Iranian Chill Thread

[HGV]

Iraqi PMUs: Attacking the bases of the world superpower in Iraq and Syria.

HZ: Hey we hit a satellite dish for 9th time and lost 3 guys.

Much easier for PMU to hit a US base without Iron Dome in their own territory than for Hezbollah to hit an abandoned military base protected by drones and Iron Dome

Clearly HZ is trying to descalate downward on target selection and Israel is not cooperating. Usually in these cases (like in the beginning when IDF was scared and shocked) Israel would just blindly shell random patches of dirt. Now they are bombing bases, teams, tunnels, buildings.

HZ has to match the escalation ladder or go higher or it’s Syria all over again.

Problem is Lebanon society and dysfunctional government has tied up their hands. The Beruit explosion was the cherry on top. Some gas tankers from Iran couldn’t change the terrible economic reality on the ground in Lebanon. Sunnis there have zero love for Palestine and even less for HZ. They want Saudi money and Hariri clan back in power.

Hezbollah should not escalate until Israel shows its hand in Gaza. That will create more favourable domestic conditions within Lebanon (mass outrage at Israel) for escalation

Christians usually side with HZ because they know Sunnis would chop them up if they get the chance to seize power.

That's not fully true, Lebanese Christians and their militias (Maronites and LF) also lead the opposition to Hezbollah

 

[Blue In Green]

Much easier for PMU to hit a US base without Iron Dome in their own territory than for Hezbollah to hit an abandoned military base protected by drones and Iron Dome

Hezbollah should not escalate until Israel shows its hand in Gaza. That will create more favourable domestic conditions within Lebanon (mass outrage at Israel) for escalation

That's not fully true, Lebanese Christians and their militias (Maronites and LF) also lead the opposition to Hezbollah

Will the Lebanese populace really want to put their entire nation up for potential destruction for the sake of Gaza and Palestine though? TheImmortal's assessment of Lebanon is correct, it's a domestic political nightmare. And Israel cannot win against Hezbollah conventionally so they're threatening Lebanon with the same treatment Gaza has received.

Even if outrage for Israel's inhumane atrocities continues to boil, many will still not want to cross that bridge if it means the obliteration (likely) of their own homes and neighborhoods.

That explosion in Beirut still is fresh in the hearts of most Lebanese...

 

[TheSolution]

Can you point out a tactical ballistic missile (TBM) that is better than Iskander-M and its air-launched Kinzhal derivative on a technical level?

View attachment 965321

Russia’s Use Of Iskander Ballistic Missiles In Ukraine Exposes Secret Decoy Capability

The novel decoy, ejected from the base of the missile, is designed to confuse hostile radar and interceptor missiles.

www.thedrive.com

Russia came up with a TBM design with flight characteristics and features that were assumed to be sufficient to defeat any air defense system in use.

But US have (quietly and surely) significantly improved some of its Patriot system(s) to detect, track, and intercept increasingly sophisticated threats. Russian decoys could also be distinguished from real payload in the process. The outcome is for all to see in Kyiv. Russian forces would have reduced Kyiv to rubble otherwise given the scale and volume of its attacks on this city.

Poland will receive even more advanced Patriot systems than variants given to Ukraine to protect Kyiv.

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American Trident II D5 is the most reliable and one of the most advanced ICBM in the world:

191 successful flight tests

Up to 14 MaRV with sophisticated decoys (MiRV configuration)

Burst-Height compensating fuze to produce shockwaves that can destroy deeply buried targets among others.

Incredible speed.

US is second to none in rocket science, bro. If I have to point out this fact to somebody than it is shocking.

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I do not think that American defenses are infallible. This is not realistic assumption. But I have noticed that US is producing better air defense systems than any competitor in the world. These systems began to show their worth and value in conflicts since 2003 but not many were paying much attention or downplayed American advances in this spectrum of warfare.

Now many are surprised that US have produced and fielded such capable air defense systems.

Perhaps some have better conventional wisdom and judgement than others.

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US did not feel the need to build significant defenses in an Iraqi air
base for Operation Inherent Resolve to counter ISIL movement in the region. It is not possible to conceal something like a Patriot system from prying eyes.

Radar systems is another matter. American surveillance assets provided sufficient early warning to American troops to take cover in Ayn al-Asad airbase when Iranian forces were preparing to launch ballistic missilesat it. There would have been scores of casaulties otherwise. Ayn al-Asad airbase have underground shelters.

