Iranian Chill Thread

[aryobarzan]

You could call him a traitor but he raises some valid points that needs to be addressed.

Whenever the system is criticized, you guys get very defensive. But almost all of you live outside of Iran.

If Iran is such a paradise, it's like a rose garden then it begs the question of why many of you do not want to live there.



So it makes you a traitor if you want a secular government. Good to know.

Why are you in Canada again?

You misunderstand the fine points of Iran situation...no problem you are not Iranian.

I wished Iran never had a clerical government...I wished Iran was just another republic..but those are wishes..we have a clerical government who has made enemies with very powerful people..too bad and stupid but that is what we have...If we break this none ideal government system those enemies will break Iran apart so viciously that there will be no Iran..
So as a patriot I vote to keep this system and try to change it from within...

The TRAITOR that I named will seek help from the very enemies that will break Iran ..

 

[HGV]

On the topic of diaspora traitors:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1647680856536805377

It is a shame that he has reduced his family's legacy to this. He will never step foot in Iran again. A shame.

 

[Dariush the Great]

On the topic of diaspora traitors:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1647680856536805377

I would not call RP a traitor. Perhaps surrounded by the wrong people but definitely not a ''traitor''. Read his biography.

 

[LegionnairE]

You misunderstand the fine points of Iran situation...no problem you are not Iranian.

I wished Iran never had a clerical government...I wished Iran was just another republic..but those are wishes..we have a clerical government who has made enemies with very powerful people..too bad and stupid but that is what we have...If we break this none ideal government system those enemies will break Iran apart so viciously that there will be no Iran..
So as a patriot I vote to keep this system and try to change it from within...

The TRAITOR that I named will seek help from the very enemies that will break Iran ..

Ok, fair enough, I agree that violent revolutions are never good.

But are there mechanisms in place to reform the government peacefully?

and lastly, any foreign attempt to overthrow the regime will only make the regime stronger. So Ironically, outside pressure from US or Israel is only good for the Mullahs No self respecting Iranian will want to side with the enemy. They will rather defend the regime that they hate.

 

[HGV]

and lastly, any foreign attempt to overthrow the regime will only make the regime stronger. So Ironically, outside pressure from US or Israel is only good for the Mullahs No self respecting Iranian will want to side with the enemy. They will rather defend the regime that they hate.

Indeed. Iran is quite ironically blessed to have a psychotic and stupid (and very divided) opposition (almost exclusively residing outside Iran).

The situation is so bad that theories that the Iranian Government has infiltrated the opposition are widespread - they think the only explanation for the opposition's toxicity and lunacy is that they have been infiltrated!

 

[LegionnairE]

Indeed. Iran is quite ironically blessed to have a psychotic and stupid (and very divided) opposition (almost exclusively residing outside Iran).

The situation is so bad that theories that the Iranian Government has infiltrated the opposition are widespread - they think the only explanation for the opposition's toxicity and lunacy is that they have been infiltrated!

Could be true, I don't know.

But in times like this there's a race to the bottom. As the regime gets stupid opposition gets even stupider in the other direction. Kind of like CHP in Turkey.

AKP allies itself with a Hizbullah-affiliated party and CHP allies itself with a PKK affiliated party. It's like there's a bet and they are trying to prove who can alienate most people. Who can do the most retarded treasonous thing possible and still win.


That's why there should never be just regime vs opposition. There should be lots of parties so that some of them can be the voice of reason. When it's a binary choice, like the democrats and republicans in America... you're fucked.




Parliamentary system with at least 7-8 parties works the best, they can't afford to do stupid things then. There's too much competition.

 

[HGV]

Could be true, I don't know.

But in times like this there's a race to the bottom. As the regime gets stupid opposition gets even stupider in the other direction. Kind of like CHP in Turkey.

AKP allies itself with a Hizbullah-affiliated party and CHP allies itself with a PKK affiliated party. It's like there's a bet and they are trying to prove who can alienate most people. Who can do the most retarded treasonous thing possible and still win.

That's why there should never be just regime vs opposition. There should be lots of parties so that some of them can be the voice of reason. When it's a binary choice, like the democrats and republicans in America... you're fucked.

Parliamentary system with at least 7-8 parties works the best, they can't afford to do stupid things then. There's too much competition.

