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Iranian Chill Thread

You're wasting bandwidth talking to @Hack-Hook

When he starts off, you should spam "BUT MUH-!"


Something similar happened in al-Tanf in Syria years ago with amerikwans.

They got geolocated with their exercise phone apps and I think there was an attack.


A coup in Azerbaijan in long overdue. I think even as we speak, sleepers in Azerbaijan are at work undermining it's regime.

I only pray for a Third Chechen War in russia soon, one that ousts them from the North Caucasus forever.

Not exactly. Aliyev's departure from Baku is not in favor of Iran either. The regime does Moscow's bidding in the region at best which does not hurt Iran the way it would otherwise. Aliyev's father Heydar Aliyev was a KGB officer who invented PKK to threaten Turkish existance during cold war (USSR vs CENTO). Aliyev's fall will give birth to a power vacuum which happens in countries with no actual nationhood heritage (countries all around Iran). This will be used by US/Israel through Turkey to install an ethnonationalist regime in Baku to cause problems for both Russia up North and Iran in South.

Baku's regime is not hostile toward Iran. They used to be in 90s but it was the USSR's influence they inherited that resulted in Eichibey like characters barking against Iran. Their agenda was Stalinist idea of socialist republic just like in 1940s Moscow tried. They even barked against Iranian Turkics in frustration when we refused to become part of their game. With time passing by and Russia getting more weaker, Baku got closer to Iran to a point that we never saw them causing any problem in Iran. Funny enough they even resisted PKK's designation as a terrorist organization for 22 years after its independence from Russia while Turkey was constantly begging them to do so. How many internet Istanbulu "Bozkurtlar" know this? the same PKK that came from KGB offices in Baku was not even designated a banned outfit in the same republic after decades of independence. If you got to Baku today you will see Kurds everywhere even in police and military.

Azeris are Shias and are hardcore ethnonationalist group. Rise of Azeri nationalism means the history of our radical Shiite militancy and clashes with Turkey will be remembered more and more. Does it hurt Iran ? NO, does it Hurt Turkey ? YES
 
These graphs confirm one thing - Russia has destroyed ALOT of western military equipment and ammunition going into Ukraine consistently - the West supplied until they couldnt supply anymore, at least not to threaten national security...this is also why i dont see why CHina hasnt moved in on Taiwan yet- the west has nevr had a moment like now where they cant reload or reload their weapons quickly or sufficiently- its like they've gone through a war (military equipment burnout and used up)without directly fighting the war...smh

Have you heard that out of 15 German PZH 2000 Howitzers only 5 are still operational, not because they've been damaged or destroyed but because they've broken down and already need maintenance. Apparently the internal components cannot sustain firing 100 shells a day. Russian artillery seems to be superior in this regard. Some western tech really is over rated, honestly.
And this proves all those magnificent eediots on PDF who say that "Russian military equipment is junk' ARE WRONG.

Your right comment here proves that in actual combat, Russian military equipment, if modern, and used by well trained and experienced forces, are good equipment to have, i feel the KA-52 alligator helicopter is another example of great Russian militarty equipment doing a good job, and making it look easy- its been hit a bunch of time by MANPADs, ADs, etc, but often the pilots have ejected to safety, amazing!
 
Baku's regime is not hostile toward Iran. They used to be in 90s but it was the USSR's influence they inherited that resulted in Eichibey like characters barking against Iran. Their agenda was Stalinist idea of socialist republic just like in 1940s Moscow tried. They even barked against Iranian Turkics in frustration when we refused to become part of their game. With time passing by and Russia getting more weaker, Baku got closer to Iran to a point that we never saw them causing any problem in Iran.
BUT let us inspect the bolded part a bit more, because you are being a bit sympathetic towards Azerbaijan? romantic gloriana of old Persian lands? BECAUSE, this same Azerbaijan you're saying isnt a threat has:

1) Allowed the Israeli military or/and intelligence setup bases in AZ AND fly drones out of AZ into Iran. Isnt this hostile towards Iran?

