Iranian Chill Thread

[Cancerous Tumor]

• Cease fire with conflict lines frozen
• Cease fire with Russia pulling back to 02/24 frontlines
• Russia taking control of separatist republics and land bridge to Crimea
  • Also taking south Ukraine
  • Also taking oddessa
  • Also capturing all the way to Moldova separatist border and capturing entire Ukrainian coastline
• Capturing all of Eastern Ukraine (including Kiev or Kiev in a East& Berlin/German post WW2 conflict map)

Pick whatever you think is likely out of those.

Outcomes can change, those are the more likely ones at the moment.

Let me put it this way Ukraine war now is not about Ukraine it became question of NATO history mainly it's comparable to Syria and just players changed teams here.

I looked your outcomes and some in my mind all ether leads to moral problem or logic problem.US erased same question during WW2 and I really for sake of civilians scare to go to that.

Ukraine wins bad outcome very bad outcome
Russia wins moral problem
NATO/Turkey solution moral problem and logic problem

 

[TheImmortal]

To be more vague, strong likelihood Russia will gain new territory (the extent is not known)
Russia will remain isolated from Europe
Relations with all its "friends" are sour. Russia will seek to improve relations with other nations in Asia, and South America as a result.

My guess Ukraine will attempt to retake its territory lost over the next few decades with several more wars to come after this one depending on the result of this one.

The issue here is energy economics of Russia:

So the die has been cast EU will seek to drop Russian oil/gas over the coming decade(s) and switch to renewables and other natural gas and oil sources. This assumes this is a long term fissure in Russia vs Euro relations and not something that gets patched over with a peace deal and some handshakes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519006985768865792

The elephant in the room is Iran at #1 in natural gas and Russia at #2 (reserves of course).

So if Russia has to find new clients it will be targeting similar clients as Iran especially if Iranian LNG projects become a reality in the next 10-15 years.

Could Iran supply gas to Europe? It’s possible in the future—requires necessary infrastructure and a increase in Iranian gas production.

So the issue becomes if we imagine a world where the West shuns Russian oil/gas (thought experiment) then Russia loses a large client base and will be competing with Iran/Qatar for the remaining clients. A consortium of clients will eventually fill the Europe need.

For Russia over half of its budget is from energy and 75% of its exports is energy. The west is aware of this. Putin is almost 70 years old, who is the successor Demitri? Shoigu? A council?

West thinks it can tolerate the short term pain (energy prices) for the long term reward (a Yeltsin like ruler and a weakened Russia).

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

To be more vague, strong likelihood Russia will gain new territory (the extent is not known)
Russia will remain isolated from Europe
Relations with all its "friends" are sour. Russia will seek to improve relations with other nations in Asia, and South America as a result.

My guess Ukraine will attempt to retake its territory lost over the next few decades with several more wars to come after this one depending on the result of this one.

Russia fighting against NATO supply lines and time is against Russia and It's huge problem bc Russia can't wait and they can while still Russia has upper hand in Ukraine.

Based on US actions during end of WW2 this option is scary too.

 

[TheImmortal]

Let me put it this way Ukraine war now is not about Ukraine it became question of NATO history mainly it's comparable to Syria and just players changed teams here.

I looked your outcomes and some in my mind all ether leads to moral problem or logic problem.US erased same question during WW2 and I really for sake of civilians scare to go to that.

Ukraine wins bad outcome very bad outcome
Russia wins moral problem
NATO/Turkey solution moral problem and logic problem

The issue now is you have Finland and Sweden contemplating NATO ascension. That leaves Bulgaria and Ukraine as not part of NATO (if it happens). That’s a large border to have NATO bases/missiles/interceptors lining it.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Russia fighting against NATO supply lines and time is against Russia and It's huge problem bc Russia can't wait and they can while still Russia has upper hand in Ukraine.

Based on US actions during end of WW2 one is scary too.

Don't pay attention to clownish suggestions that the Russian political system is not solid enough to have prepared viable options for Putin's succession. The risk to see Putin replaced by a Yeltsin type of character, who was a pure product of the specific political circumstances prevailing at the time, is close to zero. Another ridiculous, improvised bit of nonsense by the resident US-apologist who is disingenuously trying to embellish future perspectives of the west and blacken prospects for Russia. This alone should tell you what sort of a con artist you're conversing with.

Other smart users have noticed it as well.

 

[Stryker1982]

The issue here is energy economics of Russia:

So the die has been cast EU will seek to drop Russian oil/gas over the coming decade(s) and switch to renewables and other natural gas and oil sources. This assumes this is a long term fissure in Russia vs Euro relations and not something that gets patched over with a peace deal and some handshakes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519006985768865792

The elephant in the room is Iran at #1 in natural gas and Russia at #2 (reserves of course).

So if Russia has to find new clients it will be targeting similar clients as Iran especially if Iranian LNG projects become a reality in the next 10-15 years.

Could Iran supply gas to Europe? It’s possible in the future—requires necessary infrastructure and a increase in Iranian gas production.

So the issue becomes if we imagine a world where the West shuns Russian oil/gas (thought experiment) then Russia loses a large client base and will be competing with Iran/Qatar for the remaining clients. A consortium of clients will eventually fill the Europe need.

For Russia over half of its budget is from energy and 75% of its exports is energy. The west is aware of this. Putin is almost 70 years old, who is the successor Demitri? Shoigu? A council?

West thinks it can tolerate the short term pain (energy prices) for the long term reward (a Yeltsin like ruler and a weakened Russia).

The hope would be basically the other developing countries of the world, will have ever increasing demands for oil and gas, so while the supply is high, the demand is increasing as well. This is very hard to quantify though and unforeseeable over the next 10-15 years.