There is a lot of diversity in the opposition, the problem is they are all as stupid as each other. Typical anti-Mullah anti-Islam diaspora (who mostly support the exiled Shah's son), MEK cult terrorists and separatists are probably the three biggest groups of Iranian opposition. Their problem is they hate each other as much as they hate Iran's current system of government, and none are particularly popular inside Iran (especially not the latter two groups).

Within Iran it is a bit more complicated and controversial. I would say there is a reasonable amount of diversity in opinion freely expressed, but this is not really reflected in the parliament or government, since the existing structures are designed to favour certain views over others. But others would disagree with this view (in both directions).

Too many domestic parties usually leads to endless coalition governments and they get nothing done - like Israel or many European countries. For a developing country a strong leader is more favourable, but it is important to deliver results to maintain the support of the population, otherwise you are a dictatorship.

 

[LegionnairE]

There is a lot of diversity in the opposition, the problem is they are all as stupid as each other. Typical anti-Mullah anti-Islam diaspora (who mostly support the exiled Shah's son), MEK cult terrorists and separatists are probably the three biggest groups of Iranian opposition. Their problem is they hate each other as much as they hate Iran's current system of government, and none are particularly popular inside Iran (especially not the latter two groups).

Within Iran it is a bit more complicated and controversial. I would say there is a reasonable amount of diversity in opinion freely expressed, but this is not really reflected in the parliament or government, since the existing structures are designed to favour certain views over others. But others would disagree with this view (in both directions).

Too many domestic parties usually leads to endless coalition governments and they get nothing done - like Israel or many European countries. For a developing country a strong leader is more favourable, but it is important to deliver results to maintain the support of the population, otherwise you are a dictatorship.

After 20 years of Erdo, I'm ready for some coalition governments lol. As long as they expose each other's corruption, I'll be very happy.

Let politicians fight in the parliament for us instead of us the people fighting on the streets for them. It's a much better way to do reform.

Violent revolutions suck. You can go all the way back to French revolution. They are always bloody and it almost always ends with a dictatorship (like napoleon)

 

[Stryker1982]

But are there mechanisms in place to reform the government peacefully?

No, which is the source of most problems.

You can't elect people who have different thought processes, ideas and methods of governance. Naturally, many people who no longer have faith in the system just leave the country.

Sometimes you insult the country, okay it is what it is, lets look at the positives that can be found between our countries. One of the things about Turkey is its system of governance is adaptable to changes, right now you can vote for Kilicdaroglu, and push the country to a completely new direction (assuming no sketchy business is taking place in the elections). Such a thing doesn't exist in Iran, it is like voting for Putin or Putins best buddy Medvedev.

In some ways their is a benefit, you maximize efficiency in domestic and foreign policy goals, you don't end up with 4-8 years of one policy, and do a 180 degree change to another policy and keep flipping and flopping for decades, in the end nothing is done. But this system can only work if competence exists in leadership, and positions are held by merit instead of connections. The result is a highly efficiency system like China. A system ruled by very high standards and high average intelligence. If you cannot do the job properly, you are dismissed or jailed, in cases of corruption at your post, you may be executed. I prefer this mode of governance but this system is far from it.

 

[HGV]

After 20 years of Erdo, I'm ready for some coalition governments lol. As long as they expose each other's corruption, I'll be very happy.

Let politicians fight in the parliament for us instead of us the people fighting on the streets for them. It's a much better way to do reform.

Violent revolutions suck. You can go all the way back to French revolution.

The ideal situation is an anti-corruption purge from within the government, like with the CCP in China. But that is the exception rather than the rule and it is very far from reality in Iran unfortunately (probably Turkey too, but I don't know).

Peaceful incremental reforms is the only way forward for Iran. It is difficult and slow but none of the other options are worth the risk. The hijab situation in Iran was improving a lot in recent years, but now the violent foreign-funded riots backed the IRI into a corner and they can't compromise or they will be seen as weak. I personally know Iranian women who oppose the mandatory hijab but don't want the government to compromise on that now because it would send a message of weakness. The general lesson is that the less foreign interference, the better.

Sometimes you insult the country, okay it is what it is, lets look at the positives that can be found between our countries. One of the things about Turkey is its system of governance is adaptable to changes, right now you can vote for Kilicdaroglu, and push the country to a completely new direction (assuming no sketchy business is taking place in the elections). Such a thing doesn't exist in Iran, it is like voting for Putin or Putins best buddy Medvedev.

