What's new

Iranian Chill Thread

I think you're giving Ukraine too much credit. They do have the will to fight but without direct NATO support they would have crumbled a long time ago.

You know what though, looking back in times, even the Soviets had lots of ups and downs before finally taking control of Ukraine. You never know what the future holds.

Keep in mind everything the Russians have achieved thus far, they've done while outnumbered, which is pretty remarkable, considering the stalemate in the air.

They really do need a large fleet of drones though. If they didn't purchase hundreds of Iranian drones then right about now they're wishing they did.

Corruption and Paranoia. That’s what caused Russian military state today.

Much like Assad’s military....commanders were selected based on loyalty not capability. On top of that they were still following flawed Soviet Union philosophy when they no longer had the massive arms and personnel that philosophy required to be even remotely successful.

Lastly they attacked a country that was literally the military engine of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine has the largest land army in Europe and despite its own corruption problems they were able to reassemble themselves post 2014 and were always capable fighters.
 
.
I think you're giving Ukraine too much credit. They do have the will to fight but without direct NATO support they would have crumbled a long time ago.

You know what though, looking back in times, even the Soviets had lots of ups and downs before finally taking control of Ukraine. You never know what the future holds.

Keep in mind everything the Russians have achieved thus far, they've done while outnumbered, which is pretty remarkable, considering the stalemate in the air.

They really do need a large fleet of drones though. If they didn't purchase hundreds of Iranian drones then right about now they're wishing they did.
what they need is let go of their old and outdated military doctrine and adapt themselves with today battlefield realities . even if you gave them 100s of drone if they don't adapt on how to use them and try to use them as they do now , it would be waste of resources.
 
.
The Americans said Russia had deployed 150-200,000 troops at the start of the invasion. A report yesterday said Russia has 170,000 troops in Ukraine. So I don't know about 300,000. You could be right but not from what I've seen.

I misspoke, they had 120-130 BTGs at the start of the invasion. Which assuming BTG = 1000 troops that would mean a force of 130K. If they have 20K casualties using the 3:1 KIA to WIa rule than they have 60K wounded so 80K total. That would mean there is 50K troops in Ukraine right now....impossible

Hence why I think they injected more troops as the war went on.

I didn’t say they have 300K in Ukraine right now. I said they have ~200K. The rest are troops on rest, incapable units, deaths, casualties, etc. (~100K)

I think you're giving Ukraine too much credit. They do have the will to fight but without direct NATO support they would have crumbled a long time ago.

Ukraine stopped a top 5 largest military power in the world. It doesn’t matter if it was with NATO aid or Jesus himself sent archangels to fight alongside Ukrainian troops. The end result is the same—Russian failure on historical levels. This war will be taught around the world for decades in military academy’s and training facilities of what not to do as an invasion force.

You know what though, looking back in times, even the Soviets had lots of ups and downs before finally taking control of Ukraine. You never know what the future holds.

Russia has a fraction of the power of old Soviet Union. You forget how massive of a military and how many nations fought for Soviet Union.

Keep in mind everything the Russians have achieved thus far, they've done while outnumbered, which is pretty remarkable, considering the stalemate in the air.

No it’s not ‘remarkable’ that Russia was able to take literally one major province (Luchnask) and Mariupol and parts of a few others.

It seems you are doing your best Baghdad Bob impression.

They really do need a large fleet of drones though. If they didn't purchase hundreds of Iranian drones then right about now they're wishing they did.

You know why Iran won in Syria? Because of boots on the ground and mobilizing capable forces that followed orders and adapted to the situation. Granted Iran and It’s allies made ALOT of mistakes during that war, some boneheaded ones (Battle of Al-Eis and Battle of Morek) but overall they progressed very well because their high command and commanders were capable. Their officers followed orders and adapted to situation.

Russia does not have capable boots on the ground nor capable officers nor capable commanders.

Hell Russia doesn’t even have one Tiger Force like Commander to rally the troops and military to give hope. Not one single notable commander that gets results done when others cannot.

Syria had Tiger Force Commander and the Druze Commander and his Special forces that held Dier Ez Zor for years surrounded. Two well known commanders throughout the war.
 
.
This has major security implications for Iran and China. The last time the West got cocky they attacked Afghanistan - Iraq - Libya - Syria in short succession and scheduled a color revolution in Iran that failed.

We do not need US/NATO thinking that Iran and China are also paper tigers.
This was what I was also thinking about. This might only encourage them now.

Corruption and Paranoia. That’s what caused Russian military state today.

Much like Assad’s military....commanders were selected based on loyalty not capability. On top of that they were still following flawed Soviet Union philosophy when they no longer had the massive arms and personnel that philosophy required to be even remotely successful.
Now how much of Iran is also vulnerable to this, I believe much of the Artesh is like this.
 
