Iranian Chill Thread

[jauk]

my argument is when you advertise for 5-6 even more children instead of 2-3 children that's uncontrollable growth. just look at Iran till khatamy era
when you talk about making the population twice the current level in 10-15 years that uncontrollable growths . that will lead to strain in natural resources , that lower education standard , that increase unemployment.

and no the ideal growth rate is a very slow growth rate . not zero growth rate or negative one and certainly not doubling the population in 15 years.
do you knew for start what that do to agricultural lands , how it make the farms even smaller and more ineffective , how it destroy our resources ?

I’m not aware of ‘uncontrollable growth’ during any period in Iranian history. What you’re alluding to was not that.

The only sources that are in any way viable to me are Iranian research on Iran by Iranians. Foreign sources can keep to themselves. You should deeply question your mode of thinking as it’s very foundation is suspect.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554556522600009729

 

[drmeson]

Depends on the person, here in the UK the Sunni ones from Iraq are very devout. I've met many.

From my own experience, Muslims of any type in the UK generally are very religious, for whatever reason.

I was talking about Kurds in their native region. Most who come to study in major cities and then go to the western world for further studies would adhere to their Kurdish and then tribal identities. When they get urbanized they forget the background like any other ethnicity.

 

[drmeson]

As someone with some Kurdish lineage this isn’t true about Iranian Kurds.

Many are Shia or as @SalarHaqq said some branch of Shiism.. Have historically Persian or Shiite names. It is true they still keep their cultural identity and linguistic identity but so do Lors, Balouchis, and Turkic Iranians.

Secular Iranian Kurds don’t exist anymore in numbers proportionally than secular Persians or Turkic Iranians in my opinion.

Among Iranians of any kind, Kurds are the most ethnonationalist. You won't hear tribal BS from Persians, Mazandaranis, Azeris etc the way a Kurd will tell you how he is a "Kord" from Kalhur, Shekaki, Mukri and Jalali (and 5000 other) branches. Maybe it has something to do with urbanization in other groups which Kords were deprived of for a long time.

This is why Dr. Fereydoun Derakhshani (Fields medal winner) from Iranian Kurdistan, a graduate of University of Tehran, became "Cauchar Birkar The Kurdish mathematician" in the west. Voria Ghafouri the Kurdish captain of Esteghlal was dismissed because he is 35 with declining form and people were protesting like there is an ethnic angle to it.

I am not saying this is bad or something, my own group used to be similar but we became urbanized very fast in the last 60-70 years, leaving our tribal ego behind. Kurds will forget that they are Kurds in the next 15-20 years.

 

[drmeson]

Utter nonsense.

You can call it whatever you want but Government is realizing this more than any of us. They are taking in migrant families. Go to the south of Tehran, any part of Mashad and you will see what I am talking about.

 

[drmeson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554389972228136961

Afshin Khajeh Fard is one busy man these days. He can be to the aviation industry of Iran what Farzad Esmaili was to Air defense.

Maybe finally we are getting rid of crude minded battle hardened soldiers in decision making seats. No more Ahmad Vahidi, Dehghan or Salami.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554682799751417857

 

[Hack-Hook]

I’m not aware of ‘uncontrollable growth! During any period in Iranian history. What you’re alluding too was not that.

look at it , our population growth at 80's and early 90s was between 3%->5% that was uncontrollable growth rate , if khatami government didn't started that campain for population control right now we were more populace than Pakistan and indentation and that was worrying as we don't have infra structure for that.

Iran Population Growth Rate 1950-2024

Chart and table of Iran population from 1950 to 2024. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

www.macrotrends.net

now if you look at prediction charts we will have a healthy growth rate well into 2040s even late 2040s but then the growth rate fell low dangerously and in mid 2050 it become negative .
that's something we must stop , but we have 25 years to plan and prevent it to happen , my belief is instead of loosing our mind and plan to increase the population in hurry we must look and find the cause of the problems and fix that , giving preferential incentives , like reducing the conscription time , increasing maternity leave , and giving subsidiaries or preventing medical abortion is not the answer . we must solve the route cause that people prefer not to marry , not to have children or have only one children . we solve that and that negative growth in mid 2050 change into a healthy growth between 0.3%-0.5%

sadly long term planning and solving problems from roots is hard and our top managers don't like hard work. they prefer paint the wall and say we solved the problem with dampening that damage the wall

