TheImmortal
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I mentioned in many comments how this won't actually effect and potential to overthrown the system at this current moment. Not a chance without actually taking any strategic objectives which would require sentiment shifts in the internal security apparatus and more people to join.
My point was that, down the line, you have no guarantees that other segments of the society do not join in these riots, like the Bazaaris, and middle aged groups which would be the life blood of the system.
In addition, down the line the younger generations will grow up and take over roles from the now retired, but this generation is clearly much more western influenced than the previous and this will also create weakness in the structure of the system, which many spies and 5th columns will be rampant inside government. Essentially, the system cannot last if it continues in this route.
The young pro-IR are not many to compensate. The poor class is also being pressured, and it is likely another fuel hike is coming as well. These are not positive signs, the only thing that can recovers somethings is economic activity and jobs, and I think the system is betting that the Shanghai deal they are not part of will provide dividends but I am doubtful.
Not happening.
Overthrowing governments that have their own security (IRGC) that have their own militias (Basij) and whose ruling factions largely stick together in times of distress means iran is one of the least likely countries to have a revolution. Bazaaris don’t have that much power anymore since IRGC has way more economic clout than them. They know if they stray too much then government will just imminent domain their business. Now they poor and likely in jail. Why would they take such a risk?
That’s why I said change needs to come over time and from within.
The factions may jockey for power and some may dispise each other. But they know at the end of the day they can only count on each other because if the revolution happens the Rouhani’s of Iran have just as much blood on their hands as the Raisi’s of Iran.