.
The main crisis and the roots of this crisis lies in Crimea. Crimea means black sea and for hundreds of years it was under control of Russians. Losing this vital coatsal city to Russians once again, was a serious damage to global Zionists.
Russia is embarrassing herself in Ukraine but here people pretend that it's all part of a big strategy that Putin has planned it step by step with his great strategic mind.
Just like Iran's silence against provocations and aggressions by the US and Israel that is called "strategic patience".
I think that we have to wait for China.

Thankfuly west is pushing them to where we want, esp, in the Taiwanese case.
 
.
Now how much of Iran is also vulnerable to this, I believe much of the Artesh is like this.

Iran’s only issue is they have a love affair for those that served in Iran-Iraq war or were part of the revolution. So many in power today are relics from that period. Which becomes a problem when they aren’t producing (ie Intelligence Chief) they tend to have have a super long leash before they are let go or moved to a bogus role.

But military philosophy wise Iran was trained under British-American military philosophy for decades. It’s a modified version today for Artesh taking into account military tactician advancements and experiences from Iran-Iraq war.

Military philosophy wise Iran is very different than Russia. Only similarity is a little too cannon fodder happy (similar to Russia) lack of care about preserving the life of the average troop like Western militaries do (adequate body armour, overwhelming support in battle, air support, etc).

This war shows why it’s important, because when casualties mount up and you don’t have mobilization then you are ****ed because you didn’t care enough to protect your attacking force and now are fighting back undermanned.

I don’t think for Iran, overall military philosophy will be the issue. Fresh blood in upper command that didn’t serve in Iran/Iraq war will eventually be needed to bring new thoughts and ideas and change the status quo. Some of the old brass is stuck in their ways in terms of thinking (see state of IRIAF).

My real concern for Iran is that neither Russia or China want to partner to form a true axis to combat the West. Instead of 3 Musketeers ‘one for all and all for one’ ....it’s 3 Lone Wolves getting attacked by themselves.
 
. .
as far as i'm aware Poland and Czech republic donated around 200-300 old T-72 tank the rest are Ukrainian and nobody else sent any tanks (in fact T-72 of Ukraine army are actually upgraded , thats not the case of Czech or Poland Tanks they are M varriant (it seems the number of donated tanks is 240-250 , 40 from Czech the rest from Poland)
Don't forget the Russians. They also provided Ukraine hundreds of tanks.
 
. . .
let just say tens of tanks, when you say hundreds it bring several hundred to mind that certainly is not the case here
I believe its in the hundreds with the fiasco in the northern Ukraine in March to April and some others months between until later during the Kharkiv counter offensive.
 
.
Well it's a game of cat and mouse because for the most park, Ukrainian air defense batteries tend to hide and only when they receive intelligence, they come out of hiding, lock onto the target, engage it, and then go back into hiding. This has been made possible due to NATO awacs and satellite intelligence which lets them know when and where the Russian jets are. Of course the Russians do end up conducting some air strikes but they have to be so careful, constantly dispensing chaff and maneuvering.

the role of SEAD is clear and Ukraine air-defense will become useless if Russia use appropriate weapon instead of those useless Iron Bomb

that is the official narrative , but how much it aligned with reality on the ground ?
 
.
Well it's a game of cat and mouse because for the most park, Ukrainian air defense batteries tend to hide and only when they receive intelligence, they come out of hiding, lock onto the target, engage it, and then go back into hiding. This has been made possible due to NATO awacs and satellite intelligence which lets them know when and where the Russian jets are. Of course the Russians do end up conducting some air strikes but they have to be so careful, constantly dispensing chaff and maneuvering.
Russia have AWACS of its own and Ukraine still manage to fly helicopters and airplanes .
also that hiding is overrated , the infra red camera on pods is exactly have the duty of finding such hidden assets and Russia must have destroyed them as primary target in first weeks of the war before NATO get involved

I believe its in the hundreds with the fiasco in the northern Ukraine in March to April and some others months between until later during the Kharkiv counter offensive.
honestly i cant understand it how much it take to destroy a tank when you want to abandon it, fully loaded with ammunition.
 
.
What do you mean Baghdad Bob ? The Russians are supposed to outnumber the Ukrainians 3 to 1. They are outnumbered 3 to 1 and have been since the start. Despite this they have been able to take 20% of Ukraine's territory.

The issue is that they went into Ukraine thinking that the government and army would fold. They tried to replicate what they did in Crimea. The intelligence was way off. Not only Russian intelligence though. The majority in the US intelligence community also believed that Kiev would fall in 3 days. Bad intelligence can lead to disastrous consequences just like what happened to the US in Afghanistan recently.