 

[Hack-Hook]

You can call it whatever you want but Government is realizing this more than any of us. They are taking in migrant families. Go to the south of Tehran, any part of Mashad and you will see what I am talking about.

instead of empowering the community you want weaken them in those lands they are and concentrate them in one place , very bath move , it is like instead of empowering shia minority in Lebanon in 1980 we had transferred them to Iran .
\now tell me isn't it wrong and nonsense to transfer those people to Iran

 

[mohsen]

There was a time when reformist shits were selling the country with the excuse of necessity of attracting west founds to build refineries, yesterday, a $ 17.8 billion deal for financing a refinery was signed in one of government offices.

what was the reaction of reformist shits ? their articles were some lies about the change of carpets in that office!

This mother fucker was the main leader:

همتی: دولت درگیر تبدیل فرش های دفتر دولت به زیلوست

سرویس اقتصادی - رئیس اسبق بانک مرکزی با انتشار پستی در اینستاگرام خود نسبت به عمیق‌تر شدن فاصله اقتصاد کشور نسبت به همسایه‌های آن در منطقه هشدار داد.

www.barkhat.news

 

[SalarHaqq]

Salar all of the historic events show you wrong . economy and education take precedence other wise your population wont be a producing one , they become just baby factories that burden you .

Empirical data confirm what I explained. This is not "my" assessment, it's academic consensus among experts.

you want them for army , well they only be good as cannon fodder and militia just like Taliban , when they face an organized army they had to go and hide under the rock , you want them for industry , just look how good Afghanistan advance as an industry power house ,
what you guys envision for Iran just bring the standard of the living up to Indian levels . now a question for you how many of Indian population live on streets ?

The above is detached from facts and figures: Iran is miles away from being even remotely exposed to any of these risks, because its fertility rate has fallen below replacement levels. The mentioned issues may arise if a country has a fertility rate comparable to current sub-Saharan ones (and I insist on may, because in past decades Iran herself experienced sustained demographic growth and rapid industrialization, strengthening of her national defence and of her population's living standards all at once).

But not if the figure is inferior to 2,1 as is the case of Iran, nor if it came to stabilize in between 2,1 and 2,5 which is what any sane and well-meaning person will advocate for Iran right now. And this, in turn, will be totally impossible unless well funded, well thought out contingency measures are taken by Iranian authorities. It's now or never. It's life or death, no more and no less.

The Supreme Leader is in the know about this, which is why he sounded the alarm in no uncertain terms and asked the government to seriously address the existential hazard.

Either way, with the brutal demographic stagnation Iran is suffering at the moment, it's genuinely preposterous to attribute any relevance to economic and social challenges associated with over-population. They are not a topic that matters for Iran.

and no its not that demographic decline is irreversible , or not the question . you must ask why the families don't have children and fix that problem , that bring back what is said are more important

The fact that demographic decline is irreversible is established, and its the crux of the issue. Once the phenomenon sets in, there is no way back.

In effect there's not a single example of successful reversal of demographic decline in the modern era anywhere in the world. Every observable example, from Germany to south Korea via Russia demonstrates this.

Affected nations either open the floodgates for wild mass immigration, or end up desperately spending astronomic sums to redress their demography - to no avail whatsoever. At that point, the local globalist oligarchy gains the upper hand and manages to impose its immigrationist anti-national agenda against the waning resistance of the local population.

Case in point, south Korea which has spent more than 130 billion USD in this area. Result: steadily plummeting demographic growth, getting worse every year. The Koreans did conduct studies on why their citizens don't give birth to as many children as in the past - and they have excellent sociologists, economists and policy planners; they have been attempting to concentrate on the causes, they did all that. But it's too late, simple as that.

https://www.worldfinance.com/featured/baby-boom-or-bust-why-south-korea-is-desperately-trying-to-boost-its-birth-rate

Time is of the essence, because demographic crisis has this terribly nasty characteristic of being final and irreversible under present day conditions.

and by the way the border is already wide open , what it brought us , drive in tehran street , stuck behind red light and you see what that nonsense bring shia to Iran strategy bring here

Iran has no immigration policy: she is not encouraging immigration by design nor in a calculated and planned manner; likewise, efforts to assign a particular place to immigrants in society are limited. That's largely because immigration into Iran is stemming from only one single country, which happens to be Persian-speaking itself, namely Afghanistan.

