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Iranian Chill Thread

Here it's not so much a question of reactivity vs proactivity as it is one of rationality vs irrationality.

Initiating inter-state conflict against a neighbor including the Baku regime, makes no sense for Iran. Iran should try to coopt actors such as these where possible, by exploiting every potential for cooperation on dossiers of mutual benefit, while at the same time building her defenses and countering unconventional provocation through unconventional instruments of power.

This is very much a proactive policy. Sitting idle and then suddenly deciding to march troops across the Aras would be crudely reactive-impulsive on the other hand.



Well, this development actually means Turkey backed down, not the other way around. Erdogan clearly declared that if Armenia obstructs the Zangezur corridor in breach of the 2020 ceasefire agreement, then Ankara will consider using the Iranian route as an alternative - not military occupation of Armenian lands.

In other terms, they seem to be conforming to Iran's red line and to accept handing Iran full control over their connection to Nakhjavan.



Iran just called the small fish's bluff on Zangezur. This is what happened.

Agreed.

Do you think Turkey had to reign in Aliyev on this matter or did Azerbaijan act more independently in their decision to seemingly yield to Iranian concerns?
 
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Agreed.

Do you think Turkey had to reign in Aliyev on this matter or did Azerbaijan act more independently in their decision to seemingly yield to Iranian concerns?

No idea. A statement came from Erdogan, not sure whether equivalent statements were issued by Baku officials but obviously the latter joined in on the project as we can see from the clips you shared.

Of course certain extra-regional or colonial powers will now try to sabotage this development, but Ankara theoretically has the potential to act independently enough in its relations with Iran, as seen on several occasions in the past. To the regime in Baku this is not only about linking to its exclave of Nakhjavan, it's also about establishing a land corridor to Turkey as part of a broader connection between China and Europe. Why would the Aliyev want to defy Turkey and go it alone?

At the end of the day, there's nothing much either of them can do. If they occupy Zangezur, which legally belongs to Armenia, Iran will react and they understand full well that two or three "unfortunate" explosions are enough to jeopardize a trade corridor. Security is the paramount precondition to the viability of any such project, and China is not going to use an insecure road to transfer its merchandise.

So short of waging war on Iran, which they aren't mad enough to try, they are checkmated as it stands on this matter. Hence the opportunity for Iran to offer them some way out of their dilemma in exchange for a reciprocal concession, and apparently this is what Iran did. Wisely so.

I'd recommend viewing the video discussion I linked to in my above comment if you have time and interest. Many instructive aspects are evoked. I may differ on one or two specific assessments made, but other than that it's a worthwhile listen which expands upon what I alluded to.
 
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No idea. An announcement came from Erdogan, not sure whether equivalent statements were issued by Baku officials but obviously the latter joined in on the project as we can see from the clips you shared.

Of course certain extra-regional or colonial powers will now try to sabotage this arrangement, but Ankara theoretically has the potential to act independently enough in its relations with Iran, as seen on several occasions in the past. To the regime in Baku, this is not only about linking to its exclave of Nakhjavan, it's also about establishing a land corridor to Turkey as part of a broader connection between China and Europe. I doubt the Aliyev regime will defy Turkey on this and go it alone.

At the end of the day, there's nothing much either of them can do. If they occupy Zangezur, which legally belongs to Armenia, Iran will react and they understand full well that two or three "unfortunate" explosions are enough to jeopardize a transportation corridor. Security is the paramount precondition to the viability of any such project, and China is not going to use an insecure road to transfer its goods.

So short of waging war on Iran, which they aren't mad enough to try, they are checkmated as it stands on this matter.

I'd recommend viewing the video discussion I linked to in my above comment if you have time and interest. Many interesting aspects are evoked. I may differ on one or two specific assessments made, but other than that it's a worthwile listen which sheds ample light on what I alluded to.

Thank you, I will check them out!
 
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Saw a video from Neutrino's channel that almost looked like Gaza guys smuggled a whole squad into Israel. Damn...

