Iranian Chill Thread

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724594175977652434

 

[TheImmortal]

They are probably intercepting these Rezvan-type missile in exo-atmosphere. Arrow-3 has significant advantage over it at that altitude and this type of missile, and most of Iran's vertical launched BMs are not great at countering Arrow-3,

Depends on detection. You are talking less than 8 mins of flight time with likely maybe 5 mins of that in exo state.

If you can jettison 2nd stage early and your RV is probably radar shaped it makes detection more difficult.

Arrow 3 is unique in that the range is 2400KM so it can in theory cover a wide field of protection versus Patriot and THAAD.

however they have very few interceptors in stock, and very few batteries in general. If it were only Patriot/Arrow-2 batteries, it could be a different story.

Few batteries don’t matter given the range. They have at least 50-100 interceptors given the unit cost of $3M/interceptor and economics of scales it makes sense to build more interceptors to reduce overall program costs.

In the next 2 months if Houthi's can launch a mere 50-100 BMs, it would be very good. Use the cheap stuff.

Unlikely that Houthi’s will ever reach that rate of production. It would be surprising if they even have more than 150 long range BMs (2000KMs) in stockpile.

Yemen is under blockade you have to remember.

so you do see the benefit now

This benefit has always been there. Iran already knows most of Arrow-3 capabilities, data just helps solidify any question marks.

Arrow-3 isn’t a true threat to Iranian BMs since it’s basically launching a hypersonic BM to intercept another BM, these types of air defense systems are good at intercepting singular up to 5 BMs simultaneously (within 30 seconds claimed). They aren’t made to intercept a launch of 10+ BMs.

But against proxy forces that can only fire 1-2 at time with large intervals, it should provide sufficient protection as long as ISR is sufficent.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724582338099569071

Baghdad Bob’s of the board will tell you 1000 Israeli tanks destroyed and 5000 deaths.

Reality is different. When you siege a city, time is on attackers side as we saw in Syrian war. Longer you take, the better it is as your enemy wastes more and more ammo and depletes remaining stockpiles of food/fuel/etc.

Wouldn’t surprise me if fighters are taking captagon (methamphetamines) to stay alert and have energy.

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724610011190428078

Keep hearing that Israel plans on tackling Hezbollah in Lebanon after they’re done with Hamas in Gaza.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724556908609044832

Literal endless supply of weapons, money and equipment.

Insane hold Israel has over America.

 

[Blue In Green]

Depends on detection. You are talking less than 8 mins of flight time with likely maybe 5 mins of that in exo state.

If you can jettison 2nd stage early and your RV is probably radar shaped it makes detection more difficult.

Arrow 3 is unique in that the range is 2400KM so it can in theory cover a wide field of protection versus Patriot and THAAD.



Few batteries don’t matter given the range. They have at least 50-100 interceptors given the unit cost of $3M/interceptor and economics of scales it makes sense to build more interceptors to reduce overall program costs.



Unlikely that Houthi’s will ever reach that rate of production. It would be surprising if they even have more than 150 long range BMs (2000KMs) in stockpile.

Yemen is under blockade you have to remember.



This benefit has always been there. Iran already knows most of Arrow-3 capabilities, data just helps solidify any question marks.

Arrow-3 isn’t a true threat to Iranian BMs since it’s basically launching a hypersonic BM to intercept another BM, these types of air defense systems are good at intercepting singular up to 5 BMs simultaneously (within 30 seconds claimed). They aren’t made to intercept a launch of 10+ BMs.

But against proxy forces that can only fire 1-2 at time with large intervals, it should provide sufficient protection as long as ISR is sufficent.



Baghdad Bob’s of the board will tell you 1000 Israeli tanks destroyed and 5000 deaths.

Reality is different. When you siege a city, time is on attackers side as we saw in Syrian war. Longer you take, the better it is as your enemy wastes more and more ammo and depletes remaining stockpiles of food/fuel/etc.

Wouldn’t surprise me if fighters are taking captagon (methamphetamines) to stay alert and have energy.

Yeah I agree but I don’t think most people (well at least I didn’t) actually thought that Hamas alone could have stood any chance.

Wishful thinking to believe Hamas in Gaza would be able to beat an IDF solely concentrated on their utter eradication. Way too much armor, constant air surveillance and heavy weapons bearing down on you. IDF is clearly happy with blowing up whatever they can’t easily get to with soldiers.

Israel wants a long war and it has been a little over a month now. Those supplies stockpiled underground will begin to run dry sooner rather than later despite what Hamas says.

Either way, Gaza is gone and there is literally nothing to show for it other than ruining IDF’s image of invincibility and killing loads of innocent civilians in the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s image on the world stage has been battered to death (rightfully so) and their control in America will wane as Boomers, Gen-Xers and older millennials die out; leaving room for the younger generations who generally do not view Israel favorably. To take eventual leadership in the coming years.

I’m constantly flip flopping on whether or not Hezbollah will ignite the border and draw in other resistance elements, culminating in a potential Iranian intervention of some kind. But logic would dictate that this is not the case.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724590645027717212

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724625695140180318

 

[TheImmortal]

Yeah I agree but I don’t think most people (well at least I didn’t) actually thought that Hamas alone could have stood any chance.

