Iranian Chill Thread

[SalarHaqq]

True, but this may only be the beginning.

The point is the Islamic Republic's handling of the challenge has been (and will continue to be) sound and rational same as always.

 

[QWECXZ]

Strike a refinery or pipeline in Az. They will come to beg with the next flight.

They cannot afford not having energy resources.

Key is to be ruthless with drone and missiles strikes on infrastructures.

^^ This.
It doesn't even have to be us.
Armenians can handle it on their own with loitering munitions.
And now that we have transferred our drones to Russia, we could blame it on Russia.

Meanwhile, Pashiniyan should be overthrown.

 

[Stryker1982]

The point is the Islamic Republic's handling of the challenge has been (and will continue to be) sound and rational as always.

How do you think the IR should be handling the issue of actual Azerbijiani Shia's. We know that they do have a real connection to Iran beyond borders. We also know the Aliyev government is very hostile towards them. I don't believe their are many of them, but they are there.

How does the IR address this issue, how to keep them on our side, while showing teeth to Aliyev government. I think in many cases, IR is very conservative not to lose the support of Azeri Shia's in Shirvan region

 

[sha ah]

Putin's chef recruits prisoners / convicts to fight in Ukraine

This is what Iran is doing with them. The groundwork has been laid.

How do you think the IR should be handling the issue of actual Azerbijiani Shia's. We know that they do have a real connection to Iran beyond borders. We also know the Aliyev government is very hostile towards them. I don't believe their are many of them, but they are there.

How does the IR address this issue, how to keep them on our side, while showing teeth to Aliyev government. I think in many cases, IR is very conservative not to lose the support of Azeri Shia's in Shirvan region

 

[sha ah]

If the Armenian leadership had any brains they would have purchased missiles, air defenses, UAVS, ATGMs, Manpads, basically everything they needed from Iran. They could have built a network of tunnels/bunkers to connect to Nagorno-Karabakh. Instead their military didn't adapt to the times and therefore they lost.

It's actually sad how their weak leadership (Pashinyan) suck up to the west even though the western nations won't lift a finger for them and could care less.

Iran should deploy forces to the northern region, in case of a Nakhchivan operation, along a 150,000 KM front, Iran will require 50,000-100,000 troops to ensure that they quickly sweep the enclave

^^ This.
It doesn't even have to be us.
Armenians can handle it on their own with loitering munitions.
And now that we have transferred our drones to Russia, we could blame it on Russia.

Meanwhile, Pashiniyan should be overthrown.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570522846765363200

 

[sha ah]

Remains of a Shahed 136 in Nikopol, Ukraine. Allegedly the usage of these loitering munitions is increasing in Ukraine.

 

[sha ah]

Destroyed Ukrainian BMP and Turkish made Kirpi MRAP on Kherson front

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570691628985389056

Border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan flare up again as both sides begin using heavy weapons. Can't they just use diplomacy to figure out their differences ? Does it really have to come to this ?

Kyrgyzstan reports heavy fighting with Tajikistan, 24 people killed

Kyrgyzstan reported "intense battles" with Central Asian neighbour Tajikistan on Friday and said 24 people had been killed in the latest outbreak of violence to hit the former Soviet Union.

www.reuters.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570403408326139904

 

[sha ah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570680412363706368

 

[SalarHaqq]

How do you think the IR should be handling the issue of actual Azerbijiani Shia's. We know that they do have a real connection to Iran beyond borders. We also know the Aliyev government is very hostile towards them. I don't believe their are many of them, but they are there.

How does the IR address this issue, how to keep them on our side, while showing teeth to Aliyev government. I think in many cases, IR is very conservative not to lose the support of Azeri Shia's in Shirvan region

Well, this would be a further development of my previous comment's second paragraph (long term solutions).

The first thing to know and insist upon in public communication, is that the only side Iran has ever supported militarily in the Karabakh conflict, is the Azari one. During the first post-Soviet Karabakh war, Iran dispatched IRGC forces to fight alongside Azaris, several were martyred. The reason Iran froze her military support solely lies in the Baku regime's dreams of taking on Iran and separating her Azari provinces, a desire Baku leaders openly expressed in talks with the very IRGC officers who had been tasked to assist them. This needs to be reminded more systematically and brought to the attention of the public in the so-called Republic of Azarbaijan.