Also,as I clearly mentioned, immigrants from Iran's immediate neighborhood and from the Iranian civilizational sphere are not going to cut it once there is economic urgency induced by a definitely stagnant demography.

By then, immigrants from other continents and faraway places with lower living standards than Iran - there are many of those around the world, and they abound with massive young populations, will have to be brought in en masse. Either that, or Iran will literally be finished. Well, as a distinct nation she'd be finished in either of these two cases!

Also, rule of thumb for a qualified social scientist: pictures don't imply anything on their own, especially when decontextualized and devoid of proper analysis.

you must decide what you want for those children you are so anxious to bring to this world
what i post above , or what i post below

There will be no future for anyone if demographic crisis is not tackled immediately. Iran will disappear from the map, or the children will look very different from the ones in those photographs, courtesy of intensive mixing of locals with migrants from thoroughly alien lands. Both options are attractive to Iran's zio-American enemies, as well as to their domestic fifth column.

To insist once more: development issues stemming from outright demographic explosion (i.e. fertility rates higher than 4 or 5) do not apply in any shape or form to a country like Iran with an agonizing demography and a below replacement level fertility rate.

---

I will ask readers to pay particular attention and to carefully ponder what follows, for it is useful for gaining a solid understanding of how the globalist oligarchy that sits atop the empire is instrumentalizing demography, development and migration to advance its ruthless nation-wrecking agenda.

This offers, by the way, a brilliant illustration as to how and why this imperial oligarchy is an existential enemy to practically every nation, including to their own. Divisions are mercilessly exploited by these elites to divert people's attention away from what should rank first among their priorities: to put a decisive halt to this brutal empire's nefarious schemes.

The country of Rwanda in central Africa is enjoying some of the highest development standards among sub-Saharan nations. After the massive killings of the 1990's, it entered a period of sustained economic growth and social development. However, if you thought the globalist oligarchy and affiliated imperialist regimes would spare an Africans from mass immigration originating in alien parts of the world, think again. Africans too are being uprooted, and not just as emigrants towards the north, but right at home too: as soon as an African nation reaches sufficient development levels, it is forced to accept migrants from remote and culturally alien areas.

And so it happens that western regimes such as the UK have begun transferring Afghan and Syrian refugees to Rwanda, under the bogus pretext that room must be made in Britain for new arrivals from Ukraine!

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/r...-first-deportation-flight-uk-schedule-1677669

https://news.sky.com/story/syrian-a...ation-flight-to-rwanda-say-charities-12625201

The globalists and their imperialist henchmen will never cease recycling the fallout of the wars of aggression which they themselves are triggering. From one engineered, managed crisis to the next, they proceed methodically and step by step towards their end goal, leaving behind an endless trail of immeasurable human suffering.

And they are not going to stop until they are either defeated by the Resistance, or successful in imposing their unified, totalitarian one-world government (universal republic) on an enslaved mankind. In that regime, there will be no place for any of the currently existing nations and states including Iran, nor for any of the currently existing, traditional faith systems including Islam, including Zoroastrianism.

Back on topic, you are looking right here at the future of Iran - at the "best" case scenario, that is. Unless the catastrophic demographic slump is reversed now.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Yes a fatwa can be changed, but in this case if this ruling was issued as wali e amr then it is even easier and more justifiable to change this order.
Brother @SalarHaqq can shed more light.

Sorry, I am not familiar with the specifics and conditions of revoking fatwas. I believe an online search might be helpful in this regard.

What I can say though is this:

1) Contrary to claims from western sources, the existence of such fatwas by the Supreme Leader is not debatable, including as far as written reproductions through official Iranian state channels are concerned.

2) Again contrary to western propaganda, fatwas by our mojtaheds are not valueless formalities nor easily rescindable on a whim. They are serious religious edicts and carry weight including legally from the shar'i point of view.

3) Does this mean no fatwa can ever be revised depending on circumstances? I would guess it could in theory (as said I have no precise knowledge about this aspect), but to be sure it's not a trivial affair and the justifications for such a move will have to be extremely compelling.