Wishful thinking to believe Hamas in Gaza would be able to beat an IDF solely concentrated on their utter eradication. Way too much armor, constant air surveillance and heavy weapons bearing down on you. IDF is clearly happy with blowing up whatever they can’t easily get to with soldiers.

It’s like thinking the French Resistnsce could kick Nazi Germany out of Paris.

Israel wants a long war and it has been a little over a month now. Those supplies stockpiled underground will begin to run dry sooner rather than later despite what Hamas says.

Israel hedged itself by saying war would be long and difficult in order to not be pressured. It would have been worse if they said they would eradicate Hamas in 1 month and didn’t deliver.

In war you need to set clear objectives and a conservative timeline or else you end up like Saudi Arabia in Yemen or Russia in Ukraine.

Either way, Gaza is gone and there is literally nothing to show for it other than ruining IDF’s image of invincibility and killing loads of innocent civilians in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli Air Force is likely one of the best in the world.

IDF is merely [mostly] a reservist force similar to Iranian Artesh. Only difference is IDF gets shiny equipment and has the Air Force do most of the work and then ground force cleans up. Iranian Artesh they get zero Air Force and no equipment.

So I’m not sure where this modern day invincibility claim comes from. They haven’t been in any significant ground war since 2006. And prior to that was 30 years ago.

Much like Chinese ground forces they are largely unproven in near peer combat. People thought Russian army was #2 in the world and we saw how they performed. Outside of VDV and Spetnaz they are basic reservist force.

Extrapolating fighting capability by doing some resistance clean up operations every 5 years is hardly smart. Would be like judging Iranian Artesh if they had to go into Karaj every 5 years to kill insurgents.

Israel’s image on the world stage has been battered to death (rightfully so) and their control in America will wane as Boomers, Gen-Xers and older millennials die out; leaving room for the younger generations who generally do not view Israel favorably. To take eventual leadership in the coming years.

America will never let go of Israel as much as Iran will never let go of South Lebanon or Iraq. They are important to power projection.

I’m constantly flip flopping on whether or not Hezbollah will ignite the border and draw in other resistance elements, culminating in a potential Iranian intervention of some kind. But logic would dictate that this is not the case.

When IRGC was dieing in Syria where was Hamas? When Hezbollah was fighting in Aleppo, Yabrud, Homs, etc where was Hamas? Oh yeah it was supporting Al-Queda and other Sunni headchopper groups. Typical of Sunni’s factions they flip flop whenever they sense momentum. Well Hamas got burned badly on that choice. But you want to know why Arabs couldn’t defeat Israel since 1945, there you go —they don’t hesitate to backstab one another or switch allegiances when it suited them. Much like the Americans and Europeans.

There is an extent to which resistance will “die” for Hamas. PIJ is the only true Iranian proxy in Gaza and they will just rebuild in Syria and South Lebanon after the war.

Hezbollah isn’t entering this war baring some major unforeseen escalation —like assassinating Nasrallah.

 

[Sineva]

Zarifs opinion on the situation in gaza vis-a-vis iran
https://www.entekhab.ir/fa/news/743677/%D8%B7%DB%8C%D9%81%DB%8C-%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%BA%D8%B2%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B4-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B4%D8%AA%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%84%E2%80%8C%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D9%86-%DA%86%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724560720065396868

US strike against alleged “Iranian Quds force headquarters” in Syria 2 days ago.

IRGC training facility

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724560722934305257

 

[Mehdipersian]

A criminal terrorist state that shows no mercy to anyone

An elderly Palestinian person named "Bashir Haji" (79 years old) from Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza whom the Israeli army took a photo of him as an advertisement to help the displaced people and then they killed him.
#Palestine

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724747958866825704

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724762396143620602

 

[HGV]

Unconfirmed reports of Qatar-led 3 day truce agreed by Hamas

Hamas will release 50 prisoners and Israel will stop the fighting and allow fuel to enter Gaza for 3 days

Hamas has agreed but Israel has not yet agreed

 

[dani92]

The money used to buy all that blown up ammo could have been used to buy some cold weather protection and weapons for Iranian border guards . I suppose defending Arab lands is more important than defending Iranian land for the Arab worshipping mullahs of Iran..

You are misinformed without these Arab proxies Israel and US would surround and attack iran without the fear of pay back while the only thing that keeps them away from attacking iran is the Arab proxies because they know if they attack iran throw proxies iran will attack them back with its own proxies.

 

[aryobarzan]

You are misinformed without these Arab proxies Israel and US would surround and attack iran without the fear of pay back while the only thing that keeps them away from attacking iran is the Arab proxies because they know if they attack iran throw proxies iran will attack them back with its own proxies.

without threatening to destroy Israel we will not have US and Israel attacking us ....hence no need for proxis... hence Iranian $$$ and equipment can be used on Iranian soldiers. "chicken and egg story"..

Iran and Israel have no borders and never had any issues ..they did not steal our land and never attacked any Iranian ..they became Our enemy when stupid Mullahs of Iran decided to make them enemy no 1 and started the "Chicken and egg "story ..Hence the need to have proxy, hence the need to arm them hence the need...... ..you get the picture

 

[HGV]

without threatening to destroy Israel we will not have US and Israel attacking us

I think this is the crux of the divergence in views

To me it's clear that anything less than unyielding subservience to the US Empire and its Jewish supremacist enclave in the region will result in hostility from the US Empire

Unlike Turkey and the Arabs, Iran is not a nation of unyielding subservience