Insane;

1696653759975.png


In all the (few) years I've been following military affairs in my life, probably the first time I can recall something of this magnitude occurring. Whole squads have infiltrated Israel.
 
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Saw a video from Neutrino's channel that almost looked like Gaza guys smuggled a whole squad into Israel. Damn...

Insane;

View attachment 958858

In all the (few) years I've been following military affairs in my life, probably the first time I can recall something of this magnitude occurring. Whole squads have infiltrated Israel.
The Israeli Gov knows how vulnerable it is, it is surrounded by a sea of wolves that will strike at the moment they see weakness. If they decided to conventionally attack Iran (which they won't), that weakness will be opened.
 
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The Israeli Gov knows how vulnerable it is, it is surrounded by a sea of wolves that will strike at the moment they see weakness. If they decided to conventionally attack Iran (which they won't), that weakness will be opened.
From pics I've seen, it's a slaughter that is ongoing.

100% a new war will start again.
 
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Saw a video from Neutrino's channel that almost looked like Gaza guys smuggled a whole squad into Israel. Damn...

Insane;

View attachment 958858

In all the (few) years I've been following military affairs in my life, probably the first time I can recall something of this magnitude occurring. Whole squads have infiltrated Israel.

You forget the Navy Seal squad that landed on Israeli beach and got wiped out by air support?

At least this squad is in urban so more cover and ways to escape.
 
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You forget the Navy Seal squad that landed on Israeli beach and got wiped out by air support?

At least this squad is in urban so more cover and ways to escape.
This is different. Seems like multiple squads. This is catastrophic for Israel from the vids and pictures of I've seen. We are talking probably a dozen+ IDF dead, and dozens if not over a 100+ civilian deaths. Including hostages taken back to the Gaza Strip along with IDF vehicles as well.

Hamas states they have 5 IDF members captured.
 
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This is different. This is catastrophic for Israel from the vids and pictures of I've seen. We are talking probably a dozen+ IDF dead, and dozens if not over a 100+ civilian deaths. Including hostages taken back to the Gaza Strip along with IDF vehicles as well.



I haven’t seen any casualty figures or hostage numbers but I’m sure both sides will throw out manipulated numbers. But I doubt they would massacre civilians.
 
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I haven’t seen any casualty figures or hostage numbers but I’m sure both sides will throw out manipulated numbers. But I doubt they would massacre civilians.
I've seen the pictures on telegram. You will be very surprised. I can't post them here due to the extreme gore. Their are rooms full of dead people including IDF soldiers. Those guesses I said were based on pictures and the gore videos alone. They even drove a dead IDF soldier back to Gaza and like 30 people beat the corpse. This attack is no joke.

For example, their is a bus stop with 6 people dead, all of them old.
 
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I've seen the pictures on telegram. You will be very surprised. I can't post them here due to the extreme gore. Their are rooms full of dead people including IDF soldiers.

Taken by whom and posted by which accounts? You can do a reverse image search to verify whether or not these had been posted on the internet before.

Photographs aside, this is certainly an impressive raid. To think that some (mostly zionists and brown sahib western apologists) were ridiculing the fact that Lebanese HezbAllah has been training for years to conduct forays into enemy territory in case of another zionist attack on Lebanon, and that it officially declared its intention to consider said option.

Well, here's how it's done, and by the Palestinian Resistance. Now imagine what HezbAllah would pull of on Occupied Palestinian soil (there's no legitimate government by the name of Israel) if it came to that. Zionist and USA military might keeps being overrated by compradors.
 
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Taken by whom and posted by which accounts? You can do a reverse image search to verify whether or not these had been posted on the internet before.
I reversed search some of them, and yes the literally dead IDF soldiers in the streets are real, and new, or the 4 dead ones in a room are real.

Just wait a little bit, and the scale of the attack will be apparent. Some civilians are dead, clear evidence of that, but it also seemed to be well targeted against IDF by well trained teams.


They also seemed to have infiltrated an encampment, and killed the IDF members there. I can post some of the non gore pics.
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1696661860745.png



Captured IDF, taken back to Gaza, also reverse search. Picture has zero history on the internet.
 
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