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Iranian Chill Thread

Hezbollah should try to take Sheeba Farms, Syrian NDF + Republican Guard should take back Golan Heights. Even UN acknowledges Golan belongs to Syria. Right now Israel is stretched and in chaos, now is the time to increase pressure.

If I were Houthi’s I’d fire cruise missiles thru Saudi desert into Israel.

Now is the time to increase the pressure. All chips on the table. Settle scores and old dues from Israeli damage inflicted in last 10 years on Iran and HZ.

Having Iraqi groups return the favor for Imam Ali base air attacks and Iraq sabotage attacks by firing missiles into Golan from Iraq/Syria.

Sitting around and giving speeches and words of encouragement is a joke.

Shame Solemani isn’t alive. Rahbar would listen to him.

I'm trying to ascertain whether or not Iran has been given an ultimatum through back-channels that any direct involvement of IRGC will see the possibility of a nuclear strike heightened/Air-strikes against nuclear facilities/more operations against assets in Syria etc., or if they're playing their cards close to their chest in a semi-pragmatic way. Maybe the Americans have said to Iran directly that if you are openly involved then we will step-in and start our own military operations against you; but simply allowing Hamas and Hezbollah to take all the pressure whilst claiming some sort of "victory" when the dust settles is not a good look. Sentiments will change later down the road regardless of the amount of support Iran has given since they never "joined" in so to say although we all know that's not true.

Honestly I'm at a loss, does Iran throw itself headlong into this war and hope for the best or does it just sit and watch from the sidelines, preserving its own integrity...

You are correct Immortal, now is the time to settle the score if they want to do that.
 
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Aged like fine Milk
 
Apparently the Palestinians were able to send more troops into Israel overnight to support their remaining troops inside Israel, and these new troops have been engaged in tough battles with IDF inside Israel, with many victories!

Bibi boasted that the 'first stage' of eliminating all Palestinians inside Israel had been completed, but this is far from reality. Instead, the Palestinian groups are reaching even further inside 'Israel' more than 24 hours after their initial attack!

Hezbollah has also entered the conflict (on a limited level for now), conducting precision strikes against Israeli radar sites in the occupied Sheeba Farms. Israel destroyed the tent Hezbollah had erected inside Israeli-controlled territory, but it was empty and Hezbollah has put a new tent up in its place already!

This is what is left of the Sderot police HQ after the battles there yesterday:

 
I'm trying to ascertain whether or not Iran has been given an ultimatum through back-channels that any direct involvement of IRGC will see the possibility of a nuclear strike heightened,

You do realize IRGC has a chemical/biological weapons program? They aren’t defenseless. Even if they cannot make Diomna meltdown, there are other ways to ensure MAD. Although I highly doubt Israel would nuke Iran for joining the war. Israel conducted 500+ airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure and probably hundreds more on arms shipments to Lebanon. Assassinated multiple generals or high ranking officers and also killed Father of Nuclear [weapons] Program.

There is a long list of greivances before they can resort to nukes. If BiBi gives the command, I doubt anyone in IDF brass would follow the command. They would be hanged at the Hauge for this. It would be the end of Israel.

The biggest reason I see them not acting is that Jericho missiles being launched at Iran’s nuclear sites. Our Ballistic Missile Shield is in its infancy so likely many of those missiles will hit our open above surface nuclear sites like Natanz, Arak, and others.
 
You do realize IRGC has a chemical/biological weapons program? They aren’t defenseless. Even if they cannot make Diomna meltdown, there are other ways to ensure MAD. Although I highly doubt Israel would nuke Iran for joining the war. Israel conducted 500+ airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure and probably hundreds more on arms shipments to Lebanon. Assassinated multiple generals or high ranking officers and also killed Father of Nuclear [weapons] Program.

The biggest reason I see them not acting is that Jericho missiles being launched at Iran’s nuclear sites. Our Ballistic Missile Shield is in its infancy so likely many of those missiles will hit our open above surface nuclear sites like Natanz, Arak, and others.
Yesterday you said all IRGC generals in Syria should start hiding and Iran should prepare for a response, today you want Iran / the resistance axis to declare all out war against Israel?

That war must be entered into when the timing makes sense for Iran, not to support Hamas when it decides to attack Israel.

Iran doesn't have known chemical/biological warheads, even Khomeini forbade these in the 80s. It would be prudent for Iran to reconsider this policy before entering into any direct engagement with Israel.
 
