Iran unveils hypersonic weapon 'Fattah'

[serenity]

China has much more than just hq-19 abm. Just in shown abm missile launches with videos and screencap photos, there have been two types. In the modern era we know of the designation platforms - hq-19, hq-26, hq-29. Possibly only one type is used as mainstream and it has both land and sea based variants but it's quite unlikely abm missile only type is limited to one platform. The abm tests are like twice to three times a year for the last decade.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666395361529806851

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666123969806712833

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666503352174125059

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666159237171380260

 

[The SC]

 

[GWXP]

Let's assume Fattah hypersonic missile costs 4mln$, Paveh cruise missile costs 700.000$, Shahed-136 suicide drone costs 20.000$.

Israel has:

1) 12 powerplants with 48 production units producing 100% of Israel's electricity---48 Fattah hypersonic missiles can destroy entire Israeli electricity generating capacity in 6 minutes at a cost of 192mln dollars.

2) 10 desalination plants providing 100% of Israel's water---- Assuming 4 Fattah missiles per one desalination plant and 40 Fattah hypersonic missiles can leave entire Israel without water in 6 minutes at a cost of 160mln dollars.

3) Three major ports: Haifa, Ashdod and Eilat---Assuming 20 missiles per one port and 60 missiles can destroy all major Israeli ports at a cost of 240mln dollars.

4) 9 airbases with 320 combat aircrafts, 4 AWACS, 4 aerial refueling tankers, 14 transport aircrafts ==a total of 342 targets plus airbase infrastructure-----350 Fattah hypersonic missiles at a cost of 1,4bln dollars, supported by 700 Paveh cruise missiles (2 missiles per target) at a cost of 490mln dollars can destroy entire Israeli Air Force on the ground

5) Residence of Israeli Prime-Minister, Knesset, Ministry of Defense----Assuming 3 missiles per one building and 9 missiles can destroy these Residences at a cost of 36mln dollars.

6) Various economic targets-----20.000 Shahed-136s at a cost of 400mln dollars can destroy all economic targets in Israel.

The total cost of destroying Israel: critical infrastructure, Israeli economy, Israeli Government and Israeli Air Force is-----2918mln dollars (507 Fattah missiles, 700 Paveh cruise missiles, 20.000 Shahed-136 drones)

Even if such strike will be only 50% successful it will still be a disaster for Israel

Israel can inflict comparable damage to Iran only with nuclear weapons.

Israeli Orot Rabin powerplant

Ashkelon desalination plant

Port of Haifa

Ramon Air Base in Israel

 

[TheImmortal]

Let's assume Fattah hypersonic missile costs 4mln$, Paveh cruise missile costs 700.000$, Shahed-136 suicide drone costs 20.000$.

No basis for Fattah to cost $4M. Just conjecture. The closest cost we have is Hajizadeh saying Iran can launch Simorgh at $2M(?). Simorgh is just a glorified elgonated missile using Scud cluster engines.

Fattah is Iran’s most advanced BM, we are to believe it only cost 100% more?

Israel has:

1) 12 powerplants with 48 production units producing 100% of Israel's electricity---48 Fattah hypersonic missiles can destroy entire Israeli electricity generating capacity in 6 minutes at a cost of 192mln dollars.

Russia has been attacking the Ukrainian power grid for months. Yet you think Iran can permanently knock out the Israeli one? With 48 missiles? Come on now. Be realistic. Significant impact their power grid? Absolutely. Destroy it completely? Unlikely

2) 10 desalination plants providing 100% of Israel's water---- Assuming 4 Fattah missiles per one desalination plant and 40 Fattah hypersonic missiles can leave entire Israel without water in 6 minutes at a cost of 160mln dollars.

The issue with your calculation is you think hit = total permanent destruction. It doesn’t work that way. Repairs can be made and systems can be brought back online quickly. See Saudi Armaco attack. See Ukrainian war. See Iran-Iraq war.