4) I don't think recent statements by Iranian officials or politicians are signaling an upcoming move towards nuclear armament or some sort of a decision to that effect. Nor should anyone believe that those who issued these statements aren't in line with the Supreme Leader. Their statements have certainly been coordinated to some extent with the latter's Office, for the matter is of a strategic nature.

The goal, I believe, is simply to remind the enemy of the fact that technically Iran retains full break out capability as a potential option. Option which may become more realistic if the enemy committed an utter folly, such as launching significant military strikes on Islamic Iran, for example.

This has to be seen against the backdrop of USA president Biden's visit to Tel Aviv, where as you probably know, the prime minister of the zionist entity pressed his American counterpart to get tougher on Iran. In parallel, the US regime after a certain hiatus explicitly talked of a supposed military option.

The declarations in Tel Aviv were made on the 14th of July by the way, which is a very masonic date, in other terms of high symbolic value to freemasonry because it officially marks the - largely masonic-driven - French Revolution of 1789. And symbolism is everything to these people.

Equally interesting is the fact that western powers had the 2015 JCPOA or so-called Iran nuclear deal itself concluded on a 14th of July.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/14/israel-lapid-biden-iran-diplomacy-00045785

---

my argument is when you advertise for 5-6 even more children instead of 2-3 children that's uncontrollable growth. just look at Iran till khatamy era

when you talk about making the population twice the current level in 10-15 years that uncontrollable growths . that will lead to strain in natural resources , that lower education standard , that increase unemployment.

and no the ideal growth rate is a very slow growth rate . not zero growth rate or negative one and certainly not doubling the population in 15 years.
do you knew for start what that do to agricultural lands , how it make the farms even smaller and more ineffective , how it destroy our resources ?

uncontrollable growth that is supported now result in rapid urbanization , that lead to farmlands divided even more , it destroy food security
look at Vietnam , for example compare its south east with the rest of the country , while west of the country that don't have that overpopulation is the productive part that contribute tho the country food security
look at Haiti, how the country ecosystem is destroyed

This is not what we're talking about. The ideal fertility rate is between 2,1 and 2,5 children on average per woman, and that's what I've been advocating.

Moreover, it's already become an extremely difficult task to raise the figure to said levels. By contrast, 5 to 6 children is totally unrealistic and out of reach. There's not the slightest chance in the world of such a thing taking place in Iran. I don't know who's advocating it to be honest, but it is of no practical relevance.

So, let's avoid chasing windmills by addressing views not expressed by any one of us. The sole effect this may have is to prevent people from realizing the pressing need to improve the demographic evolution of Iran right now. This is what's urgent, not fictive scenarii of Iran being threatened by the consequences of extra high fertility rates superior to 5 or 6, which is not going to happen anyway.

you guys are talking about imminent danger while i see this that show Iran has a positive population growth and really can't understand cause of your concerns

by the way wonder whats your idea about this chart about lowering CO2 emission

As highlighted in the past, the decisive indicator is fertility rate rather than population growth. Because the impact of insufficient fertility on the growth rate takes some time to materialize. But the deficiency will become irreversible even before demographic growth reaches zero or becomes negative.

So all eyes should be on fertility numbers much more than demographic growth ratio. And in this regard, Iran is threatened because her fertility rate has fallen below demographic replacement levels, in other terms under the 2,1 mark. It is therefore factual that Iran's demography has entered the danger zone. Another fact is that once such a situation arises, it is better attended to right away otherwise it will no longer be solvable other than through mass immigration.

 

[DoubleYouSee]

Hi guys,have you checked this youtube channel so far?
here i posted an alasysis of how Iran downed RQ-170.
do you agree with his scenarios?

 

[Hack-Hook]

Sorry, I am not familiar with the specifics and conditions of revoking fatwas. I believe an online search might be helpful in this regard.

What I can say though is this:

1) Contrary to claims from western sources, the existence of such fatwas by the Supreme Leader is not debatable, including as far as written reproductions in official Iranian state media are concerned.

2) Again contrary to western propaganda, fatwas by our mojtaheds are not valueless formalities nor easily rescindable on a whim. They are serious religious edicts and carry weight including legally from the shar'i point of view.