2. Azerbaijani military moves and govt comments has triggered Iranian military to deploy twice to Iran- Azerbaijan border recently, and Iranian military has made several warnings towards Azerbaijan - Does this sound like Iran feels secure about Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan is almost like another "Ukraine" for Iran (as Russia), but luckily Iran can beat Azerbaijan now if needed, but hopefully things wont get worse...enemies plot and activate their revenge during quiet non-assuming times..
 
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I'm sorry I just feel like you're trolling me at this time point. Russia occupies 1/5 of Ukrainian territory, including most of the coastline, which is vital to Ukraine's economy and prosperity. Furthermore Ukraine's entire industrial capacity was based in the eastern sector, now gone.

The Zaparizhia nuclear power plant is the largest in Ukraine providing 20% of the electricity for Ukraine. Russia is now severing that electricity from Ukraine and connecting the power plant to its own grid. Ukraine just sent grain to Lebanon. The buyers rejected it since the grain is 3-4 months old at this point and flour only has a 6 month shelf life. Now the ship is going to Syria to beg Assad to buy their grain.

Russia didn't even mobilize. If Russia had mobilized with 1 million + men instead of 150-200,000 they would have easily won. They simply did not expect Ukraine to put up a fight. US intelligence also thought that Kiev would fall in 3 days. Intelligence is not always 100%, it just is what it is at the time.

Russia is fighting not Ukraine but NATO through Ukraine. By the end of this war, Ukraine will be cut off from the entire coastline and after that if they don't want to negotiate Kharkiv will be surrounded. It's not a matter of if but when.

So you're arguing that Russia wasted its military reputation and resources - in the greater scheme of its fight against NATO - for meagre Ukrainian territory and the overall weakening of the Ukrainian state? That all these military blunders by Russia are somehow compensated because Ukraine has lost many of its industrial and infrastructural capacity?

Please.

Russia failed to topple the Ukrainian government, is now facing an enlarged NATO with many of its member states having pledged to increase their military budget and has been isolated from western science and market that will in the medium to long term significantly impact their economy. In addition, despite short-term Ukrainian weakening, Kiev will end up being firmly in the political sphere of the West. All these Russian fears of its neighbouring country being taken away from its traditional sphere of influence will ironically come true. And eventually, Ukraine will develop its own military industry which is going to be a thorn in the eye of Moscow of epic proportions.

And all this because Putin and its fellow incompetent intelligence officials in all their hubris completely overestimated the capabilities of their military.

Are you forgetting about the disastrous American blunder in Afghanistan recently. 3 TRILLION down the drain, for what ? for nothing. They trained an army for 20 years, it lasted 1.5 months. What do you call that glorious ? victorious ? War is not always straightforward. Stop buying into US made video games and Hollywood movies.

The same Afghanistan that the Soviets also failed to stabilize through their military intervention after spending huge sums of money?

You see, the difference between Russia and the US is that the latter can waste $3 trillion without its economy flinching. You don't need to lecture me about watching Hollywood movies. I've had discussion about these topics with people that can actually formulate a professional analysis without arguments like ''if Russia really wanted to defeat Ukraine, it could have done so after mobilizing its population''.

Russia is a dying empire. Same as the US. But the latter is far more sophisticated in its military dealings than Russia will ever be.

Again war is not straightforward. WW2 was an absolute disaster for the Soviets at first but in the end they came out on top as a global superpower. You realize that out of 15 German Pzh 2000 howitzers, only 5 are still operational ? Why because of maintenance issues. Apparently firing the howitzer 100 times a day puts too much of a strain on its internal mechanisms.

>It's quite clear that Russia has failed to topple the Ukrainian government, and will not be able to >make any worthwhile territorial advances that would prevent Ukraine from posing any threat to >it.

It came out as a global superpower because Europe (and Asia) destroyed itself after centuries of fighting; not because its power grew organically, And after stumbling in this position of being a superpower - not in the least due to support it received from the United States through the Lend Lease Act - it couldn't even consolidate and hold this status for more than 5 decades. The Romans, Iranians, Chinese, even the Mongols and Turks have a recorded history of being superpowers for centuries - the Russians completely crumbled after 50 years.