I agree. The best we have is to vote for reformist/moderates who are approved by the IRI system but can push through some real reforms, and start a longer process of incremental reform in that direction. Unfortunately there are many variables, and the US violating the JCPOA really embarrassed Rouhani and set the reform movement back decades. Ultimately, the IRI is pragmatic and capable of bending to the will of the people, and this is reflected in who is allowed to stand for elections...

 

[LegionnairE]

@Stryker1982 @HGV

If things are as you say they are, it's going to take you some 80 years for the incremental changes to really have much of an effect.
You'll be moving from Mao (a really bloody tyrant) to a Xi type ruler who is more of a 1984 type dictator.

It will never be much of a democracy. And there will always be people who want quick, radical change instead of slow, incremental change. How are you going to convince them?

 

[Stryker1982]

@Stryker1982 @HGV

If things are as you say they are, it's going to take you some 80 years for the incremental changes to really have much of an effect.
You'll be moving from Mao (a really bloody tyrant) to a Xi type ruler who is more of a 1984 type dictator.

It will never be much of a democracy. And there will always be people who want quick, radical change instead of slow, incremental change. How are you going to convince them?

Can't convince opposition to wait. It's a uncertain promise of different future with no guarantee of success. Whose gonna waste their life for that. They will generally leave the country if they have the means too. Those that can't will either participate in riots or just give up and accept it.

Incremental changes is more of HGVs thought process, which as you say would take a very long time. Essentially generations would have to die out, and be replaced much like the 80s Soviet Union compared to the 50s compared to the 20's.

Some of the folks in this forum would probably find this controversial but I think a new leader entirely is needed without some violent upheaval, basically we need our own Bin Salman to really have a chance. The current Supreme Leader is very old, who will replace him? I'm more waiting for that to see what happens before judging if this system can really continue or not.

Otherwise, I believe stagnation will be the norm leading eventually to system failure either through coup or upheaval.

 

[HGV]

@Stryker1982 @HGV

If things are as you say they are, it's going to take you some 80 years for the incremental changes to really have much of an effect.
You'll be moving from Mao (a really bloody tyrant) to a Xi type ruler who is more of a 1984 type dictator.

It will never be much of a democracy. And there will always be people who want quick, radical change instead of slow, incremental change. How are you going to convince them?

Khamenei is not a "bloody tyrant" at all. To the contrary, as I said, "Ultimately, the IRI is pragmatic and capable of bending to the will of the people".

And most people in Iran still support the IRI. That probably won't change any time soon, and the pace of chance won't be as slow as you think.

 

[Stryker1982]

And most people in Iran still support the IRI. That probably won't change any time soon, and the pace of chance won't be as slow as you think.

When people get poorer and poorer everyday due to currency devaluation coupled with foreign cultural penetration against IR, that sentiment will change very quickly. Especially when the older generations are no longer alive who are notably more Pro-IR than the younger generations. I am expecting more riots this summer when they increase gas prices.

This is what happens with every revolution. The originals, the OGs eventually gone and are periodically replaced by lesser believers until the people ruling the system themselves are not particularly interested in defending it. The Soviet Union would have never failed had the mentality of the OGs of the 1920s were still around in the 1980s. They would still be here today.

 

[HGV]

When people get poorer and poorer everyday due to currency devaluation coupled with foreign cultural penetration against IR, that sentiment will change very quickly. Especially when the older generations are no longer alive who are notably more Pro-IR than the younger generations. I am expecting more riots this summer when they increase gas prices.

This is what happens with every revolution. The originals, the OGs eventually gone and are periodically replaced by lesser believers until the people ruling the system themselves are not particularly interested in defending it. The Soviet Union would have never failed had the mentality of the OGs of the 1920s were still around in the 1980s. They would still be here today.

Further riots are inevitable, but the latest ones were really insignificant in size, the IRI wasn't threatened at all. The enemy controls the media and will amplify riots to the fullest, skewing perception of the size of the riots.

Iran's GDP is projected to increase by around 3% this year and there are many possible positive shocks to the economy possible (e.g. reach deal on JCPOA for sanctions relief, greater multipolarity undermining power of the USD and effectiveness of unilateral US sanctions, etc).

Even the younger generation doesn't support regime change, many support the IRI. The media amplifies the views of young people in Tehran but Iran is a huge country and Tehran is not necessarily representative of the overall country.

But there is some truth to what you say, and that's why it is important that the IRI takes corruption seriously and focuses on loosening social restrictions and boosting the economy.