Iranian Chill Thread

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554806246058106880

Very good info graphic on the sheer amount of PGMs and support systems that Kaman-22 can carry.

 

[SalarHaqq]

the problem is that iran fertility rate is above 2, its around 2.1

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

well i agree we have problem here , but look at the chart since 2012 it went up and now again it is coming down

Problem is that the World Bank is being vehemently contradicted by the Statistical Center of Iran. According to the latter, Iran's fertility rate in 2021 stood at a flimsy 1,71. Read: an utter disaster spelling imminent doom.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/05/khamenei-warns-iranians-danger-declining-birth-rate

As for the World Bank, this is the same institution that will publish a ridiculously undervalued, unrealistic GDP figure for Iran. Not to be trusted from an Iranian perspective.

As for incremental changes from year to year, they don't affect the big picture i.e. the broad tendency. Quite obviously the figure for any country's fertility rate is not going to stay exactly identical all the time. But fact is that Iran has firmly entered the danger zone, worse, she is now having a fertility rate that is catastrophically low. And this means either that the downward trend is curbed now or it will never be.

that's what i say , its all short range measures can achieve , a short small raise and then coming down . we have time as our fertiluity rate is still around 2c, we must go after long term solution now ,10 years ago we went after short range solution and data is clear how effective they are

No serious and comprehensive package of efficient policy measures had been implemented thus far. It's only starting to take shape, on orders of the Supreme Leader and with an administration that isn't bent on challenging his guidelines, unlike the previous one.

 

[sha ah]

So if we are believe the Americans then several Russian delegations visited Iran to for an up close display for the Shahed 191 and Shahed 129

Shahed 191. This drone shows not only the extraordinary creativity but also just how industrious Iranian engineers are. They took arguably the most highly advanced stealth UAV on the world and made multiple variants of it in multiple variious proportional sizes that can not only be used for surveillance but also for precision strikes using PGMs. Iranian engineers even modified them so that they can be launched by simply pickup trucks

Shahed 129. Although this drone is an excellent UAV, with the latest variant being the Shahed 149 GAZA drone. Ukraine's contested airspace imo makes it unsuitable for mass usage by the Russians because of the price range, that's just in IMO although It's latest variant, the Gaza Shahed 149, is undeniably an excellent product indeed.

Iran also produces a large number of kamikaze drones, the most notorious of which are the Adabil 2 / Qasef-2k (Houthi designation). Using this drone this Houthis saturated the Aramco Aqaiq Kurais site, which was protected buy half a dozen Patriot SAM, including some of the newest variants, the PAC 3. Regardles they failed the Saudids lost half of their lost reserves.

The Ababil 2 / Qasef-2k IMO is a much better candidate for use in Ukraine's contested airspace
NOTE: Tajikistan, despite the risk of sanctions chose to begin a joint production facility with Iran to produce various variants of the Ababil 2

The Qasef 2k is the Houthi Variant of the Ababil-2

During the war in Ethiopia when the rebels were on the outskirts of the capital, Iranian drones like the Mojaher-6 helpled to turn tide. Another more cost effective option is the Ababal-5

Another interesting option for Russia is the Karrar interceptor drone, whose design is partially based on the 1970s-era Beechcraft MQM-107 Streaker target drone. Another testament to Iranian industriousness. Iran has reserve engineered this drone, modernized, its design, now uses lighter synthetic materials for its airframe. The drone itself has been turned into a Kamimaze drone and it can simultaneously launch an Iranian variant of the AIM-9 sidewinder using Iranian avionics and radar kits. It can even abort missions and parachute back back to bases if necessary .Quite remarkably ingenious. Imagine one of these shooting down a Bayraktar drone. It's quite capable since it's AIM 9 gives it a range of atleast 30-40 KM

The Kaman-12 is another cost effective option that can easily delivery PGM on targets without issue. The Kaman-22 is another option but against bcuz of the high risk of shoot down in Ukriane I would suggest the Kaman-12

Iran also produces a wide array of reconnaisancen drone of the Russians are own Orlon-10 stocks are depleted

The Iranian also produce several micro kamikazi drones

The Shahed 136 UAV is very desetructive and an be lauched from have a variety of platforms. It actually very much rresermbles the Russian KUB-BLA drone which is quite effective but against where Iranians military industry has also adapted to sanctions, Russia is just goingthrough the learning curb. This takes time and time in a war expected to last a few more more months is not something the Russians have at their disposal.