You see, there are many similarities between how the Germans screw up their invasion of the Soviet Empire and Russia blundering in Ukraine: both underestimated the vastness of the territory they were trying to capture, failed to accurately estimate the manpower of their opponent and overlooked the international assistance it would face on the battlefield (Ukraine with its support from the West and the Soviets similarly receiving American equipment).

I want Russia to prevail in this whole operation against Ukraine - for the sake of Iran's interests - but I'm not blind to its structural weaknesses that have now been exposed big time.
 
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So you're arguing that Russia wasted its military reputation and resources - in the greater scheme of its fight against NATO - for meagre Ukrainian territory and the overall weakening of the Ukrainian state? That all these military blunders by Russia are somehow compensated because Ukraine has lost many of its industrial and infrastructural capacity?

Please.

Russia failed to topple the Ukrainian government, is now facing an enlarged NATO with many of its member states having pledged to increase their military budget and has been isolated from western science and market that will in the medium to long term significantly impact their economy. In addition, despite short-term Ukrainian weakening, Kiev will end up being firmly in the political sphere of the West. All these Russian fears of its neighbouring country being taken away from its traditional sphere of influence will ironically come true. And eventually, Ukraine will develop its own military industry which is going to be a thorn in the eye of Moscow of epic proportions.

And all this because Putin and its fellow incompetent intelligence officials in all their hubris completely overestimated the capabilities of their military.



The same Afghanistan that the Soviets also failed to stabilize through their military intervention after spending huge sums of money?

You see, the difference between Russia and the US is that the latter can waste $3 trillion without its economy flinching. You don't need to lecture me about watching Hollywood movies. I've had discussion about these topics with people that can actually formulate a professional analysis without arguments like ''if Russia really wanted to defeat Ukraine, it could have done so after mobilizing its population''.

Russia is a dying empire. Same as the US. But the latter is far more sophisticated in its military dealings than Russia will ever be.



It came out as a global superpower because Europe (and Asia) destroyed itself after centuries of fighting; not because its power grew organically, And after stumbling in this position of being a superpower - not in the least due to support it received from the United States through the Lend Lease Act - it couldn't even consolidate and hold this status for more than 5 decades. The Romans, Iranians, Chinese, even the Mongols and Turks have a recorded history of being superpowers for centuries - the Russians completely crumbled after 50 years.

You see, there are many similarities between how the Germans screw up their invasion of the Soviet Empire and Russia blundering in Ukraine: both underestimated the vastness of the territory they were trying to capture, failed to accurately estimate the manpower of its opponent and overlooked the international assistance it would face on the battlefield (Ukraine with its support from the West and the Soviets similarly receiving American equipment).

I want Russia to prevail in this whole operation against Ukraine - for the sake of Iran's interests - but I'm not blind to its structural weaknesses that have now been exposed big time.
One cannot pretend everything is okay after 6 months of war. Did anyone here realistically think Russia would still be fighting after 6 months? Or did everyone expect Russia to have taken over the whole country by now. @sha ah
 
Russia has impressed all the western military analists and is undoubtedly winning... just because it has taken longer than some thought doesn´t change anything.

It should also be noted that if the western allies hadn´t emptied their military stocks into Ukraine, this war would be over by now. At any rate, the writing is on the wall.... Ukraine is finished.

They have lost every battel and their economy is none existant. It´s only a matter of time before they fully collaps.
 
BUT let us inspect the bolded part a bit more, because you are being a bit sympathetic towards Azerbaijan? romantic gloriana of old Persian lands? BECAUSE, this same Azerbaijan you're saying isnt a threat has:

1) Allows Israeli military or/and intelligence setup bases in AZ AND fly drones out of AZ into Iran. Isnt this hostile towards Iran?

2. Azerbaijani military moves and govt comments has triggered Iranian military to deploy twice to Iran- Azerbaijan border recently, and Iranian military has made several warnings towards Azerbaijan - Does this sound like Iran feels secure about Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan is almost like another "Ukraine" for Iran (as Russia), but luckily Iran can beat Azerbaijan now if needed, but hopefully things wont get worse...enemies plot and activate their revenge during quiet non-assuming times..

