, has 24 million SWU/year. That's almost 3000 times more than Iran's capacity. Any country that wants to be taken seriously as a nuclear state should hit at least 1 million SWU/year. See the difference? Do you now see why Iran's enrichment program is a joke by international scales and it's really tiny?

The Westerners want Iran's resources. It is the duty of the Iranian system to protect itself. The Westerners have always had their eyes on our vast natural resources and we have suffered greatly for this in two world wars and the current Iranian establishment is doing nothing to prevent the same thing from happening in future.

 

[aryobarzan]

You do realize that most countries in the world, particularly the nuclear states, and even de-facto nuclear states like Japan, have tremendous enrichment capabilities. I mean Japan's enrichment capacity measured in separative work units is already 1.5 million SWU/year. And unlike Iran that declares SWU using UF6, most nuclear states use uranium instead of UF6.
1 SWU U/year is almost 1.6 SWU UF6/year. So, even peaceful Japan that has already outlawed pursuing nuclear weapons as the sole victim of them has over 150 times more nuclear enrichment capacity than Iran.

Russia, for example, has 24 million SWU/year. That's almost 3000 times more than Iran's capacity. Any country that wants to be taken seriously as a nuclear state should hit at least 1 million SWU/year. See the difference? Do you now see why Iran's enrichment program is a joke by international scales and it's really tiny?

The Westerners want Iran's resources. It is the duty of the Iranian system to protect itself. The Westerners have always had their eyes on our vast natural resources and we have suffered greatly for this in two world wars and the current Iranian establishment is doing nothing to prevent the same thing from happening in future.

Thank you..I can put things in perspective now...Time to put some fire under our Mulah Arse..Iran gets punished for having a bomb so these Fu*kers better get off their butt and cook some Uranium Metal..lol..Enough BS about Fatwa....the security of the nation is at stake...

 

[SalarHaqq]

do you want be like some country which could not finish a special military operation in designated time ?

Russia didn't announce a time frame for its military operation in Ukraine. It's western propaganda that tries to suggest otherwise without providing evidence.

---

Thank you..I can put things in perspective now...Time to put some fire under our Mulah Arse..Iran gets punished for having a bomb so these Fu*kers better get off their butt and cook some Uranium Metal..lol..Enough BS about Fatwa....the security of the nation is at stake...

The Islamic Republic has ensured Iran's security by deterring the US regime and the zionists from subjecting Iran to a totally destructive type of conflict. The proof is in the pudding. To crush Iran, they won't wait for an apocalyptic, nuclear World War III (for which I see no pressing indication to begin with): if they thought they could succeed without prohibitive cost, they'd have gone ahead some twenty years ago. This is beyond question.

As for a potential nuclear break out: similar to what we had discussed one or two years ago, if Iran's security against the US regime can no longer be ensured through asymmetrical conventional means - which is far from being the case right now, then a minimal nuclear arsenal would suffice because Washington is controlled by Isra"el"-firsters (to them, Tel Aviv's security trumps America's own), and due to its limited geographical extent only one or two nuclear impacts would seal the zionist entity's fate in a theoretical nuclear MAD scenario.