Iran Shahed 136

Russian Kalashkikov KUB-BLA UAV

Anyways the Russians IMO should stay away from the more flashier products in a highly contested airspace and stick to battle proven and cost effect models.

So at the end of the day my pick would by the Ababil 2 (Qasef 2K), Ababil 5, Mohajer 6 along with hundreds of drones strictly for surveillance and reconnaissance. What do you guys think ?

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554925591681552384

 

[drmeson]

Problem is that the World Bank is being vehemently contradicted by the Statistical Center of Iran. According to the latter, Iran's fertility rate in 2021 stood at a flimsy 1,71. Read: an utter disaster spelling imminent doom.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/05/khamenei-warns-iranians-danger-declining-birth-rate

As for the World Bank, this is the same institution that will publish a ridiculously undervalued, unrealistic GDP figure for Iran. Not to be trusted from an Iranian perspective.

As for incremental changes from year to year, they don't affect the big picture i.e. the broad tendency. Quite obviously the figure for any country's fertility rate is not going to stay exactly identical all the time. But fact is that Iran has firmly entered the danger zone, worse, she is now having a fertility rate that is catastrophically low. And this means either that the downward trend is curbed now or it will never be.



No serious and comprehensive package of efficient policy measures had been implemented thus far. It's only starting to take shape, on orders of the Supreme Leader and with an administration that isn't bent on challenging his guidelines, unlike the previous one.

1.71 is hilarious. The current population is 88.52 Million which will soon be 90 Million. It would not have risen this quick if the rate was 1.71. The figure of 2.1-2.2 makes more sense based upon population growth.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1553886242730901505

 

[SalarHaqq]

1.71 is hilarious. The current population is 88.52 Million which will soon be 90 Million. It would not have risen this quick if the rate was 1.71. The figure of 2.1-2.2 makes more sense based upon population growth.

It's not far fetched, since a current population figure of 88,5 million can indeed stem from a fertility rate of 1,71 in 1400. 1,71 and 2,1 will not make so much of a difference in terms of population growth, but will have drastically contrasting effects in terms of generational renewal and demographic ageing.

That 88,52 million figure is an estimate from a website which doesn't cite its sources when it comes to population figures, so we shouldn't consider it as a definitive fact. Also over the past year immigration from Afghanistan is said to have spiked once again, so some of the population growth is down to that influx.

Back to the fertility rate, so far we've basically seen an official figure from Iran herself versus an estimate of the World Bank, some of whose statistics about Iran such as GDP are known to be biased. In this case, bias would consist in covering up the extent of the demographic slump in order to hamper the urgently requires realization and mobilization of public institutions as well as of the Iranian public itself to counter the dangerous trend.

This is what the liberals are doing, minimizing the need for natalist efforts or discouraging these in various ways (denial of the seriousness of the situation, or fearmongering about the consequences of a completely unrealistic, Central African style demographic explosion etc). Needless to say, it's Iran's enemies that benefit from such narratives. At this point in time, any party repeating them is doing the enemy's bidding.

On the opposite end of the political spectrum, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution seyyed Khamenei has issued a warning about the lacking dynamism of Iran's demography and called for corrective measures, which tells us something about the state of affairs given that the Leader is not one to ring alarm bells prematurely or unnecessarily.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Problem is that the World Bank is being vehemently contradicted by the Statistical Center of Iran. According to the latter, Iran's fertility rate in 2021 stood at a flimsy 1,71. Read: an utter disaster spelling imminent doom.

1.71 don't add up with Iran population growth

 

[Nevsky]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554925591681552384

Aliyev is totally losing the plot, I think soon Russia and Iran will have work to do in Azerbaijan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555085619545636867

 

[Stryker1982]

Aliyev is totally losing the plot, I think soon Russia and Iran will have work to do in Azerbaijan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555085619545636867

The man is a thorn on the side for both countries, and something should be done about it. Acting hostile to both its Northern Southern and Western Neighbour.

 

[Battlion25]

Anyways the Russians IMO should stay away from the more flashier products in a highly contested airspace and stick to battle proven and cost effect models.

So at the end of the day my pick would by the Ababil 2 and Ababil 5 / Mohajer 6 along with hundreds of 136 for surveillance for reconnaisnance. What do you guys think ?"

Iran doesn't have battle proven drones... You wrote a long post without merit.

