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Iranian Chill Thread


Russia fired hundreds of CMs and BMs at Ukraine. Ukraine still hasn’t exhausted it’s ABM/ACM supply.

Let’s say Israel hypothetically has only 250 Patriot missiles and 250 Arrow-2/3 missiles.

That means resistance needs to fire at least 100 BMs and CMs to trigger them to waste their interceptors that’s assuming that 2 interceptors fired for every target.
Russia hasn't used large amounts of ballistic missiles in Ukraine, not a good comparison

And 100 missiles is not impossible, how many did Houthis fire at Saudi Arabia? Regardless, that's to entirely deplete their stockpiles, degradation short of entire depletion is useful too. Another tool to weaken them and their defences
Israel has Dolphin subs and frigates that can target assets in Yemen. Although it would be largely symbolic unless they can strike Missile storage depots.
Houthis have 1000km Abu Mahdi ASCMs, risky for Israel to send its ships close to Yemen. What ships does Israel have in the Red Sea near Yemen anyway? With what land attack missiles and how many per ship? Israeli Navy is not US navy that can send dozens of ships across the world with thousands of missiles
 
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It is now clear Israel intends to cut northern Gaza off from the rest of Gaza, and then likely impose a bloody total siege on north Gaza until all resistance is eliminated in that sector.

It’s a smart idea. Gaza city is the heart and soul of Gaza and cutting it off from the tunnels to the south prevents replenishment (or makes it more difficult.

Looks like Israel took a page out of Iranian tactics during the Syrian war. Divide and conquer rather than a frontal or multi axis assault that the Russians did in Ukraine.

Their best hope is to put up stiff armed resistance for as long as possible (aided by tunnels and assistance from fighters in southern Gaza) and hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Indeed.

You are talking about 300+ sorties a day in an area of only 300KM2 with constant surveillance. There is only so much areas to hide and tunnels to build. Russian Air Force cannot even maintain such high sortie operations. If Assad had such an Air Force at this disposable the war wouldn’t have last 1/4 as long.

However, I don’t see a diplomatic break thru coming unless pressure builds up on Israel. This is a chance to annex land for Israel and historically they don’t give up land they take.

I think Hamas originally thought that the sheer amount of hostages would force Israel into negotiations based on its long running policy of being sensitive to hostages. However, it appears that policy has now ended despite Hamas offering hostages in exchange for 6000-10000 Palestinians released.


I said 10-20 dead, but it's purely speculation as Israel does not admit its casualties.

That is more likely number
You are equating Israeli casualties with Hezbollah dead.

Because they are near equal in a match up. The only thing that tilts it in favor of IDF is they have an Air Force and large drone program which allows them constant over watch and close air support. Or else HZ would have a favorable match up 1 v 1 against the IDF based only on ground game.

HZ has been fighting in Syria for a decade. IDF reservists have mostly been playing traffic cop and border patrol. No war fighting experience.
 
Russia fired hundreds of CMs and BMs at Ukraine. Ukraine still hasn’t exhausted it’s ABM/ACM supply.
That's cause they've gotten supply from a dozen post-soviet countries. Fortunately, the supply of Arrow 2/3 is very limited, and only Patriots can really be replenished for some time. Lot's of US-N SAMs also exist as well.
 
Russia hasn't used large amounts of ballistic missiles in Ukraine, not a good comparison

Have you been watching the same war as me? Russia has been pulverizing Ukraine.

It’s been nearly 2 years. Russia has fired hundreds of BMs/CMs into Ukraine and over 1000+ S-131/136. All these use interceptor missile.

The Kiyv attack alone they fired 30+ of Iskander/Kinzhal and CMs alone.


And 100 missiles is not impossible, how many did Houthis fire at Saudi Arabia?

They mostly fired CMs as BM is harder to procure and manufacture.

Regardless, that's to entirely deplete their stockpiles, degradation short of entire depletion is useful too. Another tool to weaken them and their defences.

For what exactly? Let’s say their air defenses (non-Iron dome) are weakened. Hamas cannot take advantage of this.

Weakening air defenses if HZ or Iran don’t join, won’t serve to stop Israeli occupation of Gaza.

Houthis have 1000km Abu Mahdi ASCMs,

First learn the seeker on Abu Mahdi before you throw random numbers out. Anything beyond short range is GLNSS/GPS guidance. Which means Houthi’s need the exact real time coordinates of the Israeli ship. Hence why Abu Mahdi is referred to as a LACM, it’s more suitable to attack an already known fixed land target rather than a moving object which requires constant ISR.

risky for Israel to send its ships close to Yemen. What ships does Israel have in the Red Sea near Yemen anyway?

With what land attack missiles and how many per ship?

Popeye missile with 200KM range and Popeye-LR with reported 1200KM range.

They can also do aerial bombardment using stand off munitions like they do in Syria. I’m sure the US would be glad to refuel their F-16’s in the air.

Israeli Navy is not US navy that can send dozens of ships across the world with thousands of missiles

You don’t need “dozens” of ships to respond. It’s not like Houthi’s leveled Tel Aviv they fired one missile that did zero damage. By your logic Israel should have leveled all of Lebanon due to HZ attacks.

“All across the world”, Sir go look at a map. Israel -> Red Sea via Panama Canal. Literally their backyard.

You act like they have to strike Cuba.

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Russia fired hundreds of CMs and BMs at Ukraine. Ukraine still hasn’t exhausted it’s ABM/ACM supply.

Let’s say Israel hypothetically has only 250 Patriot missiles and 250 Arrow-2/3 missiles.

That means resistance needs to fire at least 100 BMs and CMs to trigger them to waste their interceptors that’s assuming that 2 interceptors fired for every target.

Me do not think that it is important how much missiles the patriot and the Arrow launchers have. It is more important how much missiles the Iron Dome has left. Cause if the Iron Dome is gone cause short of missiles, then drones can attack Patriot and Arrow launchers.
 
That's cause they've gotten supply from a dozen post-soviet countries. Fortunately, the supply of Arrow 2/3 is very limited, and only Patriots can really be replenished for some time. Lot's of US-N SAMs also exist as well.

You forget US Aegis destroyers and Patriot missiles that US have deployed + Jordan + Egypt has requested more. Highly unlikely Saudi Arabia will let anything fly thru its territory.

Which makes my point, the current firing rate by Axis is way to low to put significant strain on the Israeli anti missile shield.

Israel is very small territory to cover vs Ukraine or Iran, so it’s incredibly dense radar saturation which is helpful since these air defenses don’t have much range. Even THAAD only has a range of less than 200KM and patriot/arrow-2 has less at 90KM. It’s Arrow-3 that has the real range of 2400KM.
 

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