3) Three major ports: Haifa, Ashdod and Eilat---Assuming 20 missiles per one port and 60 missiles can destroy all major Israeli ports at a cost of 240mln dollars.

Ports are notoriously difficult to destroy, that is why Russia developed a nuclear equipped smart underwater drone to destroy enemy ports.

4) 9 airbases with 320 combat aircrafts, 4 AWACS, 4 aerial refueling tankers, 14 transport aircrafts ==a total of 342 targets plus airbase infrastructure-----350 Fattah hypersonic missiles at a cost of 1,4bln dollars, supported by 700 Paveh cruise missiles (2 missiles per target) at a cost of 490mln dollars can destroy entire Israeli Air Force on the ground

You aren’t destroying entire Israeli airforce, but here I agree missiles can do significant damage.

6) Various economic targets-----20.000 Shahed-136s at a cost of 400mln dollars can destroy all economic targets in Israel.

Unlikely. Israel has the densest radar and air defense envelope on the planet due to the extremely small size it has to cover. Completely different than the massive Ukrainian state. But significant damage is possible.

Even if such strike will be only 50% successful it will still be a disaster for Israel

Even 25% would be unimaginable damage.

Israel can inflict comparable damage to Iran only with nuclear weapons.

Jericho missiles can carry conventional warheads.

So Israel can fire 100+ Jericho missiles at key Iranian targets (oil terminals, major economic centers, important infrastructure). Iran’s anti BM shield is very weak if basically non existent at this point.


Conclusion: both sides can do significant damage to other. But absolute outcomes will not be likely. Both sides will be hobbled but not completely eliminated.

 

[Foinikas]

Let's assume Fattah hypersonic missile costs 4mln$, Paveh cruise missile costs 700.000$, Shahed-136 suicide drone costs 20.000$.

Israel has:

1) 12 powerplants with 48 production units producing 100% of Israel's electricity---48 Fattah hypersonic missiles can destroy entire Israeli electricity generating capacity in 6 minutes at a cost of 192mln dollars.

2) 10 desalination plants providing 100% of Israel's water---- Assuming 4 Fattah missiles per one desalination plant and 40 Fattah hypersonic missiles can leave entire Israel without water in 6 minutes at a cost of 160mln dollars.

3) Three major ports: Haifa, Ashdod and Eilat---Assuming 20 missiles per one port and 60 missiles can destroy all major Israeli ports at a cost of 240mln dollars.

4) 9 airbases with 320 combat aircrafts, 4 AWACS, 4 aerial refueling tankers, 14 transport aircrafts ==a total of 342 targets plus airbase infrastructure-----350 Fattah hypersonic missiles at a cost of 1,4bln dollars, supported by 700 Paveh cruise missiles (2 missiles per target) at a cost of 490mln dollars can destroy entire Israeli Air Force on the ground

5) Residence of Israeli Prime-Minister, Knesset, Ministry of Defense----Assuming 3 missiles per one building and 9 missiles can destroy these Residences at a cost of 36mln dollars.

6) Various economic targets-----20.000 Shahed-136s at a cost of 400mln dollars can destroy all economic targets in Israel.

The total cost of destroying Israel: critical infrastructure, Israeli economy, Israeli Government and Israeli Air Force is-----2918mln dollars (507 Fattah missiles, 700 Paveh cruise missiles, 20.000 Shahed-136 drones)

Even if such strike will be only 50% successful it will still be a disaster for Israel

Israel can inflict comparable damage to Iran only with nuclear weapons.

Israeli Orot Rabin powerplant
View attachment 933357

Ashkelon desalination plant
View attachment 933358

Port of Haifa
View attachment 933359

Ramon Air Base in Israel
View attachment 933360

Yeah but if that happens,it's the end for Iran. It will be heavily bombed,if not nuked,by most of the developed countries in the world. Iran will be considered a threat to the world.