Here let me explain why.. Also I would like to add that Russia itself has more battle proven drones then Iran and better ones and that is me being completely honest.

What the Yemenis use are sucide drones that technically can't alter the conventional battlefield to their advantage meaning it does no benefit for them in the real time conventional battlefield it only serves as some sort of sneak attack on areas and that is only the ones that get thru other then that they are cheap toys that can't theorically alter a war zone conventional conflict.

I am not saying Iran doesn't have such Drones but until now Iran has not showchased these drones and lets separate facts from fiction you can hit facilitates with even home-made drone not a chellenge as they can even take off from within that country itself.

But what Russia seeks is drones that can alter things for them on the convetional battlefield something Iran has not showchased yet. Hence why I say Russia technically speaking has more formidble and battle proven drones that have actully achieved somewhat results in an conventional setting.

Again I am not saying Iran doesn't have these drones but we haven't seen it yet on display in any battle ground again don't confuse faciliates one of hits as conventional battlefield like the one Russia is currently engaged in across Eastern ukraine

It's not far fetched, since a current population figure of 88,5 million can indeed stem from a 1400 fertility rate of 1,71. 1,71 and 2,1 will not make so much of a difference in terms of population growth, but will have drastically different effects in terms of generational renewal and demographic ageing.

That 88,52 million figure is an estimate from a website which doesn't cite its sources when it comes to population figures, so we shouldn't consider it a definitive fact yet. Also over the past year immigration from Afghanistan is said to have spiked once again.

Back to the fertility rate, so far we've basically seen an official figure from Iran herself versus an estimate of the World Bank, some of whose statistics about Iran such as GDP are known to be biased. In this case, bias would consist in covering up the extent of the demographic slump in order to hamper the urgently needed realization and mobilization of public institutions as well as of the Iranian public itself to counter the dangerous trend.

This is what the liberals are doing, minimizing the priority of natalist efforts or discouraging these in various ways (denial of the seriousness of the situation, or fearmongering about the consequences of a completely unrealistic, sub-Saharan style demographic explosion etc). Needless to say, it's Iran's enemies that benefit from such narratives.

On the opposite end of the political spectrum, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution seyyed Khamenei has issued a warning about the lacking dynamism of Iran's demography and called for corrective measures, which tells us something about the state of affairs given that the Leader is not one to ring alarm bells prematurely or unnecessarily.

I agree with you here but also something to keep in mind is that the entire population is not correct precisely in Asia example I was in Kyrgyzstan once and the country claims to be 6.5mio but I swear to god it didn't felt like they were 6.5mio and my estimation would be 12-14mio which means around 8mio are discounted and that is a huge number..

The same case with Iran imho. Iran could technically be anywhere bertween 70 to 100mio and this is the same case in many Asian countries

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran doesn't have battle proven drones... You wrote a long post without merit.

Here let me explain why.. Also I would like to add that Russia itself has more battle proven drones then Iran and better ones and that is me being completely honest.

What the Yemenis use are sucide drones that technically can't alter the conventional battlefield to their advantage meaning it does no benefit for them in the real time conventional battlefield it only serves as some sort of sneak attack on areas and that is only the ones that get thru other then that they are cheap toys that can't theorically alter a war zone conventional conflict.

I am not saying Iran doesn't have such Drones but until now Iran has not showchased show drones and lets separate facts from fiction you can hit facilitates with even home-made drone not a chellenge as they can even take off from within that country itself.

But what Russia seeks is drones that can alter things for them on the convetional battlefield something Iran has not showchased yet. Hence why I say Russia technically speaking has more formidble and battle proven drones that have actully achieved somewhat results in an conventional setting.

Again I am not saying Iran doesn't have these drones but we haven't seen it yet on display in any battle ground again don't confuse faciliates one of hits as conventional battlefield like the one Russia is currently engage in across Eastern ukraine

It doesn't work like that.

That's like saying every piece of equipment produced in EU countries is useless becausse they haven't fought a war yet to showcase it. Just because of piece of equipment is not used in real-life setting doesn't mean it doesn't have any merit. This is not how military field works at all. Most pieces of equipment ever designed goes unused.

It would be like saying Pakistani nuclear missiles are not battle hardened because they haven't been proven yet. Well, does it look like anyone wants to try to test Pakistan to see if those missiles actually work? No obviously not.