Ok I will ask you has Azerbaijan republic ever ran any serious operation against Iran? Does MEK, PJAK, ASMLA Movement operate from their land? The SANAM movement hosted by Turkies Intelligence in Azerbaijan exists on paper and never gained momentum among people of the republic. Remember they are a small nation that needs to maintain a balance between three larger powers around them, Russia, Iran and Turkey. So while SANAM is hosted by Turkey in Baku against Iran, you have Iran also supporting Shiite religious groups in Azerbaijan, who Aliyev regime does not object towards, they just casually bans them. Current or recent tension between republic and Iran is more of a greater game of regional politics where PGCC, Turkey, Israel, US vs Russia, Iran, China block is taking shape. Azerbaijan is a visa free country for Iranians and no Iranian gets discriminated there by the people.

Remember few things about Azeribaijanis from the republic:

1) They are Shiites, hardcore types.
2) Their government came from Soviet intelligence officers turned corrupt dictators who inherited the anti Iran and anti Turkish sentiment which is why this republic at one time was simultaneously supporting Elchibey/SANAM against Iran and PKK against Turkey. More to do with anti CENTO sentiment.
3) We have very recent examples of them catching Iranian dissidents and handing them back to Iranian authorities.
4) They refused hosting MEK, PJAK, Shahis, Communists of Iran.
5) Last but not least, they are Iranians who were taken from Iran by Tsar Russia, they did not fight any war with rest of the Iran.
6) They have problems with Armenia and their border incursions through UAVs only happened in war time.
7) Aliyev regime knows very well that in case of conflict with Iran their own republic will entangle itself into a civil war between religious and non religious factions. Being a small young nation they can't afford that.
 
just because it has taken longer than some thought doesn´t change anything.

Speaking of which, I see everyone repeating in unison that Russian planners were expecting a much speedier and less costly victory. That since military action is still ongoing, it proves Russia miscalculated and underestimated Ukrainian capabilities grossly. Note that this commonly held belief is a regular feature of western reporting on the war as well.

What I've never come across though, and I mean not once, is a concrete piece of evidence that Moscow was actually anticipating a rapid campaign. I mean, since the idea is being repeated so frequently and with such assurance, those subscribing to it ought to be able to produce some kind of a statement, some declaration, some announcement from a Russian official prior or at the onset of the war that corroborates the allegation, right?

And yet, despite my asking several times, nobody could meet the challenge and show me such evidence. It's still an open challenge, by the way: if you can find any Russian statement to that effect, I'd be glad to acknowledge it.

From all I can gather, there's no reason to assume Russia expected anything but the relatively protracted operation it is conducting right now, as well as the witnessed level of resilience on the part of its adversary.
 
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Messed up how most countries cannot even build this today.

Much like Apple and Samsung have consumed the smartphone market, same is true too for high value tech.

Look at aircraft....Boeing and Airbus

Semiconductor....handful of top companies

Jet engines: Pratt....Rolls Royce...etc

At this point it is way easier for a country to buy weapons within Western Ecosystem. In the past it was Western or Soviet. Even China is still placing new orders with Boeing/Airbus with regards to civilian airplanes.

Now it’s just Western - Russia building for Russia and handful of other countries - China building for China.

And countries like Russia and China rather than helping anti imperial countries like Iran would rather play politics with their tech.

At the end of the day that is the biggest problem with non-aligned powers. Unlike their western counter parts they didn’t build a military and economic alliance with each other to rival NATO + The Quad

Iran - Russia - China should be sharing and cooperating much more closely than are now. But while Iran is receptive to this notion, the other two are more lone wolf. We are moving in the right direction due to recent events, but far from realizing the full potential.

One issue is the Arabs keep dangling their dollars in front of Russia and China to keep them more neutral vis a vi Iran.
 
Could those Shaheds merely been the seed cloud versions? We know they have used Shaheds for cloud seeding before.
 

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