 

[GWXP]

No basis for Fattah to cost $4M. Just conjecture. The closest cost we have is Hajizadeh saying Iran can launch Simorgh at $2M(?). Simorgh is just a glorified elgonated missile using Scud cluster engines.

Fattah is Iran’s most advanced BM, we are to believe it only cost 100% more?


Russia has been attacking the Ukrainian power grid for months. Yet you think Iran can permanently knock out the Israeli one? With 48 missiles? Come on now. Be realistic. Significant impact their power grid? Absolutely. Destroy it completely? Unlikely



The issue with your calculation is you think hit = total permanent destruction. It doesn’t work that way. Repairs can be made and systems can be brought back online quickly. See Saudi Armaco attack. See Ukrainian war. See Iran-Iraq war.



Ports are notoriously difficult to destroy, that is why Russia developed a nuclear equipped smart underwater drone to destroy enemy ports.



You aren’t destroying entire Israeli airforce, but here I agree missiles can do significant damage.



Unlikely. Israel has the densest radar and air defense envelope on the planet due to the extremely small size it has to cover. Completely different than the massive Ukrainian state. But significant damage is possible.



Even 25% would be unimaginable damage.


Jericho missiles can carry conventional warheads.

So Israel can fire 100+ Jericho missiles at key Iranian targets (oil terminals, major economic centers, important infrastructure). Iran’s anti BM shield is very weak if basically non existent at this point.


Conclusion: both sides can do significant damage to other. But absolute outcomes will not be likely. Both sides will be hobbled but not completely eliminated.

No basis for Fattah to cost $4M. Just conjecture. The closest cost we have is Hajizadeh saying Iran can launch Simorgh at $2M(?). Simorgh is just a glorified elgonated missile using Scud cluster engines.

Fattah is Iran’s most advanced BM, we are to believe it only cost 100% more?

^^ I estimated the cost of that missile at 4mln$ based on the known price of US Pershing II missile.

One Pershing II missile (1770km range) cost 4mln$ in 1986, and using inflation calculator it is equivalent to 10mln$ in 2021 dollars....Iran produces missiles on a much larger scale than US and production inputs in Iran are much cheaper than in US, so I assume one Iranian Khaybarshekan missile (1450km range) costs around 3,5mln$ per unit.

Fattah missile is like Khaybarshekan with a HGV, so it can cost roughly 4-4,5mln$

Russia has been attacking the Ukrainian power grid for months. Yet you think Iran can permanently knock out the Israeli one? With 48 missiles? Come on now. Be realistic. Significant impact their power grid? Absolutely. Destroy it completely? Unlikely

^^ Russia didn't aim to destroy entire Ukraine's electricity generation capacity.

First of all 55% of Ukraine's electricity is generated at 4 nuclear power plants and you can't attack a nuclear power plant because of environmental damage.

Second, if Russia destroys entire electricity generation capacity of Ukraine, this will create a humanitarian catastrophe in a relatively large, industrialized and urbanized European country and this will be a major war crime.

Currently, the only goal of Russia in this war is occupation of the Donbass region and I dont know how destroying Ukrainian nuclear power plants can help to achieve that goal.

For comparison, back in 1991, US destroyed entire electricity generation capacity of Iraq and Iraq can't recover from that war even today.

Israel is a very small country with a very concentrated electricity generation infastructure. Only 48 production units generate 100% of Israel's electricity. Only 48 direct hits can take them out permanently, and judging from the fact that it takes 2-3 years to build a new power plant, it will take many months if not years to rebuild those production units.

And Israeli economy will suffer multibillion dollar damage in time when they will have to live without electricity.