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Well, anything is possible in war. THAAD system can be knocked out with excellent attack plan but this remains to be seen and the fact that where a THAAD system is deployed and it is linked to other defenses in the sector and other factors.

Defeat of a system does not suggest that US is done and dusted in war. US have so many options on the table to conduct war on a big scale and destroy the subject in war as it has shown repeatedly in history.


WE can see a supersonic cruise missile that is launched from a land and it is swiftly intercepted by a salvo shot. The first interceptor is good enough to produce the kill and the second interceptors engage debris.

This deserves its own thread for a discussion tbh.

If the US is intercepting QBMs and distinguishing decoys quite confidently, then perhaps saturation attacks and HGV are the only reliable way to penetrate advanced BMDs.

 

[HGV]

Will the Lebanese populace really want to put their entire nation up for potential destruction for the sake of Gaza and Palestine though?

We already see huge marches in south Lebanon to Beirut in support of Palestinians. Right now probably not but that's why I say Hezbollah should wait for the ground invasion, that could anger and unite the Arab populations to a sufficient level. But maybe not. Ultimately, Hezbollah should stay out of this war if possible. But if the possibility of armed resistance in Gaza faces certain threat, it's a difficult problem.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717629777777979596

 

[ReasonableStar75]

Will the Lebanese populace really want to put their entire nation up for potential destruction for the sake of Gaza and Palestine though? TheImmortal's assessment of Lebanon is correct, it's a domestic political nightmare. And Israel cannot win against Hezbollah conventionally so they're threatening Lebanon with the same treatment Gaza has received.

Even if outrage for Israel's inhumane atrocities continues to boil, many will still not want to cross that bridge if it means the obliteration (likely) of their own homes and neighborhoods.

That explosion in Beirut still is fresh in the hearts of most Lebanese...

Man i don t think there is a return path, right now. Iran has officially said that in the UN, They are not going to be an spectator.

To be honest, i don t think liberal lebanese opinion is important for any player right now. Palestine is far more important, right now.

There is a truth people here cannot ignore, if Gaza is gone, Palestine is gone with them.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717541036854247928

 

[SalarHack]

It is fairly evident as ground realities are setting in that HezbAllah is on the right track. As per Shi'a mythology and ethos, each martyred member will feed the fervor for more self-sacrifice and strength, until Isra"el" is obliterated. My mathematical assessment is that HezbAllah will have achieved optimal levels of motivation to defeat Isra"el" once it has achieved 100,000 fighters martyred. It is all part of an ingenious plan that our highly competent Sepah has contrived in Tehran.

As for American deployment in the region, it is evident that 900 servicemen deployed today are merely for setting up heavy weapons systems in the region. As of now, the PMU have responded with devastating and earth-shaking bombardments of American positions in Iraq and Syria, amounting to 30+ injuries and 1 death. This is success, and I assess that it is part of an overarching systemic plan that Iran is using to seize battlefield momentum and provoke America to devote enough of a force, I would wager 200,000 soldiers, in the region. It is with such an enemy force that our brave soldiers and proxies can achieve martyrdom.

 

[TheImmortal]

I disagree about the ease of Iranian missile salvos.
1) Al-Asad attack involved 11-16 BMs launched in two salvos several hours apart and required moving mobile TELs into position hours (maybe days) in advance (these were immediately detected by the US)

“immediately” detected by US. Yes, because that was the intention. The sanitation worker sweeping the streets in Khermanshahr knew the missiles were getting ready. Iran even informed Iraq hours before launch so no Iraqi casualties would occur. US was leaking Iran’s intentions days in advance. Al-Assad was a dual use base. Iranian teams were purposely using unsecure communications to be picked up by SIGNIT. So redneck Bob sitting in Centcom could tell everyone or is he now known as Barbara in the LBTQ+minusdivide* of the US military?

Iran gave as much warning as it could. The entire Al-Assad was a face saving operation. It was lame. Military Broadway theater. Iran was prepared for US troops to be killed, even tho it was intentionally avoiding the major bunkers from the Iraq-Iran war era.

If intention was covert and bloodshed. Then iran would have used its many silos that have existed years before Missile cities to fire that 15-20 missiles within mins of the assassination.

Come on now.

