TheImmortal
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Hamas was about to lose out because Arab leaders once again turned their back on their own. They were all rushing to normalize with Israel, after which any incentive to a two state solution goes out the door for Israel. UAE sold out the Palestinians for some killswitch enabled nerfed F-35’s. Kind of sad.
This is problem with Arab people, most don’t understand. If you strip away Islam, If you strip away Shia vs Sunni, they are tribal. Even in Iraq. Saddam’s most trusted key men of power came from his tribe in Tikrit. Had nothing to do with Sunni or Shia. But tribe.
Post-Iraq This is why Solemani was so important he had relations with these various tribes going back decades to the Iraq war itself like the Badr group and Al-Sadr family. Hence even Kurdish tribes would heed his advice. They knew at the end of day the only consistent “power” who planned was Iran.
Everyone else flip flopped as time went on. Look at the Qatar embargo for instance. They don’t hesitate to punish their own. America abandons it’s “brown” Allies routinely, just look at what they allowed happen to Iraq as ISIS rolled thru. They only came in once they saw Iran was taking the lion share of the defense. Or else their plan was to allow Iraq to get so desperate and negotiate a new occupation agreeement. Iran thrawted that. Look at how they allowed the Turks to crush their ally Kurds in Syria.
Anyway You can’t make tribal people want to die for some random tribe in another “country”. This was true in 1967 and Yom Kippur war. The poor performance of Arab nations can be tied to a lack of unity and cohesion. After Arab nationalism failed (Egypt & Syria) both countries retreated back to their tribal roots or religious sects.
The last 15 years or so saw some unification of identity under “Sunni” umbrella and this was a seserpate attempt by Arab leaders who vividly knew their populations are not nationalistic so they unified them under sectarianism —the only tool in their arsenal against Iran. This was also briefly done after 1979 revolution when Iran raised the Basij and Arab Sunni leaders feared that 8M+ Shiite army would overrun the entire Middle East. Hence they backed Saddam to the tune of 30B+ dollars (in 1980 dollars btw) to keep the war going against Iran so he wouldn’t lose Karbala. The US+UK+France sold chemical precursors to fight off the Shia momentum and cause a stalement. Of course Iran made some tactical mistakes as well (human waves, using tanks as fixed artillery, etc).
to summarize: Arabs have a self identity crisis much like Africans they are tribal and lack cohesion and long term planning that Iranians, the imperialists, and Chinese specialize in for centuries . They simply don’t trust each other and don’t hesitate to back stab the other. Which makes building a coalition impossible.
Now today with this conflict, Iran got its “dream” scenario which is to rally the Arab world against Israel via the Palestinian cause. To finally look good in the eyes of Arab people who viewed them as a Shia threat more than Israel ever could be.
Except Iran just realized (or likely knew) that other than some empty words and gestures this isn’t 1967 anymore. The Arabs do not war with Israel nor do they want to help the Axis in any shape or form. They know if Iran weakens Israel then they will be next on the list. So they need a strong Israel to contain Iran. As much as they rely on USA they know that America is going to pivot to Asia for the Great Power Games of the coming decade(s) against China. America simply does not have enough military resources to contain Russia/Iran/China at the same time. It’s already spending $1T
/yr on its military. How long is that sustainable? At the current rate it could be $2T by the start of 2040 especially as it struggles to recruit younger generation population to sign up. The ones who do sign up are mostly fat or out of shape so now they are having to lower the bar of acceptance. These new soldiers are not your troops of 1980s - 2010s, they are lost misguided and emotional.
As for has either side gained what they wanted? No both sides are losing. Bibi lost his career and Israel lost its image. The ongoing civilian casualties points to the fact that Israel only knows how to fight war on one term —scorched earth policy. Everyone else fights war in 21st century while Israel is stuck in antiquity.
Hamas underestimated the war to this point wether that is from Israeli capability of dropping more bombs than US dropped in afghanistan in any given year. Or thought Arab countries would help out more. Or thought Axis would. I’m not sure.
It appears at the minimum Hamas delayed further Arab recognition of Israel. Israel will gain a new land enclave and only have to sacrifice a few thousand Jews for it. So both sides “won” in these respects.
I’m not sure where this conflict is headed at this point or what a Post Hamas led Gaza looks like to be honest. Lot of moving variables and the conflict could shift a different direction at a moments notice.
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