Another argument to put forward not just with the religious folk but with the broader public in the Baku republic, is the fact that zionist backing of the Alyiev regime, as contributive to recent military victories over Karabakh Armenians as it may have been, is not stemming from some kind of altruistic sympathy for Azarbaijan but is obviously driven by an ulterior motive, that motive being to use Azarbaijan as a disposable tool in the grand zionist and NATO scheme to destabilize and break Iran apart via "ethnic" separatism. To the religiously-minded, this is unacceptable since it shows how both the Baku regime does not conceive of its military adventures as a confrontation against non-Muslims but it is in fact working towards a much bigger clash with Shia Muslim brethren across the Aras. Others will also tend to question this gamble by the Aliyev regime, because this is no longer a defensive effort but a megalomaniac aggressive policy which, if pursued beyond Iran's red lines, would unnecessarily end up inducing huge costs upon Azarbaijan Republic for the sake of Isra"el" and NATO. The latter are the only parties who'd stand to gain from such a development.

Opposition to the Aliyev clan per se isn't an issue, only military support for Armenia might complicate things in this regard. For the regime itself has numerous opponents including among the less religious, if alone for its high levels of corruption and its repressiveness.

Note that organized groups with ties to Islamic Iran will keep their allegiance intact, because it is ideological and organic in nature. This is more about their popular support base, as well as about the general public in Aran va Shirvan. Now crackdowns against religious Azaris at the hands of Baku authorities - and not just against those who sympathize with the Islamic Revolution, are nothing new. The regime has not only jailed Iran-friendly Islamic activists and clerics, but also imposed a harsh form of secularism complete with hijab bans at certain public venues and education establishments. In this regard, Azarbaijan Republic stands where Turkey used to prior to the AKP's rise to power. This contradiction in the relationship between Baku and Ankara needs to be highlighted more energetically.

Iranian military-grade support for Armenia could offer the Aliyev regime a pretext to step up its repression of religious Shia segments of society, and of pro-IR movements in particular. I specified Shia, because the regime has actually been cultivating salafist and wahhabi currents amongst the Sunni minority in the country's north, in an attempt to establish a counter-weight to pro-Iranian religious forces. The opening of a major wahhabi-oriented mosque in the center of Baku (with Saudi funding if I'm not mistaken) is symbolic of this. Baku is furthermore suspected of having facilitated recruitment of Sunni Muslim volunteers from the Republic of Azarbaijan into terrorist formations in Syria, including "I"SIS. Likewise, we witnessed how Turkey sent Syrian fighters to the Caucasus in order to participate in the previous Karabakh offensive. Relying on such extremists is always a double edged sword, and this represents yet another opportunity for Iran - the rabid shiaphobia of these Syrian armed groups including so-called "moderate" ones isn't lost on anyone. Remind religious Azaris of this fact, reproduce evidence from the archives of the Syrian conflict.

One point which could be raised against the Aliyev regime with pan-Turkist / Bozkurt elements in Baku, is the Kurdish origin of the Aliyevs.

Another option to consider, is promotion of the Azari people's Iranian identity, given that they are "ethnically" Iranian, and culturally as well - with the exception of their language, which is nonetheless featuring fair amounts of Persian vocabulary. Recently, a Hosseyniun official made some statements to this effect. Both religious and less religious citizens of the Baku republic qualify as potential target audiences for Iranian identitarian discourse. Since Azaris are Iranians, Iran is their natural motherland. Therefore, regimes trying to push separatist agendas against Iran cannot be supported. And since the safety of greater Iran is paramount, if it supposes to drive Aliyev's invading forces out of Armenia proper - not out of Karabakh, then this will be a legitimate endeavour.

As a complement to the modest thoughts above, I'd recommend listening to Ra'efipur's analysis on the Azarbaijan Republic from last year:

 

[Hack-Hook]

A lot of talk has been made of Russian SU-34’s being shot down.