You have to realize there are 50+ single launch silos 24/7 ready with Sejil and various S-3’s derivatives to fire? This was unveiled by Iran years ago and origins go back to early 2000’s. Originally they housed silo ready S-3’s. A loaded S-3 can be filled for weeks before it has to emptied due to corrosive effects of fuel. And that has been remedied by the new gel fuel.

Add in the buried canisters, scattered across the military restricted deserts of Iran. These can stay buried for years without any need for major maintenance. Iran didn’t invent this shiny wheel, US actually built this design way back in the Cold War idk 70’s? Never took off since they had enough nukes to cleanse this earth several hundred times over.

2) In the Iranian war games, Iran also spends hours moving the TELs into position and preparing them for launch

Incorrect. Outdated information.

Ghadr (liquid fuel) has set up time of 30 mins assuming TEL launch. All the latest liquid missiles no longer need several hours set up time or large crew. This was remedied over 10 years ago under Tehrani Moghaddam.

Solid fuel even shorter launch time since there is no fueling cycle needed and an operates using a much smaller crew.

Comparing a war game with real time war scenario is incorrect on many levels. They are not testing how fast can you fire a missile. They are deterrence messages and chances for all crew teams to get live fire exercise repetition vs simulation. Plus heads of military have to arrive. It’s a show.

Just like when US flies it’s old dinosaur B-52 blimps in PG and thinks anyone gets scared of these anymore.

3) The 'magazine' missile launch system clearly also takes a long time to fully load and likely cannot launch more than 1 missile / minute (for a maximum of 5 then it has to be reloaded again, which likely takes hours)

Incorrect - there are at least 5 missile cities. Plus smaller “villages”.

OSINT rendering:

As for reload time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1333110762773114882

So let’s recap:

1 missile city has let say 5 launch pits with blast proof chamber and cover.

Each wagon carries at least 4 missiles (video confirmed) with preloaded target data and fuel. Let say it takes 5 mins to load from wagon into launch pit + close + fire.

That means missile city should be able to fire its initial first load of 25 missiles in less than 30 mins (20 mins but adding margin of error yada yada) before wagon(s) goes back to storage side of the base to reload with another set of 4 missiles + fuel and targeting info (teams are doing this as the other teams fire - it’s like F1 pit stops but with missiles!).

Multiple that by 5 cities. That’s 125 missiles just from the cities and their initial long preassembled 1st volley, but hell let’s say 100 missiles because these damn “eye-ranians” can’t be that smart right? That’s what US bumpkins think.

• So with a 25% penalty: 100 missiles in 20-30 mins per [remaining] missile City reload assuming only 5 cities with 5 pits+4 wagon exist. Very conservative estimation - subtracted 25 missiles to make you happy.
• Plus Iran’s decades old always prepared single chamber silos lets say another 25 missiles there. 25 silos - 1 launch each in 20 mins. Very small number of silos for such a large country (but hey these are a bunch of dumb camel riders right?)
• Irans buried missile canisters in the desert let’s say again only 50 because these Iranians can’t even build construction trucks and excavators since they came from the desert. They used their hands to dig these missiles into the dirt, only managed 50 before they got distracted by staring at a glowing object in the sky — they realized later it was the sun. Classic Iranians.
• Now let’s add every single one of Iran’s missile storage bases that have short notice ready TELs with coordinates.

I’ll add another only a mere 50 TEL launches across the entire country of Iran in 20-30 min period.

NOTE: USA super duper CIA intelligence once said Iran has less than 100 TELS in existence. Us dumb brown people can’t possibly make military launch trucks. We can only make kaboob and smoke hookah baba Jan!

But sadly out of our only 100TELS gifted to us by aliens….50 broke down because we didn’t know you had to put oil in engine to make it run! Silly us!

P.S. I won’t even count the TELs that carry two missiles because those are clearly mock ups. Don’t tell anyone they are made of bastani sonati.

Ladies and gentlemen…..Drumroll please!

Total BMs launched by Iranian forces in a 30 minute period if they were missing those valuable things called chromosomes that Redneck Bob and Rabbi Shalom say we don’t have: 225 Ballistic missiles.

Yeah I’m sure Israel will be fine. Iron pancake maker will save the day.

 

[SalarHack]

We already see huge marches in south Lebanon to Beirut in support of Palestinians. Right now probably not but that's why I say Hezbollah should wait for the ground invasion, that could anger and unite the Arab populations to a sufficient level. But maybe not. Ultimately, Hezbollah should stay out of this war if possible. But if the possibility of armed resistance in Gaza faces certain threat, it's a difficult problem.

HezbAllah, please. It is of utmost importance that one utilize the right title for units on the battlefield. It not only displays accuracy and knowledge, but it pays the due respect. After all, this translates to "The Party of God", and not capitalizing the "A" in Allah is disrespectful to Allah, and using the Iranian-only "ollah" is pushing the false Zionist narrative that said party is entirely beholden to Iran.

 

[Blue In Green]

Man i don t think there is a return path, right now. Iran has officially said that in the UN, They are not going to be an spectator.

To be honest, i don t think liberal lebanese opinion is important for any player right now. Palestine is far more important, right now.

There is a truth people here cannot ignore, if Gaza is gone, Palestine is gone with them.

I agree that the conflict will escalate but Iran: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, Houthis, Kata-ib Hezbollah and other resistance forces have to be all-in or face a potential reality in which their positions around the region will be in a much worse shape than they were just a couple months ago.

Granted all of this just talk on a forum. The situation is going to unfold however it unfolds.

 

[Stryker1982]

I disagree about the ease of Iranian missile salvos.

1) Al-Asad attack involved 11-16 BMs launched in two salvos several hours apart and required moving mobile TELs into position hours (maybe days) in advance (these were immediately detected by the US)
2) In the Iranian war games, Iran also spends hours moving the TELs into position and preparing them for launch
3) The 'magazine' missile launch system clearly also takes a long time to fully load and likely cannot launch more than 1 missile / minute (for a maximum of 5 then it has to be reloaded again, which likely takes hours)

Everything here is wrong bro.

1) They literally used the same launch site outside of Kermanshah that they've used several times before when attacking PJAK or ISIS during those missile launches. Their is no intention of hiding anything. Missiles can be launched from anywhere, or direct from silo ports with complete surprise.

2) Those are wargames, not real operations, camera crews need to setup, IMA media was there filming scenic video shots, the heads of all the IRGC branch came to the location to watch. The wargames are on a scheduled date and time. Obviously their will be delays in this regard...come on now .

3) Have you considered their are more than 1 rail cart? While 1 is being fired, another 2 or 3 are being loaded to create a non-stop carousel of launching and loading?

 

[Mehdipersian]

HezbAllah, please. It is of utmost importance that one utilize the right title for units on the battlefield. It not only displays accuracy and knowledge, but it pays the due respect. After all, this translates to "The Party of God", and not capitalizing the "A" in Allah is disrespectful to Allah, and using the Iranian-only "ollah" is pushing the false Zionist narrative that said party is entirely beholden to Iran.

So you don't know how to pronounce Hezbollah? you are not a good troll.this show you are not an Iranian or an Arab.

A lesson for you:

It's Two word :

الله+حزب
Hezb+allah

But when they are placed next to each other," A" is not read and they are connected with " o"

حزب الله
Hezbollah

 

[SalarHack]

So you don't know how to pronounce Hezbollah? you are not a good troll.this show you are not an Iranian or an Arab.

A lesson for you:

It's Two word :

الله+حزب
Hezb+allah

But when they are placed next to each other," A" is not read and they are connected with " o"

حزب الله
Hezbollah

This is a fallacious argument in the first instance, and further more spurious when one considers that this is the pathetic vessel by which you seek to demonstrate your "intelligence".

I am fluent in Persian, Arabic, and English. While it is indeed two words, the "o" when it is conjoined is mainly relegated to the Persian pronunciation of conjoined words which contain "of God". Similarly, "o" instead of the Arabic "u" "i" (ullah, illah) can be witnessed in terms such as "seyedolshohada", "hojatoleslam" and "tajolmoluk", all transliterations of Persian variations on Arabic words.

Since HezbAllah is a nationalistic, primarily Arab organization, it naturally follows that if one respects the Lebanese, they pronounce and spell it with the correct, Arabic variation. "Hezb" even "Hizb" + "Allah". Using the Persian pronunciation/spelling is an entirely Western concoction which reveals underneath it a current of misinformation and manipulative technique by which they seek to push forth the argument that HezbAllah is an entirely Iranian creation and is unbreakably beholden to the whims of AyatAllah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, marja-al-taqlid.

You betray both your lack of familiarity with Persian and Arabic, your credulity to fall for a Western scheme, and why you have a reaction score of -4.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717629777777979596

Romania 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717643642687328573