In August 2004 and again in October 2004 Iran carried out additional successful tests of the Shahab 3, following which Tehran announced that a new, advanced version of the missile had been developed with a range of 2,000 km. This was first displayed publicly in Tehran at the Holy Defence week traditional military parade in 2004 and featured a triconic or 'baby-bottle' warhead and smaller fins.
At the following year's parade in September 2005, two of the new 'baby-bottle' Shahab 3 missiles were displayed, although observers noticed certain differences between the two, leading Western analysts to conclude that Iran had developed two totally new variants of the Shahab 3 missile.
The first 'baby-bottle' variant is about the same length as the basic Shahab 3. Assessed to have a maximum range of 2,000 km with a warhead of less than 700 kg, this variant features smaller 'clipped' rear fins. This is assumed to take account of the change in the centre of gravity incurred by the new missile configuration. The second variant appears to be about a metre shorter, with larger fins and a range estimated at less than 1,500 km.
According to a Western diplomatic source, the triconic warhead variant actually indicates a totally new missile.
"This [warhead] cannot be mounted on a basic or extended-range Shahab 3 because of the major internal configuration changes, changes in the warhead frame, centre of gravity of the warhead and differences in aerodynamic characteristics,ââ¬Â the source noted. ââ¬ÅThe stability of the missile depends on the centre of pressure and centre of gravity - these have to be configured for stability. You can't just swap the warhead."
If Iran were to develop and manufacture a military nuclear capability, the advanced triconic Shahab 3 would likely be the preferred delivery vehicle for targets beyond its immediate borders.
Western sources claim that the Shahid Hammat Industrial Group, which is responsible for developing liquid propellants for Iran's missile programmes, is currently running a programme to develop a totally different missile with a range of 4,000-5,000 km (depending on payload).
Dubbed 'Project Koussar', this is based on the development of a reverse-engineered RD-216 engine, probably acquired from Russia in the late 1990s. The engine powered Russia's (now obsolete) SS-5 'Skean' (R-14/8K65) intermediate-range ballistic missiles and SL-8 Cosmos satellite launch vehicles. While the status of this programme remains unknown, but is believed to be at the preliminary design review stage, the source said that Iran is making progress in reverse engineering the RD-216 engine. It is, however, unclear as to what strategic benefits Tehran would acquire with this range of capability.