The merit is based on specifications of the equipment and the Russian drones are useful, but with many drawback and many have been shot down. But they are not even close to Iran with regards to both diversity of assets and inventories. As of today, Iran is ahead of Russia in this sector and getting some equipment from Iran would be helpful for this. Might not change the game, but it would certainly save many Russian soldiers who atleast have a recon drone watching their backs. They need UAVs to cover this enormous front line.

 

[Battlion25]

It doesn't work like that.

That's like saying every piece of equipment produced in EU countries is useless becausse they haven't fought a war yet to showcase it. Just because of piece of equipment is not used in real-life setting doesn't mean it doesn't have any merit. This is not how military field works at all. Most pieces of equipment ever designed goes unused.

It would be like saying Pakistani nuclear missiles are not battle hardened because they haven't been proven yet. Well, does it look like anyone wants to try to test Pakistan to see if those missiles actually work? No obviously not.

The merit is based on specifications of the equipment and the Russian drones are useful, but with many drawback and many have been shot down. But they are not even close to Iran with regards to both diversity of assets and inventories. As of today, Iran is ahead of Russia in this sector and getting some equipment from Iran would be helpful for this. Might not change the game, but it would certainly save many Russian soldiers who atleast have a recon drone watching their backs. They need UAVs to cover this enormous front line.

Not denying that the Iranians could potentially be ahead of the Russians in this field but I haven't seen that on display yet. Yes the Europeans have drones and so do the Americans. The American drones have been on the battlefield and have done somewhat decently compared to the Russian drones they achieved somewhat results but not the greatest.

Even Pakistan has multiple self-made drones but they are still unproven on real battleground. There is nothing negative in having the weapons but still not battle proven.

Hence why I say if Iran has superior drones to the Russian it is something we haven't seen yet and it could be a possibility not denying it

 

[Stryker1982]

Not denying that the Iranians could potentially be ahead of the Russians in this field but I haven't seen that on display yet. Yes the Europeans have drones and so do the Americans. The American drones have been on the battlefield and have done somewhat decently compared to the Russian drones they achieved somewhat results but not the greatest.

Even Pakistan has multiple self-made drones but they are still unproven on real battleground. There is nothing negative in having the weapons but still not battle proven.

Hence why I say if Iran has superior drones to the Russian it is something we haven't seen yet and it could be a possibility not denying it

They can certainly do the job, when it comes to normal types of COIN operations, but I will concede that I am still not sure how it can carry itself in a very congested AD and EW environment. If the Pentagon finds evidence they are actually used/deployed, I will expect them to immediately start sending other types of AD systems from their inventory to Ukraine to counter them.

But I expect it to be able to perform at the level of Russian UAVs if not greater, but in much greater numbers. Some will certainly be shot down, no hate just a statistical probability.

 

[Battlion25]

They can certainly do the job, when it comes to normal types of COIN operations, but I will concede that I am still not sure how it can carry itself in a very congested AD and EW environment. If the Pentagon finds evidence they are actually used/deployed, I will expect them to immediately start sending other types of AD systems from their inventory to Ukraine to counter them.

But I expect it to be able to perform at the level of Russian UAVs if not greater, but in much greater numbers. Some will certainly be shot down, no hate just a statistical probability.

I agree with you..

I will also like to add regarding Russia's war against Ukraine it played out how i envisioned it would play out. When you factor in the conventional probability there was never gonna be a roll over whereas the majority of the people were thinking Russia is just gonna come in and roll over.

We have seen conflicts since the last 20yrs but they have all somehow turned into drawn out, cagey affiars and prolonged conflicts that turn into conflicts of attration it was never by chance that thing mostly turn that way.

When you factor in the population of Ukraine 45mio vs 146mio Russians and you factor in that Ukraine is at home you will find yourself in a dog-fight regardless of all the advantages. Not to forget Ukraine is handsomely armed but even if they were not armed as well as they are now they could have still made it into a dog-fight and the battle lines would have been the same..

Alot of people don't factor in today what actully happens when I throw my army against 45mio population that are heavily armed? and how far can I roll over them? There is mathematic probability in wars.

I see Russia probably taking Donbass and perhaps pushing little bit further east perhaps reaching closer to the river but other then that they will be forced to accept long term ceasefires and wait for 10-15 years before going for the 2nd round again.

Hence Russia could only achieve a total capture of Ukraine in the next 70-90 years across as many as 4 wars with 15-20 years pause gaps