Here is why:

Lack of PGM’s is forcing them to very low altitude. Much easier to hit even with a manpad let alone a capable air defense system. Also less reaction time for pilot to start evasive actions

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570288960718655489

This is basically SU-25/A-10 warthog altitude.

what you think they are still stuck in mid 20s

 

[Hack-Hook]

Now you understand my point. Without absurd PGM supply numbers within 6 months most militaries run low. Russia ended up having to turn to soviet era dummy bombs and lacked JDAM or glide kits to turn these into fairly accurate munitions.

the problem with russia is that from the day one they had lack of pgm and today pgms are not something out of science fictions like 70s . you lack chips for making pgm you can gut some cheap feature phone to turn a dumb bomb into a gps guided bomb , a cheap raspberi pi zero have enough processing power to turn a rocket into something like maverick .
today my calculator have far more proocessing power than all of f-14a . building an arsennal of PGM is not as hard and expensive as it was in 70s and 80s ,your war doctorine must see the need for it

 

[Arash1991]

If the Armenian leadership had any brains they would have purchased missiles, air defenses, UAVS, ATGMs, Manpads, basically everything they needed from Iran. They could have built a network of tunnels/bunkers to connect to Nagorno-Karabakh. Instead their military didn't adapt to the times and therefore they lost.

It's actually sad how their weak leadership (Pashinyan) suck up to the west even though the western nations won't lift a finger for them and could care less.

Iran should deploy forces to the northern region, in case of a Nakhchivan operation, along a 150,000 KM front, Iran will require 50,000-100,000 troops to ensure that they quickly sweep the enclave

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570522846765363200

i Believe that Azerbaijan threatened them not to buy or they will continue. So Armenias leadership was or is kind of scared.
This is what I mean with "weak leadership" in previous comments. You cant expect from these guys a true resistance. They dont own the philosophy of resistance in their hearts because they are too much blinded by the rules and philosophy of this actual world order. They think in Numbers, Tanks, Money and economy and they dont believe in the peoples resistance power. This is the problem.

 

[sha ah]

Ukraine uses HIMARS to bomb the administrative sector of Kherson. A park and water fountain were situated nearby. Innocent civilians were killed and injured. This is what the US is supporting in Ukraine. This is clearly a war crime.

Ukraine doesn't have a NAZI problem. A Jew working with Nazis. Does he have no shame ? Guess not. I mean after all Israel worked with Al Qaeda in Syria.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570549733697138688

I meant before the war. They should have purchased weapons before the war and what about now ? They're just imbeciles if you ask me.

i Believe that Azerbaijan threatened them not to buy or they will continue. So Armenias leadership was or is kind of scared.
This is what I mean with "weak leadership" in previous comments. You cant expect from these guys a true resistance. They dont own the philosophy of resistance in their hearts because they are too much blinded by the rules and philosophy of this actual world order. They think in Numbers, Tanks, Money and economy and they dont believe in the peoples resistance power. This is the problem.

 

[Arash1991]

I meant before the war. They should have purchased weapons before the war and what about now ? They're just imbeciles if you ask me.

Before the war last year maybe it was not to expect that such a big conflict will occur. They didnt took the threat seriously enough. Relied on Russias Military Support cause they are member of CSTO wich failed to protect its ally in both conflicts. NATO is more reliable to its members.

And after the conflict from 2020? yes they should buy but were scared.

These kind of argumentation will not help "what should be done in past..."... its all over now. What should happen now is the real question. That is that armenian president should leave office.

 

[TheImmortal]

what you think they are still stuck in mid 20s

I don’t understand what you are trying to say.

the problem with russia is that from the day one they had lack of pgm and today pgms are not something out of science fictions like 70s . you lack chips for making pgm you can gut some cheap feature phone to turn a dumb bomb into a gps guided bomb , a cheap raspberi pi zero have enough processing power to turn a rocket into something like maverick .
today my calculator have far more proocessing power than all of f-14a . building an arsennal of PGM is not as hard and expensive as it was in 70s and 80s ,your war doctorine must see the need for it

The issue is a lot of PGMs were used during Syrian war and they ran out. Flying low and using dummy bombs was not a problem against Syrian rebels who had no air defense or manpads.

Even if you lack PGMs you could do what Iran did and build glide kits that use processor to determine glide trajectory to target. Less jammable.

But I like I said, Iran likely has same problem. Iran has many types PGMs for drones and aircraft, but likely inventory is low since airforce is zero priority.

For example, how many Phoenix missile do F-14’s have left? 200? 300? How long would that last in an intense air to air conflict? 3 months?