3) Does this mean no fatwa can ever be revised depending on circumstances? Probably not I would guess (as said I have to precises knowledge about this aspect), but to be sure it's not a trivial affair and the justifications for such a move will have to be very compelling.

4) I don't think that recent statements by Iranian officials or politicians are signaling an upcoming move by Iran towards nuclear armament, or a decision to that effect. Nor should anyone believe that those who made such statements aren't in line with the Supreme Leader's position. Their statements are certainly coordinated to some extent with the latter's office.

The goal, I believe, is simply to remind the enemy of the fact that technically, Iran's retains full break out capability as a potential option. Option that may become more realistic if the enemy committed an utter folly, such as launching significant military strikes on Islamic Iran.

This has to be seen against the background of USA president Biden's visit to Tel Aviv, where as you probably know, the prime minister of the zionist entity pressed his American counterpart to get tougher on Iran. In parallel, the US regime explicitly talked of a supposed military option after a certain hiatus.

The declarations in Tel Aviv were made on the 14th of July, by the way, which is a very masonic date, or in other terms of high symbolic value to freemasonry, because it officially marks the success of the - largely masonic-driven - French Revolution of 1789. And symbolism is everything to these people.

Equally interesting is the fact that western powers had the 2015 JCPOA or so-called Iran nuclear deal itself concluded on a 14th of July.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/14/israel-lapid-biden-iran-diplomacy-00045785

---

That's not what we're talking about here. The ideal fertility rate is between 2,1 and 2,5 children on average per woman, and that's what we're advocating.

It is, furthermore, an extremely difficult task to raise the rate to said levels already. By contrast, 5 to 6 children is totally unrealistic and out of reach. There's not the slightest chance in the world for such a thing to take place in Iran, whether someone advocates it or not is therefore of no relevance.

So, let's stop chasing windmills and addressing statements that nobody here made. For the only effect this may have, is to prevent people from realizing the absolute urgency of improving the demographic evolution in Iran right now. This is what's urgent, not fictive scenarii of Iran being threatened by the consequences of extra high fertility rates "superior to 5 or 6".



As highlighted in the past, the decisive indicator is fertility rate, not population growth. Because the impact of insufficient fertility on the growth rate takes some time to materialize. But the deficiency will become irreversible even before demographic growth reaches zero or becomes negative.

So all eyes should be on fertility numbers, not on the demographic growth ratio. And in this regard, Iran is threatened because er fertility rate has fallen below demographic replacement levels, in other terms under the 2,1 mark. It is therefore an established fact that Iran demography has entered the danger zone. Another fact is that once such a situation arises, it is better reversed right away otherwise it will no longer be solvable other than through mass immigration.

the way to answer the problem is to see what made people don't marry and if marry don't have children and have only one children .
not give them subsidiary for having children . and we have enough time to do that , but its a hard work and many of our top level management are not cut for hard work and hard decisions.

 

[drmeson]

instead of empowering the community you want weaken them in those lands they are and concentrate them in one place , very bath move , it is like instead of empowering shia minority in Lebanon in 1980 we had transferred them to Iran .
\now tell me isn't it wrong and nonsense to transfer those people to Iran

You want to empower persecuted minorities? Shia Kurds, devout Azeris and Alevis turks, Iraqi, Lebanese shia, Shia Herati Afghans/Tajiks are not going to convert their countries into Iranian sartaps if you are dreaming of that. Migrants help! this is not even the case of European conservatives making faces over black refugees from Africa. The people we are receiving or may receive in the future are our own peripheral ethnolinguistic Iranians who are not very alien to us. We have good population numbers right now, almost reaching 90 million. But in few years we will need better birth rate. I would not be surprised if Government is already thinking of a plan to place some families here and there. Why even concentrate these people at one place ? we can place few families in an isolated way and make sure they get iranicise and dilute away with the rest of the Iranians around them. Best model will be the British intake of Polish migrants. They came, provided numbers and vanished. Nobody in England calls themselves as Polish anymore.

It's funny btw. My own family moved to Iran from Eastern Anatolia some centuries back. We got Iranicised ourselves, gave out people who served and are still serving Iran to extremes. You would have called us aliens and migrants too.