Realistically though, even 200,000 troops for 1400 KM makes no sense. Again the Americans had 370,000 troops for a front that was 200-300 KM wide at most. Also Iraq after the Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf war and 12 years of relentless bombings and sanctions was weak and depleted and Americans had absolute air superiority.

Anyways looking at this from a historical perspective, the Soviets struggled for a years to take Ukraine. It wasn't a straight forward affair. There were alot of ups and downs. At one point the Soviet Union had to give up massive chunks of territory in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

This war isn't even close to over. If the Ukrainians were able to decisively defeat the Russians, like encircle and annihilate a large army group, then that would be a different story, In the last few days the Ukrainians simply outmaneuvered the Russians and caught them by surprise with numbers and mobility. Once the Russians draw a line in the sand and engage the Ukrainians face to face then we'll get a better idea of what the future holds.

I misspoke, they had 120-130 BTGs at the start of the invasion. Which assuming BTG = 1000 troops that would mean a force of 130K. If they have 20K casualties using the 3:1 KIA to WIa rule than they have 60K wounded so 80K total. That would mean there is 50K troops in Ukraine right now....impossible

Hence why I think they injected more troops as the war went on.

I didn’t say they have 300K in Ukraine right now. I said they have ~200K. The rest are troops on rest, incapable units, deaths, casualties, etc. (~100K)



Ukraine stopped a top 5 largest military power in the world. It doesn’t matter if it was with NATO aid or Jesus himself sent archangels to fight alongside Ukrainian troops. The end result is the same—Russian failure on historical levels. This war will be taught around the world for decades in military academy’s and training facilities of what not to do as an invasion force.



Russia has a fraction of the power of old Soviet Union. You forget how massive of a military and how many nations fought for Soviet Union.



No it’s not ‘remarkable’ that Russia was able to take literally one major province (Luchnask) and Mariupol and parts of a few others.

It seems you are doing your best Baghdad Bob impression.



You know why Iran won in Syria? Because of boots on the ground and mobilizing capable forces that followed orders and adapted to the situation. Granted Iran and It’s allies made ALOT of mistakes during that war, some boneheaded ones (Battle of Al-Eis and Battle of Morek) but overall they progressed very well because their high command and commanders were capable. Their officers followed orders and adapted to situation.

Russia does not have capable boots on the ground nor capable officers nor capable commanders.

Hell Russia doesn’t even have one Tiger Force like Commander to rally the troops and military to give hope. Not one single notable commander that gets results done when others cannot.

Syria had Tiger Force Commander and the Druze Commander and his Special forces that held Dier Ez Zor for years surrounded. Two well known commanders throughout the war.

But how can Russian AWACS or infared pods find Ukrainian air defense systems if they're not even turned on ? They're dispersed and they hide them in the most unexpected places. Anywhere from a large house garage, a barn, in the forest, in an industrial garage.

Then when they receive intel, they come out, engage the target and some missiles can track the target by themselves after a certain point so in some cases they're only active for 10-20 minutes then they go back into hiding. So they're not that easy to find. It even took the US months to find all the Iraqi SCUD batteries in the first Gulf War. That was in the middle of the desert. Of course technology has progressed alot since then but still.

I really think that a few hundred Iranian drones, including loitering munitions, could help the Russians alot, because they could effectively saturate the airspace. Military leaders are hesitant to lose a 50 million dollar jet and its pilot but with a $100,000 loitering munition or $2 million dollar UAV who cares as long as you destroy vital enemy targets.

Russia have AWACS of its own and Ukraine still manage to fly helicopters and airplanes .
also that hiding is overrated , the infra red camera on pods is exactly have the duty of finding such hidden assets and Russia must have destroyed them as primary target in first weeks of the war before NATO get involved


honestly i cant understand it how much it take to destroy a tank when you want to abandon it, fully loaded with ammunition.
 
Last edited:
.
Some countries like France/UK only have 200 tanks so For Ukraine to have received 200+ tanks is ALOT.

Yes Russia needs to mobilize atleast 500,000 troops and they need a large fleet of UAVs. If not I don't think they will be able to achieve their goals in Ukraine.

Maybe they should take up Kim's offer of sending 500,000 troops in exchange for oil and wheat ? LOL

as far as i'm aware Poland and Czech republic donated around 200-300 old T-72 tank the rest are Ukrainian and nobody else sent any tanks (in fact T-72 of Ukraine army are actually upgraded , thats not the case of Czech or Poland Tanks they are M varriant (it seems the number of donated tanks is 240-250 , 40 from Czech the rest from Poland)

Don't forget Afghanistan was not too long ago. I don't think the Americans would have an easy time in Iran and I think they know this.

This was what I was also thinking about. This might only encourage them now.


Now how much of Iran is also vulnerable to this, I believe much of the Artesh is like this.
 
.

Latest posts

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom