My take on this entire fiasco:
Taliban are seriously dependent upon Iran for supplies, without an Iranian route they will have no escape. The central command is sane and talks about nationalism, diplomacy, and progress but these outer skirt warlords are more independent and the central command has no effective control over them. Even if IRI talks to the people in Kabul, will the Taliban leadership be able to establish control over the border pedo warlord who wants to attack infidels in Iran?So routes cut off will not work alone. IRI needs to see current Afghanistan as a non-centralized system in which warlords are not under the effective control of Kabul. No matter how much diplomacy Tehran does with Kabul, there will be continued border clashes. Some of them are idealistic Shia haters, some are just stupid tribal lords who want war to climb up the ranks in the chain of command. We need a mixture of strength and diplomacy at that front.
(1) Non-Kinetic control: Purchase warlords through illegal trade, paying someone one time would not work here unless the livelihood of some border pedo warlord and his entire tribe is dependent upon Iran. Make them dependent on fuel, food, and money to the point that they see Iran as a source of life. Letting Northern Alliance, Hezbe Wahdat be crushed was the worst mistake and naivety of IRI.
(2) Kinetic control:
- Expand Mashhad and Birjand bases with proper central command housing Mohajer-6, Ababil-5 UCAVS, and Shahed-136 mobile units. Normalize the border patrols, and airspace breaching just like how Israel has normalized it over Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Normalize cross-border missile strikes and then call it an isolated "terrorist targeting" operation, with nothing to do with Afghan people or Forces. The more we normalize this, the more they will fear us.
- Also, the bases should have three mixed squadrons of F-4E/D+Kowsar-I for all-weather, day/night heavy bombing from higher altitudes. Currently, Birjand is a semi-active base housing a few non-overhauled F-5E that cant operate during the night. The base is in same condition for decades, what a joke.
- There should also be a dedicated Missile base nearby that can barrage salvos of Fateh-110 (and BM-120), and Zelzal-2 carrying thermobaric warheads to the target base from where these pedo cavemen come out.
- Create a network of forts to guard the border housing automatic artillery and machine guns.
Striking back hard would punish atleast the local warlord enough if they lose their forts, warehouses, or whatever installations they are left with. They drove American armored carriers into the battle yesterday, where are they parked? why did not we see the compound housing this US leftover receiving Salvos of Zelzals and BM-120? YOU COMMAND RESPECT BY SHOWING FANGS in this world, there is no other way.
We see Israel massacring its enemies daily, it is always engaged in some level of deterrence against them. Forget who is who to us but see what Israelis do, they will bomb the shit out of Palestinians, they will bomb Iranian military installations in Syria, and then cause a terrorist assassination in Iran the same day. Does this mean they are not engaged in diplomacy? IRI needs to learn the modern world. We have too many old Akhoonds sitting in government with their "Doctorates" in how to enforce Hijabs on girls in Tehran and other BS. If we do not punish our enemies through kinetic and non-kinetic means we will never command the respect of outside our borders, the age of soft power is gone.