 

[Messerschmitt]

I wrote this on the 'Iranian Chill Thread' about whether Fattah's RV is a MaRV or HGV:

Imo, Fattah's RV doesn't seem to fit perfectly in either 'category'. It is neither your 'typical' MaRV nor your 'typical' HGV. Unlike most, if not all, other MaRVs in its range class, Fattah's RV is better optimized for both speed (sustainer motor) and maneuverability (TVC + fins). Compared to most HGVs which tend to be boost-gliders, it somewhat emphasizes terminal speed over maneuverability (low-lift RV) as it has its own TVC sustainer motor. Instead of generating high lift it utilizes thrust vector control to conduct evasive maneuvers while maintaining higher speed. I'd say it's closer to being a very-high-end MaRV than a 'true' HGV, even though this isn't a very accurate description.

 

[HGV]

Let's assume Fattah hypersonic missile costs 4mln$, Paveh cruise missile costs 700.000$, Shahed-136 suicide drone costs 20.000$.

I think that's too expensive, it's essentially a modified Kheybar Shekan (<1m diameter and 10-13m length) with a new warhead. I doubt it costs even >$1m. Khorramshahr-4 is undoubtedly much more expensive than Fattah (maybe $2-4m).

Paveh and Shahed-136 costs seem reasonable

4) 9 airbases with 320 combat aircrafts, 4 AWACS, 4 aerial refueling tankers, 14 transport aircrafts ==a total of 342 targets plus airbase infrastructure-----350 Fattah hypersonic missiles at a cost of 1,4bln dollars, supported by 700 Paveh cruise missiles (2 missiles per target) at a cost of 490mln dollars can destroy entire Israeli Air Force on the ground

With 11 BMs against Al Assad airbase (no air-defence) how much damage did that do? Airbases are massive sprawling sites with hundreds of targets

5) Residence of Israeli Prime-Minister, Knesset, Ministry of Defense----Assuming 3 missiles per one building and 9 missiles can destroy these Residences at a cost of 36mln dollars.

6) Various economic targets-----20.000 Shahed-136s at a cost of 400mln dollars can destroy all economic targets in Israel.

Realistically Shahed-136 will be easily intercepted with >90% interception rate

The total cost of destroying Israel: critical infrastructure, Israeli economy, Israeli Government and Israeli Air Force is-----2918mln dollars (507 Fattah missiles, 700 Paveh cruise missiles, 20.000 Shahed-136 drones)

Overall you vastly overestimate the destructive impact of a small 0.8m diameter Fattah with c. 400-500kg warhead

IMO the best use for Fattah is to target Israeli ABM sites to clear the way for Khorramshahr to cause the destruction you talk about. A salvo of 50-100 Fattah missiles to take out Israeli ABM radars (with saturation drone attacks to confuse their radars and complement the anti-ABM attack) followed by salvos of 3-5x Khorramshahr-4 (some with 80 submunitions each) per large target would have a much greater impact

And if the Fattah salvos don't work Iran can resort to saturation attacks of Shahab class missiles to deplete Israeli ABM interceptors before using Khorramshahr and Sejjil

In the end the conclusion is the same, Iran can impose substantial damage to Israel

 

[GWXP]

I think that's too expensive, it's essentially a modified Kheybar Shekan (<1m diameter and 10-13m length) with a new warhead. I doubt it costs even >$1m. Khorramshahr-4 is undoubtedly much more expensive than Fattah (maybe $2-4m).

Paveh and Shahed-136 costs seem reasonable


With 11 BMs against Al Assad airbase (no air-defence) how much damage did that do? Airbases are massive sprawling sites with hundreds of targets


Realistically Shahed-136 will be easily intercepted with >90% interception rate


Overall you vastly overestimate the destructive impact of a small 0.8m diameter Fattah with c. 400-500kg warhead

IMO the best use for Fattah is to target Israeli ABM sites to clear the way for Khorramshahr to cause the destruction you talk about. A salvo of 50-100 Fattah missiles to take out Israeli ABM radars (with saturation drone attacks to confuse their radars and complement the anti-ABM attack) followed by salvos of 3-5x Khorramshahr-4 (some with 80 submunitions each) per large target would have a much greater impact

