Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

What does this statement even mean?

Look at Hezbollah in battle of Yabrud. Literally wiped the floor with terrorists in their first conventional battle.

Houthi’s have existed for longer than Hezbollah. And in the 2000’s were actually supported by Saudi Arabia in their battle with Sallah. They been at war with various sides for decades. But Houthi’s are guerrilla fighters more akin to Taliban in terms of fighting strategy than Hezbollah that is more strategic.

Is it just me or was the war in Syria much more competently managed than what Russia is doing in Ukraine.

Albanian PM; No damage

Meanwhile;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568782751511486469

 

[Hack-Hook]

Literally look at the aid packages, you think they are only giving them light artillery? lol

the aid package consist of many thing, light and heavy . the question is what actually delivered and in what numbre

 

[TheImmortal]

Is it just me or was the war in Syria much more competently managed than what Russia is doing in Ukraine.

Russia’s war has been a blunder border-lining now on disaster.

Iran and it’s allies took back 70% of Syria and 80-90% of the population when they were surrounded in Damascus and rebels were shelling the royal palace.

Russia can barely hold on to Luchnask and Donbass provinces with 300K.

There were flashes of Russian incompetence in Syria that foreshadowed this (a Russian general stepping on a known landmine was the creme de le creme ). Even the Russian airforce credited for turning the tide of Syrian war had many erroneous or ineffective air strikes compared to western counterparts.

Of course the Goebbels and Baghdad Bob’s of this board will spin this as a positive for Russia and all part of some grand master plan. These guys minds cannot cope with loss in any shape or form.

But the only tool left Russia has is to cut off gas to Europe and hope for pain in winter.

 

[Stryker1982]

Even the Russian airforce credited for turning the tide of Syrian war had many erroneous or ineffective air strikes compared to western counterparts.

You mean like when theirs artillery duels between HTS and SAA and they target a chicken farm instead?

 

[sha ah]

I just read a report yesterday. Russia has 170,000 troops in Ukraine. Their main issue is a lack of manpower. I don't understand why Putin doesn't just declare war and mobilize the 2 million reserves that Russia has.

Russia lost territory in the Kharkiv region during the last few days but they managed to salvage their troops and avoid being encircled.

The Russians can't use their airforce effectively because of Ukrainian air defense systems. They can't effectively target the Ukrainian air defense systems because for the most part they're not active. Ukrainians hide them and rely on spotters on the ground and NATO satellite and AWACS intelligence to direct them. That makes them even more dangerous because they can basically pop out of nowhere.

During the last few days the Russians didn't really put up a fight. There were no major clashes. The Ukrainians had 15,000+ while the Russians had 5000 or less. The Ukrainians had the numerical advantage and pushed their advantage before the Russians could send reinforcements to stabilize the lines.

On the Kherson front, Ukraine's counter offensive has stalled, they failed to seize the Zaporizhia nuclear plant, losing 400+ elite troops in the process, but in Kharkiv they were extremely successful.

From the available evidence it seems apparent that a significant numbers of foreign volunteers/mercenaries took part in the Kharkiv offensive and it's very noticeable that most of Ukraine's tanks and armor during the operation have been provided by NATO countries (Humvees, Kirpi MRAPs from Turkey, M113s,etc) Most of the armor that Ukraine originally had has likely been destroyed. Without NATO, Ukraine wouldn't have been able to survive this long, never mind launch a counter offensive.

Now the question is, will the Ukrainians cross the Oskil river, will the Russians actually put up a fight, because they're capable of fighting back but will they ? do they have sufficient numbers ? Will they destroy the bridges across the river ? Because they didn't even destroy one bridge while the Ukrainians advanced. I guess we have to wait and see.

Russia’s war has been a blunder border-lining now on disaster.

Iran and it’s allies took back 70% of Syria and 80-90% of the population when they were surrounded in Damascus and rebels were shelling the royal palace.

Russia can barely hold on to Luchnask and Donbass provinces with 300K.

There were flashes of Russian incompetence in Syria that foreshadowed this (a Russian general stepping on a known landmine was the creme de le creme ). Even the Russian airforce credited for turning the tide of Syrian war had many erroneous or ineffective air strikes compared to western counterparts.

Of course the Goebbels and Baghdad Bob’s of this board will spin this as a positive for Russia and all part of some grand master plan. These guys minds cannot cope with loss in any shape or form.

But the only tool left Russia has is to cut off gas to Europe and hope for pain in winter.

 

[Stryker1982]

I just read a report yesterday. Russia has 170,000 troops in Ukraine. Their main issue is a lack of manpower. I don't understand why Putin doesn't just declare war and mobilize the 2 million reserves that Russia has.