I'm trying to ascertain whether or not Iran has been given an ultimatum through back-channels that any direct involvement of IRGC will see the possibility of a nuclear strike heightened/Air-strikes against nuclear facilities/more operations against assets in Syria etc., or if they're playing their cards close to their chest in a semi-pragmatic way. Maybe the Americans have said to Iran directly that if you are openly involved then we will step-in and start our own military operations against you; but simply allowing Hamas and Hezbollah to take all the pressure whilst claiming some sort of "victory" when the dust settles is not a good look. Sentiments will change later down the road regardless of the amount of support Iran has given since they never "joined" in so to say although we all know that's not true.

Honestly I'm at a loss, does Iran throw itself headlong into this war and hope for the best or does it just sit and watch from the sidelines, preserving its own integrity...

You are correct Immortal, now is the time to settle the score if they want to do that.
Iran has almost certainly been asked to help manage this. This is where Iran’s asymmetric geopolitical strategy comes into play as I’ve mentioned before.


Ground war will start in coming days more than likely. I hope Hamas has a lot of ATGM in storage.

I’d like to see how this ground war would unfold given the stupendous number of POWs Hamas has extracted. As of now I see nothing more than a cosmetic (possibly bloody) incursion of little strategic value . Also let’s not forget that Hamas isn’t toothless and Gaza is a almost certainly a trap (I mentioned before). I predict any incursion will be highly costly for Zionia if not cosmetic. I don’t believe anything of strategic value will for Zionia.
 
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In case anyone is under any doubt of the intentions of this Iran-obsessed Tork (I cropped the screenshot for obvious reasons):
Tork.png
 
Yesterday you said all IRGC generals in Syria should start hiding and Iran should prepare for a response, today you want Iran / the resistance axis to declare all out war against Israel?

At the time I said that the Hamas attack was in its infancy. This is not a mere flare up. This is all our war. And yes IRGC officers should be in safe locations as hanging around known command centers and bases is risky.

Just this year Israel Mossad assassinated an high ranking Iranian military via IED in Damascus. Add that to 500+ strikes they boast about and you can see waiting longer is just asborbing more damage. Now is the time for deterrence and the offensive.

I said this about Russia in 2014, I told you guys there will be day when Russia is made weak by West and everyone laughed. Saying how strong Putin was and great the Russian military is and that NATO wouldn’t approach Russian borders.

Well look what happened
That war must be entered into when the timing makes sense for Iran, not to support Hamas when it decides to attack Israel.

You do realize that plan was designed by Iran (likely Solemani) right?. In 75 years of military conflict the Arabs have never devised such a successful large scale military operation against a Western power. And you think that Hamas managed to crack the code all by themselves?

If you want to wait for the “perfect” timing you will be waiting for a long time. No such thing as perfect timing. Iran is at its peak military power in 40 years. The axis is the strongest it’s been since its creation.

Iran doesn't have known chemical/biological warheads, even Khomeini forbade these in the 80s. It would be prudent for Iran to reconsider this policy before entering into any direct engagement with Israel.

I’m not going to argue with you. They do have a program. It was started in the 90’s when Iran believed that Saddam would test his first nuke by 1998. Hence why Iran started its nuclear weapons program. It was to offset Saddam’s. The Nuclear program was “shelved” in 2003 once he was invaded and Iran’s program was exposed. Although you can find articles going back into the 90’s talking about Iran’s nuclear weapons program so it was the worst kept secret in the world.

It is quite easy to develop chemical warheads and have 10+ ready for revenge. Biological is also easy for Iran as it has one of the most advanced medical engineering capabilities in the Middle East. Crafting old viruses are all within its capabilities.

There is a reason why Russia and US still have their biological programs. China is also developing there’s as well. It’s easy to mask them as “medical research” institutes and research laboratories. But all that data gets fed to the military.
 
At the time I said that the Hamas attack was in its infancy. This is not a mere flare up. This is all our war. And yes IRGC officers should be in safe locations as hanging around known command centers and bases is risky.

Just this year Israel Mossad assassinated an high ranking Iranian military via IED in Damascus. Add that to 500+ strikes they boast about and you can see waiting longer is just asborbing more damage. Now is the time for deterrence and the offensive.

I said this about Russia in 2014, I told you guys there will be day when Russia is made weak by West and everyone laughed. Saying how strong Putin was and great the Russian military is and that NATO wouldn’t approach Russian borders.

Well look what happened


You do realize that plan was designed by Iran (likely Solemani) right?. In 75 years of military conflict the Arabs have never devised such a successful large scale military operation against a Western power. And you think that Hamas managed to crack the code all by themselves?

If you want to wait for the “perfect” timing you will be waiting for a long time. No such thing as perfect timing. Iran is at its peak military power in 40 years. The axis is the strongest it’s been since its creation.