And if the Fattah salvos don't work Iran can resort to saturation attacks of Shahab class missiles to deplete Israeli ABM interceptors before using Khorramshahr and Sejjil

In the end the conclusion is the same, Iran can impose substantial damage to Israel

With 11 BMs against Al Assad airbase (no air-defence) how much damage did that do? Airbases are massive sprawling sites with hundreds of targets

^^ Al Assad airbase is one of the largest airbases in the entire Middle East and during the Iranian attack it didn't have combat aircrafts in hardened shelters that could have been directly targeted by hypersonic missiles....but attack on that EMPTY airbase with 11 BMs caused 200 brain injuries on US personnel, even despite the fact US troops were in shelters during the attack

Realistically Shahed-136 will be easily intercepted with >90% interception rate

^^ Shahed-136 has low infrared signature, low radar signature, flies low, is small and difficult to intercept.....but even if there will be 90% interception rate -the cost of interceptors are much higher than the 20K$ cost of Shahed-136---so you can overwhelm enemy defenses by large quantities of cheap Shahed-136s

Overall you vastly overestimate the destructive impact of a small 0.8m diameter Fattah with c. 400-500kg warhead

^^ NATO standard hardened aircraft shelters can survive direct hit by 220kg bomb and they will be destroyed by 500kg HGV impacting at Mach 15.

The key here is 5m precision that was unavailable some 6 years ago.

 

[American College Student]

Iranian Ballistic Missiles versus Israeli Ballistic missiles as well as the US "Tomahawk" Missiles are all show off capabilities "boutique" weapons. A real war US vs Iran would look much more like whats happening In Ukraine; An artillery war bolstered by Mobile Artillery and Missiles systems. Armored Concentrations would mainly be employed for large-scale offensives and depending on How far into the future such a war is Mechanized inf walkers would be used in urban and mountainous where Traditional armored vehicles are impractical (these tactics would be particularly used by the American side).

 

[Philosopher]

@GWXP

Your price for the Fattah is too high as If I recall correctly Hajizadeh did give a number for the cost of missiles like `zolfaqar like system a few years back and it was in the six figure range. Other members may still have the link to his statement. Fattah will most probably be more expensive, although that's not necessary guaranteed. Remember the Raad-500 missile is apparently 50% the cost of Fateh-110 but with more capabilities. It really depends on various factors. For the sake of discussion we can assume it will be more expensive, but certainly lower than what you estimated.

Regarding the strikes, Iran will not be using the Fattah as its main work horse. The purpose of Fattah will be to directly destroy the enemies' air defence hardware. Once their missile defence capabilities have become depleted, this will allow continuous barrage of relatively inexpensive liquid fuel systems such Rezvan and related systems and more advanced systems like Emad. The first stage of Iranian strike will certainly comprise of a mix barrage of Fattah- Khoramshahr-4 like systems and many older and cheaper system to help deplete the enemies missile defence capabilities. You don't necessarily need to completely destroy all of the enemies sites, some you can get away with taking out of commission initially and these can be later destroyed fully if needed. Iran has already determine these targets from years ago and has missile pointing at them.

 

[Foinikas]

You guys are laughing at my post,but I wonder,you think that Iran could nuke or even destroy Israel's infastracture completely and the Western world not do anything about it? And if they do,that you can defend against nuclear strikes?

Why are you laughing? You think that Iran has the power to fight half the world in a conventional or unconventional war?

 

[Messerschmitt]

Why are you laughing? You think that Iran has the power to fight half the world in a conventional or unconventional war?

Why would Iran have to fight half of the world in the first place? Seems like a pretty far-fetched scenario.

 

[Foinikas]

Why would Iran have to fight half of the world in the first place? Seems like a pretty far-fetched scenario.

If Iran bombed Israel in the way a member described in a post above,to the point of destroy the Israeli military installations and civilian infastracture,that would make Iran a priority for a big part of the Western world to take action. the Americans would quickly gather an alliance to bomb Iran to pieces.