You treat people as if it was a video game. This is real life, mobilizing reserves means conscription, by calling up the regular people (who are not well trained at all for this war) and deploying them. Reserves are reserves for a reason, they have little training. This has serious political ramifications for the country and calls into question Putins political career and the government itself. Have you considered that many don't want to fight this war?

From the available evidence it seems apparent that a significant numbers of foreign volunteers/mercenaries took part in the Kharkiv offensive and it's very noticeable that most of Ukraine's tanks and armor during the operation have been provided by NATO countries (Humvees, Kirpi MRAPs from Turkey, M113s,etc) IMost of the armor that Ukraine originally had has likely been destroyed. Without NATO, Ukraine wouldn't have been able to survive this long.

Who cares. The only thing that matters is winning and if they need foreign support for it, then they don't give a damn even if they lose 3:1 casualties. The only thing that matters is winning. Perhaps Russia should have re-considered and taken seriously the fact that NATO would provide this level of support. That's called a blunder. You know what they really need? They need some Iranian UCAVs and they need several hundreds of them and a pipeline/lend-lease of smart munitions from Iran for them.

The Russians are not able to advanced in Kherson region with the current situation, they are dealing with lower manpower then before and lower equipment level than before. They are not able to launch rapid offensives. It really calls into question whether or not can Russia hold on to what it has in the next 2-3 years without shifting its economy to a wartime economy, and calling on available men forcibly. The chances of this is very low for Putin to make such a decision. Their are also 5th columns in the country who can use that against him.

I wanted them to see success but it doesn't look good for them. I think it would be hard for UKR to get back all its territory, but I do believe the chances of RUS getting to Kiev or Odessa is very slim anymore.

 

[sha ah]

This is why Russia needs a large fleet of UAVs. The US insists and swears that Russia bought Iranian drones but we haven't seen any deployed. It's been over a month since they were supposedly shipped to Russia, so I'm starting to think it was all propaganda by the US.

Ukraine seizes the initiative in the east

A lightning offensive near Kharkiv could mark a turning-point in the war

www.economist.com

 

[sha ah]

Well in Russia the war has overwhelming support. I don't think there would be much kickback against atleast partial mobilization, like 500,000 troops. I mean isn't Putin supposed to be a dictator ? I don't personally understand the reluctance. Many Russian politicians have been begging for it for months now.

Russia either needs a large fleet of UAVs to counteract the stalemate in the air and/or they need to mobilize their reserves in order to win this war. It's really extraordinary what they've been able to achieve being outnumbered but there's only so much you can do with 170,000 men on a 900 km front. In Iraq the US had 370,000 troops on a 200-300 km front and Iraq had been bombed for 12 years prior and didn't have support from anyone.

Anyways, supposedly the first shipment of Iranian drones were sent on the 10th of August, but why haven't we seen them deployed yet then ? I'm starting to think that it's just a make believe propaganda story promoted by the US.

I'm not sure what the Russians are going to do but all their troops are now behind the Oskil river which extends south east into the Seversky Donets river. Sooner or later the Russians have to draw a line in the sand and put up a fight, otherwise they're going to be pushed all the way back to the Russian border. At the same time, this war has had alot of ups and downs. Russia is down but not out and the Ukrainians still have ALOT of work to do.

You treat people as if it was a video game. This is real life, mobilizing reserves means conscription, by calling up the regular people (who are not well trained at all for this war) and deploying them. Reserves are reserves for a reason, they have little training. This has serious political ramifications for the country and calls into question Putins political career and the government itself. Have you considered that many don't want to fight this war?

Who cares. The only thing that matters is winning and if they need foreign support for it, then they don't give a damn even if they lose 3:1 casualties. The only thing that matters is winning. Perhaps Russia should have re-considered and taken seriously the fact that NATO would provide this level of support. That's called a blunder. You know what they really need? They need some Iranian UCAVs and they need several hundreds of them and a pipeline/lend-lease of smart munitions from Iran for them.

The Russians are not able to advanced in Kherson region with the current situation, they are dealing with lower manpower then before and lower equipment level than before. They are not able to launch rapid offensives. It really calls into question whether or not can Russia hold on to what it has in the next 2-3 years without shifting its economy to a wartime economy, and calling on available men forcibly. The chances of this is very low for Putin to make such a decision. Their are also 5th columns in the country who can use that against him.

I wanted them to see success but it doesn't look good for them. I think it would be hard for UKR to get back all its territory, but I do believe the chances of RUS getting to Kiev or Odessa is very slim anymore.

 

[TheImmortal]

You mean like when theirs artillery duels between HTS and SAA and they target a chicken farm instead?

Just look at the footage of their air strikes the Russian MOD publishes back during height of counteroffensive of the War. Literally almost every bomb was off target. The target would be the building and the bomb would explode 50 meters away.