Another possibility is that Putin is gone in next 5 years and a Yeltsin like leader returns and the gas starts flowing again.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The issue now is you have Finland and Sweden contemplating NATO ascension. That leaves Bulgaria and Ukraine as not part of NATO (if it happens). That’s a large border to have NATO bases/missiles/interceptors lining it.

Wow, frightening for Russia that is. NATO strong!

Especially since the Russians are going to lose Kherson, right? Kherson's very important to fend off the mighty network of NATO bases/missiles/interceptors Russia's soon going to have on her borders. It's the same as with Quseyr and the SAA. I followed the Syrian war religiously, so I know.

Gentlemen, TheImmoral told you so, ten days ago: Kherson's probably a goner. Only luck can save Russia now. If only Putin had made TheImmoral his chief of staff, Russia would've devised true winning plans, rather than relying on these outdated "Soviet era" strategies its incompetent generals are following now. That's why Putin fired them all, CNN said so and TheImmoral confirmed (which is what really makes the news credible).

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

How do you define best possible outcome ? and how do you reach it ?

Don't pay attention to clownish suggestions that the Russian political system is not solid enough to have prepared viable options for Putin's succession. The risk to see Putin replaced by a Yeltsin type of character, who was a pure product of the specific political circumstances prevailing at the time, is close to zero. Another ridiculous, improvised bit of nonsense by the resident US-apologist who is disingenuously trying to embellish future perspectives of the west and blacken prospects for Russia. This alone should tell you what sort of a con artist you're conversing with.

Point is time works in favor of Ukraine and against Russia . (No N scenario)
Russia wouldn't wait for it ...

 

[Shawnee]

Remember when this guy said I am Iranic and I care for Iran.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

The issue now is you have Finland and Sweden contemplating NATO ascension. That leaves Bulgaria and Ukraine as not part of NATO (if it happens). That’s a large border to have NATO bases/missiles/interceptors lining it.

In long term it makes NATO stronger and here now we only focus on Ukraine.it makes Ukraine stronger.

 

[TheImmortal]

How do you define best possible outcome ? and how do you reach it ?


Point is time works in favor of Ukraine and against Russia . (No N scenario)
Russia wouldn't wait for it ...

Russia re-establishing Deterrence with the West/NATO and keeping Ukraine demilitarized and out of NATo is a good start .

Iran managed to foil the Syria plot, but that was thru results on the ground that changed reality. We are waiting for Russia to show the same level results.

The difference here is Ukraine isn’t a bunch of jihadi headchoppers from all around Middle East, they are actual soldiers defending their country (for better or for worse). They are being armed much better than the Jihadi’s could ever hope.

Remember at the time there was reluctance to given Terrorists in Syria manpads for fear of blowback and also Russian forces in the air. There is no such fear anymore in Ukraine, more and more lethal systems are being supplied. This shows a change in Western risk calculus vis a vi Russia.

Either they don’t think Putin will do anything for their continued material support or they are willing to accept consequences if he does (possible world war).

Let’s see how the Donbass offensive goes.

 

[SalarHaqq]

View attachment 838345

Remember when this guy said I am Iranic and I care for Iran.

TheImmoral would wholeheartedly concur with this turtle guy... if we were a bit on the dumber side and he thought we might buy into it.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Russia re-establishing Deterrence with the West/NATO and keeping Ukraine demilitarized and out of NATo is a good start .

Iran managed to foil the Syria plot, but that was thru results on the ground that changed reality. We are waiting for Russia to show the same level results.

Ukraine is now part of NATO without N umbrella.They help it as they would help any none N NATO member against Russia < my opinion !

(Russia pov ) problem is Russia can't afford full scale invasion.it should keep her high tech equipment at home and be ready to defend against possible NATO attack so manpower wise Ukraine has upper hand and will get better ,tech wise Ukraine is improving and its exactly may become Ukraine big problem...

 

[TheImmortal]

Ukraine is now part of NATO without N umbrella.They help it as they would help any no N NATO member against Russia < my opinion !

(Russia pov ) problem is Russia can't afford full scale invasion.it should keep her high tech equipment at home and be ready to defend against possible NATO attack so manpower wise Ukraine has upper hand and will get better ,tech wise Ukraine is improving and its exactly may become Ukraine big problem...

Putin on NATO & Ukraine

Putin on NATO superiority on paper vs Russia (0:25 to 0:45 only).

Soviet doctrine has use of nukes or rather tactical nukes to neutralize NATO superiority (wether qualitative or quantitive) of armaments.

If Finland and Sweden join NATO and Ukraine commits to not joining NATO, does Putin take that as a win?

Certainly Finland and Sweden are much smaller armies than Ukraine and less historical significance to Russia. But also you had another 2 countries join NATO during your military operation to...........stop a country from joining NATO

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Putin on NATO & Ukraine

Putin on NATO superiority on paper vs Russia (0:25 to 0:45 only).

Soviet doctrine has use of nukes or rather tactical nukes to neutralize NATO superiority (wether qualitative or quantitive) of armaments.

If Finland and Sweden join NATO and Ukraine commits to not joining NATO, does Putin take that as a win?

Certainly Finland and Sweden are much smaller armies than Ukraine and less historical significance to Russia. But also you had another 2 countries join NATO during your military operation to...........stop a country from joining NATO

I doubt Russia likes to open another front against NATO. to me Ukraine case is more like a mirror case in Syria with different players NATO and Russia changed position here.Russia have other plans for Ukraine too but the reflection of NATO in eyes of world is worth something.

Finland and Sweden ? anyways they would have joined NATO recent events just made this process faster.

Im not supporting Russia or Ukraine here but as an observer Im amazed so much happened during pass few months and I still fear for end game it seems there is no good end game unless NATO/US somehow fixes the past !!!!