I’m not going to argue with you. They do have a program. It was started in the 90’s when Iran believed that Saddam would test his first nuke by 1998. Hence why Iran started its nuclear weapons program. It was to offset Saddam’s. The Nuclear program was “shelved” in 2003 once he was invaded and Iran’s program was exposed. Although you can find articles going back into the 90’s talking about Iran’s nuclear weapons program so it was the worst kept secret in the world.

It is quite easy to develop chemical warheads and have 10+ ready for revenge. Biological is also easy for Iran as it has one of the most advanced medical engineering capabilities in the Middle East. Crafting old viruses are all within its capabilities.

There is a reason why Russia and US still have their biological programs. China is also developing there’s as well. It’s easy to mask them as “medical research” institutes and research laboratories. But all that data gets fed to the military.
Correct!
 
I’m not going to argue with you. They do have a program. It was started in the 90’s when Iran believed that Saddam would test his first nuke by 1998. Hence why Iran started its nuclear weapons program. It was to offset Saddam’s. The Nuclear program was “shelved” in 2003 once he was invaded and Iran’s program was exposed. Although you can find articles going back into the 90’s talking about Iran’s nuclear weapons program so it was the worst kept secret in the world.

It is quite easy to develop chemical warheads and have 10+ ready for revenge. Biological is also easy for Iran as it has one of the most advanced medical engineering capabilities in the Middle East. Crafting old viruses are all within its capabilities.

There is a reason why Russia and US still have their biological programs. China is also developing there’s as well. It’s easy to mask them as “medical research” institutes and research laboratories. But all that data gets fed to the military.
I don't dispute Iran has the capacity to develop such weapons, just that there is no evidence Iran has done so. The point of such weapons would be to deter Israeli escalation to nuclear warheads (we can debate the likely effectiveness of that separately), but that only works if Israel believes Iran actually has - and is willing to use - those weapons. Currently, I do not believe that is the case.

In any event, 10 BMs tipped with chemical warheads will not create anywhere near the impact of even one nuclear warhead, so those numbers will need to be adjusted upwards, dramatically.
 
Yesterday you said all IRGC generals in Syria should start hiding and Iran should prepare for a response, today you want Iran / the resistance axis to declare all out war against Israel?

That war must be entered into when the timing makes sense for Iran, not to support Hamas when it decides to attack Israel.

Iran doesn't have known chemical/biological warheads, even Khomeini forbade these in the 80s. It would be prudent for Iran to reconsider this policy before entering into any direct engagement with Israel.
Iran doesn't have known chemical/biological warheads, even Khomeini forbade these in the 80s. It would be prudent for Iran to reconsider this policy before entering into any direct engagement with Israel
Iran did have a Nuclear Weapon program back 90s-2003, it has been acknowledge by Iran itself and stopped since and verified through UN/IAEA. You thought Iran was letting Saddam have a nuke? He would surely have used it against Iran since he couldn't rely on his incapable army to make a single gain in the region.
 
I’d like to see how this ground war would unfold given the stupendous number of POWs Hamas has extracted. As of now I see nothing more than a cosmetic (possibly bloody) incursion of little strategic vale. Also let’s not forget that Hamas isn’t toothless and Gaza is an almost certainly a trap (I mentioned before). I predict any incursion will be highly costly for Zionia if not cosmetic. I don’t believe anything of strategic value will for Zionia.

I didn’t say the ground war would be easy or even successful just necessary for Israel to establish dominance again. If you’re calling up 100K+ soldiers and pulling reservists from bases all over the world back home (5K from Greece yesterday) then you aren’t doing it just to walk around your own cities.

Hamas can make it brutal, just look at what a rag tag group of militants did in East Ghouta suburb of Damascus for 5+ years.
 
I don't dispute Iran has the capacity to develop such weapons, just that there is no evidence Iran has done so. The point of such weapons would be to deter Israeli escalation to nuclear warheads (we can debate the likely effectiveness of that separately), but that only works if Israel believes Iran actually has - and is willing to use - those weapons. Currently, I do not believe that is the case.

In any event, 10 BMs tipped with chemical warheads will not create anywhere near the impact of even one nuclear warhead, so those numbers will need to be adjusted upwards, dramatically.
Indisputably incorrect. Add to that lack of analysis and ability to construct a correct analysis through mental experimentation. It’s clear as day Iran has had a capacity to CONSTRUCT devices for at least two decades.
 
Indisputably incorrect.
How so?
Add to that lack of analysis and ability to construct a correct analysis through mental experimentation. It’s clear as day Iran has had a capacity to CONSTRUCT devices for at least two decades.
I refer you to the first line of my prior post: "I don't dispute Iran has the capacity to develop such weapons".
 

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