TheImmortal
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Very good info graphic on the sheer amount of PGMs and support systems that Kaman-22 can carry.
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the problem is that iran fertility rate is above 2, its around 2.1
well i agree we have problem here , but look at the chart since 2012 it went up and now again it is coming down
that's what i say , its all short range measures can achieve , a short small raise and then coming down . we have time as our fertiluity rate is still around 2c, we must go after long term solution now ,10 years ago we went after short range solution and data is clear how effective they are
Problem is that the World Bank is being vehemently contradicted by the Statistical Center of Iran. According to the latter, Iran's fertility rate in 2021 stood at a flimsy 1,71. Read: an utter disaster spelling imminent doom.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/05/khamenei-warns-iranians-danger-declining-birth-rate
As for the World Bank, this is the same institution that will publish a ridiculously undervalued, unrealistic GDP figure for Iran. Not to be trusted from an Iranian perspective.
As for incremental changes from year to year, they don't affect the big picture i.e. the broad tendency. Quite obviously the figure for any country's fertility rate is not going to stay exactly identical all the time. But fact is that Iran has firmly entered the danger zone, worse, she is now having a fertility rate that is catastrophically low. And this means either that the downward trend is curbed now or it will never be.
No serious and comprehensive package of efficient policy measures had been implemented thus far. It's only starting to take shape, on orders of the Supreme Leader and with an administration that isn't bent on challenging his guidelines, unlike the previous one.
1.71 is hilarious. The current population is 88.52 Million which will soon be 90 Million. It would not have risen this quick if the rate was 1.71. The figure of 2.1-2.2 makes more sense based upon population growth.
1.71 don't add up with Iran population growthProblem is that the World Bank is being vehemently contradicted by the Statistical Center of Iran. According to the latter, Iran's fertility rate in 2021 stood at a flimsy 1,71. Read: an utter disaster spelling imminent doom.
Aliyev is totally losing the plot, I think soon Russia and Iran will have work to do in Azerbaijan.
The man is a thorn on the side for both countries, and something should be done about it. Acting hostile to both its Northern Southern and Western Neighbour.Aliyev is totally losing the plot, I think soon Russia and Iran will have work to do in Azerbaijan.
Anyways the Russians IMO should stay away from the more flashier products in a highly contested airspace and stick to battle proven and cost effect models.
So at the end of the day my pick would by the Ababil 2 and Ababil 5 / Mohajer 6 along with hundreds of 136 for surveillance for reconnaisnance. What do you guys think ?"
It's not far fetched, since a current population figure of 88,5 million can indeed stem from a 1400 fertility rate of 1,71. 1,71 and 2,1 will not make so much of a difference in terms of population growth, but will have drastically different effects in terms of generational renewal and demographic ageing.
That 88,52 million figure is an estimate from a website which doesn't cite its sources when it comes to population figures, so we shouldn't consider it a definitive fact yet. Also over the past year immigration from Afghanistan is said to have spiked once again.
Back to the fertility rate, so far we've basically seen an official figure from Iran herself versus an estimate of the World Bank, some of whose statistics about Iran such as GDP are known to be biased. In this case, bias would consist in covering up the extent of the demographic slump in order to hamper the urgently needed realization and mobilization of public institutions as well as of the Iranian public itself to counter the dangerous trend.
This is what the liberals are doing, minimizing the priority of natalist efforts or discouraging these in various ways (denial of the seriousness of the situation, or fearmongering about the consequences of a completely unrealistic, sub-Saharan style demographic explosion etc). Needless to say, it's Iran's enemies that benefit from such narratives.
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution seyyed Khamenei has issued a warning about the lacking dynamism of Iran's demography and called for corrective measures, which tells us something about the state of affairs given that the Leader is not one to ring alarm bells prematurely or unnecessarily.
It doesn't work like that.Iran doesn't have battle proven drones... You wrote a long post without merit.
Here let me explain why.. Also I would like to add that Russia itself has more battle proven drones then Iran and better ones and that is me being completely honest.
What the Yemenis use are sucide drones that technically can't alter the conventional battlefield to their advantage meaning it does no benefit for them in the real time conventional battlefield it only serves as some sort of sneak attack on areas and that is only the ones that get thru other then that they are cheap toys that can't theorically alter a war zone conventional conflict.
I am not saying Iran doesn't have such Drones but until now Iran has not showchased show drones and lets separate facts from fiction you can hit facilitates with even home-made drone not a chellenge as they can even take off from within that country itself.
But what Russia seeks is drones that can alter things for them on the convetional battlefield something Iran has not showchased yet. Hence why I say Russia technically speaking has more formidble and battle proven drones that have actully achieved somewhat results in an conventional setting.
Again I am not saying Iran doesn't have these drones but we haven't seen it yet on display in any battle ground again don't confuse faciliates one of hits as conventional battlefield like the one Russia is currently engage in across Eastern ukraine
It doesn't work like that.
That's like saying every piece of equipment produced in EU countries is useless becausse they haven't fought a war yet to showcase it. Just because of piece of equipment is not used in real-life setting doesn't mean it doesn't have any merit. This is not how military field works at all. Most pieces of equipment ever designed goes unused.
It would be like saying Pakistani nuclear missiles are not battle hardened because they haven't been proven yet. Well, does it look like anyone wants to try to test Pakistan to see if those missiles actually work? No obviously not.
The merit is based on specifications of the equipment and the Russian drones are useful, but with many drawback and many have been shot down. But they are not even close to Iran with regards to both diversity of assets and inventories. As of today, Iran is ahead of Russia in this sector and getting some equipment from Iran would be helpful for this. Might not change the game, but it would certainly save many Russian soldiers who atleast have a recon drone watching their backs. They need UAVs to cover this enormous front line.
Not denying that the Iranians could potentially be ahead of the Russians in this field but I haven't seen that on display yet. Yes the Europeans have drones and so do the Americans. The American drones have been on the battlefield and have done somewhat decently compared to the Russian drones they achieved somewhat results but not the greatest.
Even Pakistan has multiple self-made drones but they are still unproven on real battleground. There is nothing negative in having the weapons but still not battle proven.
Hence why I say if Iran has superior drones to the Russian it is something we haven't seen yet and it could be a possibility not denying it
They can certainly do the job, when it comes to normal types of COIN operations, but I will concede that I am still not sure how it can carry itself in a very congested AD and EW environment. If the Pentagon finds evidence they are actually used/deployed, I will expect them to immediately start sending other types of AD systems from their inventory to Ukraine to counter them.
But I expect it to be able to perform at the level of Russian UAVs if not greater, but in much greater numbers. Some will certainly be shot down, no hate just a statistical probability.