Then there was the horrendous rescue operation of the SU-22 co pilot that was shot down by Turkey.

I just read a report yesterday. Russia has 170,000 troops in Ukraine. Their main issue is a lack of manpower. I don't understand why Putin doesn't just declare war and mobilize the 2 million reserves that Russia has.

Russia started with around 32 BTGs so 320,000. Assuming by now there have been 75K KIA + WIA that leaves them with 245K plus the troops that have to rotate out for rest and reassembly of units that are no longer battle capable.

So I would imagine there are still 200K troops in Ukraine. But your opponent has done full mobilization. It would be like if Iraq never did full mobilization even Saddam’s 500,000+ soldiers wouldn’t have been enough in face of Iran’s 1M+ army during Iran-Iraq war.

But Putin is stuck playing politics and reality is he cannot call a draft. It would be the end to his rule. He boxed himself in calling this a military operation and not a war.

He didn’t listen to attack Ukraine back in 2014.
He didn’t listen to guys like me who criticized his desperate approach to be seen as equal of the west.
He kissed their a$$ for so many years like a girl trying to get back with her ex.

The entire time the West was moving the chips in place for this move which culminated in the CIA/MI6 operation to do a color revolution in Ukraine.

Well in Russia the war has overwhelming support. I don't think there would be much kickback against atleast partial mobilization, like 500,000 troops. I mean isn't Putin supposed to be a dictator ? I don't personally understand the reluctance. Many Russian politicians have been begging for it for months now.

It doesn’t have overwhelming support. It has the book 1984 level of support. Which means criticizing the war means your demoted, arrested, or slip out of a window. But with the recent Ukrainian advances we have seen even officials within the Douma begin criticizing Putin along with the outer cities.

The FSB and Military still support him so he should be safe. But his rule is getting long in the tooth and whatever health problems he has is taking its toll.

 

[Stryker1982]

Well in Russia the war has overwhelming support. I don't think there would be much kickback against atleast partial mobilization, like 500,000 troops. I mean isn't Putin supposed to be a dictator ? I don't personally understand the reluctance. Many Russian politicians have been begging for it for months now.

I'm afraid not bro. He doesn't want the Vietnam experience. Obviously in a perfect world it would help dramatically, but their are drawbacks, very bad drawbacks.

This is not the case, the low amount of volunteers in this large country is all the indication for that. People support their troops but many of them by no means want to do actual fighting. Similar to Americans, many support them but wouldn't want to be drafted. This is the difference. When we had war, we had so many volunteers that wanted to fight I doubt they could logistically handle all of those people, this is not seen in Russia, their is no lineup of people. Remember how it was different for us. We had so many that wanted to fight in Syria, but a cap was put in place. I assume to limit involvement and because of the logistical burden it would provide but anyways, we don't see this in Russia.

He could've annihilated the UKR army in 2014 if he made that choice. Now he is probably regretting it.

Russia either needs a large fleet of UAVs to counteract the stalemate in the air and/or they need to mobilize their reserves in order to win this war. It's really extraordinary what they've been able to achieve being outnumbered but there's only so much you can do with 170,000 men on a 900 km front. In Iraq the US had 370,000 troops on a 200-300 km front and Iraq had been bombed for 12 years prior and didn't have support from anyone.

Here's the question you should be asking then. Why didn't the military planners foresee this possibility? Why is the Russian AF so ineffectual and how do we change this? This is called a planning blunder. As you stated, look how the US grinded them down first, and then wiped them out. This whole time UKR was just getting stronger since 2014. These calculations should have been made in the upper staff, that if the rapid plan in the first week does not succeed, what would be the risks and worse case scenario that could happen.

Putins problem to me appears that he wasn't hawkish ENOUGH on Ukraine or the relations he has with the west. Putin is not as anti-west as some of his counterparts, and this was the problem. Instead of recognizing the UKR would be getting stronger and eventually would be used against him, he tried to balance with the west.
Now think about what the Soviet Union under Brezhnev would've done. He would've mobilized 200,000 men in 2014 and moved in immediately after the color revolution. The reigns of several more "balanced" approached people with the west caused them to fall, they lacked the pro-activeness of the IRGC. Ukraine is their backyard, how this has happened is shocking and very dangerous for Russia.

 

[sha ah]

Most of the tanks I've seen lately are from Poland and other former Soviet states now part of NATO. There seems to be a large number of M113s, Humvees, Kirpi MRAPs from Turkey and some BMPs. Yes there are some Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles left, but atleast half of what i see is from NATO.

honestly i only see artillery and light weapon, the tanks are Ukrainian , (even at the time of USSR best Soviet tanks were made in Ukraine) and the aircraft are old soviet era aircraft donated to Ukraine by European in hope of replacing them with American ones) if those 50 country really put their industrial might behind Ukraine , you only can imagine what would have happened looking at Russia performance right now

 

[TheImmortal]

Here's the question you should be asking then. Why didn't the military planners foresee this possibility? Why is the Russian AF so ineffectual and how do we change this? This is called a planning blunder.

Corruption and Paranoia. That’s what caused Russian military state today.

Much like Assad’s military....commanders were selected based on loyalty not capability. On top of that they were still following flawed Soviet Union philosophy when they no longer had the massive arms and personnel that philosophy required to be even remotely successful.

Lastly they attacked a country that was literally the military engine of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine has the largest land army in Europe and despite its own corruption problems they were able to reassemble themselves post 2014 and were always capable fighters.

This has major security implications for Iran and China. The last time the West got cocky they attacked Afghanistan - Iraq - Libya - Syria in short succession and scheduled a color revolution in Iran that failed.

We do not need US/NATO thinking that Iran and China are also paper tigers.

As for Russia, once Putin dies...Russia will fall to the West and whatever Yes men they already have planted in the Kremlin to succeed him. I don’t believe for one second that Dmitri who kissed Obama’s *** when he was Russian President or Shoigu Putin’s right hand General are the ultra nationalist they want people to believe.

There is another Gorbachev coming.

 

[Hack-Hook]

The Russians can't use their airforce effectively because of Ukrainian air defense systems. They can't effectively target the Ukrainian air defense systems because for the most part they're not active. Ukrainians hide them and rely on spotters on the ground and NATO satellite and AWACS intelligence to direct them. That makes them even more dangerous because they can basically pop out of nowhere.

the role of SEAD is clear and Ukraine air-defense will become useless if Russia use appropriate weapon instead of those useless Iron Bomb

Well in Russia the war has overwhelming support. I don't think there would be much kickback against atleast partial mobilization, like 500,000 troops. I mean isn't Putin supposed to be a dictator ? I don't personally understand the reluctance. Many Russian politicians have been begging for it for months now.

that is the official narrative , but how much it aligned with reality on the ground ?

 

[sha ah]

The Americans said Russia had deployed 150-200,000 troops at the start of the invasion. A report yesterday said Russia has 170,000 troops in Ukraine. So I don't know about 300,000. You could be right but not from what I've seen.

Just look at the footage of their air strikes the Russian MOD publishes back during height of counteroffensive of the War. Literally almost every bomb was off target. The target would be the building and the bomb would explode 50 meters away.

Then there was the horrendous rescue operation of the SU-22 co pilot that was shot down by Turkey.



Russia started with around 32 BTGs so 320,000. Assuming by now there have been 75K KIA + WIA that leaves them with 245K plus the troops that have to rotate out for rest and reassembly of units that are no longer battle capable.

So I would imagine there are still 200K troops in Ukraine. But your opponent has done full mobilization. It would be like if Iraq never did full mobilization even Saddam’s 500,000+ soldiers wouldn’t have been enough in face of Iran’s 1M+ army during Iran-Iraq war.

But Putin is stuck playing politics and reality is he cannot call a draft. It would be the end to his rule. He boxed himself in calling this a military operation and not a war.

He didn’t listen to attack Ukraine back in 2014.
He didn’t listen to guys like me who criticized his desperate approach to be seen as equal of the west.
He kissed their a$$ for so many years like a girl trying to get back with her ex.

The entire time the West was moving the chips in place for this move which culminated in the CIA/MI6 operation to do a color revolution in Ukraine.



It doesn’t have overwhelming support. It has the book 1984 level of support. Which means criticizing the war means your demoted, arrested, or slip out of a window. But with the recent Ukrainian advances we have seen even officials within the Douma begin criticizing Putin along with the outer cities.

The FSB and Military still support him so he should be safe. But his rule is getting long in the tooth and whatever health problems he has is taking its toll.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Most of the tanks I've seen lately are from Poland and other former Soviet states now part of NATO. There seems to be a large number of M113s, Humvees, Kirpi MRAPs from Turkey and some BMPs. Yes there are some Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles left, but atleast half of what i see is from NATO.

as far as i'm aware Poland and Czech republic donated around 200-300 old T-72 tank the rest are Ukrainian and nobody else sent any tanks (in fact T-72 of Ukraine army are actually upgraded , thats not the case of Czech or Poland Tanks they are M varriant (it seems the number of donated tanks is 240-250 , 40 from Czech the rest from Poland)

T-72MExport version, similar to T-72A but lacking composite armour (decreasing the weight to 37 tonnes), much simpler fire control system, and usually supplied with inferior ammunition compared to the Soviet army standard. Also built in Poland and former Czechoslovakia.